CBS SportsLine's Fantasy Guide for 2007

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Whether it's exchanging commodities or playing Fantasy Baseball, you've heard the money phrase "Buy low and sell high." That might sound nice and all, but unless you know exactly how to do it, it's a pretty cheap cliché that renders nothing.

Until you buy what we're selling.

We here at CBS SportsLine, in addition to offering the best Fantasy games and products in the universe, pay very close attention to helping you win. Whether you're playing against your friends or taking some "units" from people you could care less about, we can help you.

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This just in: there are officially more Fantasy Baseball players that use a Head-to-Head scoring system than those that use the traditional Rotisserie style.

If Daniel Okrent were dead, he'd roll over in his grave. (Okrent is credited with creating Rotisserie Baseball in 1980.)

Despite the popularity of Rotisserie-style ball that has finally given an outlet to number-crunchers and stat-freaks alike, Fantasy Football has birthed a secondary group of Fantasy Baseball players that feel the need for weekly combat, rather than the long slow climb up 10 sets of categories. Fantasy Football owners use Head-to-Head baseball to get through the long gridiron offseason.

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I like steak. Who doesn't like steak? I mean, even a vegetarian probably likes steak -- just not the means to get a steak.

Sometimes, though, I like to eat a hamburger. It's essentially the same animal, with the same heat applied to it, and it all ends up in the same place (my stomach) through the same porthole (my mouth). But it's still different.

That's how an auction is. It's still the same Fantasy Baseball league once the seasons starts. You still need to have a relatively good grasp of MLB players and you still need 8-14 owners to get together for the dispersal of said players.

But an auction has so much more to offer when considering different strategies to dominate your league.

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The past affects the future

The power hitting numbers dipped from 2004 to 2005, with 37 batters hitting 30 or more homers in '04 down to 27 batters hitting over 30 in '05. That number rebounded in a big way last season, when 34 batters hit 30 homers and two more hit 40 or more homers than the previous year. There were also more runs scored overall last year than in '05, so the initial thoughts that the crackdown on steroid abuse would curtail scoring has been debunked -- for now at least.

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Finally.

You've waited months. You've endured all of the basketball and hockey you can take. You wisely decided not to get involved in that Fantasy Dominican Winter League and you are about to be rewarded with the greatest day of the year for a Fantasy Baseballer: Draft Day.

Now that the day is here, however, you'll have to decide which way you want to go with your draft. If you are in a Rotisserie league, how long do you plan on waiting to pick your first closer? Are you going to gamble on some rookie pitchers, since they probably helped whoever won your championship last season? Have you correctly assessed the risk/reward of some players coming back from injury? Is it true you can outrun an alligator if you run in a zig-zag?

Forget all of those questions. What do you do with your first-round pick!?!

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It never fails. In the early months of the year, you check out some Fantasy sites or magazines and you go straight to the mock draft to see where a group of writers picked a certain player. After scanning the draft, you find your guy all the way down in the 14th round and you shake your head. How can they let your guy last that late?

Then you look at another mock draft and you find that same player selected in the sixth round. Now you don't know what to believe. You have to understand that magazine drafts are usually done in December, right after the winter meetings and before many players sign free-agent contracts. Then there are some drafts online that happen within spring training, so obviously they are more up-to-date.

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Here is a homework assignment for you: Compare the roster of your league's 2006 champion to our 2007 rankings.

The person who won your league has a team that looks like he had extra picks in the early rounds. Or some serious insider trading tips.

If you are a veteran of Fantasy Baseball, you have done that exercise before, and you know there is no way you or anyone else will be able to assemble that same team again this spring. Those players will be scattered about your league like a twisted Rubik's Cube.

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You have digested our suggestions on the 27-year-old hitters to target, but hitting is just half the battle in baseball. To find the sleeper and breakthrough pitchers, we suggest something even more important than mere age.

Experience.

Yes, man's physiological peak is widely accepted to be age 27, but pitchers are a different breed in Fantasy. And we have a few of our pet peeves with them:

1) Pitchers are schizophrenic, offering varying return rates from Draft Day.
2) Getting big-league hitters out is more art, something not measurable, than skill.
3) Over-hyped young arms are great picks ... three years from now.

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What's the difference between a breakout player and a sleeper? That's like saying what's the difference between a hamster and a gerbil? Great Britain and the United Kingdom?

Every season, we give you our list of possible breakout and sleeper candidates, but it's important to distinguish between the two -- because they are different.

The way we categorize it is that a breakout is a player that goes from good to great, and a sleeper is one that goes from average to good.

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Last year, I wrote that Alex Rodriguez was no longer worth the No. 1 overall pick. I also said that Barry Bonds' days as a 35-plus home run hitter are over. According to me, Mark Buehrle, Todd Helton, Brad Lidge and Mark Prior were all 2006 busts.

Granted, I wrote all of that in December, well after the season ended, but still!

Now my editor is asking me to write about busts before they happen. Sheesh!

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Let's give ourselves, and Delmon Young, a mulligan.

We have to admit, we didn't completely nail it last year. Our No. 1 rookie flew off the bat handle -- literally -- and failed to deliver on his promise. He spent a bulk of the first half on a Triple-A suspension for throwing a bat at an umpire and didn't get called up until September.

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You have seen how this writer values the Rookie of the Year candidates in his Top 25 rookies to target on Draft Day and Top 100 rookies/prospects for 2007.

Here is a cumulative set of other opinions.

Here we outline the rookies drafted in CBS SportsLine's NL-only and AL-only analysts league drafts this January (24-25). These lists will give you a gauge on when to take a chance on a rookie or which long-term keepers to consider this spring.

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We have cobbled together the Top 100 Fantasy Baseball rookies to target on Draft Day. But we have to warn you: It is not a top prospects list, which projects long-term potential.

Instead, it is a ranking of Draft Day value for yearly leagues -- assuming you're drafting in March and don't have keepers. We take into account talent, opportunity and proximity to having an impact this year alone, giving you options on fliers to take in deeper leagues on Draft Day.

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Our staff of Fantasy Baseball experts has compiled the top 300 players to help you best prepare for your upcoming draft. These rankings will change throughout the spring based on news, injuries, trends, etc ...

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CBS SportsLine hosted its annual AL-only Analysts League on Jan. 24. You can come back to review the picks later this spring and throughout the 2007 season.

This league is a standard 5x5 Rotisserie league with 23-man active rosters and seven reserves. This is meant to be a guide of how your league might draft in March, but things are sure to change between late January and then.

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