Nate Silver

RMF · April 27th, 2007, 05:12 PM

Any thoughts on Silver's BP article today? Pecota seems to take quite a few Rockies prospects to the wood shed. Also look where the entire NL west ranks. Yikes.

Heltonfan · April 27th, 2007, 05:34 PM

As always with PECOTA, the usual caveats (namely that Davenport's MLEs are horrible) apply... this is why we get Alexi Casilla as a top 10 prospect, for instance.

But I think the organizational rankings look pretty accurate. Silver mentions that PECOTA is pessimistic about Tulo, Ubaldo, and Fowler... well, so am I. So is any good numbers-oriented analyst. Looking at the system as a whole: we have a bunch of guys who are all tools and no stats (the three already mentioned, plus guys like Morillo, Nelson, Gomez). Iannetta is the reverse of that, albeit to a lesser degree. Ian Stewart fits into the middle ground (stats/scouts consensus), but that consensus is one of tempered optimism, not unbridled enthusiasm. We have a deep system, with a lot of talent, but we don't have that one absolute stud (Lincecum, Longoria, Maybin, Bruce, etc. - yes, I intentionally named guys who we could have drafted, and who at least some of us here are on record as having preferred) that would vault our system up into the ranks of the true elite.

RMF · April 27th, 2007, 06:49 PM

Chris Nelson and Ian Stewart were supposed to be those huge upside guys and it just hasn't happened. Nelson is showing nice power this year. Nelson's also making Barmes look patient in comparison.

If we are going to be bad this year I'd really like to be the worst team in baseball. Because I'm thinking that if we could draft Detwiler this year and get Alvarez next year I'd be one really happy guy.

April 27th, 2007, 05:12 PM	#1 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Nate Silver Any thoughts on Silver's BP article today? Pecota seems to take quite a few Rockies prospects to the wood shed. Also look where the entire NL west ranks. Yikes.

April 27th, 2007, 06:49 PM	#3 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Chris Nelson and Ian Stewart were supposed to be those huge upside guys and it just hasn't happened. Nelson is showing nice power this year. Nelson's also making Barmes look patient in comparison. If we are going to be bad this year I'd really like to be the worst team in baseball. Because I'm thinking that if we could draft Detwiler this year and get Alvarez next year I'd be one really happy guy. Last edited by RMF; April 27th, 2007 at 06:53 PM.

April 27th, 2007, 05:34 PM	#2 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	As always with PECOTA, the usual caveats (namely that Davenport's MLEs are horrible) apply... this is why we get Alexi Casilla as a top 10 prospect, for instance. But I think the organizational rankings look pretty accurate. Silver mentions that PECOTA is pessimistic about Tulo, Ubaldo, and Fowler... well, so am I. So is any good numbers-oriented analyst. Looking at the system as a whole: we have a bunch of guys who are all tools and no stats (the three already mentioned, plus guys like Morillo, Nelson, Gomez). Iannetta is the reverse of that, albeit to a lesser degree. Ian Stewart fits into the middle ground (stats/scouts consensus), but that consensus is one of tempered optimism, not unbridled enthusiasm. We have a deep system, with a lot of talent, but we don't have that one absolute stud (Lincecum, Longoria, Maybin, Bruce, etc. - yes, I intentionally named guys who we could have drafted, and who at least some of us here are on record as having preferred) that would vault our system up into the ranks of the true elite.