The Decline and Fall of Todd Helton.....

[Heltonfan]

Where do you come up with only 4 runs different?

Simple LWTS formula.

Or, alternatively, you can just work backward from the WPA numbers. Helton's WPA/LI (basically a context-neutral WPA, with clutch value taken out of the picture) is 1.90. Fielder's is 2.13. .23 wins is about 2 runs.

I have no idea why the RC numbers are so different. Nor do I care. Using RC for individual hitters is absurd.

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Heltonfan, you seem to be saying that Helton is still an elite 1st baseman due, in large part, to his glove.

Not at all. I have Helton projected at 1 run above average per year defensively.

And there's nothing proprietary about ABR. It's .263 + runs above average per PA (calculated by means of any reasonable LWTS formula, the results shouldn't differ much at all). Pretty simple stuff.

[bedir than average]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Simple LWTS formula.

Or, alternatively, you can just work backward from the WPA numbers. Helton's WPA/LI (basically a context-neutral WPA, with clutch value taken out of the picture) is 1.90. Fielder's is 2.13. .23 wins is about 2 runs.

I have no idea why the RC numbers are so different. Nor do I care. Using RC for individual hitters is absurd.

Ok, thank you, I just didn't know your methodology. I could see the defense making up 2-4 runs, not 10. Appreciate.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Not at all. I have Helton projected at 1 run above average per year defensively.

And there's nothing proprietary about ABR. It's .263 + runs above average per PA (calculated by means of any reasonable LWTS formula, the results shouldn't differ much at all). Pretty simple stuff.

OK, thanks for that. So, you are saying that Helton's elite status is still due to his bat or, more precisely, his ability to foul off pitches and work counts so that he draws walks at an elite rate.

I'd like to know what percentage of his ABR differential above replacement level traces to his walks? It must be pretty high, I'd think. Thus, once he loses his eye, and/or his ability to foul off numerous pitches, I'd suspect his ABR would drop off rapidly, because he has no power to back up his ABR greatness.

[bedir than average]

Would BRAA at FanGraphs be a decent measure of offensive value?

[Heltonfan]

Would BRAA at FanGraphs be a decent measure of offensive value?

You'd think so, but the results are rather nonsensical (Helton ahead of Holliday and Fielder doesn't make sense - off the top of my head, I'd guess that that means it's overvaluing OBP somehow, but without knowing the actual formula they're using, that's just speculation). Use WPA/LI instead.

I'd like to know what percentage of his ABR differential above replacement level traces to his walks?

Excellent question.

Let's assume for now that the absolute floor for Helton's walk rate is the league average, roughly one walk per 11 PA. I think we can agree that, although he is likely to decline, he won't drop below league average in plate discipline any time soon...

Working off that assumption, we can create a new line for Helton, using his existing BA and SLG and a league average walk rate. That puts him at .321/.384/.472, good for a .290 ABR. Or, since you asked for a percentage, the drop in walk rate would cut down his value above replacement level by 37%. So he'd still be an above average player even with the league-average walk rate, but not a star.

[Roxpert]

Would a replacement level 1st baseman have a league average walk rate? If so, then I see your point. A plurality, but not a majority, of Helton's value above replacement level seems to come from his incremental walk-rate. What else creates this difference? A higher BABIP than replacement? A lower strikeout rate which leads to more BIP and thus bases?

And, what if his K-rate RISES to league average for 1st basemen, concurrent with his lowered walk rate? I'd like to see what that hypothetical scenario does to his ABR. After all, if his walk rate were to drop to league-average, it stands to reason his K-rate would rise at least somewhat.

[Heltonfan]

What else creates this difference? A higher BABIP than replacement? A lower strikeout rate which leads to more BIP and thus bases?

Mostly the former (Helton's current .348 BABIP, amazingly enough, is right in line with his career average - he's one of the all-time great BABIP guys). But obviously, the low K rate helps too.

[Heltonfan]

And, what if his K-rate RISES to league average for 1st basemen, concurrent with his lowered walk rate?

.300/.364/.449, .275 ABR. So he'd be a slightly below average everyday 1B.

Moral of the story: that BABIP goes a long, long way.

[bedir than average]

HeltonFan, what is ABR? I didn't read the Rockies board during the merger era and so have not seen on outline of your work.

Could you post some here?

[Heltonfan]

RAA = .47*1B + .77*2B + 1.04*3B+1.4*HR+.33*BB+.19*SB-.43*CS-.27*(AB-H)

ABR = RAA/PA + .263

It's a little more complicated than that. The LWTS values above are approximations; the actual numbers I use vary based on the run environment. And of course, I do park adjustments as well. But that's the basic outline. The .263 is in there just to make the final number look like a batting average; basically, I ripped off the concept of EqA, but switched to a more logical run estimator.

Oh, and ABR stands for Average Batting Runs.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

.300/.364/.449, .275 ABR. So he'd be a slightly below average everyday 1B.

Moral of the story: that BABIP goes a long, long way.

Voila. We now know that Helton's usefullness rests with his eyes and skill at making contact. IF he were to lose those skills as he ages, he quickly becomes a below average everyday 1B.

So, the question really becomes, "To what extent is his loss in power predictive of an imminent decline in making contact and working walks?"

That's my fear. Helton's elite status may be "thread-bare" at this stage. Better to trade him before he is completely exposed as over the hill.

[Heltonfan]

So, the question really becomes, "To what extent is his loss in power predictive of an imminent decline in making contact and working walks?"

Right. And this is where I become awfully skeptical of any predictions of doom. Helton's power has been gone for 2+ years now, and his K and BB rates haven't suffered at all. It could happen, sure, but I don't see any compelling reason to expect it to (above and beyond the ordinary expected age-related decline, of course).

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Right. And this is where I become awfully skeptical of any predictions of doom. Helton's power has been gone for 2+ years now, and his K and BB rates haven't suffered at all. It could happen, sure, but I don't see any compelling reason to expect it to (above and beyond the ordinary expected age-related decline, of course).

Well, you may not see any reason or evidence to expect it......until it happens. In other words, the loss of those skills happens last, but happens fast (when it happens). I mentioned Mays earlier, but we can look to Jeff Cirillo as a contemporary example of what can happen to a contact/eye type hitter when he loses it. Cirillo lost it awfully quickly, and before age 35.

Again, I'd trade Helton rather than wait to see how long he retains his eyes and ability to foul off pitches and make solid contact. He could be a ticking time bomb at $17 mil. per year through 2011 (actually higher).

[indianadrew]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

I'd trade Helton rather than wait to see how long he retains his eyes and ability to foul off pitches and make solid contact. He could be a ticking time bomb at $17 mil. per year through 2011 (actually higher).

it does not seem that he is producing, and at his age it does not seem likely that he will snap out of it. bodies deteriorate at diffrent rates. maybe he is aging quicker. he has had days where he provided us with a glimse of what he once was. i dont think there is much gas left in the tank, who knows what kind of abuse his body has gone through. if there was anyway to unload that 17 mil a year i say do it.

BTW
is everybody as shocked as i was to find out "pro" wrestlers do steroids, and it is scripted