The Death of a Franchise

[TheIncredibleRox]

Tonight sent me over the edge.

Rockies baseball this season has just been low and lower. This is my 4th season in Denver, and that entire time I've lived a block away from the ballpark. I'm not bothering to check the attendance figures-- I don't need to (and plus, tickets sold does not equl butts in seats).

What I can say unequivocally is, every season I've been here the interest in this team has become less and less. I notice the foot traffic around my building, the number of people at Blake St. Tavern or Breck Brewery or Jacksons before/after gametime, the capacity of the parking lots in the neighborhood... it's gone down every year.

This season is a new level. Honestly, spare opening day, I wouldn't know baseball was in season-- other than viewing Coors Field itself, there just isn't a visible spike in activity.

And what makes that even worse is the fact that, in the few home games we have had, the (alleged) 20k or so in attendance each night have witnessed a few games that the Rox have been out of by the third inning, and a couple more in which we've found creative ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. So even those fans-- the small minority who still find it worthwhile to attend a Rockie's game-- have been leaving those games with sour (or putrid) taste in their mouths.

I'm one person on this board who has never been called a reactionary in this type of matter-- on the list of posters here who consistently take it to ownership, I'm a fair ways down.

It has been said that we have killed the golden goose. I've half-heartedly agreed in the past, yet felt those terms were slightly too harsh and remained optimistic.

But folks, this is it. I'm ringing the alarm. This goose needs a miracle. Rockies baseball, as a brand, is on life support.

[hiaspire]

Much of that is valid, and a big reason why I wouldn't have given current leadership there any extensions or why I don't congratulate them as much for wrecking the MLB team to get high draft picks and strong BA prospect rankings. Having the #2 overall prospect pool wasn't worth the destruction caused along the way to becoming Devil Ray West.

However, I'm not sure why last night would have put you over the edge. It was a hell of a baseball game on the road against probably the best team in the NL. A lot of people seem to have really taken that one way too hard here. Rox played pretty well and just as strong as the Mets last night in an incredibly tight and entertaining game. In the past few games, the Rox have played a couple of their best games overall even if they lost by a tad last night. Things are looking up for this squad I think, and pointing to positive movement ahead as opposed to a lot of the fan pessimism currently.

It's only April guys. They've played the NL West almost straight up (only 3 under .500) and gave the best team in the NL as much as they could handle last night. Baseball is just getting warmed up. We've had some ups and downs early, but that's part of having a young team also that should get better as the season goes along. Already some young guys are stepping up into more prominent roles and emerging as key contributors for now and into the future.

There is a lot to be disappointed with the franchise overall, but on the field there is still some hope and reason to expect improvement ahead I think. If they can get better on the field, there can be more hope for their overall situation.

[RMF]

If they can get better on the field, there can be more hope for their overall situation.

There's a pearl of wisdom.

This team looks to me like one of the 5 worst teams in baseball. They are perpetually in the bottom 1/3 of the league. Losing is what they do. They lose in bunches and win here and there.

[hiaspire]

I'll take that pearl of optimism than a clambake of quitters, but to each their own. I hope that the players won't even when the "fans" do.

Every year we get the over-reaction to April numbers from the so-called more intelligent fans who supposedly don't over-analyze small samples of data. It really is early still guys, and as horrible as people think it is the Rox aren't very far out of things. They have some quality bats that haven't quite waken up yet. They will. As I mentioned before the season, I also think this bullpen has some excellent young talent (and more to come) that could make it one of our best in years. Corpas is certainly starting to show that, as well as guys like Speier starting to take on more importance.

As the summer heats up, the young bats will also. The offense should be improved overall because Helton isn't coming off a hospitalization and hitting the ball pretty well again this year. The bullpen will be better than it was last year. They will be improved from last year, and have a chance at winning the most games in team history. That may not be much compared to winning a championship, but it would be a big step forward with a young up-and-coming team.

Complaining is the pastime here, of course, but if people thow in the towel in April they are going to miss some exciting games ahead like last night. That was fun, not a reason to jump off the ledge. But jump if you guys want.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

Tonight sent me over the edge.....
But folks, this is it. I'm ringing the alarm. This goose needs a miracle. Rockies baseball, as a brand, is on life support.

TIR, welcome to the club. I have some stuff to share with you offline, but you are understandibly recognizing the situation for what it is. I have heard about the team hitting "rock bottom" (not the brewery, btw), every season since 1998.......and every time I've heard that, it has been wrong.

The Rox find ways to make new lows every year. The downtrend was interrupted last season with a surprising 76-win campaign, largely thanks to unusual good health and production from the starting rotation. I felt they wouldn't be able to match that fortuitous circumstance this year, so envisioned no improved in W/L record this year, hence my 76-win forecast.

Indeed, I was too pessimistic last year in calling for 100 losses. My forecast this year may prove way too optimistic. The offense reminds me of the 2003 Detroit Tigers, and that team lost 119 games. We won't lose 119, but who's to say we don't lose 100 this year? It would be several standard deviations below the simmed-projected wins, but then again, the sims did not forecast Tulowitski and Iannetta to be offensive busts, which they have been through 1/8th of our schedule.

The long-term downtrend since 2000 is still intact:

2000 - 82 wins
2001 - 73
2002 - 73
2003 - 74
2004 - 68
2005 - 67
2006 - 76
2007 - 62? (pace after 21 games)

Indeed a depressing trend. We are going nowhere, but at this rate, the Rox will be heading for a stadium near the Las Vegas strip by 2012!

Maybe I can convince John Malone's Liberty Media to move the Braves here if that were to ever happen (Liberty is going to own the Braves).

[hiaspire]

Things were bad when the Rox went from a fairly competitive and beloved team to years of mediocre rebuilding and constant directional and meaningless personnel changes.

That's not the trend now, though. We've broken through that misery. Most every organization that goes through a youth movement has these stages quite understandably. Now is the time when the trend starts going back up, as we witnessed last season. In terms of organizational talent, we arguably have the most ever in franchise history. That isn't a downward trend by any means.

Now it does require a tad more patience than throwing in the towel in April for goodness sakes with a young team, but there are many organizations that would be envious of the talent and future here.

Projecting anything on 21 April games is the height of "intellectual" pursuits. Some things didn't go as planned out of the gate, but some adjustments have already been made and there are still 5 months of baseball ahead.

[Dante Bichette]

How about five years? Is that a large enough sample of data for me to conclude that Clint Hurdle is a loser?

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by Dante Bichette

How about five years? Is that a large enough sample of data for me to conclude that Clint Hurdle is a loser?

How about Joe Torre's first five years as a manager. Is Torre a loser for that worse record? It has a lot to do with talent, and usually much more so than whoever is sitting in the dugout. The Rox haven't had very good talent for a long while now, but it is getting better. Still quite young, but better. Many of their young players have been fostered into productive big leaguers now, and that is a positive thing that gets almost no credit. They do need to build upon last season's IMPROVEMENT and win more games this year, though. Absolutely it wasn't a great start to the season, but also no reason to quit either. They've got more offensive talent than has been displayed thus far, and better days at the plate are ahead.

[hiaspire]

Have the Rox really been that bad this year?

- Won the first series against a pretty strong AZ team.
- Won first road game at SD, but lost two very close 1-run games after.
- Won first road game of LA series, but lost a 2-1 heartbreaker late to lose series.
- Won first road game in AZ, but lost a 4-5 close game late due to bullpen and lost series.
- Split short series with SF.
- Split short series with LA.
- Lost 2 of 3 to SD.
- Were 1 pitch away from taking a road series in NY against the best team in NL assuming they hold onto 10-0 lead today.

Most of their close NL West losses early had bullpen collapse issues that have since been dealt with in terms of personnel reshuffling. We're 2-5 early in 1-run games which is a big reason for the lesser record, but historically better in 1-run games than otherwise under Hurdle. If they've fixed the bullpen somewhat, that'll improve a great deal also.

We don't need to count moral victories or "almosts", but they haven't been quite as bad as it may seem only looking at the black-and-white numbers. Just had a couple issues early that needed to be reworked. Within the grey area, they have some hope to improve upon the early record.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Thats tangential to the overall point; that the fanbase has been alienated at a nearly irreparable level.

I wasn't saying the Rockies are the worst team in baseball, or something like that.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

the fanbase has been alienated at a nearly irreparable level.

I wasn't saying the Rockies are the worst team in baseball, or something like that.

Others have been pounding upon how bad the Rockies are this year, including in this thread related to downward spiral trends. I was responding to that point raised here as I don't believe we are on the decline as stated.

About the fanbase alienation, I already said I agree with many of those points and have myself railed against the destruction caused by our leadership off the field for years. But I still don't understand why an exciting game last night would have been the breaking point for anyone.

The only REALISTIC cure for that is going to have to come from improved play on the field I believe. There isn't going to be any magical savior falling from the sky as most fans want in new ownership. Not realistically in the short-term anyway.

But there is much hope for improvement on the field with the young talent assembled, and that CAN lead toward improvement in the relationship with fans. Winning can cure a lot of things and lead to more possibilities.

The ownership has saved up recently during this rebuilding phase and also are sounding like they are more willing to invest in another key player acquisition if the team looks like it is ready to take that next big step forward as they have done in the past.

It really is going to come down to the players on the field now showing some improvement and winning some fans back on the field with their enhanced play. Once that happens, I think a couple more positive dominoes could be triggered to start to recover what has been lost with the fans.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Have the Rox really been that bad this year?

- Won the first series against a pretty strong AZ team.
- Won first road game at SD, but lost two very close 1-run games after.
- Won first road game of LA series, but lost a 2-1 heartbreaker late to lose series.
- Won first road game in AZ, but lost a 4-5 close game late due to bullpen and lost series.
- Split short series with SF.
- Split short series with LA.
- Lost 2 of 3 to SD.
- Were 1 pitch away from taking a road series in NY against the best team in NL assuming they hold onto 10-0 lead today.

OK, I'll give my "reasons to be optimistic" in a moment.

First, to answer the question: Yes, the Rockies really have been "that bad" so far. Their Pythagorean record coming into today's game was precisely the same as their real-world record: 8-13. Which clubs have worse Pythagorean records? The Nationals and the Royals. That's it. So they aren't five games under through bad luck. They've really been bad.

Now, the reasons to be optimistic. I've said before that I think the NL West this year has 3 of the 5 best clubs in the league: the Dodgers, the Padres, and the D'backs. (I know the Mets are one of the other Top 5 clubs, and I'm tending toward saying the Brewers are in there, too ... but you could make an argument that as long as Pujols is on their roster the Cards should be in there instead. Whatever. The point is that after hitting bottom in 2005, the NL West is now the best division in the league.)

So far, the Rockies have played:

6 against AZ
6 against SD
5 against LA
2 against SF
3 against NY

So that's 20 of their first 22 against 3 of the Top 5 in the league. No beating up on the Nationals and Pirates there.

The combined (real world) records of the teams they've played: 58-41. That's about .590 ball. So maybe the competition's just been plain good.

Now the bad news: some of these clubs have, of course, built up their healthy W-L records in part by beating up on the Rockies. And the unbalanced schedule means the NL West Top 3 will just keep coming. In fact, there's about 39 more games to be played against those clubs.

As usual (and I think this is a little more pronounced in the Rockies than it is in other clubs -- maybe someone can crunch the numbers?), the Rockies have big trouble against the good pitchers and feast on the 4th/5th starter types. The problem here is that the NL West has some fine 4th/5th starters -- guys like David Wells and Greg Maddux.

So there's my reason for optimism. The easier part of the schedule comes later. Way later when it comes to getting clubs like the Nationals and Pirates at Coors.

So why have I been down on the Rockies' chances? Well, because I just think this club is clearly inferior to both the Dodgers and Padres. They'll need some major injuries for the Rox to have a serious chance at competing. The D'backs also look superior, although I'd say that's a closer call. But with 3 clubs ahead of you who are better on paper, you're in a real tough spot.

[RMF]

the fanbase has been alienated at a nearly irreparable level.

Incredible I don't believe that at all. I think the Denver fans are relatively sophisticated. There are a lot of baseball fans in Colorado. People aren't going to show up until the Rockies have a winner. That is their right. They've earned it by sitting through a lot of horrible baseball. The fans liked the power game. We liked Planet Coors. It gave us something distinct, it put us on the map. We also like winning teams. Right now we've got neither.

Once the Rockies have a winner the fans will come back and how. The Denver fans really stuck with this team through all kinds of horrible mismanagement. Ownership gave up on the fans first not the other way around. If those Forbes #'s are to be believed the Rockies are in very good financial shape. You hope they'll take that $$$ and put it back into the franchise moving forward.

It's interesting to see those horrific years amounted to rather small financial losses. Not the mass panic and hysteria the boys on blake street would have have us believe. Ownership and management have continually failed us. The goose isn't dead it's just more sophisticated.

The real crime is that in 10+ years the Rockies continue to do things the Rockies way. Cheaply and with no vision. They've neglected the fanbase but the fanbase will respond to a winning team.

[Heltonfan]

First, to answer the question: Yes, the Rockies really have been "that bad" so far. Their Pythagorean record coming into today's game was precisely the same as their real-world record: 8-13.

Their component stats are better than their Pythag, though. Going into today's game, they were playing .425 ball by the component stats; it's up to .456 now. So they've been unlucky, by a margin of right around one win.

You're absolutely right about the schedule strength issue, though. Based on my preseason projections, we've been playing against .533 opposition. That's nothing short of brutal.

So, adjusting our component winning percentage to reflect the quality of competition, we get a team playing .489 ball so far. I had the Rockies projected at .481 entering the season, so we haven't seen anything that should meaningfully alter our assessment of how good this team really is.

Well, because I just think this club is clearly inferior to both the Dodgers and Padres.

Yep. San Diego in particular - on paper, I think they're easily the best team in the league, and they certainly haven't disappointed in the early going.

[RMF]

I've seen a few threads referring to Aspire as a scientist. When did this happen? Is this a joke? Is web development now considered a serious scientific discipline? Run on sentences and horrible punctuation doesn't make Aspire a scientist. Believe me, I know a thing or two about that.

I come here for therapy. I come hear to laugh. Occassionally I like to read something brainy. The bottom line is that if you've got a good team you'll probably win more than you lose.

Dan O'dowd told us on multiple occassions that this was a +.500 team. I'm willing to wait until later in the year to start throwing the big haymakers. But I'm worried about our pitching staff. I'm worried about considtency and professionalism.

There is no question that the offense will get better. How could it not. They can't slug .358 for the entire season. They're middle of the pack in OBP. We've always had a huge slump in the middle of the season. Getting off to a fast start is of paramount importance to this club. You might say that it's early but already 1/8 of the baseball season is over.