The Year of the Pitcher???

Roxpert · 04-10-2007, 12:16 AM

I know it's VERRRRY early (not even 5% of the season's schedule has been played in baseball), but am I detecting a bit of a trend of strong pitching performances, and not by just those with Rockies uniforms.

Tonight in baseball, there was an average of 8.2 runs per game, and great pitching duals, such as in San Diego where Matt Cain flirted with a no-hitter, and still lost 1-0.

Through yesterday, the National League's ERA was 3.78, and the American League ERA was 4.32. While this is a small sample size covering one week of games (less if you're in Cleveland), it does cover 1,586 MLB innings, so may mean something. As most baseball fans know, such a low run scoring environment hasn't existed in baseball since the league expanded in 1993. You'd have to go to 1992 to see anything like this.

On the hitting side of the ledger, NL batters are hitting .255/.323/.400, while the AL has posted an anemic .249/.324/.395, unprecedented lackluster offense given the DH rule, compared to the NL numbers which include pitchers hitting. MLB is hitting .252/.323/.398 overall.

This is like a return to the 1980's if it holds up, so bears watching. The cold weather in the central and eastern part of the country may be responsible, but I remember other cold Aprils during this offensive era, and none of them started off this poorly for the hitters. Could the PED crackdown finally be having an effect? Too early for the national media, or even us, to speculate about, but this could be an interesting story if this "mini-trend" continues.

Roxpert · 04-12-2007, 02:24 PM

Here's a little more updated information. There have now been over 8,500 ABs and over 2,200 innings pitched in this early baseball season. The numbers are even leaning more toward the pitcher since my first post a few days ago.....

MLB hitters are batting .248/.320/.388, and it's remarkably consistent between the two leagues. AL hitters are at .248/.320/.392 while NL hitters are at .249/.320/.385. Considering that 5.7% of the ABs in the NL are coming from the pitchers, the state of early offense in the AL is woeful.

MLB pitchers have an overall ERA of 3.84. Oddly, the AL ERA is higher at 4.21 versus the NL's 3.51 (situational luck?).

The average MLB team has racked up 55 striketouts and issued 28 walks in 75 innings of work. 6.6 K's and 3.4 BB's per 9 innings is consistent with the modern MLB averages, so no real evidence of umpire strike zone changes are obvious here.

However, the league average of .248 is evidence of a signifcantly lower BABIP this season, which COULD be due to a large strike zone. Why? If the hitters are falling behind in the count more often due to a liberal strike zone, they would tend to take more defensive swings to avoid strikeouts, thus resulting in softer contact. Softer contact could lower the overall league level of BABIP.

The average AL team is scoring 4.4 runs per game, and the average NL team is averaging 3.9 runs per game. These are the lowest runs per game averages since 1992, when the AL averaged 4.3 runs and the NL averaged 3.9 runs.

Again, 10 days does not make a trend, but the low scores are not only happening where there's bad weather. We've seen it take place on the east coast, midwest, and west coasts. It has been remarkable so far.

04-10-2007, 12:16 AM	#1 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,059	The Year of the Pitcher??? I know it's VERRRRY early (not even 5% of the season's schedule has been played in baseball), but am I detecting a bit of a trend of strong pitching performances, and not by just those with Rockies uniforms. Tonight in baseball, there was an average of 8.2 runs per game, and great pitching duals, such as in San Diego where Matt Cain flirted with a no-hitter, and still lost 1-0. Through yesterday, the National League's ERA was 3.78, and the American League ERA was 4.32. While this is a small sample size covering one week of games (less if you're in Cleveland), it does cover 1,586 MLB innings, so may mean something. As most baseball fans know, such a low run scoring environment hasn't existed in baseball since the league expanded in 1993. You'd have to go to 1992 to see anything like this. On the hitting side of the ledger, NL batters are hitting .255/.323/.400, while the AL has posted an anemic .249/.324/.395, unprecedented lackluster offense given the DH rule, compared to the NL numbers which include pitchers hitting. MLB is hitting .252/.323/.398 overall. This is like a return to the 1980's if it holds up, so bears watching. The cold weather in the central and eastern part of the country may be responsible, but I remember other cold Aprils during this offensive era, and none of them started off this poorly for the hitters. Could the PED crackdown finally be having an effect? Too early for the national media, or even us, to speculate about, but this could be an interesting story if this "mini-trend" continues.

04-12-2007, 02:24 PM	#2 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,059	Here's a little more updated information. There have now been over 8,500 ABs and over 2,200 innings pitched in this early baseball season. The numbers are even leaning more toward the pitcher since my first post a few days ago..... MLB hitters are batting .248/.320/.388, and it's remarkably consistent between the two leagues. AL hitters are at .248/.320/.392 while NL hitters are at .249/.320/.385. Considering that 5.7% of the ABs in the NL are coming from the pitchers, the state of early offense in the AL is woeful. MLB pitchers have an overall ERA of 3.84. Oddly, the AL ERA is higher at 4.21 versus the NL's 3.51 (situational luck?). The average MLB team has racked up 55 striketouts and issued 28 walks in 75 innings of work. 6.6 K's and 3.4 BB's per 9 innings is consistent with the modern MLB averages, so no real evidence of umpire strike zone changes are obvious here. However, the league average of .248 is evidence of a signifcantly lower BABIP this season, which COULD be due to a large strike zone. Why? If the hitters are falling behind in the count more often due to a liberal strike zone, they would tend to take more defensive swings to avoid strikeouts, thus resulting in softer contact. Softer contact could lower the overall league level of BABIP. The average AL team is scoring 4.4 runs per game, and the average NL team is averaging 3.9 runs per game. These are the lowest runs per game averages since 1992, when the AL averaged 4.3 runs and the NL averaged 3.9 runs. Again, 10 days does not make a trend, but the low scores are not only happening where there's bad weather. We've seen it take place on the east coast, midwest, and west coasts. It has been remarkable so far. Last edited by Roxpert; 04-12-2007 at 02:30 PM.