A dismal April - Page 2

Heltonfan · May 5th, 2007, 10:09 AM

Don't forget about Zach McClellan when discussing the improved bullpen. I have no explanation for how a 28-year-old with his track record (or lack thereof) is suddenly being successful in the big leagues, but he's been impressive so far.

Anyway, I'm in agreement with pretty much everything you wrote, except for Taveras. Yes, in a sense it's "missing the point" to complain about his lack of power, since power has never been a strength of his, but the fact that the lack of power fits our expectations doesn't make it any less of a problem. And the fact that he's the leadoff hitter does virtually nothing to diminish its significance. In other words, yes, Taveras is doing what he was brought here to do, but what he was brought here to do isn't particularly valuable.

And as for his basestealing... yes, he's on pace to steal 39 bases. But he's also on pace to get caught 28 times. There's no value in that whatsoever. The break-even point for basestealing is around 70%, and he's nowhere near that. His effective OBP (subtracting the CS) is a mere .323. The guy doesn't belong at the top of the order, period.

Also, there's never been a study demonstrating that "putting the pressure on the pitcher and the defense" is of any value. In fact, hitters actually perform worse with a disruptive runner at first base than they do with an ordinary runner. I suppose it's possible that the reverse is happening in the case of Taveras and Tulo, but jumping to that conclusion after 29 at-bats doesn't make any sense. And if there is a positive effect, it's almost certainly a very small one.

GerryInCS · May 5th, 2007, 10:40 AM

And people laughed at me when I suggested putting Tulo in the #2 hole when Barmes was called up. Who's laughing now? Not me, but I do feel vindicated that he is performing well up to this point.

John Cocktoston · May 5th, 2007, 10:48 AM

True enough. If Taveras gets thrown out in 5 out of every 12 attempts this year, that's an awful ratio and he'd be better off staying put. However, I doubt very much whether that's likely to be the case.

Over the last two years, he's stolen 67 bases and been caught 20 times. That's a success percentage of 77% in 87 attempts, which is probably a better sample size to work off of than his 12 attempts this April.

As for his SLG, I see your point, but I really do think he's something of a unique player. For instance, last year, he posted a .278/.333/.338 line with 33 SB in 42 attempts. He had 147 hits, including 25 extra base hits (19 2B, 5 3B and 1 HR).

If you factor in his SB (and really, if there's a compelling reason to count walks and HBP in OBP but not to include SB in TB I haven't heard it) his TB would go from 179 to 212 and his SLG would go from .338 to .400. Even if you wanted to back out his 9 CS he'd still be at .384. Not great by any means, but a little more representative of what he brings to the table.

I agree that he might be an imperfect leadoff hitter (and, ironically, an ideal #8 hitter in the NL) but I also think that the value he does add is insufficiently accounted for in the traditional statistical measures.

Performance analysis has come a long way, but the state of defensive metrics tells you all you need to know about what an imperfect science it currently is. His defense aside, I think a guy with Willy's particular skill set might fall through the cracks of BA/OBP/SLG a little bit.

Roxpert · May 5th, 2007, 10:49 AM

Yes, good points have been made about improved perfomances we can look forward to with the likes of Tulo, Iannetta, Atkins, etc.

To balance that out, though, we may also see some dropoffs in performance.

Todd Helton won't continue to have an OBP of .512, nor will Matt Holliday finish the season at his current .412 level. More realistically, they will settle in at .430 and .370 respectively.

Manny Corpas, as good as his stuff has looked, is not going to stay at a 1.76 ERA for much longer. In fact, in recent starts his early season sharpness has been absent, and he was held out of last night's game to give him two full days of rest. An ERA of around 3.00 will be more likely.

We have gotten some surprisingly good performances from the likes of Arias, Mclellan, and Bautista. Thanks goodness for that, as it was needed with all the pitching injuries. However, based on their track records, they will not be very consistent in the long run. We still need to have Ramirez and, yes, Hawkins healthy.

Buchholz is likely to lose his rotation spot, and hopefully can help in the bullpen, but who will hold down the #5 spot in the rotation? Is Jimenez ready? Will Kim be reinserted in that spot? We really are only 3 deep in the rotation, and one of those three (Francis) has disappointed to this point.

Being 5 games back is not insurmountable, and it is early. But just as there are more players who can improve their production from what we've seen, we could also see some trouble spots emerge or some decline in production from those who have carried us so far.

Of course, if our 5-game deficit turns into a 10+ game deficit in another 30 to 60 days, then we will be discussing whether and when Fuentes, Helton, and Holliday get traded. If all three are gone by July 31st, we could be looking at a 20 game deficit, or more, by year-end.

Let's hope that doesn't happen, and the season remains interesting for a while longer.

Heltonfan · May 5th, 2007, 11:52 AM

Quote:

If Taveras gets thrown out in 5 out of every 12 attempts this year, that's an awful ratio and he'd be better off staying put. However, I doubt very much whether that's likely to be the case.

Agreed. But I also doubt that he'll keep hitting as well as he has; Taveras is currently hitting .377 on balls in play, compared to .332 last year and .348 in '05. All told, I think the production we've gotten out of him so far is right about what can be expected going forward (that is, the shape of the performance should change a bit, but the value should remain the same).

Quote:

His defense aside, I think a guy with Willy's particular skill set might fall through the cracks of BA/OBP/SLG a little bit.

Sure, and I'm not overlooking that. I don't actually use BA/OBP/SLG for any real analysis; I just reference it when posting here because it's generally more relatable than things that I have to calculate myself.

By Linear Weights, a stolen base is worth .19 runs, and a caught stealing is worth -.43 runs. So Taveras's basestealing last year was worth 33*.19 -9*.43 = 2.4 runs. And his ability to advance on batted balls was probably worth another 2 runs or so. That's still not enough to overcome his replacement-level bat and make him a good offensive player, but it is significant.

May 5th, 2007, 10:40 AM	#17 (permalink)
GerryInCS New Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 635	And people laughed at me when I suggested putting Tulo in the #2 hole when Barmes was called up. Who's laughing now? Not me, but I do feel vindicated that he is performing well up to this point. __________________ Americans aren't afraid of Mexicans, Americans are afraid that Mexicans are turning America into Mexico.

May 5th, 2007, 10:09 AM	#16 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Don't forget about Zach McClellan when discussing the improved bullpen. I have no explanation for how a 28-year-old with his track record (or lack thereof) is suddenly being successful in the big leagues, but he's been impressive so far. Anyway, I'm in agreement with pretty much everything you wrote, except for Taveras. Yes, in a sense it's "missing the point" to complain about his lack of power, since power has never been a strength of his, but the fact that the lack of power fits our expectations doesn't make it any less of a problem. And the fact that he's the leadoff hitter does virtually nothing to diminish its significance. In other words, yes, Taveras is doing what he was brought here to do, but what he was brought here to do isn't particularly valuable. And as for his basestealing... yes, he's on pace to steal 39 bases. But he's also on pace to get caught 28 times. There's no value in that whatsoever. The break-even point for basestealing is around 70%, and he's nowhere near that. His effective OBP (subtracting the CS) is a mere .323. The guy doesn't belong at the top of the order, period. Also, there's never been a study demonstrating that "putting the pressure on the pitcher and the defense" is of any value. In fact, hitters actually perform worse with a disruptive runner at first base than they do with an ordinary runner. I suppose it's possible that the reverse is happening in the case of Taveras and Tulo, but jumping to that conclusion after 29 at-bats doesn't make any sense. And if there is a positive effect, it's almost certainly a very small one.

May 5th, 2007, 10:48 AM	#18 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	True enough. If Taveras gets thrown out in 5 out of every 12 attempts this year, that's an awful ratio and he'd be better off staying put. However, I doubt very much whether that's likely to be the case. Over the last two years, he's stolen 67 bases and been caught 20 times. That's a success percentage of 77% in 87 attempts, which is probably a better sample size to work off of than his 12 attempts this April. As for his SLG, I see your point, but I really do think he's something of a unique player. For instance, last year, he posted a .278/.333/.338 line with 33 SB in 42 attempts. He had 147 hits, including 25 extra base hits (19 2B, 5 3B and 1 HR). If you factor in his SB (and really, if there's a compelling reason to count walks and HBP in OBP but not to include SB in TB I haven't heard it) his TB would go from 179 to 212 and his SLG would go from .338 to .400. Even if you wanted to back out his 9 CS he'd still be at .384. Not great by any means, but a little more representative of what he brings to the table. I agree that he might be an imperfect leadoff hitter (and, ironically, an ideal #8 hitter in the NL) but I also think that the value he does add is insufficiently accounted for in the traditional statistical measures. Performance analysis has come a long way, but the state of defensive metrics tells you all you need to know about what an imperfect science it currently is. His defense aside, I think a guy with Willy's particular skill set might fall through the cracks of BA/OBP/SLG a little bit.

May 5th, 2007, 10:49 AM	#19 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	Yes, good points have been made about improved perfomances we can look forward to with the likes of Tulo, Iannetta, Atkins, etc. To balance that out, though, we may also see some dropoffs in performance. Todd Helton won't continue to have an OBP of .512, nor will Matt Holliday finish the season at his current .412 level. More realistically, they will settle in at .430 and .370 respectively. Manny Corpas, as good as his stuff has looked, is not going to stay at a 1.76 ERA for much longer. In fact, in recent starts his early season sharpness has been absent, and he was held out of last night's game to give him two full days of rest. An ERA of around 3.00 will be more likely. We have gotten some surprisingly good performances from the likes of Arias, Mclellan, and Bautista. Thanks goodness for that, as it was needed with all the pitching injuries. However, based on their track records, they will not be very consistent in the long run. We still need to have Ramirez and, yes, Hawkins healthy. Buchholz is likely to lose his rotation spot, and hopefully can help in the bullpen, but who will hold down the #5 spot in the rotation? Is Jimenez ready? Will Kim be reinserted in that spot? We really are only 3 deep in the rotation, and one of those three (Francis) has disappointed to this point. Being 5 games back is not insurmountable, and it is early. But just as there are more players who can improve their production from what we've seen, we could also see some trouble spots emerge or some decline in production from those who have carried us so far. Of course, if our 5-game deficit turns into a 10+ game deficit in another 30 to 60 days, then we will be discussing whether and when Fuentes, Helton, and Holliday get traded. If all three are gone by July 31st, we could be looking at a 20 game deficit, or more, by year-end. Let's hope that doesn't happen, and the season remains interesting for a while longer.