Team Spotlight: Los Angeles Dodgers

Heltonfan · 11-30-2007, 10:33 AM

I’ve ripped into Ned Colletti more times than I can remember. No need to do that again; let’s just note that the man is utterly incompetent and move on.

The ’08 Dodgers, thanks to a combination of a high payroll and a great farm system, should be strong contenders.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +28
Bullpen: +26
Lineup: -16
Bench: +1
Defense: -2
W-L record: 84-78

Rotation

Penny 3.64
Lowe 3.99
Billingsley 4.00
Schmidt 4.28
Hendrickson 4.49

This group right here is why the Dodgers are such a scary team. Even as projected, this is one of the better rotations in the league… and it has the potential to blow the projections out of the water. Penny had a 3.16 ERC this year. Lowe, 3.50. Billingsley, 3.55. All are getting hammered in the projections because their ’05-’06 numbers aren’t up to that level (and Lowe is getting hammered for age). I’d be surprised if at least one of the three didn’t beat their projection by a fair margin.

And then there’s Jason Schmidt, whose projection is getting dragged down big-time by the combination of his age and the dreadful 26 innings he threw before going on the DL this year. Of course, Schmidt could go either way – it’s very possible that his health will prevent him from reaching even the mediocre projection I have for him – but again, there’s plenty of upside there.

The Dodgers also have Hong-Chih Kuo, who projects at 4.03 as a starting pitcher. Kuo’s a health risk (coming off elbow surgery), and something of a performance risk (control problems), but his potential is enormous.

Esteban Loaiza is making $8 million, but he should be facing a real uphill battle to crack the rotation.

Bullpen

Saito 2.32
Broxton 2.62
Beimel 3.87
Houlton 4.54
Proctor 4.60
Meloan 4.14
Kuo 3.22

Not much to say here. Giving up Wilson Betemit for Proctor was inane. The Dodgers’ 1-2 punch in the late innings is unmatched, but they need depth.

Lineup

C: Martin 3.26 (.276, 3)
1B: Loney 1.39 (.272, -3)
2B: Kent 1.93 (.268, -5)
SS: Furcal 2.02 (.251, 1)
3B: Garciaparra -0.44 (.239, -9)
LF: Ethier 1.93 (.266, 1)
CF: Pierre 0.40 (.236, -2)
RF: Kemp 2.32 (.281, -4)

Lots of interesting things here. Loney’s mediocre projection might surprise you; it should surprise you less after you are reminded that he spent two months this year in AAA, where he hit just .279/.349/.382.

That Kent projection looks awfully pessimistic, doesn’t it? .268? He hasn’t been below .280 in recent memory. Here’s how it works: at Kent’s age, I figure that players lose 10 points of ABR per year (which works out to 6 runs or so over a full season of at-bats). So Kent’s .285 ABR this year translates to a .275 in 2008. His .280 ABR two years ago translates to a .260 in 2008. And his .299 three years ago translates to a .269. Hence, a .268 projection. It still looks weird to see a number that low next to Jeff Kent’s name, but that’s the logic behind it.

Nomar is toast. Period. He has no power, doesn’t walk, and is a terrible third baseman. Handing over the third base job to Andy LaRoche is an absolute must.

Juan Pierre didn’t disappoint in his first year with the Dodgers; he did exactly what he was projected to do. Only problem is that what he brings to the table is worth a couple million a year at the most.

Bench

Lieberthal .205
Hu .236
LaRoche .269
Abreu .237
Young .246

LaRoche had a .260 ABR this year, .264 last year. He’s ready, no question about it.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Play LaRoche, Ethier, and Kemp every day. Bring in a free agent outfielder (CF or corner guy, doesn’t matter; Kemp can play CF if needed) and make Pierre the highest-paid bench player in the game. Fukudome, Cameron, and Corey Patterson all make sense here. Bring in a decent bullpen arm or two.

And, most importantly, avoid the pitfalls of this winter’s market. Do not pay a king’s ransom for Santana or Cabrera. Do not go after comically overvalued commodities like Jones or Rowand. The Dodgers’ biggest challenge this winter will be managing not to shoot themselves in the foot.

11-30-2007, 10:33 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Team Spotlight: Los Angeles Dodgers I’ve ripped into Ned Colletti more times than I can remember. No need to do that again; let’s just note that the man is utterly incompetent and move on. The ’08 Dodgers, thanks to a combination of a high payroll and a great farm system, should be strong contenders. Summary Statistics Rotation: +28 Bullpen: +26 Lineup: -16 Bench: +1 Defense: -2 W-L record: 84-78 Rotation Penny 3.64 Lowe 3.99 Billingsley 4.00 Schmidt 4.28 Hendrickson 4.49 This group right here is why the Dodgers are such a scary team. Even as projected, this is one of the better rotations in the league… and it has the potential to blow the projections out of the water. Penny had a 3.16 ERC this year. Lowe, 3.50. Billingsley, 3.55. All are getting hammered in the projections because their ’05-’06 numbers aren’t up to that level (and Lowe is getting hammered for age). I’d be surprised if at least one of the three didn’t beat their projection by a fair margin. And then there’s Jason Schmidt, whose projection is getting dragged down big-time by the combination of his age and the dreadful 26 innings he threw before going on the DL this year. Of course, Schmidt could go either way – it’s very possible that his health will prevent him from reaching even the mediocre projection I have for him – but again, there’s plenty of upside there. The Dodgers also have Hong-Chih Kuo, who projects at 4.03 as a starting pitcher. Kuo’s a health risk (coming off elbow surgery), and something of a performance risk (control problems), but his potential is enormous. Esteban Loaiza is making $8 million, but he should be facing a real uphill battle to crack the rotation. Bullpen Saito 2.32 Broxton 2.62 Beimel 3.87 Houlton 4.54 Proctor 4.60 Meloan 4.14 Kuo 3.22 Not much to say here. Giving up Wilson Betemit for Proctor was inane. The Dodgers’ 1-2 punch in the late innings is unmatched, but they need depth. Lineup C: Martin 3.26 (.276, 3) 1B: Loney 1.39 (.272, -3) 2B: Kent 1.93 (.268, -5) SS: Furcal 2.02 (.251, 1) 3B: Garciaparra -0.44 (.239, -9) LF: Ethier 1.93 (.266, 1) CF: Pierre 0.40 (.236, -2) RF: Kemp 2.32 (.281, -4) Lots of interesting things here. Loney’s mediocre projection might surprise you; it should surprise you less after you are reminded that he spent two months this year in AAA, where he hit just .279/.349/.382. That Kent projection looks awfully pessimistic, doesn’t it? .268? He hasn’t been below .280 in recent memory. Here’s how it works: at Kent’s age, I figure that players lose 10 points of ABR per year (which works out to 6 runs or so over a full season of at-bats). So Kent’s .285 ABR this year translates to a .275 in 2008. His .280 ABR two years ago translates to a .260 in 2008. And his .299 three years ago translates to a .269. Hence, a .268 projection. It still looks weird to see a number that low next to Jeff Kent’s name, but that’s the logic behind it. Nomar is toast. Period. He has no power, doesn’t walk, and is a terrible third baseman. Handing over the third base job to Andy LaRoche is an absolute must. Juan Pierre didn’t disappoint in his first year with the Dodgers; he did exactly what he was projected to do. Only problem is that what he brings to the table is worth a couple million a year at the most. Bench Lieberthal .205 Hu .236 LaRoche .269 Abreu .237 Young .246 LaRoche had a .260 ABR this year, .264 last year. He’s ready, no question about it. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Play LaRoche, Ethier, and Kemp every day. Bring in a free agent outfielder (CF or corner guy, doesn’t matter; Kemp can play CF if needed) and make Pierre the highest-paid bench player in the game. Fukudome, Cameron, and Corey Patterson all make sense here. Bring in a decent bullpen arm or two. And, most importantly, avoid the pitfalls of this winter’s market. Do not pay a king’s ransom for Santana or Cabrera. Do not go after comically overvalued commodities like Jones or Rowand. The Dodgers’ biggest challenge this winter will be managing not to shoot themselves in the foot.