Playoff Odds Thread - Page 2

hiaspire · 08-30-2007, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

I've pronounced the patient dead, but the patient just won't let me bury him...

That's too bad. Bad Rockies. Let BRJ have this one and just quit already.

John Cocktoston · 08-30-2007, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

... as a starting point HOW ABOUT TRYING A LITTLE HARDER, CLINT AND DANNO? How about waiving your "DL'd players must make a rehab start" rule for Aaron Cook? Isn't 80% of Aaron Cook better than a 100% Franklin Morales right now? How about maybe passing by Morales in the rotation next time (given the off day tomorrow) and letting Francis go on his normal 4 days rest? How about acting like there's really something at stake here?

There's a difference between a sense of urgency and being panic stricken. It's still August, after all. There are 29 games to play, 16 of which are at Coors Field.

Regardless of what happens tonight, the Rockies will begin the Arizona series 5.0 games back in the Wild Card and 6.0 games back the NL West.

They play Arizona 6 times.
They play San Diego 6 times.
They play the Dodgers 7 times.
They play Philly 4 times.

They've still got a real chance at this thing. Assuming they go 4-2 against AZ and SD, that gives them a real chance to make-up those other 3.0 games (4.0 games respectively) in the remaining 23. And don't forget the roster call-ups that are coming this weekend. There will be plenty of arms on hand, so as much as you want to get Cook back, you need him to be effective more than just to take a turn in the rotation.

The moves you're calling for make sense if they're 4.0 back in mid September, not late August. Things could look awfully different, one way or another, after this D'Backs series.

indianadrew · 08-30-2007, 12:33 PM

i am not ready to toss in the towel just yet. if the rockies start playing lights out ball the division or the wild-card are possible. this season has been really good so far, and i am looking forward to the final streatch.

i am with ya JC. GO ROCKIES

BigRapidsJackass · 08-30-2007, 12:45 PM

As far as skipping one of the lesser pitchers in the rotation to keep Francis on a steady "4 days rest" schedule:

If they do that, Francis gets 6 more starts this season.

If they don't? If they stick with a "5-man rotation" throughout the rest of the season despite the fact that there's already been one "off" day (today) and three more off days in September?

Then Francis gets 5 more starts.

Maybe I'm stupid, but I don't think it exhibits "panic" to make sure that your best pitcher gets an extra start and your worst pitcher gets one fewer start ... that is, if you really think you're trying to win something, it would be irrational to do anything but what I've suggested.

Which brings me to my point: Rockies management (primarily Hurdle) aren't acting like they think they are real competitors.

So why should the fans think they are?

Roxpert · 08-30-2007, 12:55 PM

Jackass is absolutely right about Francis and getting one extra start from your ace, and one fewer start from your #5 guy. I've written about that as well previously. True contenders with a brain would do exactly that.

It's not "panic" to make this one tweak to the rotation when handed off-days. It's being smart in an effort to win a playoff spot. We probably can't do it anyway, but why not pull out all the stops to try? As long as such measures are not damaging to the team longer term (and going on 4 days rest isn't), the manager would be foolish not to put his best players out there as often as possible down the stretch.

BigRapidsJackass · 08-30-2007, 01:12 PM

Speaking of "foolish" managers ...

... I didn't see yesterday's game, but I couldn't help but notice that Hurdle pulled out his old trick again. Here's espn's game summary.

Top of the 1st:

Quote:

Noah Lowry pitching for San Francisco COL SFO
K Matsui doubled to deep right. 0 0
T Tulowitzki sacrificed to first, K Matsui to third. 0 0
M Holliday fouled out to catcher. 0 0
T Helton grounded out to shortstop. 0 0

Yes!! The leadoff double followed by a sacrifice bunt is back!!

All hail the return of the Bunt Hungry Maniac!!

[Aspire, I'm sure you'll tell us that Hurdle knew that Francis would pitch a complete game shutout. But please notice: the strategy resulted in ZERO runs scored for us.]

Roxpert · 08-30-2007, 01:30 PM

I didn't watch the game either, but that wouldn't surprise me. When he's desperate after seeing his team score a measly run in each of his first two games of the series, the Cooler will revert to what makes him "comfortable". The SH in the 1st inning, especially after a leadoff double, is like a comfy old sofa that you just don't want to get rid of, even when sagging from overuse over the years. The SH is Hurdle's "old sofa", or security blanket, if you will.

BigRapidsJackass · 08-30-2007, 03:02 PM

Roxpert, because this one turned out to be a runaway 8-0 victory, this move will easily be forgotten.

But I am not exaggerating here: this is one of the all-time stupidest moves a manager will ever make.

Remember the Bunt Hungry Maniac last year? He used his typical # 2 hole hitters to sacrifice a runner to 3rd with no outs on several occasions. But those # 2 hole hitters were guys like Cory Sullivan and Jamey Carroll and Clint Barmes.

Yesterday, that guy was Troy Tulowitzki. This is Tulo's line since May 15 (ordinarily it might be a bit unfair to eliminate 6 weeks of a season from our analysis, but given Tulo's extreme youth, I think everyone here agrees that our best bet is that the "real" Tulo is the one we've seen over the last 3 months, and not the raw rookie of April):

.311/.379/.500

An 879 OPS.

For comparison, Todd Helton has put up a 796 OPS over the same time frame.

And that guy was: (1) sacrifice bunting; (2) a very fast runner who would easily score on most any solid base hit; (3) to third base; (4) with nobody out; (5) in the top of the 1st; (6) with Matt Holliday, recently voted by managers as the "best hitter in the National League (this is on Baseball America's site) up next; (7) and with Todd Helton after that.

Oh, and by the way, it didn't work.

John Cocktoston · 08-30-2007, 03:55 PM

I have no problem with lining up your rotation to take advantage of an off day by getting Francis an extra start on regular rest.

But when you start talking about forgoing rehab starts, that's different. Remember, that's why Brian Fuentes took well over a month to get back in the saddle with the same injury- he tried to rush it and strained it again, setting him back to square one. You can withstand that setback in July. If Cook reinjures himself rushing back to make 5 starts instead of 4, you end up losing him for the year and he makes 0 starts. Not worth the roll of the dice, IMO.

BRJ didn't advocate this, but the other stuff smacks of desperation and the "don't just stand there...do something!" mentality. Sometimes, standing there is the best option. For instance, when confronted with the "opportunity" to acquire Esteban Loaiza for $8M in guaranteed money, doing nothing is arguably the better play...

BigRapidsJackass · 08-30-2007, 04:45 PM

Actually, JC, I don't see the Loaiza thing as a big mistake. Totally mediocre/average pitchers have been signing for at least that much ($8 million) per year. Sure, Loaiza is a health risk, but it's only for one year, and by assuming his contract now the Dodgers may get a few decent starts out of him.

Of course, there's really no reason to think he's better right now than Brett Tomko would be, but the Dodgers were evidently swayed by that totally meaningless 2-11 W-L record of Tomko's.

As for Cook and a rehab start: Fuentes aggravated his injury during a rehab start. So I might understand your point if the Rockies were planning on having Cook not even throw off a mound for another week or some such thing. But he's going to be pitching, he's probably going to be going more or less full tilt, and I think the reinjury risk has to be just about as big when making a minor league start as it would be pitching for the big club.

John Cocktoston · 08-30-2007, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

As for Cook and a rehab start: Fuentes aggravated his injury during a rehab start. So I might understand your point if the Rockies were planning on having Cook not even throw off a mound for another week or some such thing. But he's going to be pitching, he's probably going to be going more or less full tilt, and I think the reinjury risk has to be just about as big when making a minor league start as it would be pitching for the big club.

That's actually a great point. The problem with Fuentes wasn't the rehab outing, it was the lack of sufficient time between the injury and when he tried to crank it up again. Had he foregone the rehab outing and tried to pitch for the Rockies, it's safe to presume he would have had the same problem.

With Cook, I think they've already given him more time than Fuentes had, so when he's healthy it simply becomes a question of whether he's your best option. No doubt the club is better off having him throw 70 effective pitches in Denver as opposed to the Springs. I suppose it hinges on how he looked in the side sessions, because the margin for error is such that maybe Franklin Morales gives them a better chance to win than a sloppy Aaron Cook who is guaranteed to burn at least 4.0 innings of your bullpen?

BigRapidsJackass · 08-30-2007, 07:26 PM

JC, I think you've hit on the key point: if Cook is on a 70-pitch limit, will the bullpen be overtaxed?

In the middle of the season, the answer might be yes. But with expanded rosters starting next week, I think there's plenty of options to pick up those extra innings. For example, if Cook takes Dessens spot in the rotation, Dessens becomes the middle man.

BigRapidsJackass · 09-21-2007, 01:28 PM

Postseason Odds

2.6% chance of getting the wild card.

1% chance of winning the NL West.

That'll change a lot this weekend.

We sweep the Padres, we're suddenly right back in it.

Win 2 of 3, we're still hanging by a thread.

Lose 2 of 3 or get swept: it's over. This time "over" as in "really, really over." I know I already stuck a fork in the Rockies a couple weeks ago. And that coincided with the end of anything but a long, long shot at making the playoffs. I think I was right, but the last week has been fun anyway. The biggest problem is that while we were going 5-2 on our homestand, the Padres were going 7-0 on theirs. Oops. The second problem is that the D'backs refuse to collapse. They are the 2005 White Sox. The third problem is that the Phillies are gaining ground and they get lousy opponents.

Good news: I think we killed any realistic chance for the Dodgers. That's always nice to see. The wild card field has also narrowed. The Pads/D'backs (whichever loses the division) are still the frontrunners, the Phils a solid 2nd, the Rockies a solid -- but far, far back -- 3rd. Barring something outrageous, the NL Central will only be providing one playoff team, so it's nice to get them out of the way.

And it all starts tonight ... against JAKE PEAVY. Win this one and I'll annoint you the Team of Destiny, dear Rockies.

indianadrew · 09-23-2007, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Postseason Odds

1% chance of winning the NL West.

That'll change a lot this weekend.

We sweep the Padres, we're suddenly right back in it.

And it all starts tonight ... against JAKE PEAVY. Win this one and I'll annoint you the Team of Destiny, dear Rockies.

team of destiny!

BigRapidsJackass · 09-23-2007, 08:21 PM

You got it Drew ... it's not just a winning streak, it's DESTINY!

I just bought my NLDS playoff tix. Games 3 AND 4.

I actually went down to Coors today (nice bike ride from where I live) and was astonished to find the box office closed. Apparently the Rox front office isn't convinced of this whole "destiny" thing yet. You'd think they'd want the pictures in the paper tomorow of folks lining up for tickets.

So I got home and bit the bullet, paying the internet fees (I don't know if they'll be refunded if the Rox sweep the NLDS in 3!)

I also got my tix for the Friday fireworks game and Sunday's finale (REGULAR SEASON finale that is) when the D'backs get eliminated.

YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!

08-30-2007, 01:30 PM	#22 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,008	I didn't watch the game either, but that wouldn't surprise me. When he's desperate after seeing his team score a measly run in each of his first two games of the series, the Cooler will revert to what makes him "comfortable". The SH in the 1st inning, especially after a leadoff double, is like a comfy old sofa that you just don't want to get rid of, even when sagging from overuse over the years. The SH is Hurdle's "old sofa", or security blanket, if you will. Last edited by Roxpert; 08-30-2007 at 03:16 PM.

08-30-2007, 03:02 PM	#23 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,101	Roxpert, because this one turned out to be a runaway 8-0 victory, this move will easily be forgotten. But I am not exaggerating here: this is one of the all-time stupidest moves a manager will ever make. Remember the Bunt Hungry Maniac last year? He used his typical # 2 hole hitters to sacrifice a runner to 3rd with no outs on several occasions. But those # 2 hole hitters were guys like Cory Sullivan and Jamey Carroll and Clint Barmes. Yesterday, that guy was Troy Tulowitzki. This is Tulo's line since May 15 (ordinarily it might be a bit unfair to eliminate 6 weeks of a season from our analysis, but given Tulo's extreme youth, I think everyone here agrees that our best bet is that the "real" Tulo is the one we've seen over the last 3 months, and not the raw rookie of April): .311/.379/.500 An 879 OPS. For comparison, Todd Helton has put up a 796 OPS over the same time frame. And that guy was: (1) sacrifice bunting; (2) a very fast runner who would easily score on most any solid base hit; (3) to third base; (4) with nobody out; (5) in the top of the 1st; (6) with Matt Holliday, recently voted by managers as the "best hitter in the National League (this is on Baseball America's site) up next; (7) and with Todd Helton after that. Oh, and by the way, it didn't work. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 08-30-2007 at 03:05 PM.

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08-30-2007, 12:33 PM	#18 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 528	i am not ready to toss in the towel just yet. if the rockies start playing lights out ball the division or the wild-card are possible. this season has been really good so far, and i am looking forward to the final streatch. i am with ya JC. GO ROCKIES

08-30-2007, 12:45 PM	#19 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,101	As far as skipping one of the lesser pitchers in the rotation to keep Francis on a steady "4 days rest" schedule: If they do that, Francis gets 6 more starts this season. If they don't? If they stick with a "5-man rotation" throughout the rest of the season despite the fact that there's already been one "off" day (today) and three more off days in September? Then Francis gets 5 more starts. Maybe I'm stupid, but I don't think it exhibits "panic" to make sure that your best pitcher gets an extra start and your worst pitcher gets one fewer start ... that is, if you really think you're trying to win something, it would be irrational to do anything but what I've suggested. Which brings me to my point: Rockies management (primarily Hurdle) aren't acting like they think they are real competitors. So why should the fans think they are?

08-30-2007, 12:55 PM	#20 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,008	Jackass is absolutely right about Francis and getting one extra start from your ace, and one fewer start from your #5 guy. I've written about that as well previously. True contenders with a brain would do exactly that. It's not "panic" to make this one tweak to the rotation when handed off-days. It's being smart in an effort to win a playoff spot. We probably can't do it anyway, but why not pull out all the stops to try? As long as such measures are not damaging to the team longer term (and going on 4 days rest isn't), the manager would be foolish not to put his best players out there as often as possible down the stretch.

08-30-2007, 03:55 PM	#24 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	I have no problem with lining up your rotation to take advantage of an off day by getting Francis an extra start on regular rest. But when you start talking about forgoing rehab starts, that's different. Remember, that's why Brian Fuentes took well over a month to get back in the saddle with the same injury- he tried to rush it and strained it again, setting him back to square one. You can withstand that setback in July. If Cook reinjures himself rushing back to make 5 starts instead of 4, you end up losing him for the year and he makes 0 starts. Not worth the roll of the dice, IMO. BRJ didn't advocate this, but the other stuff smacks of desperation and the "don't just stand there...do something!" mentality. Sometimes, standing there is the best option. For instance, when confronted with the "opportunity" to acquire Esteban Loaiza for $8M in guaranteed money, doing nothing is arguably the better play...

08-30-2007, 04:45 PM	#25 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,101	Actually, JC, I don't see the Loaiza thing as a big mistake. Totally mediocre/average pitchers have been signing for at least that much ($8 million) per year. Sure, Loaiza is a health risk, but it's only for one year, and by assuming his contract now the Dodgers may get a few decent starts out of him. Of course, there's really no reason to think he's better right now than Brett Tomko would be, but the Dodgers were evidently swayed by that totally meaningless 2-11 W-L record of Tomko's. As for Cook and a rehab start: Fuentes aggravated his injury during a rehab start. So I might understand your point if the Rockies were planning on having Cook not even throw off a mound for another week or some such thing. But he's going to be pitching, he's probably going to be going more or less full tilt, and I think the reinjury risk has to be just about as big when making a minor league start as it would be pitching for the big club.

08-30-2007, 07:26 PM	#27 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,101	JC, I think you've hit on the key point: if Cook is on a 70-pitch limit, will the bullpen be overtaxed? In the middle of the season, the answer might be yes. But with expanded rosters starting next week, I think there's plenty of options to pick up those extra innings. For example, if Cook takes Dessens spot in the rotation, Dessens becomes the middle man.

09-21-2007, 01:28 PM	#28 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,101	Postseason Odds 2.6% chance of getting the wild card. 1% chance of winning the NL West. That'll change a lot this weekend. We sweep the Padres, we're suddenly right back in it. Win 2 of 3, we're still hanging by a thread. Lose 2 of 3 or get swept: it's over. This time "over" as in "really, really over." I know I already stuck a fork in the Rockies a couple weeks ago. And that coincided with the end of anything but a long, long shot at making the playoffs. I think I was right, but the last week has been fun anyway. The biggest problem is that while we were going 5-2 on our homestand, the Padres were going 7-0 on theirs. Oops. The second problem is that the D'backs refuse to collapse. They are the 2005 White Sox. The third problem is that the Phillies are gaining ground and they get lousy opponents. Good news: I think we killed any realistic chance for the Dodgers. That's always nice to see. The wild card field has also narrowed. The Pads/D'backs (whichever loses the division) are still the frontrunners, the Phils a solid 2nd, the Rockies a solid -- but far, far back -- 3rd. Barring something outrageous, the NL Central will only be providing one playoff team, so it's nice to get them out of the way. And it all starts tonight ... against JAKE PEAVY. Win this one and I'll annoint you the Team of Destiny, dear Rockies.

09-23-2007, 08:21 PM	#30 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,101	You got it Drew ... it's not just a winning streak, it's DESTINY! I just bought my NLDS playoff tix. Games 3 AND 4. I actually went down to Coors today (nice bike ride from where I live) and was astonished to find the box office closed. Apparently the Rox front office isn't convinced of this whole "destiny" thing yet. You'd think they'd want the pictures in the paper tomorow of folks lining up for tickets. So I got home and bit the bullet, paying the internet fees (I don't know if they'll be refunded if the Rox sweep the NLDS in 3!) I also got my tix for the Friday fireworks game and Sunday's finale (REGULAR SEASON finale that is) when the D'backs get eliminated. YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!