The Decline and Fall of Todd Helton.....

[Roxpert]

Here are the sad facts about Helton....

April - .384/.518/.500 - 1.018 OPS
May - .295/.396/.495 - 0.891 OPS
June - .265/.402/.408 - 0.810 OPS
July - .222/.529/.333 - 0.862 OPS (through July 4th)

2006 - .302/.404/.476 - 0.880 OPS
2005 - .320/.445/.534 - 0.979 OPS
2004 - .347/.469/.620 - 1.089 OPS

Is Clint Hurdle deluded into thinking it's still 2004 by batting him cleanup all season? Helton has fallen as a slugger, and is merely a way above-average OBP guy now. He's "John Olerud", and should be batting 3rd, with Holliday 4th, Hawpe 5th, and Atkins 6th. Clint is clueless as usual about such matters.

[Dante Bichette]

I would love to see us trade Helton and get rid of his contract and open up a spot for Stewart or Koshansky. I also think he still has some trade value left, but any potential deal will probably have to come soon. The Yanks need a first baseman right now and have to be desperate, and packaging Helton along with someone like Fuentes could bring a decent return.

[hiaspire]

Some of the stat guys here can voice the previously heard opinions that the batting order isn't all that significant.

I don't agree with that as much, and also believe that where Helton hits is an issue for this team to resolve going forward.

In the real world for most every team, speed at the top of the order is valued along with good contact and OBP. Taveras and Kaz have provided us much improved traditional table-setters with the ability to force the action and make things happen with their speed. I wouldn't mess with that too much personally. If one of them went into a prolonged funk, they could be moved way down and Helton moved up to #2 which would make some sense and provide more RBI opportunities for Holliday you'd think. If that happened, though, Tulo would probably be brought back up to #2 where he had success before and fits into the tasks asked of a 2-hole hitter more than Helton probably.

Holliday has a very high average and OBP as well as the power numbers. To me, he needs to stay at #3 which should be the premium spot in most lineups for such hitters who bring both high contact and power. You want to make sure he gets a crack at it that first inning, and immediately after your table-setters do their jobs.

Hawpe could maybe jump up to cleanup when he's going strong over Helton, but that's probably about it IMO. But with Hawpe following Holliday, I don't think you are going to get the same kind of RESPECT as teams still give Helton. That impacts Holliday to some extent. They are much more likely to pitch around Holliday with young Hawpe coming up than Helton IMO. Teams still worry about Helton and make strategic changes for him than they do Hawpe now. No matter what the stats say.

[Heltonfan]

Teams still worry about Helton and make strategic changes for him than they do Hawpe now. No matter what the stats say.

Uh, the stats say that Helton is outhitting Hawpe this year...

[Roxpert]

One other thing I looked at today shocked me. Helton's on pace for well over 600 plate appearances, having had 334 plate appearances through today, a pace of 694 plate appearances in a full 162 game season.

Batting clean-up all season, he has only 39 RBIs with those 334 trips to the plate. He's on pace for only 81 RBIs! Now, I know as well as anyone that RBI is a garbage stat and team-dependent, but it's not like Helton hasn't had his chances, or that the top 3 in the order aren't getting on base in front of him. 39 RBIs??? What's up with THAT?????

[hiaspire]

Uh, I'm talking about traditional power and run-producing measurements typically assigned to cleanup hitter evaluations that many are complaining about with Helton in that role.

He's on pace for only 81 RBIs!
He's only hit 6 HRs, etc.

[Heltonfan]

39 RBIs??? What's up with THAT?????

Helton's hitting .299/.495/.377 with RISP. Yes, that .377 SLG is rather weak, but the more significant number there is the middle one. He's not driving in runs because they're not giving him anything to hit.

[Roxpert]

Heltonfan, I personally think that Helton has lost it. He's no longer a slugger, which is what you need as a clean-up hitter. Notice that when he drives the ball, it's usually to leftfield, and with warning track power. He doesn't TURN on the ball anymore. Either his bat speed has left him, or he is intentionally changing his style to preserve his back.

Some would say it's evidence of past PED use that he no longer drives the ball, but that's too simplistic an explanation. I think it's age and his back that have forced a style change. Fortunately, his eyes are as good as ever, and his outstanding strikezone judgement and ability to foul off marginal pitches are allowing him to draw walks. It's not so much that he is being pitched around. Helton simply has extraordinary bat control, patience, and a great eye for the strikezone.

If they are still pitching around Helton, it is due to his reputation only. He could be receiving some "reputation walks", but I think it's his one great skill remaining that enables him to draw walks. This doesn't make him a great, or even good, clean-up hitter though.

[Heltonfan]

Helton has a .317 ABR this year, which is perfectly in line with projections (I have him at .313 going forward). He's still the best non-Pujols first baseman in the league, and is worth about 4.3 WAR per year (which means that, even in his weakened state, he's still earning his paycheck, at least in comparison to what we'd likely get by reinvesting his money elsewhere in the free agent market). I couldn't care less whether or not he's a conventional cleanup hitter.

[bedir than average]

You have him as better than Prince Fielder right now?

[Heltonfan]

Sure, why not? Prince doesn't project to keep hitting anywhere near this well, and he's a terrible defensive first baseman. Helton's chief competition is Howard and Lee, not Fielder.

[bedir than average]

Ok, I get it.

When you say "Best First Baseman in League" you are including the expected decline of Fielder. I'd be intrigued by statisical evidence that prospects that have been that successful right out decline that far.

[Heltonfan]

When you say "Best First Baseman in League" you are including the expected decline of Fielder.

Yes and no. Fielder has been worth 4 runs more than Helton offensively this year, but Helton has been 7 runs better with the glove. Fielder's expected decline obviously doesn't hurt my case, but it isn't necessary, either.

Anyway, Fielder's SLG is up 140 points over last year. No player, at any age, can be expected to maintain an improvement that drastic.

[bedir than average]

They have a 12 Runs Created Differential, though their RC/27 is nearly identical (8.5 v 8.33) Where do you come up with only 4 runs different?

WPA for Helton is 2.25 and Fielder is 2.57.

[Roxpert]

Heltonfan, you seem to be saying that Helton is still an elite 1st baseman due, in large part, to his glove. What weighting do the defensive stats have in your ABR equation? And why should we take so literally the quantification of defensive stats, especially for 1st basemen?

Me thinks you may be too "in love" with your propietary ABR stat to see objectively what is happening to Helton, though you admit to a "weakened" state. For aging players, the first thing to go is reflexes. The loss of the batting eye happens last. Willie Mays walked 112 times in 1971, his personal high, just before falling off the cliff in 1972/73, to use one example.

I suggest you look beyond ABR, and see that Helton's weakened state MAY have predictive value in knowing what could happen next.....loss of eye.