The Decline and Fall of Todd Helton.....

[Roxpert]

The decline continues. The OPS by month for Todd has been 1.018, .891, .810, and .782. So far in August, Todd is 1 for 12 with 6 strikeouts and 3 walks (2 intentional). Why Bobby Cox would walk him twice in the same game with an open base is beyond me.

When is this going to become a major story that the press might cover? If it wasn't for the fine play by this team of late, I think Helton's decline would be a story that the media would be covering right now. Todd has to be thankful that the team is playing well. His suckitude as a cleanup hitter is getting more and more glaring to all (except Clint), but is being masked by his teammates.

[sg8335aa]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

The decline continues. The OPS by month for Todd has been 1.018, .891, .810, and .782. So far in August, Todd is 1 for 12 with 6 strikeouts and 3 walks (2 intentional). Why Bobby Cox would walk him twice in the same game with an open base is beyond me.

When is this going to become a major story that the press might cover? If it wasn't for the fine play by this team of late, I think Helton's decline would be a story that the media would be covering right now. Todd has to be thankful that the team is playing well. His suckitude as a cleanup hitter is getting more and more glaring to all (except Clint), but is being masked by his teammates.

The first won was runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out and was purely to setup the double play. With Atkins hitting behind Helton, that is always a possibility.

If my memory serves me right, the 2nd time was with 2 outs.....so I'd be just as puzzled as you are Roxpert.

One thing I'll give Helton credit for is every single time the opposing pitcher is laboring and getting into the 80s/90s of pitch count and trying to get through an inning......Helton comes up and proceeds to have one of those patented AB that always seem to go to a 3-2 count with 4-5 foul balls. Silver lining for sure.....but hey, its August and we're only 3.5 games back. I'm looking at the silver lining in everything right now.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by sg8335aa

One thing I'll give Helton credit for is every single time the opposing pitcher is laboring and getting into the 80s/90s of pitch count and trying to get through an inning......Helton comes up and proceeds to have one of those patented AB that always seem to go to a 3-2 count with 4-5 foul balls. Silver lining for sure.....but hey, its August and we're only 3.5 games back. I'm looking at the silver lining in everything right now.

Helton has two skills left - Great strikezone judgment and the ability to foul off almost any pitch that's close to the strikezone. He is averaging 4.4 pitches per plate appearance, a personal career high, and up from 3.9 to 4.0 over the past many seasons. So Todd is more patient and more tenacious than ever at the plate.

He is also less effective at driving the ball or turning on pitches than ever before. That's why he is no longer a prototypical cleanup hitter. And it's getting worse by the month.

[Newman]

What does it say when the only thing you can come up with about your cleanup hitter is that he's good at fouling off pitches!!!

I too was stunned when Bobby Cox, the genius, walked Helton twice. So what if he owns Smoltz. That's the old Helton, not the new foul ball machine Helton.

This is such a study in human nature. Clearly Todd is no longer a cleanup hitter. I mean a total of 9 homeruns in August, playing at Coors Field, ugh, and excuse the lack of a complete sentence.

How do you move him out of that slot? He is the face of the franchise. He has a huge ego. Stars are more important than managers.

Just do it, Clint! Have him shave his beard and put him in the 5 or 6 hole. He's hurting the team. Or, maybe the 2 hole, where his great skill at fouling off pitches can be used effectively. He's a slow singles hitter now, washed up at age 33?

Why doesn't he just go back to taking steroids, save his career, and help the team? No one in MLB seems to care about steroids anyway, from Al Downing to Kirt Reuter to Joe Morgan to Peter Gammons to Willie Mays to Bud Selig to the CEO of ESPN. Who cares what message it sends to the kids. Kids don't watch baseball anymore anyway. They are watching Ultimate Fighting Championships.

Wayne Hagen was right.

[John Cocktoston]

There's no question that his best days are behind him, but I think Todd can still be a pretty useful player. I'd like to see him more in the #2 or #3 hole rather than #4 hole, though.

Interestingly enough, according to his ESPN spray chart, 39% of the balls he's put in play this season have been pulled. He's gone up the middle 29% of the time and the other way 33% of the time.

For what it's worth, I'd rather he went back to that swing he had going in April. I think the fact that he had 1 HR in the month got to him a little bit psychologically, but he was nearly impossible to get out. He hit .384/.518/.500 and drew 25 walks against only 5 K. After that, I think you could see him start to muscle up a little as he tried to drive the ball and his stats tell the story.

If he can get comfortable with where he is now in his career as a hitter, I think he can be a .320/.440/.450 guy over a full season. Again, no longer an elite middle of the order guy, but an on-base machine who will see a lot of pitches and hit some doubles. Rod Carew with more pop and elite doubles potential. That has real value. Is it $16.6M in value? No.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Classic rant, Newman. You're in fine form. I hope it's not just the powerful painkillers.

Helton is still very productive, but Roxpert and SG have hit on the very disturbing trend. He's got those Bill James "Old Player Skills" to the max (the only thing that separates him from the classic formula is he's still good defensively). He's living off reputation and the ability to fight off/foul off good pitches. He rarely drives the ball anymore.

He is Mark Grace. Not the Mark Grace of his Cubbies prime; the Mark Grace of his Diamondbacks swan song. He is still helping this club win, but you've got to be scared. He's signed through 2011. At this rate of decline, there's no way he'll be a full-time player the last couple years of his contract. A Mark Sweeney at 20 million bucks? I think that's likely.

EDIT: Check this out. It is the precipitous decline of Todd's Isolated Power:

Todd Helton Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies | FanGraphs

EDIT 2: And this one. ISO splits. Note the sub-.100 ISO vs. LHP:

Todd Helton Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies | FanGraphs

So I'm starting to change my mind on Helton. It's too late to trade him. I think he can gradually morph into a part-time player. Good defense at 1B, still very effective (for now) against RHP, gradually becoming a platoon-type player, ultimately a 250 AB role player by his age 36 or so season. So maybe guys like Koshansky aren't really "blocked" at all. Maybe we need to keep him, and let Helton become a much more effective John Mabry type.

[John Cocktoston]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

He is Mark Grace. Not the Mark Grace of his Cubbies prime; the Mark Grace of his Diamondbacks swan song.

Actually, that just made me go back and look at Grace's stats and the 2007 Todd Helton is an almost identical player to Mark Grace in his prime, at least statistically speaking. Grace is a fantastic comparison in a lot of ways, though.

Mark Grace Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

[BigRapidsJackass]

JC, he's much closer to Mark Grace in 2001 ... when Gracie got 450 ABs and helped the D'backs win a championship. Grace's OPS+ (I believe park adjusted on BR) that year was 114. Helton's this year is 122.

But look what Gracie did after that year. Sure, he was older. But the point I'm making is that Helton's aging trend is accelerated compared to some of his comparables. For example, Wally Joyner at 36 (yup, he juiced a little then) was about equal to Helton's age 33 season. So I think we're in a pretty steep decline here.

[John Cocktoston]

I'm not sure about the 2001 comparison, but I think Grace is the right comparable.

BP had the 2001 Mark Grace as a 5.6 WARP player.

Thus far, the 2007 Todd Helton has already contributed 5.3 WARP. Wins Above Replacement Player is a cumulative stat, so the fact that Todd still has 54 games to play is rather significant.

[Dante Bichette]

All Todd needs to do is make a little visit to the Balco labs next time the team is in San Fran, and his problems will be solved. Maybe he can call Barry for a reference.

[RockieRooter]

I think you can only think of Helton's contract as sunk money and go forward. Hopefully by making baseball decisions rather than wishful thinking about how much Helton will have to get paid or about "getting something" for the money. If Helton contributes more in a platoon, then maybe they should think about doing it and not worry about how much he's being paid per AB.

[Roxpert]

Dante, you bring up a good point about Helton and a trip to Balco. I was never one to suspect Todd with juicing, but my opinion has shifted during this premature decline we are witnessing. Either his back problems are a lot more bothersome than any of us know, or something about his preparation and conditioning has gone awry. Or I guess he simply could be a rapid ager.

But think of all these other lefthanded former elite sluggers who are a shadow of their early 21st century selves.....

Brian Giles
Ryan Klesko
Shawn Green
Bobby Abreu
Luis Gonzalez
Carlos Delgado

Now, while aging may explain much of their collective decline (but still, how did Gonzo actually manage 57 homers in '01???), I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if PEDs played a role in the earlier success of at least a couple of the above listed players, Hellton included.

BTW, I wonder why the power decline is seen more with the lefties than the righthanded hitters. Maybe just a coincidence?

[RockieRooter]

I'm guessing it's his back, but maybe not directly. His D is still ok, so I wonder if he's just afraid to cut loose?

[BigRapidsJackass]

JC, WARP is cumulative, so the fact that Helton 07 is about even with Grace 01 is primarily a function of the fact that Grace had 540 PAs in 2001 and Helton already has about 450 PAs this year.

So I'll admit that by any measure Helton has been a bit more productive than Grace in 2001 ... but those seasons are still pretty similar. And my point is that we should be viewing Helton from now on as a very useful player who is on the severe downswing. And I'll give O'Dowd credit -- maybe that's one reason why he's so hesitant to deal "blocked" players like Koshansky or Stewart or Baker (the latter two could move Atkins to his natural 1B position).

Roxpert, as for the juicers: Giles had a precipitous power decline after '02. His brother had a similar decline after '05. I think they are prime objects of suspicion. (With Brian we also have to factor in age + the move to Petco.) Klesko is about the clearest unproven case of juicing we've got. LuGo? I'd say more likely than not. Shawn Green? I don't think so, just based on the body type. But I'll be the first to admit it's a pure guess. Delgado? I don't have a clue. Helton? I'd say I'm 70% certain he was juicing. No science or direct evidence supporting that view, but I think he pretty well fits the pattern.

[Roxpert]

Ahh, so we finally have Troy Renck writing about Helton this morning. And in so doing, he shows that the Cooler is a "man in denial".....

"If I bat somebody else in Helton's spot, who else gets intentionally walked twice (on Friday)? Maybe (Matt) Holliday. But he's having the best year of his career where he's hitting now," manager Clint Hurdle said. "Todd's been grinding for a few weeks. But he can jump and bite you, and I think he's getting ready to do that."

Helton said last week that his "eyes were sore" from watching his bad swings. While his lack of power has bothered him at different times this season, he's not being muscled by Hurdle. All the manager wants is for the first baseman to score runs and drive them in.

"Just getting back to squaring the ball up, that's the key," said Hurdle, who pointed out that a primary reason for not considering Brad Hawpe for the cleanup role is the fact he's no longer starting against left-handers. "The questions get asked about Todd. But I have to do what's best for the ballclub."

So Hurdle's justifying keeping Helton at cleanup because he got two IBB's from Bobby Cox on Friday. As if that happens with most managers, most of the time. What, is Hurdle deluded??? Does Helton have 200 intentional walks this year? And what evidence do YOU have, Clint, that Helton is about to "jump and bite" anyone?

Umm, Earth to Clint. You don't sacrifice RUN PRODUCTION from your cleanup spot for the occasional brain cramp that Cox displayed in fearing that Helton is in his 2001 form. Our manager is so disingenuous, and intellctually dishonest, that it truly makes me sick.

EDIT: Oh, and to add to the insult to our collective intelligence, the Cooler is starting Helton and batting him cleanup against the lefty, Chuck James, today while siting Brad Hawpe. Apparently, Hurdle thinks only Hawpe is the platoon player, and he never saw the ISO charts that Jackass showed us the other day.