Playoff Odds Thread

[BigRapidsJackass]

I did this last year, and I thought it was interesting to watch our statistical likelihood of making the playoffs plummet from about 25% in mid-July to about 5% in early August ... and then down from there.

So let's start it for this year.

Baseball Prospectus link: Postseason Odds

Right now, we're at about an 8% chance of winning the NL West, and about a 5% chance of getting the wildcard. These are the "simple" probabilities, based on how the clubs have performed so far this season. In other words, no adjustments are made for the inherent quality of the respective rosters or for player acquisitions/injuries, etc. BP also does one based on their PECOTA projections, taking into account roster changes. You can assume the Rockies will fare a bit worse on those projections, since (after all) the Padres and Dodgers projected better at the start of the season and neither club (so far) has suffered any big-time injuries.

A different but similar link:
coolstandings.com Baseball - "Smart" Division Standings

Their "dumb" projection shows the Rox playoff chances at 16.5%

Try their "smart" projection (similar to the PECOTA adjusted idea) and we're at 15.7%

Bottom line: assuming no major roster changes, the Rockies have about a 1 in 7 chance right now of a bunch of things breaking their way and making the playoffs.

[Rankal]

I believe we have to win the NL West to get in to the playoffs, as the Wild Card will probably go to the NL East. So we're 3 1/2 games out of first place going in to today, that means we have to play about .650 ball from here on out to get ourselves in, with the success the Padres and Dodgers seem to have. I believe the Diamondbacks will slip and fall.

With no likely acquisition in place other than a possible Troy Percival to aid our bullpen, and the fact we'll have to give something up to get him, I'd say our chances are a little bit better than 1 in 7 ... and say 1 in 5. 20% chance of making it to the playoffs.

[BigRapidsJackass]

I don't think .650 is necessary. Certainly .600 is, though. .600 ball over the course of the remaining 60 games is 36-24. I think it's pretty unlikely, but the key is to stay in the race through August and hope to catch noncontending teams in September throwing out a bunch of AAA call-ups.

As for the D'backs: I agree. I think they're pretenders, particularly now that it's clear that Randy Johnson isn't coming back. They've still been outscored by their opponents this year, and seem to be riding the crest of a wave of good luck. So I think they'll fade. The Dodgers and Padres, barring serious injury problems, look like they're in it till the end.

[BigRapidsJackass]

BP playoff chances: 17 percent

Coolstandings "smart" odds: 20 percent; "dumb" odds: 19.5 percent

Someone asked about the impact of losing Rodrigo Lopez. The answer is that neither system (from what I can tell) would factor this in. In fact, even BP's PECOTA-based variant uses preseason PECOTA projected winning percentages for each club. I think their "ELO" based variant is supposed to factor in roster changes, but their explanation isn't exactly clear.

One other difference in the systems to keep in mind: the "basic" BP odds report (in fact, all of their 3 versions) are based on pythagorean records. I think the coolstandings "smart" odds are based on pythag records, and the "dumb" report on real records. This makes a difference when a club (Diamondbacks) is somewhat outperforming their pythag record. For example, the D'backs playoff chances:

BP basic: 24% (based on their pythagorean winning percentage of .469)
Coolstandings "smart": 26.1%
Coolstandings "dumb" (based on real-world record up till now): 52.8%

EDIT: Actually, the coolstandings "dumb" mode is really dumb: not only is it based on real (not pythag) records; it also assumes every club is a .500 club going forward. I wouldn't put much stock in it at all.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Playoff odds this morning: 19.8% (BP) / 24.4% (coolstandings "smart")

Excuse me for saying so, but isn't a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs good enough to qualify as a real competitor? I'd say so.

Then why do we have to pick up the Sports section or turn on the local news or flip the radio to 950 AM and hear about Broncos Friggin' Training Camp as the lead story??

[DieHardRoxFan]

After Sunday the Rockies have the toughest schedule in the NL the rest of the way with 36 against winning teams and only 16 against losing teams. The DBacks will have the easiest schedule in the division after Sunday.

[John Cocktoston]

The NL West is even closer than it looks right now.

The Diamondbacks have a 3.5 game lead on the Rox, but the Rockies have 3 games in hand on them. In the loss column, the Rockies are 2 games behind both AZ and SD and only 1 back of LA.

And the silver lining to that difficult schedule is that the reason it's so difficult is that they will be playing the teams ahead of them in the NL West quite a bit. An optimist might see that as the ability to control your own destiny...

(That phrase has always bothered me, actually. If it's destiny, then you can't control it whether you win or lose. Same with controlling your own fate. Anyway...)

[DieHardRoxFan]

Also playing all the teams ahead of them in the WC. If the Rockies make it they certainly will have earned it.

[RMF]

I think we might win this thing. There I said it. This has been a great season so far. Can't wait to watch Jimenez tonight.

[John Cocktoston]

RMF: "Hi. My name is RMF and I'm an unashamed Rockies fan."

Group: "Hi, RMF!"

[BigRapidsJackass]

After Sunday's games:

BP has the Rox playoff chances at about 28% -- a 19% chance of winning the division, and a 9% chance of the wildcard.

Coolstandings "smart" odds: 34% chance.

Good question: when's the last time this club had a better than 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs? I'd guess it was 2000, when they finished at 82-80.

[BigRapidsJackass]

In the category of "that's not really inspiring more confidence in me ..."

I just saw Steve Phillips on SportsCenter predict that the Rockies will win the wild card.

[Dante Bichette]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

In the category of "that's not really inspiring more confidence in me ..."

I just saw Steve Phillips on SportsCenter predict that the Rockies will win the wild card.

Yeah, I saw that too and had a simular reaction, although I think it is good that the Rockies are getting a little attention from some of the national pundits. They are the forgotten team in the NL West, even the Giants get way more attention, due largely to Bonds but even when he doesn't play they seem to be more recognized nationally. Hell, they seem to be on Sunday Night Baseball or Fox's game of the week every week or so. I still can't figure that out. Last week, even after Bonds had broken the record, Fox had the Giants vs. Pirates as one of their regional games. Talk about boring.

[BigRapidsJackass]

BP's latest update:

Postseason Odds

Rockies have a 6% chance of winning the division, and an almost 10% chance of grabbing the wildcard. Usual warnings apply, but one bears repeating: the BP "basic" odds report doesn't factor in roster changes, including injuries to key players.

[BigRapidsJackass]

I've pronounced the patient dead, but the patient just won't let me bury him.

The Rox climb up off the mat to live another series ... just barely.

This series played exactly according to form:

Their #1 (Zito) vs. our #5 (Fogg): loss
Their #2 (Cain) vs. our #7? (Morales): loss
Their #3 or 4 (Lowry) vs. our #1 (Francis): win

I'm trying to construct a scenario that gets us back in the race. It's tough, but it starts with the D'backs collapsing and the Dodgers sputtering along, leaving the Rockies with the chance to take 5 of 6 remaining games against the Padres, gaining 4 games on the Pads in the process.

So yes, now the NL Division title (longshot that it is) is more likely than the wildcard. We've simply got too many clubs ahead of us (with easier schedules ahead of them) in the wildcard race. The intense intra-divisional play in September will probably result in a losing month for our Rockies, but a few balls bouncing our way and a few unexpected performances (Iannetta gets hot? Spilborghs goes on another tear? Morales clicks?) and some bad luck for the other guys (Chris Young/Padres stays hurt, the D'backs bullpen implodes) and ...

... as a starting point HOW ABOUT TRYING A LITTLE HARDER, CLINT AND DANNO? How about waiving your "DL'd players must make a rehab start" rule for Aaron Cook? Isn't 80% of Aaron Cook better than a 100% Franklin Morales right now? How about maybe passing by Morales in the rotation next time (given the off day tomorrow) and letting Francis go on his normal 4 days rest? How about acting like there's really something at stake here?

Aspire: you call me a pessimist for throwing in the towel. I'm just reflecting the "we're just glad to be in this position; let's call the season a success and continue playing like it's April" attitude of the Rockies management.