CBS SportsLine's Fantasy Guide for 2007

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Since the current front office took over, the Reds have transformed from a slug-it-out club to one focused on pitching and defense. The change moved them close to competing last year.

This year will be the true litmus test.

New aces Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have reached their prime for Fantasy owners, while a rebuilt bullpen is at least deep. Additionally, shortstop signee Alex Gonzalez is a Gold Glove upgrade up the middle -- plus, he has low-end pop for his position. The offense shouldn't be hurting too much with potential Fantasy MVP-breakout candidate Adam Dunn having turned 27.

But, if we're still talking about the Reds missing the bats of Austin Kearns, 27, and Felipe Lopez, this season could turn into yet another disaster.

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The Indians had playoff hopes last season after a surprisingly strong 2005 campaign in which they won 94 games. But the pitching staff fell from the best in the AL in '05 with a 3.61 staff ERA to a mediocre 4.41 ERA in '06.

The offense didn't disappoint, however, as Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore led them to an 80-run increase from '05 to '06, making them the second-most prolific offense in the majors behind the Bronx Bombers. They also got a little younger this season, with Josh Barfield and Andy Marte taking over at second and third base respectively for Ronnie Belliard and Aaron Boone.

The pitching staff has some young arms that could pay big dividends by midseason. Jeremy Sowers is already entrenched in the rotation, but Fausto Carmona and Adam Miller aren't too far behind.

C.C. Sabathia returns as their ace and has been a plump model of consistency. He has thrown over 190 innings in each of the past five seasons and last year, he hit career-bests in strikeouts (172) and ERA (3.22).

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Unfortunately for Houston, this spring will be more about who isn't in camp than who actually is.

Roger Clemens has the Astros hangin' again and this time his best buddy isn't in town to convince him to jump on the bandwagon in midseason. It's unfair to offseason signee Carlos Lee, really.

El Caballo (spanish for "the horse") fits perfectly in Houston's homer park -- especially with that short left-field porch -- and hitting behind Lance Berkman should leave him with ample RBI opportunities. Lee no longer will be motivated by the allure of the almighty dollar, but he has been nothing more than a masher in his career.

In real baseball terms, the Astros can compete in the NL Central, but they need a number of things to go right -- particularly in the back end of their mostly inexperienced rotation.

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There wasn't a bigger story in the American League last season than the Tigers' sudden ascension into the upper echelon. From 1996-2005, Detroit lost at least 90 games eight times -- including 119 in 2003. Manager Jim Leyland came aboard, along with veteran ace Kenny Rogers, and their young pitching staff came up roses. They finished the season leading the majors in staff ERA at 3.84.

In recent years, the AL Central has continually churned out surprise teams between the Tigers, Indians, White Sox and Twins. A well-rounded roster is key to competing in the ultra-competitive division and Detroit certainly has that. From a lineup that adds Gary Sheffield to eight returning starters to the stellar rotation that boasted four 13-game winners in '06, the Tigers should be considered the favorites to repeat as divisional champs.

Jeremy Bonderman started going after batters much earlier in the count last season and finished with over 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career -- well above his career average of 140.

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Last year was supposed to be a big year for the Brewers, especially for all you Fantasy fans who like to jump on the next big thing. But we have to say young talent takes time and Ben Sheets needs to get through an entire season.

Perhaps this is the year.

Rickie Weeks will be one of the hot-button players of the spring. He's loaded with talent and has just as many injury questions. The wrist that has dogged him was surgically repaired, so hopefully we can finally see what he can do over the course of a full season. He has the potential to go .300-25-80-100-25 as early as this year. He's that good.

But, he'll also go ridiculously early for someone so unproven and injury prone.

You should be able to get better value out of the man-child at first, though, Prince Fielder. The sophomore could be overlooked because his numbers as a rookie were not top shelf at his deep position. They will be in short order, though, perhaps on the level of .300-30-110-100 as early as this year.

The hype will be high again -- tempered only a little by last year's disappointment team-wide -- but they do have one very important thing going for themselves this time around:

A year's experience.

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It's a new day in Kansas City ... Well, at least they hope it is.

The Royals endured a horrible season in 2006 with the most promising items still developing down in the minors. They made a few moves to bring in some nice talent, like Ryan Shealy, and the sudden development of Mark Teahen caused Royal-blue smiles. But it's the farm system, led by super prospects Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar and Billy Butler, that will keep Fantasy teams stocked over the next decade.

Kansas City's pitching staff was one of the worst in the majors a year ago. Their starters had an ERA of 5.85, and the bullpen's was 5.36 -- both were low marks in the AL. So they'll have a completely revamped rotation than the one that took the field on opening day last season. Gil Meche leads the staff as the veteran No. 1 (it's tough to call him an ace though), and Odalis Perez shaved a full run off of his ERA after arriving in Kauffman Stadium (granted, he still had an ERA of 5.64 after the trade).

From a Fantasy perspective, you'll want to keep an eye on the Royals' staff, but as of now, they aren't worth owning in mixed-league play. One interesting pitcher to watch early in the season, however, is Zack Greinke, who has returned to the mound after some psychological issues a year ago. It's hard to forget what the youngster did in 2004, posting eight wins and a 3.97 ERA in 145 innings as a rookie. If he can get his head straight, he could be a nice sleeper for ERA and WHIP help -- likely not wins though.

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It's the Pirates. If you're looking for Fantasy gems here, you're obviously new to this game.

Yes, Zach Duke is a third-year starting pitcher breakout candidate and Jason Bay would be a future MVP if he played for a team in a bigger market, but the Pirates traditionally manage to make a mess of good things.

Example 1: Remember the disappointment after snagging promising young arms Duke and Paul Maholm last spring? Coming off their late run(s) in 2005, they cost a pretty penny last March in Fantasy -- only to produce pretty much nothing for most of the season.

Example 2: Manager Jim Tracy says punchless shortstop Jack Wilson is his No. 2 hitter when reigning NL batting champ Freddy Sanchez profiles as an ideal two-man. Wilson should take his struggling-to-get-on-base act to the eight-hole, not near the top of everything. Also, Bay should be hitting third, not cleanup, which would give him at least 75 more plate appearances over the course of a season. Batting even one spot lower can cost Bay as many as six homers, 20 RBI and 20 runs.

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The Twins were chasing the Tigers for most of the 2006 season. After a very slow start offensively (ranked 27th in the majors in runs scored for April), the Twins turned it up. They finished in the top five in the AL in scoring for the second half of the season.

Their rotation has been one of the best in the AL for the past couple of seasons, mostly because of the dominance of Johan Santana, who has easily been the top Fantasy pitcher in recent years. But entering this season, their rotation is in flux, with Brad Radke retired and Francisco Liriano out for the year after elbow surgery. Outside of Santana, the Twins are riddled with questions. Can Boof Bonser repeat his freshman performance? Will Carlos Silva rebound from the worst season of his five-year career? Can Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson put together successful seasons in their return to the AL?

The Twins have an array of young pitching talent that should be ready to step in and help this season -- they'll likely have to. Matt Garza showed flashes during his rookie season and Glen Perkins has a chance to make the team out of camp as well. Scott Baker still holds comparisons to Brad Radke, but he'll need to show more consistency to stick in the rotation. Prospect Kevin Slowey is also waiting in the wings for an opportunity. J.D. Durbin has been a solid prospect, but he's out of options, so he'll need to make the team this spring.

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A Cardinal will go off the board first on Draft Day, Albert Pujols, then Chris Carpenter will go no more than a round later. After that, well, let's just say the Cardinals are a little top heavy in the Fantasy department.

There is plenty of potential here, though, particularly with a rebuilt pitching staff. It's just you will find you can collect your favorite postseason heroes later than usual this Draft Day.

Pitching coach Dave Duncan proved last year he's the best in the business. Really. Anyone who can turn Jeff Weaver into a playoff hero and a world champion deserve a lot more credit that he has been given.

Not to mention, Duncan traditionally makes something out of nothing with his pitchers. Remember when he brought Chris Carpenter off the pitcher scrap heap and turned him into a Fantasy stud?

You should, because he can do similar things with long-time underachiever Kip Wells and elite prospects Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright (talk about postseason hero right there). Heck, he's even saying he has an ace -- pun not intended -- up his sleeve in ex-closer Braden Looper.

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Unlike many organizations -- yo, Angels get your wings -- Arizona's top-notch farm system isn't impressive only on paper. They are producing future All-Stars on the field, too.

Carlos Quentin, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson and Chris Young are four of the best young talents at their positions. Reigning NL Cy Young Brandon Webb is already there.

Toss in the veteran Randy Johnson in his return to the desert and you have yourself an outstanding mix of youthful exuberance and veteran savvy to compete in a wide-open NL West.

If you're one of those Fantasy owners that salivates at the prospect of players who haven't peaked, Arizona is one of the best places to look. Quentin and Drew have the potential to go from mid-to-late round steal to possible Fantasy MVP, providing the best bang for their buck from Draft Day to coronation day. Jackson will be an overlooked sophomore at a deep first base position, while Young is a preseason NL Rookie of the Year favorite as a speed-and-power outfielder.

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The Rockies have been one of the best teams in Fantasy at providing us with rookies with big upside the past few years. Now, they have some of our favorite categories of players reaching or thriving in their prime.

Third-year starting pitchers (Jeff Francis), 27-year-olds (Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe) and an injury-risk sleeper (Brian Lawrence). Oh, and the slew of first-year starters and Rookie of the Year candidates are still mixed in: Troy Tulowitzki, Chris Iannetta, Jeff Baker and perhaps Jason Hirsh.

Atkins and Holliday are already Fantasy superstars sure to fly off the board in early rounds, but a few of the others above will be following suit this season in some way, if not to the level we saw from those two 2006 breakout players.

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The Angels went through a rough 2006 season and their offseason hasn't been a bowl of jelly beans either. Last year, they couldn't seem to get going offensively, ranking just 18th in the majors with 766 runs scored as a team. You're expected to rank higher than that with Vladimir Guerrero as your anchor at the plate.

From the mound, the Angels essentially pitched over their heads. Their staff ace, Bartolo Colon, dealt with a shoulder injury that limited him to only 10 starts -- the fewest in his career. The team is still trying to take a cautious approach with him this spring, allowing him as much time as his shoulder needs to come back healthy. Considering he threw over 200 innings in seven of his previous eight seasons, it's not a surprise that he broke down last year.

The only thing that made Colon's absence less painful for the Angels was the fantastic performances of their young pitchers. Ervin Santana came through with a stellar sophomore campaign and despite overtures from other teams -- including the Yankees -- the Angels have kept him. He threw a career-high 204 innings and entering his third year as a starter, we have high hopes for the right-handed Dominican.

Jered Weaver had a rookie-of-the-year type season -- unfortunately, it was in a year that was already stocked with several other incredible rookie performances (Justin Verlander, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Liriano to name a few). But he lost only two games, posted a 2.56 ERA and his WHIP was an impressive 1.032. While he's a superb talent, it's reasonable to expect him to take a step back in his second season as opposing teams begin to figure him out. Remember how Felix Hernandez struggled a bit in '06?

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The Dodgers don't have a masher in their lineup, but they have a lot of those middle-round Fantasy breakout and sleepers to pick through.

One of the best farm systems in baseball has already produced Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, but expect this to be another year where a few more Dodgers prospects make surprising midseason runs at Rookie of the Year honors. Their big-time young talent that will eventually be some of the most-soughted after on Draft Day.

The injury-risk veterans Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent are still around and worthy of starting for your Fantasy teams in any league, but even if they go down with yet another extended injury, there is big-time talent waiting in the wings. Nomar is currently blocking James Loney, who has easy power and could develop into a .300-30-100 slugger by the age of 27. Kent is vertiably old, if not injury-prone, but if he goes down, Wilson Betemit could slide over from third base to second and pave the way for a future Fantasy star in Andy LaRoche, the younger brother of Adam LaRoche.

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The A's might have changed skippers, but they'll likely try to do the same things they did last year on their way to the ALCS for the first time since 1992. Bob Geren takes over at the helm, who also lost their staff ace to cross-bay rival San Francisco.

They also replace on aging DH veteran (Frank Thomas) with another (Mike Piazza), but the latter's departure from behind the plate should mean a boon for his Fantasy stats. He'll no longer need to squat 150 times a game, deal with the tools of ignorance (mask, chest protector and shinguards) or call a game defensively with his pitching staff. Oakland is a pitcher's park with spacious foul territories, but Piazza should still be able to capitalize on his first season in the AL.

One important item to note is that the young pitching staff led by Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton will still be taught by pitching coach Curt Young for the fourth consecutive season. This staff loses Barry Zito and they chose to just move everyone in the rotation up one spot rather than bring in an expensive free agent ace. That means they need Harden to stay healthy -- not an easy feat for someone that has had oblique, back and elbow problems in recent years. In his four major-league seasons, Harden has thrown more than 130 innings only once (2004).

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Adrian Gonzalez is so good, he could single-handedly change this opinion, but if you're looking for Fantasy players in San Diego, it should be a pitcher.

Jake Peavy is a potential Cy Young winner. Chris R. Young is a big-time third-year starting pitcher breakout. Greg Maddux is a solid veteran who should be bouyed by Petco Park. Clay Hensley is quietly one of the best starters you might have never heard of. (Forget David Wells, he's just here to take up innings and space -- a lot of it.) Trevor Hoffman remains one of the steady veteran closers worth trusting -- especially behind that rotation and solid bullpen -- which will have the added expertise of new manager (ex-Angels pitching coach) Bud Black.

We do like Khalil Greene as a 27-year-old breakout candidate and he might even qualify as a sleeper, too, because he could go off the board after 10 other shortstops on Draft Day.

But, he better be good, because that Padres lineup won't scare anyone if Gonzalez cannot get pitches to hit.

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