The Decline and Fall of Todd Helton.....

[Newman]

The Decline and Fall of Brian Fuentes. Ugh.

Drew, do you have any proof that wrestlers use steroids?

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, I wish we had access to the archives on the old board.

You may recall I spent a couple hours trying to see what aging pattern is most likely for Helton. The realistic best case scenario I could come up with? Will Clark. And that's kind of how Helton is looking right now.

The realistic worst case? Olerud. And I'm not counting that out yet.

But the scary thing: Clark was done after his age 35 season. Helton's contract runs through his age 38 season.

[Roxpert]

Actually, Clark had a productive season at age 35, and chose to retire early. Helton could be done at age 35, but Clark really wasn't.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Well I think we can rest assured that Todd Helton won't be retiring early.

Todd --"I'd be happy just a-fishin' and a-huntin' -- loves the $$$.

Remember, he had the option to opt out of his contract last year. He could've signed with the Red Sox for something like 3 years/$24 million. Not chump change, and a World Series ring may be one of the perks.

He chose to stay here in losertown. I think an extra $75 million might've had a little bit to do with that.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Do I hear "Mark Grace?"

[Newman]

Doesn't Todd still have a good OPS??? Isn't that what really counts? RBI and HR are such old fashioned stats. No one uses them anymore.

Seriously, isn't that what you statheads told me when I mentioned Helton's 6 home runs about a month ago? I was told that he is a great hitter and has a superior OPS and all is well in Heltonland?

Where do you hide a slow singles hitter in a lineup (without hurting his ego)? You don't want him clogging up the basepaths at the top of the lineup. What if you moved him to 6th or 7th, where he belongs? Would that motivate him or not?

Why would he be done as a power hitter at his age? He was a future hall of famer. What happened? Are we allowed to speculate about steroids or is that verboten?

[indianadrew]

all you have to do is multiply the first four digits by the quantitive mean. take that number and divide it by pi/.2683. you then take the square route of the final number+ his batting average. pretty simple stuff.

newman, if you cant figure that out i dont know what to say. number dont lie. helton contrubutes WAY more than 17 million dollars worth of offense. to say that he is not worth the money is just absurd.

[Newman]

Drew, I hope you never leave this site. You're like a kindred spirit.

I mean I could go out and buy a fancy calculator or get some SABR software and figure out Todd's RISP success rate after 9pm on grass vs a lefty or I could try to figure out is BABR or his LSMFT or I could do it the old fashioned way and see that he is still stuck on 6 home runs and it's almost July and he doesn't have very many RBI either, for a cleanup hitter.

I'm not discounting newish stats, various computations, Bill James' theory of this or that. All of that stuff is usefull. But it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see that Helton is not getting it done and I don't care what his OPS is he still is not getting it done.

However, moving him anywhere but 3,4,or 5 would take the deft diplomacy of a John Bolton and I'm not sure Clint Hurdle could pull it off.

[Heltonfan]

Doesn't Todd still have a good OPS??? Isn't that what really counts? RBI and HR are such old fashioned stats. No one uses them anymore.

Seriously, isn't that what you statheads told me when I mentioned Helton's 6 home runs about a month ago?

It's what I said, except I didn't refer to OPS specifically. Don't mistake anyone else in this thread for a "stathead" (by the way, in case you have trouble distinguishing the real "statheads" from the dabblers, just use this rule: no serious sabermetrician uses OPS for anything). Anyone who thinks that Helton has been an on-field liability this year ("on-field" meaning "not considering his salary") is statistically illiterate. Period.

You don't want him clogging up the basepaths at the top of the lineup.

Yes, God forbid we put an elite on-base guy at the top of the order. This "clogging up the bases" thing is idiotic. How many situations arise, in the course of an entire season, where a player's lack of speed actually prevents the batter behind him from advancing as far as he otherwise could? Off the top of my head, I'd guess that it maybe happens a couple times per team per year. Let's try to focus on things that actually matter.

Oh, and Drew: sarcasm only works if you understand the arguments being made. No one is saying that Helton is a great asset at his current salary; the most I've said is that his contract doesn't look bad in comparison to this past winter's free agent market. And while I know that my statistical methods can seem rather opaque, the logic behind them is actually pretty simple. I'd be happy to explain where that ABR formula comes from if anyone's interested.

[indianadrew]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Oh, and Drew: sarcasm only works if you understand the arguments being made.[/color]

sarcasm also works if it is funny. in my case it does.

[Roxpert]

Heltonfan, do I detect a little bit of a "chippy" attitude, or perhaps defensiveness against the non-stathead community that writes here?

Oh, and people who refer to OPS are not "disqualified" as "stathead literate". I am quite literate in the subject, thank you. It's just that I don't have the time, or patience, to produce ABR numbers or similar such statistics. I am more of a consumer than a producer of sabermetrics. If that's "dabbler" in your book, whatever.

The reason I speak in terms of OPS is because THAT is the language that most on this board (whether readers or contributors) can understand. ABR-talk is an attempt to talk OVER people's heads in many cases, and while I completely understand the concept, I don't think most lurking or writing here do. OPS, however, is a shorthand that is more easily grasped and tells you perhaps 85% to 90% about a player that ABR would tell you.

So, there's no need to put down others because they don't really care to engage in ABR-speak and, perhaps, don't share your love for Helton. Just because your idol has been dissected and critqued here is no reason for you to get your dander up. I can tell you are irritated with the thread., which is why I wrote this.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

How many situations arise, in the course of an entire season, where a player's lack of speed actually prevents the batter behind him from advancing as far as he otherwise could? Off the top of my head, I'd guess that it maybe happens a couple times per team per year. Let's try to focus on things that actually matter.

It matters. Managers don't make decisions based upon how often something is going to happen over the course of the year in terms of numbers on paper. They are managing to optimize their situation in that moment on the field. That moment is what matters to them. If you don't pinch-run for a slow runner, and a situation that arrises where that lack of speed kills your opportunity, then that manager is a fool for not doing what you easily could to create the best strategic position for yourself. Even if the unresponsive manager can show that it only helps x amount of times on average for a year, that won't make the lost opportunity any happier.

In terms of lineup arrangement, there has been an added dimension to the team when Taveras and Kaz are on their games, healthy, and going well. Those who have followed the Rox for years also know the impact that EY had in his best seasons where he got on base frequently and aggressively created opportunities for the sluggers.

Speed doesn't have off-days. Speed CREATES opportunities out of nothing. It puts pressure on a defense and opposing pitchers. It can turn an easy grounder into a momentum-changing scenario. Then, once that table-setter creates something out of nothing you have your best hitters up to make the defense/pitcher pay for their forced mistakes. You don't get that without speed.

That being said, I think OBP is extremely valuable at the top of the order. I told people here that Taveras had the ability to improve his OBP and averages, and he has. Kaz also has been fantastic at times at the top of the order. But I've also been in favor of Helton or Atkins (when he was making more contact in the past) hitting in the 2-hole when we were struggling for productive table-setters. This year that hasn't been much of a problem, though.

[Dante Bichette]

I know very little about sabermetrics, in fact, other than reading "Moneyball," I am very ignorant. I freely admit it.

I have, however, watched baseball my entire life, and even played it until college, and I love the game. My opinion? Helton is underachieving as a cleanup hitter, especially when his contract is considered, he is getting worse every year, and we would be better off trading him for any sort of value or salary cap relief.

That is my ignorant opinion. Thanks for reading.

[Newman]

The statheads on this site, hmmmm, maybe I should rephrase that as the young owner of this site, seem to feel that they are superior to the non-statheads. Where does this arrogance come from? From Theo's success in breaking the curse of the Bambino in Boston?

If statheads are so superior how come owners don't hire them exclusively? Or do they? Is O'Dowd considered a stathead? If so...I rest my case.

I agree with Drew and Dante and the other non-statheads on this site. As the famous philosopher Rodney King once said, "Why can't we all just get along?"

And if sarcasm is funny, it's because it's funny.

Q: would the Rockies be more successful with Helton in the 2 hole (clogging up the bases, playing station to station, being the slap hitter to left that he has become) OR would they be better off with Willy and Kaz at the top?

Seriously can this decision be made sabremetrically?

HF, what would your ideal batting order be, if you were in charge of it?

I remember my twin saying something about the civil war that stuck. Of course I've forgotten exactly what it was but it had to do with leadership. Not sure it's a good analogy but it was like the southern soldiers would follow Robert E. Lee and fight like hell for him whereas maybe the northern troops didn't have the same confidence in Burnside, even if he made the right call.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that numbers aren't everything. We're dealing with humans here. Feelings and emotions come into play. Like Jeff Huson says almost every night now on FSN postgame. The players start to wonder "how are we going to lose the game TONIGHT?"

[Heltonfan]

If statheads are so superior how come owners don't hire them exclusively?

Why are there still people out there who don't believe in evolution? Same question. This should also address your inquiry about the origins of sabermetric arrogance.

[Note that I certainly don't mean to imply that a front office should consist entirely of sabermetricians. But there are "traditional" thinkers who have value (the scouts) and traditional thinkers who don't (those who look at RBI and the like). If you're going to look at the numbers at all, there's a right way and a wrong way to do it.]

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My ideal batting order? Atkins, Helton, Iannetta, Holliday, Hawpe, Tulo, Matsui, Pitcher, Taveras.

If you think that Tulo or Matsui is a better hitter than Iannetta, you could flip them in the order. I'm sticking with the projections on that one. But the relevant theoretical point is that the #3 hitter should actually be the fifth-best hitter in the lineup (worse than the #4 and 5 hitters), because, as the #3 hitter, he bats in more low-leverage situations (i.e. two outs, bases empty) than the others do.

Now, you're probably wondering, since the general guiding principle here is getting the best hitters the most plate appearances, why is the pitcher hitting eighth? The answer is that 1) it does help to have a real hitter setting the table for the top of the order and 2) moving the pitcher up one spot doesn't hurt as much as moving Atkins and Helton up three spots helps.

But again, don't be under the impression that any of these things really make a big difference. The difference between my lineup and Hurdle's is probably around 5 runs per year.