June Draft

hiaspire · April 20th, 2007, 04:08 PM

Thought we had a thread on draft prospects but couldn't find it...

Baseball America came out with their top 30 midseason draft update today. The Rox have the #8 overall selection I believe, so should be in position to get a very good prospect (thanks to poorer MLB results still). It was said during last year's draft that this year would be stronger, but I don't think that panned out to be the case quite so much. At least not for college pitching as the Rox like to focus on.

A college lefty (David Price) has been penciled into the #1 pick expectations since last year and should go to the D-Rays at the top.

Given the lack of college pitching depth and the Rockies historic interest in more developed college arms, it might make sense for them to grab one of the few good ones with the #8 overall pick and then grab younger bats throughout the rest of the draft where there is more quality numbers.

Andrew Brackman (6'10 hoopster with 99mph heat at times) would be an interesting figure who'd fit that strategy but take a little longer to develop probably. He hasn't done quite as well as people hoped in him leaving the court to focus on fastballs, but still figures to be a top 10 pick (BA's had him from #3 to #6 today) based upon his physical skills and upside. How he does down the stretch could really cement whether he's a top 5 choice or slides a bit. College lefties Ross Detwiler and Daniel Moskos (Team USA closer moved into the Clemson rotation) are projected #7 and #8.

Outside of college pitching...

Julio Borbon is another interesting college prospect OFer who gets Johnny Damon comparisons because of attitude, effort, speed, 20 HR type power, etc. But his arm is his weakness which hurts a little more in Coors Field. He could be a good fit for some of our needs, though, as well and rated #10.

Matt LaPorta fell in the draft previously due to injury but is back on a mission his senior year and putting up player of the year type numbers. The Rox have drafted 1B and moved them around because of Helton (Atkins/Hawpe/Shealy to KC) but LaPorta could be picked and kept at 1B and developed as a possible replacement down the line with his power (and probably not that far away as a college senior excelling). He seems like a classic Blake Street Bomber in the making. If the Rox turned that corner and are intent on trying to deal Helton again (hopefully coming off a stronger campaign), then LaPorta makes even more sense.

Matt Wieters is a very tall switch-hitting catcher with a closer's arm and one of the better bats in the game. I picked both him and Brackman up in my sim league last year in hopes they'd go early in this year's draft and really think highly of Weiters especially. He won't last to us, though, and marked down at #2 right now at BA.

There are lots of high schoolers who could get the Rox nodd also (Vitters 3B, Bumgarner LHP, Porcello and Harvey and Beavan RHP, etc.). I know more about the college players at this point, and think they could also help the Rockies rebuild faster so that'll be my initial focus as a hopeful fan.

Early conclusions? Powerful LaPorta or CF Borbon would be very good positional fits for us, and right now I'd probably be happy with either and both seem like they could reasonably be available for us. I might have to pass on them, though, if the Rox didn't think quality college arms could be found later and pick Brackman for upside potential or Detwiler/Moskos before the quality arms were gone.

So my initial personal draft preference for them is to go with Brackman's upside if he's available (rated #6 with us having #8), and if he's not then take LaPorta's big bat. Both are powerful players with high ceilings to potentially make a meaningful impact. Neither are probably the safest picks, though, but the quality of our system's depth probably allows the Rox to go after some big upside gambles. Always fun as we learn more about these players as the draft approaches. I might sway toward another selection upon further review but I like both of those guys with impact potential. Rox need to find some stars and not just decent young contributors to reach that next level.

BigRapidsJackass · April 20th, 2007, 08:39 PM

Is Julio Borbon related to Pedros Sr and Jr?

(Right now Pedro Sr would be preferable to Matt Herges)

RMF · April 20th, 2007, 09:01 PM

Let's face it price is everything for us with SP. Detwiler is right up the Rockies alley. I was hoping we'd get Vitters but apparently he's now a lock for a top 5.

My Prediction for the 07 draft is that more $$$ will be spent then ever before and by a pretty substantial margin. I also predict that 20 players will be signed after the first round who will get larger contracts than our 1st round selection.

Burgess may have contact issues. I don't like players with contact issues especially HS kids. I want absolutely nothing to do with Brackman.

My prediction would be Detwiler. I'd be fine with seeing the Rockies take Matt Domiguez. As usual our second round pick will be a million dollar waste.

Julio Borbon could be a Rockies surprise. I'd like to stay away from guys like Laporta, Mills. Can't imagine what we'd do with them.

Savery/Schmidt are guys I can see the Rockies having interest in if we get deals.

Wouldn't Max Scherzer be an interesting SP candidate?

RMF · April 20th, 2007, 09:06 PM

One thing about Organizational depth. Any franchise is 2 years away from not having any. What I wouldn't give for a Jay Bruce or Travis Snider in our system.

Detwiler was a Pop Warner QB so I think I know what direction we'll be going. Just make a list of players who were ever SS's and QB's and you've got the Rockies Draft Board.

hiaspire · April 20th, 2007, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RMF

I want absolutely nothing to do with Brackman.

Brackman = the next Chris Young.

RMF · April 20th, 2007, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Brackman = the next Chris Young.

He's the worst SP on his college team. He's probably out of our budgeted range.

hiaspire · April 21st, 2007, 07:52 AM

Not if we don't rely upon the small samples so much for a partial season. His stuff is better than any of them and his stats aren't so bad (just not as great as hoped). He's pitched almost as many innings this year as he has in his entire career and his velocity is down a bit and he hasn't been as sharp with his breaking stuff as he's been in the past. The raw materials are there, though. This is his first real season as a full-time baseball player, but also had basketball coaches pressing him to come back for months.

The cost is another issue, but he's probably cheaper now than if he was as dominant as expected. I think the two-sport rule also makes it more affordable spread a bonus out over a longer period of time.

TheIncredibleRox · April 21st, 2007, 10:51 AM

I played against LaPorta extensively. Bar none, best raw power I've ever seen on an amateur level.

I remember one year, perhaps his junior year in HS, he was in the local HR derby, which included players from 6 or 7 local teams. He hit something like 27 homeruns. I think second place hit 6 or 7. And at least half those also-rans were draft picks.

Milledge had amazing power. But it was more Gary Sheffield power--just amazing bat speed and line drives, some of which go over the fence. But LaPorta hit more dingers, and has more of the 'classic' power stroke. Lots of loft, lots of force.... never seen one guy blast so many tape-measure shots.

That said, he's only so impressive as a pure hitter. I got the occasional fastball by him (and if I was hitting 84, I was having a great day), and remember having him out front on a few splitters.

In HS (and even for some time at UF), he was a catcher, but it was obvious that wouldn't be his position as a pro. Decent arm, but has a little hitch in his throwing motion. Combine that with his big body, and his natural position is 1B. I wish LF was a possibility, but I could see it being somewhat Dante-esque. He isn't quite as lumbering as Shealy, but he's probably closer to Shealy than Holliday.

Heltonfan · April 21st, 2007, 11:34 AM

Quick-and-dirty calculations: LaPorta is currently carrying a .466 ABR at UF. If my college-to-pros equivalencies are to be believed, that translates to .264 in the majors. Running a multi-year projection on him, the same way as I'd do it for a guy playing in the minors, he projects at .240 right now.

Those are some insanely great numbers: the only season I have in my college database better than LaPorta's '07 is Khalil Greene's 2002. But given that he's already 22, and has little or no defensive value, I'd be reluctant to take him as high as #8. I'm also a bit concerned about the fact that he's a senior; it might be wise to look at him in the same way as we'd look at a player repeating a level in the minors, where he's dominating in large part due to his experience (the dramatic improvement in K/BB numbers supports this idea, I think).

Of course, I haven't looked at any of the other candidates in depth yet, so I can't say that LaPorta isn't the best of what's likely to be available to us.

hiaspire · April 21st, 2007, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

I'm also a bit concerned about the fact that he's a senior; it might be wise to look at him in the same way as we'd look at a player repeating a level in the minors, where he's dominating in large part due to his experience (the dramatic improvement in K/BB numbers supports this idea, I think).

Maybe, but I don't quite agree with that. His walks may also be due to being pitched around more as well this year than he was when he was a youngster on the team. He didn't need as much experience to tear the cover off the ball either as a sophomore hitting .328 with 26 HRs to lead the nation I believe. Him "repeating" a level made complete sense for him with his health last year and I can't hold that against him. Last year's stats and improvement from that has to be thrown out somewhat due to injury.

The Rox could have just taken care of this by drafting him in a later round and paying him based upon his talent to already secure him within the franchise as I was hoping and discussed last year during the draft.

Him having played behind the plate (as a freshman last I believe) also works well with the Rockies seeing as they sometimes carry an additional pitcher and need more bench flexibility. Maybe he could serve as an emergency catcher if needed.

Heltonfan · April 21st, 2007, 01:10 PM

Quote:

He didn't need as much experience to tear the cover off the ball either as a sophomore hitting .328 with 26 HRs to lead the nation I believe.

Well, sure. The guy is a great college hitter any way you slice it. But if his true ability level is closer to his '05 performance than his '07, that makes a huge difference when figuring out how high he should go in the draft.

JaxRoxdisciple · April 21st, 2007, 02:25 PM

id wouldnt mind the rox drafting laporta. hes been pretty stellar for UF. this season he became UF's all time home run leader. the major problem with laporta is hes boras client. the redsox drafted him last season and he never signed.

hiaspire · April 21st, 2007, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

But if his true ability level is closer to his '05 performance than his '07, that makes a huge difference when figuring out how high he should go in the draft.

Coming out of that '05 season, he was one of the front runners for high draft selection his junior season (certain top 10 it seemed). He would have gone high then if not for his troubled junior follow-up and other concerns.

Him actually being a senior really helps with leverage I think in the negotiations even if he has Boras. He can't return to college like he did last year.

The price on these guys will also be something to consider. I'd hope that the Rox spend some more of their savings on their primary directive now in building young talent. Brackman and LaPorta might be too much, and I'm not sure what the Red Sox offered, but I would think we could spend something around the money they gave Reynolds.

JaxRoxdisciple · April 21st, 2007, 06:24 PM

laporta being a senior wont matter. he could take the route hochevar took in 05 when the dodgers drafted him. the dodgers couldnt sign him. boras advised him to pitch in independant ball and reenter in the 06 draft.

a couple months ago i was high on micheal burgess. i wouldnt mind the rox picking him up. the outfield talent in the farm is kind of bleak. but im hearing the orioles and brewers have interest in him. i believe he has signed an loi to play for one of arizona state university.

hiaspire · April 21st, 2007, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JaxRoxdisciple

laporta being a senior wont matter. he could take the route hochevar took in 05 when the dodgers drafted him. the dodgers couldnt sign him. boras advised him to pitch in independant ball and reenter in the 06 draft.

That's a possibility. Hochevar wasn't a senior, though, when he did that. Certainly he could pull a Matt Harrington and never sign and keep going through draft after draft. LaPorta will be 23 during the upcoming off-season and you wouldn't think can keep not signing and going into the next draft too long. Is he going to wait until he's drafted 4 times before starting his career if he did as suggested? Coors Field also should seem like a nice place to utilize that power of his.

April 20th, 2007, 04:08 PM	#1 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 481	June Draft Thought we had a thread on draft prospects but couldn't find it... Baseball America came out with their top 30 midseason draft update today. The Rox have the #8 overall selection I believe, so should be in position to get a very good prospect (thanks to poorer MLB results still). It was said during last year's draft that this year would be stronger, but I don't think that panned out to be the case quite so much. At least not for college pitching as the Rox like to focus on. A college lefty (David Price) has been penciled into the #1 pick expectations since last year and should go to the D-Rays at the top. Given the lack of college pitching depth and the Rockies historic interest in more developed college arms, it might make sense for them to grab one of the few good ones with the #8 overall pick and then grab younger bats throughout the rest of the draft where there is more quality numbers. Andrew Brackman (6'10 hoopster with 99mph heat at times) would be an interesting figure who'd fit that strategy but take a little longer to develop probably. He hasn't done quite as well as people hoped in him leaving the court to focus on fastballs, but still figures to be a top 10 pick (BA's had him from #3 to #6 today) based upon his physical skills and upside. How he does down the stretch could really cement whether he's a top 5 choice or slides a bit. College lefties Ross Detwiler and Daniel Moskos (Team USA closer moved into the Clemson rotation) are projected #7 and #8. Outside of college pitching... Julio Borbon is another interesting college prospect OFer who gets Johnny Damon comparisons because of attitude, effort, speed, 20 HR type power, etc. But his arm is his weakness which hurts a little more in Coors Field. He could be a good fit for some of our needs, though, as well and rated #10. Matt LaPorta fell in the draft previously due to injury but is back on a mission his senior year and putting up player of the year type numbers. The Rox have drafted 1B and moved them around because of Helton (Atkins/Hawpe/Shealy to KC) but LaPorta could be picked and kept at 1B and developed as a possible replacement down the line with his power (and probably not that far away as a college senior excelling). He seems like a classic Blake Street Bomber in the making. If the Rox turned that corner and are intent on trying to deal Helton again (hopefully coming off a stronger campaign), then LaPorta makes even more sense. Matt Wieters is a very tall switch-hitting catcher with a closer's arm and one of the better bats in the game. I picked both him and Brackman up in my sim league last year in hopes they'd go early in this year's draft and really think highly of Weiters especially. He won't last to us, though, and marked down at #2 right now at BA. There are lots of high schoolers who could get the Rox nodd also (Vitters 3B, Bumgarner LHP, Porcello and Harvey and Beavan RHP, etc.). I know more about the college players at this point, and think they could also help the Rockies rebuild faster so that'll be my initial focus as a hopeful fan. Early conclusions? Powerful LaPorta or CF Borbon would be very good positional fits for us, and right now I'd probably be happy with either and both seem like they could reasonably be available for us. I might have to pass on them, though, if the Rox didn't think quality college arms could be found later and pick Brackman for upside potential or Detwiler/Moskos before the quality arms were gone. So my initial personal draft preference for them is to go with Brackman's upside if he's available (rated #6 with us having #8), and if he's not then take LaPorta's big bat. Both are powerful players with high ceilings to potentially make a meaningful impact. Neither are probably the safest picks, though, but the quality of our system's depth probably allows the Rox to go after some big upside gambles. Always fun as we learn more about these players as the draft approaches. I might sway toward another selection upon further review but I like both of those guys with impact potential. Rox need to find some stars and not just decent young contributors to reach that next level. Last edited by hiaspire; April 20th, 2007 at 06:47 PM.

April 20th, 2007, 09:06 PM	#4 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	One thing about Organizational depth. Any franchise is 2 years away from not having any. What I wouldn't give for a Jay Bruce or Travis Snider in our system. Detwiler was a Pop Warner QB so I think I know what direction we'll be going. Just make a list of players who were ever SS's and QB's and you've got the Rockies Draft Board. Last edited by RMF; April 20th, 2007 at 09:10 PM.

April 21st, 2007, 07:52 AM	#7 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 481	Not if we don't rely upon the small samples so much for a partial season. His stuff is better than any of them and his stats aren't so bad (just not as great as hoped). He's pitched almost as many innings this year as he has in his entire career and his velocity is down a bit and he hasn't been as sharp with his breaking stuff as he's been in the past. The raw materials are there, though. This is his first real season as a full-time baseball player, but also had basketball coaches pressing him to come back for months. The cost is another issue, but he's probably cheaper now than if he was as dominant as expected. I think the two-sport rule also makes it more affordable spread a bonus out over a longer period of time. Last edited by hiaspire; April 21st, 2007 at 08:12 AM.

April 21st, 2007, 11:34 AM	#9 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Quick-and-dirty calculations: LaPorta is currently carrying a .466 ABR at UF. If my college-to-pros equivalencies are to be believed, that translates to .264 in the majors. Running a multi-year projection on him, the same way as I'd do it for a guy playing in the minors, he projects at .240 right now. Those are some insanely great numbers: the only season I have in my college database better than LaPorta's '07 is Khalil Greene's 2002. But given that he's already 22, and has little or no defensive value, I'd be reluctant to take him as high as #8. I'm also a bit concerned about the fact that he's a senior; it might be wise to look at him in the same way as we'd look at a player repeating a level in the minors, where he's dominating in large part due to his experience (the dramatic improvement in K/BB numbers supports this idea, I think). Of course, I haven't looked at any of the other candidates in depth yet, so I can't say that LaPorta isn't the best of what's likely to be available to us. Last edited by Heltonfan; April 21st, 2007 at 11:53 AM.

April 20th, 2007, 08:39 PM	#2 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Is Julio Borbon related to Pedros Sr and Jr? (Right now Pedro Sr would be preferable to Matt Herges)

April 20th, 2007, 09:01 PM	#3 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Let's face it price is everything for us with SP. Detwiler is right up the Rockies alley. I was hoping we'd get Vitters but apparently he's now a lock for a top 5. My Prediction for the 07 draft is that more $$$ will be spent then ever before and by a pretty substantial margin. I also predict that 20 players will be signed after the first round who will get larger contracts than our 1st round selection. Burgess may have contact issues. I don't like players with contact issues especially HS kids. I want absolutely nothing to do with Brackman. My prediction would be Detwiler. I'd be fine with seeing the Rockies take Matt Domiguez. As usual our second round pick will be a million dollar waste. Julio Borbon could be a Rockies surprise. I'd like to stay away from guys like Laporta, Mills. Can't imagine what we'd do with them. Savery/Schmidt are guys I can see the Rockies having interest in if we get deals. Wouldn't Max Scherzer be an interesting SP candidate?

April 21st, 2007, 10:51 AM	#8 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 322	I played against LaPorta extensively. Bar none, best raw power I've ever seen on an amateur level. I remember one year, perhaps his junior year in HS, he was in the local HR derby, which included players from 6 or 7 local teams. He hit something like 27 homeruns. I think second place hit 6 or 7. And at least half those also-rans were draft picks. Milledge had amazing power. But it was more Gary Sheffield power--just amazing bat speed and line drives, some of which go over the fence. But LaPorta hit more dingers, and has more of the 'classic' power stroke. Lots of loft, lots of force.... never seen one guy blast so many tape-measure shots. That said, he's only so impressive as a pure hitter. I got the occasional fastball by him (and if I was hitting 84, I was having a great day), and remember having him out front on a few splitters. In HS (and even for some time at UF), he was a catcher, but it was obvious that wouldn't be his position as a pro. Decent arm, but has a little hitch in his throwing motion. Combine that with his big body, and his natural position is 1B. I wish LF was a possibility, but I could see it being somewhat Dante-esque. He isn't quite as lumbering as Shealy, but he's probably closer to Shealy than Holliday.

April 21st, 2007, 02:25 PM	#12 (permalink)
JaxRoxdisciple Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Jacksonville FL Posts: 3	id wouldnt mind the rox drafting laporta. hes been pretty stellar for UF. this season he became UF's all time home run leader. the major problem with laporta is hes boras client. the redsox drafted him last season and he never signed.

April 21st, 2007, 06:24 PM	#14 (permalink)
JaxRoxdisciple Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Jacksonville FL Posts: 3	laporta being a senior wont matter. he could take the route hochevar took in 05 when the dodgers drafted him. the dodgers couldnt sign him. boras advised him to pitch in independant ball and reenter in the 06 draft. a couple months ago i was high on micheal burgess. i wouldnt mind the rox picking him up. the outfield talent in the farm is kind of bleak. but im hearing the orioles and brewers have interest in him. i believe he has signed an loi to play for one of arizona state university.