Stick a Fork in 'Em

[rockieprogress]

With the current lineup of Pitchers, the Rockies don't have a chance of making the playoffs.

[John Cocktoston]

I wasn't sure where to put this, so this seemed as appropriate as anywhere else. Consider it the "silver lining" to the "Stick a Fork in 'Em" thread, courtesy of Tim Kurkjian.



Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Rockies' improvement tied to better defensive play

By Tim Kurkjian
ESPN The Magazine

The Rockies have tried almost every way to win in the thin air of Denver, which some will say is impossible. They have tried assembling ferocious offensive teams, some of the best in recent history. They have tried signing sinkerball pitchers. They have tried the humidor. And now they are closer than they've been in a while to getting it right.


The Rockies have the best defense in the National League. Through Tuesday, they had made only 59 errors, fewest in bthe majors, six fewer than any other NL team. They are on pace to make 19 fewer errors than they've ever made in a full season, and 45 fewer than they made in 2005. That is significant because there is a direct connection between good defense and winning teams: Starting in 1995, of the 24 teams that led their league in fielding percentage, 11 went to the playoffs. Meanwhile, of the 24 teams that led their league in home runs, only six went to the playoffs. That's how the Rockies used to try to win, and, at least recently, they've learned that it makes more sense to play defense in Denver.


"We knew, with the way we put together our rotation, we weren't going to get a lot of strikeouts, so balls were consistently going to be put in play, and we were going to have to catch it,'' said Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd. "[Manager] Clint [Hurdle] started that ball rolling two years ago by stressing the basics [of defense], but it has really caught fire this year. We have always tried to make routine plays, but we've gone beyond that.''


"This is by far the best defensive team we've had,'' said first baseman Todd Helton, who has been with the Rockies for 11 years. "We make the routine plays, and a lot of good ones.''


The defensive improvement, O'Dowd said, "begins with the kid at shortstop [Troy Tulowitzki]. His mentality is so consistent. We're starting to realize what a special player he's going to be.''


Tulowitzki has 11 errors in 123 games, the fourth-best rate in the NL, but more impressive because he's a rookie. Tulowitzki is a big shortstop (6-foot-3), much like his heroes, Cal Ripken and Derek Jeter, and has a strong arm.


"He has much better range than I thought he would have,'' one scout said of Tulowitzki. "He gets to a lot of balls for a guy his size.''


Tulowitzki and second baseman Kaz Matsui have been marvelous. Matsui had trouble making the pivot after moving to second base from shortstop two years ago, but he is so quick and nimble on his feet, he has become very good around the bag. The Rockies lead the major leagues with 148 double plays. They are on pace for 185 (27 more than in 2005). Having a second baseman with a shortstop's arm is a bonus at second base.


"Both of our middle infielders have great arms,'' Helton said. "That really makes a difference.''


The defense has improved because the Rockies have gotten faster in the past two years with Matsui and with center fielder Willy Taveras. "Speed and defense are very important in our ballpark,'' O'Dowd said. "Two guys can fly. The rest are capable runners.''


But the renewed hope of the Rockies is also tied to another fundamental change: throwing more strikes. In 2004, Rockies pitchers walked 697 batters. In 2005, it dropped to 604, then to 553 last year. This season, Colorado pitchers have walked the six-fewest batters in the major leagues. They're on a pace for 483 walks, which would be the fewest in club history.


The improved speed and defense, and the throwing of more strikes, have helped the Rockies lower their team ERA to 4.42, which would break the club record for the lowest ERA in club history -- demonstrably better than the franchise average of 5.26. And now the Rockies are starting to add power arms from their minor league system to the major league team, including right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, whose fastball has been clocked at 100 mph.


It's going to take more power arms. It's going to take more speed and more defense. It's going to take more of everything if the Rockies are, in the near future, going to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 1995. They still trail the Diamondbacks in the NL West, but at least the Rockies are starting to figure it out.


"No matter where you play, you're going to be better when you catch the ball and your pitchers throw more strikes,'' Helton said. "So we're not going to be making any predictions until the season is over. But we're in a better position than we've been in a while.''


Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.

[Heltonfan]

My ZR-based numbers concur with the assessment that we've got the best defense in the league.

Of course, it's more interesting when broken down individually. Fielding runs above average:

Iannetta 1.09
Torrealba 1.00

Helton 10.06
Baker 1.32

Matsui 8.79
Carroll 7.36 (in limited playing time... even when slugging under .300, he's not entirely worthless)

Tulowitzki 10.86

Atkins -13.18

Holliday 10.89

Taveras -7.89
Spilborghs 0.54
Sullivan -0.50

Hawpe -1.79

I just updated these spreadsheets for the first time since leaving the States; before the update, Atkins was at -7. So he managed to cost us six runs in a month. All the crap you guys have given him recently seems to be justified.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Cook is done for the year. Re-injured that oblique throwing in his rehab start last night.

[John Cocktoston]

Atlanta
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Minnesota

Four teams that are considered to be "in the hunt for a Wild Card" as of tonight according to the Baseball Tonight standings graphic.

Those are also four teams that have a worse record than the Colorado Rockies and are trailing in their respective wild card standings by more than the 5.0 games the Rockies trail in both the NL West and NL Wild Card.

Like it or not, the Rockies are still very much in this thing and with the number of games they have left against the NL West and PHI, they control their own destiny which is about all you can ask for.

Looking ahead, San Diego visits Arizona for three while we host SF at home beginning tomorrow. There are essentially eight possible combinations between the two series (SF@COL and SD@AZ), so it's possible to know exactly what the standings will look like come Thursday morning.

The Rockies can either go 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 or 0-3.

1) If they sweep and either SD or AZ sweeps, the Rox will be 5.0 back in the NL West and 2.0 back in the NL Wild Card.

2) If the Rox sweep and the AZ v. SD series splits 2-1, the Rockies will be 4.0 back in the NL West and 3.0 back in the NL Wild Card.

3) If the Rox win the series 2-1 and either SD or AZ sweep, the Rockies will be 6.0 back in the NL West and 4.0 back in the NL Wild Card.

4) If the Rox win the series 2-1 and SD v. AZ series splits 2-1, the Rockies will be 5.0 games back in the NL West and 4.0 games back in the NL Wild Card.

5) If the Rockies lose the series 1-2 and the SD v. AZ series splits 2-1, the Rockies will be 6.0 back in the NL West and 5.0 back in the NL Wild Card.

6) If the Rockies lose the series 1-2 and either SD or AZ sweep, the Rockies will be 7.0 back in the NL West and 4.0 back in the NL Wild Card.

Of note, barring the Rockies getting swept, they will be playing "meaningful games" on September 7th no matter what happens.

[DieHardRoxFan]

Things are looking up. Steve Phillips is now picking the Phillies for the WC.

[HoyaRoxFan]

One supposes that every game is meaningful, such that no matter what the standings are, the Rockies could be construed as playing meaningful games in September.

Having said that, isn't it conventional wisdom that a team playing well can realistically hope to gain one game a week in the standings at this point in the year, barring a complete collapse by their competitors? Thus, unless the Rockies fulfill scenarios 1 or 2 (and even then), I'm just not sure they're in it.

Win, win now, win a lot, or it's the end of the road.

[John Cocktoston]

Originally Posted by HoyaRoxFan

Having said that, isn't it conventional wisdom that a team playing well can realistically hope to gain one game a week in the standings at this point in the year, barring a complete collapse by their competitors?

But there's nothing conventional about the Rockies' remaining schedule.

To begin with, they have 16 of 26 games at home where they've played .600 baseball this year. But, much more importantly, they have 6 series (20 games) against SD, LA, AZ and PHI. Those are the 4 teams directly ahead of them in the Wild Card.

Your statement about making up a game a week may be true in many circumstances, but not here. All you have to do is look at what even one series sweep does to the equation to see why the head-to-head element is so critical. Of course, it works the other way too. If they get swept in any of those series, you can likely offer your congratulations to a jubilant Newman at that point.

I'm not saying it's time to line up for playoff tickets, and the starting rotation is questionable, but they've got a real shot at this thing. I think it's going to be fun to watch. I hope so, anywyay...

[indianadrew]

"Having said that, isn't it conventional wisdom that a team playing well can realistically hope to gain one game a week in the standings at this point in the year"

it is realistic for a team to gain more than that, especially if they are playing all teams in their own division

[BigRapidsJackass]

I'm pleased to see that the first key element of my longshot playoff run appears to be well underway: the collapse of the Diamondbacks.

They got blown out by the Padres today. Micah Owings is suddenly looking like a young Josh Fogg. And after running through BK Kim and Dana Eveland they'll likely be looking elsewhere again for a 5th starter. I'm waiting for Livan Hernandez to fall apart next.

Remember, the scenario is for the D'backs to collapse, the Dodgers to continue playing slightly sub-.500 ball in lethargic fashion, and the Rockies to have a good/lucky streak in their 6 remaining games with the Padres ...

[GerryInCS]

Originally Posted by DieHardRoxFan

Things are looking up. Steve Phillips is now picking the Phillies for the WC.

And a week or so, he was picking our Rockies. His opinions change on a daily basis

[BigRapidsJackass]

I'm pretty immune to the "we've got resiliency" "we never quit" kind of stuff, but I am impressed that our Rox are hanging in there when they have to use 10 pitchers a night to get through San Diego's weak offense.

I still think it can't last -- sooner or later running guys out there 4 times a week like Dessens/Morales/Redman is going to have to catch up with you. But I like the new quick-trigger Clint. At this point of the season, you probably can run 5 -6 pitchers out there every night without causing any serious problems. And you're likely to get better overal results that way than in trying to squeeze 5 innings out of a Mark Redman every 5th day. Right now you've got a reasonably good chance to seize the platoon advantage with:

Affeldt/Serafini (c'mon, he must have shown something for O'Dowd to pick him up)/Fuentes against LHH

Speier/Bautista as RHH specialists (both have shown problems with lefties)

Morillo/Bautista/Ortiz/Redman as mop-up guys

Herges/Hawkins/Julio as setup guys

Corpas to close

Pretty much all of these guys (Corpas excepted) are flawed relievers, but they all have strengths that -- if Hurdle uses them correctly -- can get him 5-6 innings on those nights when a guy like Dessens is the designated "starter." Right now I'd go get Wickman if I were O'Dowd. With Dessens down, they'll need yet another arm to bridge the gap.

EDIT: Nevermind. I was wondering why nobody snagged Wickman, so I checked. The D'backs beat us to it. Nobody can tell me that's because he preferred to pitch in Phoenix. In fact, he'd have had a more prominent role with us. Why does O'Dowd let our competitors constantly beat us? Wickman's no great thing, but right now that's not the question. The question is: "Would you rather have him out there than Ryan Speier?" Than Denny Bautista? Than Ramon Ortiz? Because with Dessens down, that's who you're going to be seeing a lot more of.

[John Cocktoston]

YouTube - They pull me back in

[indianadrew]

out of all of the teams in the hunt for the wildcard, we have the best record for the last 10 games. gotta like that. GO ROCKIES!

[indianadrew]

we this game is do or die. if the rockies dont win today you can stick a fork in em. the fat lady will sing, it will be over. i know they can do it. the only questions that remain are can the brewers do it and will the rockies do it