Team Spotlight: Houston Astros

Heltonfan · 11-28-2007, 12:04 AM

We continue our tour of hopeless organizations with the Astros.

I ranked Tim Purpura as the worst GM in baseball last spring, after the Carlos Lee signing and the Jennings trade, which combined to absolutely destroy any chance the team had of contending in 2008-2009 (given the opportunity cost of the Lee signing, that is). Purpura is gone now, and Ed Wade, while he isn’t off to a particularly promising start, cannot possibly be any worse.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -45
Bullpen: -15
Lineup: -44
Bench: -7
Defense: -7
W-L record: 69-93

Rotation

Oswalt 3.53
Rodriguez 4.60
Sampson 5.18
Backe 5.21
Patton 5.32

Roy Oswalt had a very disappointing 2007 season. It went unnoticed, because he lucked his way into a 3.18 ERA, but Oswalt’s K and BB rates both declined significantly from their ’05-06 levels. His K rate in 2007 was actually a tick below league average. He’s still extremely valuable, due to his durability, control, and ability to keep the ball in the park, but where he was a top-10 pitcher in all of MLB, he now probably doesn’t crack the top 20.

The projection system doesn’t think that Wandy Rodriguez’s breakout season (158/62 K/BB) was for real. Much of that is due to the fact that he’s a little old to be having a breakout year, and much of it is due to just how awful he was prior to 2007. The projection system doesn’t dock him for being named “Wandy”, but perhaps it should.

Woody Williams projects at 5.55, which is why he’s not listed in the front five.

Chris Sampson had a 4.59 ERA this year, but with normal luck, it would have been almost a run higher than that. He struck out 51 batters in 122 innings. If you have that kind of K rate, you’re either Aaron Cook or replacement level. Sampson is the latter.

Anyway, it goes without saying that this rotation is an embarrassment, and is the primary reason why the Astros are going absolutely nowhere.

Bullpen

Qualls 3.89
Geary 4.01
Villarreal 4.20
Borkowski 4.30
Nieve 4.35
Brocail 4.40
Albers 4.76

Nieve and Albers are both starting pitchers. The Astros’ pitching staff is so thin that I chose to run starter-reliever conversions on those two rather than filling out the projected bullpen with the best remaining relievers in the organization (who have projections in the mid-5.00s). And note, of course, that even after the starter-reliever conversions, those guys still suck (I use 4.50 as replacement level for relievers).

So, yeah, the bullpen is just as thin as the rotation. Amazing.

Lineup

C: Towles 0.73 (.239, -4)
1B: Berkman 3.25 (.307, -6)
2B: Blum 0.11 (.224, 5)
SS: Everett -0.03 (.201, 13)
3B: Wigginton 0.65 (.263, -13)
LF: Lee 1.82 (.282, -9)
CF: Bourn 0.19 (.241, -7)
RF: Pence 3.23 (.280, 5)

Adam Everett is the best defensive player on the planet, and yet he’s a bad enough hitter that it doesn’t matter. I love the symmetry of that left side of the infield; Everett is the best defensive SS in the game, Wigginton is the worst 3B, and they offset each other perfectly.

That -9 projection for Carlos Lee’s defense, as awful as it is, is actually considerably more generous than you’d get using any other numbers (UZR had him at like -20; I think the BIS data gave a similar result). I’m confident in the -9; I think the other systems might be struggling with the short LF wall at the Juice Box (works just like the Green Monster). But the important thing about that -9, of course, is that it makes Lee a below-average player overall. Just a mind-bogglingly awful contract. I’ve long since run out of words to express my schadenfreude.

Bench

Ausmus .194
Burke .230
Costanzo .232
Scott .283
Abercrombie .227

Notice anything out of place here? Well, aside from Ausmus, who is just out of place in the major leagues? Yep, it’s Luke Scott. Who, despite being arguably the best position player on the team (he, Berkman, and Pence are in a virtual dead heat), has been relegated to bench status to the presence of Lee and the acquisition of the (replacement-level) Michael Bourn. Hell of an organization they’re running there.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: This is the worst team in baseball. The Astros could add Johan Santana, Milton Bradley, and Eric Gagne, and they’d still only win 77 games. So, obviously, a big free agent signing should be out of the question.

Now is a great time to trade Oswalt. His contract ($74 million over the next five years, assuming that the 2012 team option is picked up) is quite reasonable when compared with the likely $11 million a year or so that vastly inferior starters are now getting. Plus, of course, he’s Roy Oswalt, a guy who everyone in baseball thinks of an ace. But, of course, as discussed above, his 2007 performance should provide some real reason for concern; viewing him as an ace going forward is a mistake (in other words, he’s overrated).

Likewise, Lance Berkman’s contract ($45.5 million through 2010) is not a problem. But if you trade Oswalt, holding onto Berkman doesn’t make much sense. He should have plenty of value, though; I could see the Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Yankees and Indians all showing interest.

Which leaves us with one great remaining hurdle: unloading Carlos Lee. It may not be possible, but they have to try. If they package him with a prospect (maybe someone acquired for Berkman or Oswalt), they might be able to get someone to swallow almost the entire contract.

There is one giant problem with this idea: all of these guys have no-trade clauses.
But you have to figure that, given the futility of the organization, there’s a reasonable chance of getting them to agree to deals.

Note that what I’m advocating here, while similar in appearance to the kind of fire sale I recommended for the Mariners and Orioles, isn’t really the same thing. In the Mariners and Orioles’ cases, they’ve got plenty of marketable assets with contracts that expire before the team is likely to be competitive. In the Astros’ case, I’m suggesting that they unload three long-term contracts. One (Oswalt) because, as Branch Rickey said, it’s better to trade a player a year early than a year late, and there are some real warning signs in Oswalt’s 2007 performance. One (Lee) because he’s a mediocre player with a superstar’s contract. And one (Berkman) simply because he’s bound to have more value to a contending team than he does to the Astros, particularly an Astros team without Oswalt and Lee.

And, obviously, it’s crucial that the Astros start drafting well. Their farm system is pretty much devoid of high-ceiling players.

11-28-2007, 12:04 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: Houston Astros We continue our tour of hopeless organizations with the Astros. I ranked Tim Purpura as the worst GM in baseball last spring, after the Carlos Lee signing and the Jennings trade, which combined to absolutely destroy any chance the team had of contending in 2008-2009 (given the opportunity cost of the Lee signing, that is). Purpura is gone now, and Ed Wade, while he isn’t off to a particularly promising start, cannot possibly be any worse. Summary Statistics Rotation: -45 Bullpen: -15 Lineup: -44 Bench: -7 Defense: -7 W-L record: 69-93 Rotation Oswalt 3.53 Rodriguez 4.60 Sampson 5.18 Backe 5.21 Patton 5.32 Roy Oswalt had a very disappointing 2007 season. It went unnoticed, because he lucked his way into a 3.18 ERA, but Oswalt’s K and BB rates both declined significantly from their ’05-06 levels. His K rate in 2007 was actually a tick below league average. He’s still extremely valuable, due to his durability, control, and ability to keep the ball in the park, but where he was a top-10 pitcher in all of MLB, he now probably doesn’t crack the top 20. The projection system doesn’t think that Wandy Rodriguez’s breakout season (158/62 K/BB) was for real. Much of that is due to the fact that he’s a little old to be having a breakout year, and much of it is due to just how awful he was prior to 2007. The projection system doesn’t dock him for being named “Wandy”, but perhaps it should. Woody Williams projects at 5.55, which is why he’s not listed in the front five. Chris Sampson had a 4.59 ERA this year, but with normal luck, it would have been almost a run higher than that. He struck out 51 batters in 122 innings. If you have that kind of K rate, you’re either Aaron Cook or replacement level. Sampson is the latter. Anyway, it goes without saying that this rotation is an embarrassment, and is the primary reason why the Astros are going absolutely nowhere. Bullpen Qualls 3.89 Geary 4.01 Villarreal 4.20 Borkowski 4.30 Nieve 4.35 Brocail 4.40 Albers 4.76 Nieve and Albers are both starting pitchers. The Astros’ pitching staff is so thin that I chose to run starter-reliever conversions on those two rather than filling out the projected bullpen with the best remaining relievers in the organization (who have projections in the mid-5.00s). And note, of course, that even after the starter-reliever conversions, those guys still suck (I use 4.50 as replacement level for relievers). So, yeah, the bullpen is just as thin as the rotation. Amazing. Lineup C: Towles 0.73 (.239, -4) 1B: Berkman 3.25 (.307, -6) 2B: Blum 0.11 (.224, 5) SS: Everett -0.03 (.201, 13) 3B: Wigginton 0.65 (.263, -13) LF: Lee 1.82 (.282, -9) CF: Bourn 0.19 (.241, -7) RF: Pence 3.23 (.280, 5) Adam Everett is the best defensive player on the planet, and yet he’s a bad enough hitter that it doesn’t matter. I love the symmetry of that left side of the infield; Everett is the best defensive SS in the game, Wigginton is the worst 3B, and they offset each other perfectly. That -9 projection for Carlos Lee’s defense, as awful as it is, is actually considerably more generous than you’d get using any other numbers (UZR had him at like -20; I think the BIS data gave a similar result). I’m confident in the -9; I think the other systems might be struggling with the short LF wall at the Juice Box (works just like the Green Monster). But the important thing about that -9, of course, is that it makes Lee a below-average player overall. Just a mind-bogglingly awful contract. I’ve long since run out of words to express my schadenfreude. Bench Ausmus .194 Burke .230 Costanzo .232 Scott .283 Abercrombie .227 Notice anything out of place here? Well, aside from Ausmus, who is just out of place in the major leagues? Yep, it’s Luke Scott. Who, despite being arguably the best position player on the team (he, Berkman, and Pence are in a virtual dead heat), has been relegated to bench status to the presence of Lee and the acquisition of the (replacement-level) Michael Bourn. Hell of an organization they’re running there. If I Were in Charge, I Would: This is the worst team in baseball. The Astros could add Johan Santana, Milton Bradley, and Eric Gagne, and they’d still only win 77 games. So, obviously, a big free agent signing should be out of the question. Now is a great time to trade Oswalt. His contract ($74 million over the next five years, assuming that the 2012 team option is picked up) is quite reasonable when compared with the likely $11 million a year or so that vastly inferior starters are now getting. Plus, of course, he’s Roy Oswalt, a guy who everyone in baseball thinks of an ace. But, of course, as discussed above, his 2007 performance should provide some real reason for concern; viewing him as an ace going forward is a mistake (in other words, he’s overrated). Likewise, Lance Berkman’s contract ($45.5 million through 2010) is not a problem. But if you trade Oswalt, holding onto Berkman doesn’t make much sense. He should have plenty of value, though; I could see the Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Yankees and Indians all showing interest. Which leaves us with one great remaining hurdle: unloading Carlos Lee. It may not be possible, but they have to try. If they package him with a prospect (maybe someone acquired for Berkman or Oswalt), they might be able to get someone to swallow almost the entire contract. There is one giant problem with this idea: all of these guys have no-trade clauses. But you have to figure that, given the futility of the organization, there’s a reasonable chance of getting them to agree to deals. Note that what I’m advocating here, while similar in appearance to the kind of fire sale I recommended for the Mariners and Orioles, isn’t really the same thing. In the Mariners and Orioles’ cases, they’ve got plenty of marketable assets with contracts that expire before the team is likely to be competitive. In the Astros’ case, I’m suggesting that they unload three long-term contracts. One (Oswalt) because, as Branch Rickey said, it’s better to trade a player a year early than a year late, and there are some real warning signs in Oswalt’s 2007 performance. One (Lee) because he’s a mediocre player with a superstar’s contract. And one (Berkman) simply because he’s bound to have more value to a contending team than he does to the Astros, particularly an Astros team without Oswalt and Lee. And, obviously, it’s crucial that the Astros start drafting well. Their farm system is pretty much devoid of high-ceiling players.