Team Spotlight: Kansas City Royals

Heltonfan · 11-21-2007, 12:40 AM

Dayton Moore’s rebuilding project is moving rather slowly. Gil Meche and Brian Bannister drastically exceeded expectations, but the offense was terrible, thanks to disappointing years from Gordon, Teahen, and DeJesus (and the decision to give Tony Pena the everyday job at SS). All told, the Royals ended up right where I had them projected to. 2008 looks like it will be more of the same; a slight improvement over ’07, but nowhere near enough to get people excited.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -33
Bullpen: +4
Lineup: -74
Bench: -9
Defense: +3
W-L record: 71-91

Rotation

Meche 3.98
Bannister 4.09
Greinke 4.15
De La Rosa 4.72
Davies 5.02

As you can see, the projection system is not a believer in Meche. Not that that’s any kind of surprise, of course. Bannister had a 4.07 FIP this year, so the projections basically see him repeating his ’07, but without the BABIP luck.

Bullpen

Soria 3.05
Peralta 3.56
Gobble 3.66
Hudson 3.80
Braun 3.85
Bale 4.11
Nunez 4.29

Not bad at all. That’s a substantial regression for Soria, and it still makes him one of the top 15 relievers in MLB; quite a Rule 5 find, to say the least.

Lineup

C: Buck 0.98 (.235, 1)
1B: Gload 0.99 (.266, -3)
2B: German 1.23 (.256, -5)
SS: Pena -0.68 (.208, 2)
3B: Gordon 2.40 (.271, -1)
LF: Brown 1.16 (.246, 6)
CF: DeJesus 2.11 (.257, 1)
RF: Teahen 2.26 (.277, -2)
DH: Butler 1.65 (.276)

Blech. That’s just a terrible offense. And those projections, as underwhelming as they are, would represent bounce-back seasons for Gordon, Brown, DeJesus, and Teahen.

Bench

Phillips .180
Shealy .244
Grudzielanek .228
Gathright .248

Remember when people thought Ryan Shealy was good? Fun times.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Sell. As Nate Silver said last month: “I don’t think there’s quite enough long-term talent here to make the Royals a legitimate contender in 2009 through 2011. Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar had disappointing seasons, and a team centered around those two plus Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Brian Bannister, David DeJesus, Gil Meche, and Joakim Soria is probably going to peak at about 78 wins.”

Nate's exactly right. The Royals have a long, long way to climb in order to threaten Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota. So the solution is to trade everyone who has more value now than they will two years from now. That means Meche, Bannister, Gobble, and Grudzielanek (DeJesus and Teahen as well, but I'd put those two on the Dontrelle plan, holding onto them for the time being in the hope that they start 2008 well and recover some of their trade value). This is a pretty obvious strategy.

Cironnu · 11-27-2007, 02:24 AM

Uhm, excuse me, but isn't it a little bit early for 2008 projections? The Royals haven't made a single significant transaction yet, and are likely to add several decent players this offseason, ie. they're in on a couple of pitchers from Japan, and are looking hard at picking up Jose Guillen or Andruw Jones for the outfield.

Regardless, you can forget that "sell everyone worth a darn now" crap. Those days are over in KC, thank God. We may not win in 2008 (we won't) but we won't sell out any hope of being even a decent team this year in the far flung hopes that we can pick up a kid or two that will be good in a few years. We've been doing that for the last fifteen years, and let me assure you that such plans pretty much always fail. You don't build a team by trading good players for prospects. You build a team by keeping your good players, and adding more good players. That's what Dayton Moore is doing. Again, thank God. You don't need to tell ANYONE in KC about "three year rebuilding plans." We've seen too many rebuilds and youth movements to buy that load of crap again.

bedir than average · 11-27-2007, 09:23 AM

Cironnu,
I have copied his projections over from the Rockies board to share. Often HeltonFan will stop by and comment. But in his overall thread he makes it clear that these are a way to evaluate team needs going into the Hot Stove League.

JMUplayer · 11-30-2007, 01:02 AM

Trading Dejesus -- He's never be more than a below average player.
There are several teams who need a CF.

Why hold on to a .280 hitter with 10 HR power very little speed and a average at BEST ON Base Percentage....

Jose Guillen would be a SMART pickup based on what you could get for the money.

11-21-2007, 12:40 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Team Spotlight: Kansas City Royals Dayton Moore’s rebuilding project is moving rather slowly. Gil Meche and Brian Bannister drastically exceeded expectations, but the offense was terrible, thanks to disappointing years from Gordon, Teahen, and DeJesus (and the decision to give Tony Pena the everyday job at SS). All told, the Royals ended up right where I had them projected to. 2008 looks like it will be more of the same; a slight improvement over ’07, but nowhere near enough to get people excited. Summary Statistics Rotation: -33 Bullpen: +4 Lineup: -74 Bench: -9 Defense: +3 W-L record: 71-91 Rotation Meche 3.98 Bannister 4.09 Greinke 4.15 De La Rosa 4.72 Davies 5.02 As you can see, the projection system is not a believer in Meche. Not that that’s any kind of surprise, of course. Bannister had a 4.07 FIP this year, so the projections basically see him repeating his ’07, but without the BABIP luck. Bullpen Soria 3.05 Peralta 3.56 Gobble 3.66 Hudson 3.80 Braun 3.85 Bale 4.11 Nunez 4.29 Not bad at all. That’s a substantial regression for Soria, and it still makes him one of the top 15 relievers in MLB; quite a Rule 5 find, to say the least. Lineup C: Buck 0.98 (.235, 1) 1B: Gload 0.99 (.266, -3) 2B: German 1.23 (.256, -5) SS: Pena -0.68 (.208, 2) 3B: Gordon 2.40 (.271, -1) LF: Brown 1.16 (.246, 6) CF: DeJesus 2.11 (.257, 1) RF: Teahen 2.26 (.277, -2) DH: Butler 1.65 (.276) Blech. That’s just a terrible offense. And those projections, as underwhelming as they are, would represent bounce-back seasons for Gordon, Brown, DeJesus, and Teahen. Bench Phillips .180 Shealy .244 Grudzielanek .228 Gathright .248 Remember when people thought Ryan Shealy was good? Fun times. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Sell. As Nate Silver said last month: “I don’t think there’s quite enough long-term talent here to make the Royals a legitimate contender in 2009 through 2011. Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar had disappointing seasons, and a team centered around those two plus Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Brian Bannister, David DeJesus, Gil Meche, and Joakim Soria is probably going to peak at about 78 wins.” Nate's exactly right. The Royals have a long, long way to climb in order to threaten Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota. So the solution is to trade everyone who has more value now than they will two years from now. That means Meche, Bannister, Gobble, and Grudzielanek (DeJesus and Teahen as well, but I'd put those two on the Dontrelle plan, holding onto them for the time being in the hope that they start 2008 well and recover some of their trade value). This is a pretty obvious strategy.

11-27-2007, 02:24 AM	#2 (permalink)
Cironnu Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 39	Uhm, excuse me, but isn't it a little bit early for 2008 projections? The Royals haven't made a single significant transaction yet, and are likely to add several decent players this offseason, ie. they're in on a couple of pitchers from Japan, and are looking hard at picking up Jose Guillen or Andruw Jones for the outfield. Regardless, you can forget that "sell everyone worth a darn now" crap. Those days are over in KC, thank God. We may not win in 2008 (we won't) but we won't sell out any hope of being even a decent team this year in the far flung hopes that we can pick up a kid or two that will be good in a few years. We've been doing that for the last fifteen years, and let me assure you that such plans pretty much always fail. You don't build a team by trading good players for prospects. You build a team by keeping your good players, and adding more good players. That's what Dayton Moore is doing. Again, thank God. You don't need to tell ANYONE in KC about "three year rebuilding plans." We've seen too many rebuilds and youth movements to buy that load of crap again. __________________ In Dayton We Trust.

11-27-2007, 09:23 AM	#3 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,256	Cironnu, I have copied his projections over from the Rockies board to share. Often HeltonFan will stop by and comment. But in his overall thread he makes it clear that these are a way to evaluate team needs going into the Hot Stove League. __________________ US Men's National Team World Cup Qualifying \| Democracy in Sports Meets My First Campaign "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

11-30-2007, 01:02 AM	#4 (permalink)
JMUplayer Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 204	The move to make is.... Trading Dejesus -- He's never be more than a below average player. There are several teams who need a CF. Why hold on to a .280 hitter with 10 HR power very little speed and a average at BEST ON Base Percentage.... Jose Guillen would be a SMART pickup based on what you could get for the money.