Team Spotlight: Florida Marlins

Heltonfan · 11-13-2007, 01:14 AM

The Marlins are in a very tough spot. Short of signing A-Rod, there’s virtually no way for them to finish higher than third in the NL East.

Summary Statistics
Rotation -27
Bullpen -1
Lineup +44
Bench +11
Defense -27

Rotation

Willis 4.29
Mitre 4.34
Olsen 4.63
Sanchez 4.54
Nolasco 5.07

Sadly enough, that constitutes a big bounce-back season for Dontrelle. He was absolutely horrid this year. Ditto Scott Olsen.

Bullpen

Gregg 3.84
Tankersley 3.74
Miller 3.89
Lindstrom 3.92
Owens 4.18
Gardner 4.49
Pinto 4.61

Here’s how bad things were for the ’07 Marlins: Lee Gardner was their most valuable pitcher. Who the hell is Lee Gardner, you ask? My point exactly. Gardner had a fine season, but, like Matt Herges for the Rockies, has a rotten track record and shouldn’t be counted on for anything in the future.

That Lindstrom/Owens for Jason Vargas trade is looking very good now. Lindstrom and his triple-digit fastball had a very nice rookie season... he’s probably the Marlins’ long-term closer.

Lineup

C: Olivo -0.12 (.215, 1)
1B: Jacobs 1.04 (.266, -3)
2B: Uggla 1.01 (.259, -10)
SS: Ramirez 3.98 (.305, -14)
3B: Cabrera 5.17 (.335, -11)
LF: Willingham 2.00 (.278, -4)
CF: Amezaga 0.05 (.228, 2)
RF: Hermida 3.49 (.288, 5)

Look at those defensive projections in the infield. Uggla, Hanley, and Cabrera are expected to cost the Marlins 35 runs next year between the three of them. That’s huge… and as bad as it is, it would be a big improvement over what they did in ’07 (52 runs below average).

Hanley’s ABR projection has him splitting the difference between his rookie year and his unbelievable 2007 performance. I think that sounds about right.

Bench

Treanor .216
Wood .195
Ross .266
De Aza .226
Carroll .220

That’s about as bad as it gets. This is a team with absolutely no offensive depth. Cody Ross should be starting in CF ahead of Amezaga; he’s probably a few runs below average defensively, but he’s a far better hitter. Think Ross = Spilborghs and Amezaga = Sullivan.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Stand pat, with the exception of a Cabrera trade. You want a more interesting answer? Find a more interesting team. The Marlins can’t upgrade their ’08 roster via trade, because they have no depth to trade from, either at the big league level or below. They can’t upgrade significantly via free agency, because none of the starting pitchers available are above average, they’re not getting A-Rod, and aside from Fukudome (who has absolutely no reason to come to south Florida), there isn’t a CF out there who would be worth his asking price and better than Cody Ross. So contending next year is pretty much out of the question.

And they can’t accomplish much by selling off their assets, either. Willis went 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA; how much trade value can he really have? I’d put him on the Jason Bay plan, hoping that he can recover some value with a strong start and then looking to deal him.

As for Cabrera... I figure he’ll be worth 10.4 WAR over the next two years. He’ll probably make around $25 million over those two years in arbitration… at $5 million per win, that makes him a $27 million asset (10.4 x 5 – 25). If they can get even a semi-elite pre-arbitration starting pitcher for him – say, Ian Kennedy – they’d be doing alright. If Kennedy meets his projections, he’ll be worth 15.6 WAR over the next six years, and he’ll probably make somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million. So the financial commitments (to Kennedy and Cabrera) are equal; the differences are that Kennedy contributes five more wins total, Cabrera contributes five more wins over the next two years, and Cabrera would bring them draft picks in 2010. Given the slim chances of the Marlins making the playoffs next year, I’d say that they more or less break even in that deal. And, needless to say, I’d be shocked if Ian Kennedy is the most that Cabrera can bring them.

11-13-2007, 01:14 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: Florida Marlins The Marlins are in a very tough spot. Short of signing A-Rod, there’s virtually no way for them to finish higher than third in the NL East. Summary Statistics Rotation -27 Bullpen -1 Lineup +44 Bench +11 Defense -27 Rotation Willis 4.29 Mitre 4.34 Olsen 4.63 Sanchez 4.54 Nolasco 5.07 Sadly enough, that constitutes a big bounce-back season for Dontrelle. He was absolutely horrid this year. Ditto Scott Olsen. Bullpen Gregg 3.84 Tankersley 3.74 Miller 3.89 Lindstrom 3.92 Owens 4.18 Gardner 4.49 Pinto 4.61 Here’s how bad things were for the ’07 Marlins: Lee Gardner was their most valuable pitcher. Who the hell is Lee Gardner, you ask? My point exactly. Gardner had a fine season, but, like Matt Herges for the Rockies, has a rotten track record and shouldn’t be counted on for anything in the future. That Lindstrom/Owens for Jason Vargas trade is looking very good now. Lindstrom and his triple-digit fastball had a very nice rookie season... he’s probably the Marlins’ long-term closer. Lineup C: Olivo -0.12 (.215, 1) 1B: Jacobs 1.04 (.266, -3) 2B: Uggla 1.01 (.259, -10) SS: Ramirez 3.98 (.305, -14) 3B: Cabrera 5.17 (.335, -11) LF: Willingham 2.00 (.278, -4) CF: Amezaga 0.05 (.228, 2) RF: Hermida 3.49 (.288, 5) Look at those defensive projections in the infield. Uggla, Hanley, and Cabrera are expected to cost the Marlins 35 runs next year between the three of them. That’s huge… and as bad as it is, it would be a big improvement over what they did in ’07 (52 runs below average). Hanley’s ABR projection has him splitting the difference between his rookie year and his unbelievable 2007 performance. I think that sounds about right. Bench Treanor .216 Wood .195 Ross .266 De Aza .226 Carroll .220 That’s about as bad as it gets. This is a team with absolutely no offensive depth. Cody Ross should be starting in CF ahead of Amezaga; he’s probably a few runs below average defensively, but he’s a far better hitter. Think Ross = Spilborghs and Amezaga = Sullivan. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Stand pat, with the exception of a Cabrera trade. You want a more interesting answer? Find a more interesting team. The Marlins can’t upgrade their ’08 roster via trade, because they have no depth to trade from, either at the big league level or below. They can’t upgrade significantly via free agency, because none of the starting pitchers available are above average, they’re not getting A-Rod, and aside from Fukudome (who has absolutely no reason to come to south Florida), there isn’t a CF out there who would be worth his asking price and better than Cody Ross. So contending next year is pretty much out of the question. And they can’t accomplish much by selling off their assets, either. Willis went 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA; how much trade value can he really have? I’d put him on the Jason Bay plan, hoping that he can recover some value with a strong start and then looking to deal him. As for Cabrera... I figure he’ll be worth 10.4 WAR over the next two years. He’ll probably make around $25 million over those two years in arbitration… at $5 million per win, that makes him a $27 million asset (10.4 x 5 – 25). If they can get even a semi-elite pre-arbitration starting pitcher for him – say, Ian Kennedy – they’d be doing alright. If Kennedy meets his projections, he’ll be worth 15.6 WAR over the next six years, and he’ll probably make somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 million. So the financial commitments (to Kennedy and Cabrera) are equal; the differences are that Kennedy contributes five more wins total, Cabrera contributes five more wins over the next two years, and Cabrera would bring them draft picks in 2010. Given the slim chances of the Marlins making the playoffs next year, I’d say that they more or less break even in that deal. And, needless to say, I’d be shocked if Ian Kennedy is the most that Cabrera can bring them.