Rox at Padres, 4-6 to 4-8 Series Thread - Page 3

hiaspire · April 7th, 2007, 10:22 PM

If that would have been Hawkins blowing the game instead we would have never heard the end of it. Corpas fans get their wish tonight with more than an inning in an important situation.

Hey, I like the kid too but he's going to give up some hits also and make some mistakes. Even if he'll get a pass for them unlike others. He'll be a big part of the bullpen this year and rightfully so, but to move up the ladder he needs to take advantage of the opportunities that come along also.

BigRapidsJackass · April 7th, 2007, 11:23 PM

Corpas pitched well. He got burned by a bloop single to lead off the inning, and then a deep flyball that (as Frazier pointed out) probably would've been caught by Holliday if he hadn't been playing in (runner on second/1 out). Unlike Hawkins in Game 1, he didn't fall behind/walk anyone, or really do anything other than suffer from some bad breaks.

By the way, Frazier is wrong to suggest that Holliday should've been playing at normal depth. In this situation, you need to avoid the most common scenarios -- the base hit that drops in front of the outfielder. You also want the outfielder to have a chance to make a play at the plate on a grounder that gets through the IF. You don't need to worry about giving up extra bases because any base hit will probably lose the game.

Hear that? I said, "Hurdle was right." (Or, at least the guy who positions the outfielders was right.).

Sometimes bad things happen.

HoyaRoxFan · April 8th, 2007, 12:02 AM

While I'm still cool with Hawkins and think he'll be a valuable piece of the bullpen for at least part of the year, drawing a comparison between Hawkins on 4/2 and Corpas tonight doesn't work and isn't fair.

Hawkins on 4/2 faced 6 batters - he fell behind in the count on the first two batters, ultimately allowing 2 hits. He then got a one-pitch flyball out, intentionally walked Drew, allowed another hit that scored two runs, and a sacrifice fly that allowed a run.

By my count, that's 3 bad at-bats resulting in hits (2 of whom scored), one good out, and one strategic move.

Meanwhile, Corpas tonight faced 7 batters - a one pitch pop out, a four pitch K, a six-pitch K against Bowen (Jackass, he did fall behind here 3-1 BUT he battled back) in the 8th. In the 9th, he gave a single on his second pitch, got an out on a sacrifice bunt, intentionally walked a guy, and gave up a double on the next pitch.

Again, by my count, that's 4 good outs, two bad at-bats resulting in hits (1 of whom scored), and one strategic move.

They both resulted in losses, but I think Corpas clearly had the better outing.

HoyaRoxFan · April 8th, 2007, 04:53 PM

Right, so about that Hawkins fellow... I'm quickly losing my cool with him. Eww.

BigRapidsJackass · April 8th, 2007, 06:52 PM

That was a really, really tough loss. I've never seen Cook pitch better; awfully hard to see him lose on a 332 ft HR that made it "out" by about 2 inches.

I can't even pick on Hawkins today. I thought he threw pretty well. One well hit ball, and then the winner was a classic "infield in" base hit.

And I also can't pick on the Rox hitters. Peavy has been dominating in both his starts this year, and the Padres 1-2-3 in the bullpen are, plain and simple, the best in baseball.

Very well played games all weekend, and the good news is the clubs give the initial appearance of being quite closely matched.

EDIT: I'm curious what people think. One out, K Greene on third after a triple. Kouzmanoff up. Do you walk the bases loaded to have the force/play the infield at double play depth? I thought that was what Hurdle was going to do, but I'm not going to second guess him ... Kouzmanoff has been struggling, so I thought it made sense to go after him. If you walk him and then walk Cruz, you've got a pinch hitter up to try to get the run home. The Pads would probably go with LHH rookie McAnulty or LHH Termel Sledge, in which case the Rox would counter with Fuentes. Or if the Pads tried to out-think Hurdle (imagine that!), you'd get someone like switch hitter Geoff Blum. Again, I'm not saying Hurdle was wrong here, but you can certainly make an argument that Fuentes vs. a lefty or Fuentes vs. Blum gives you a better chance of getting a K or pop-up to get out of the jam. What would you have done??

Roxpert · April 8th, 2007, 09:39 PM

Yes, Jackass, I wouldn't have left Fuentes rot in the bullpen today, or yesterday, for that matter. He's our best reliever, and we didn't use "our best" in either late loss.

Notice that Bud Black DID use his best, Trevor Hoffman, in both wins, even though they weren't save situations. To not use Fuentes in either game against the tough Padres bullpen wasn't giving our team its best chance to win over the weekend. So Hurdle gets a (small) part of the blame for today's and/or yesterday's losses. Of course, the main blame goes to our listless offense (or credit to their great pitching).

Finally, all throughout my years following baseball, with a potential winning run at 3rd base and less than two outs, you walk the bases loaded to set up a force play at the plate. There are exceptions, depending on matchups, but in this case (as you point out), we had the fresh Fuentes available to face a probable lefthanded hitter with the bases loaded and one out (or Blum). Hawkins also doesn't strike people out anymore, and being able to get a strikeout with that runner at 3rd and less than two outs is critical. Fuentes may or may not have done that, but we stood a better chance of surviving into the 11th inning if he was in there instead of Hawkins.....with the bases loaded.

wolf213 · April 8th, 2007, 09:50 PM

Its funny, a lot of the media outlets I have read pegged us as having the best offense in the division...... I want to know when that offense is going to show up, and it better be long before we play the Nationals.

Tough losses both nights, but looking at the bright side of things, we were competitive and where in every ballgame. Things just need to start clicking for us to be successful.

Roxpert · April 8th, 2007, 09:55 PM

People seem to forget how inept our offense was during our slide last season in July and August. The final stats were beefed up from a September of "pre-humidor" style baseball at Coors Field.

The same affliction that the team suffered from in 2006 has struck early again.......the inability to get a late clutch hit, or score late, in close games. And I'm still waiting to witness Todd Helton's resurgent power.

Heltonfan · April 8th, 2007, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Finally, all throughout my years following baseball, with a potential winning run at 3rd base and less than two outs, you walk the bases loaded to set up a force play at the plate. There are exceptions, depending on matchups, but in this case (as you point out), we had the fresh Fuentes available to face a probable lefthanded hitter with the bases loaded and one out (or Blum). Hawkins also doesn't strike people out anymore, and being able to get a strikeout with that runner at 3rd and less than two outs is critical. Fuentes may or may not have done that, but we stood a better chance of surviving into the 11th inning if he was in there instead of Hawkins.....with the bases loaded.

We've gone over this before, but setting oneself up for a game-ending walk is a bad idea - particularly with a guy like Fuentes, who isn't exactly a control artist. Walk one guy to set up the double play, sure; there's virtually no risk there. But don't load the bases. I've seen no evidence that having the force play at the plate is of much value, and the risk of the walk-off BB or HBP is all too real.

HoyaRoxFan · April 8th, 2007, 10:17 PM

I dunno.

Admittedly, I made my previous comment, having not actually watched the game yet. But based on the pitch summary in MLB Gameday, it looked like Hawkins had in fact pitched poorly.

I went back and watched just now on MLB.tv and it only seems to confirm my suspicions. The Padres announcers pointed out first that this is the fifth appearance for Hawkins in six games. As the at-bat against Cameron developed, and Hawkins fell to 2-2, one of the announcers suggested that Hawkins was tipping off his pitches, "staying on top of his breaking ball too long." As Cameron fouled another off and then let the count go to 3-2, the announcer said it again, and also indicated that it looks like Hawkins is "slowing up his arm on his changeup." Another foul and then he gets him.

He can't finish off Greene on an 0-2 count.

Then he falls behind against Kouzmanoff (all 5 pitches in the high 90s... he's given up on his other pitches) and never recovers...

This guy has got to get some sessions in with Apodaca and shouldn't be coming into high leverage situations right now. Especially not 5 times in 6 games. He doesn't appear to be managing his pitch location well, and when he does, he's revealing his hand...

Would I walk the bases loaded? I suppose. But more importantly, I don't have Hawkins out there - not right now, I don't. Put someone out there who is pitching well, and maybe we can actually battle the guy at the plate and finish the K or ground it to an infielder - anything but a 98 mile an hour fastball that Hawkins can't put in the right place...

Roxpert · April 8th, 2007, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

We've gone over this before, but setting oneself up for a game-ending walk is a bad idea - particularly with a guy like Fuentes, who isn't exactly a control artist. Walk one guy to set up the double play, sure; there's virtually no risk there. But don't load the bases. I've seen no evidence that having the force play at the plate is of much value, and the risk of the walk-off BB or HBP is all too real.

I remember us discussing this before. It would make for a good chapter in The Book II (if there is one). I am being truthful, however, in my remarks regarding how I've witnessed teams intentionally loading the bases countless times in this exact same "sudden death" situation when the potential winning run is on 3rd base and less than two outs in the bottom of the 9th or extra innings. The infield and outfield are both brought in, and one prays.

The fact that this is the common strategy employed does not make it necessarily the right strategy, obviously. Still, it's what most managers have done over the decades of my watching baseball. In this instance, I think the risk of Fuentes forcing in the winning run is more than offset by his much higher K-rate, and a more favorable matchup. But I admit to not having done the math. Again, it would make for a good chapter in The Book II.

BigRapidsJackass · April 8th, 2007, 10:35 PM

Quote:

But don't load the bases. I've seen no evidence that having the force play at the plate is of much value, and the risk of the walk-off BB or HBP is all too real.

I think you're underestimating the impact of playing the infield in. I agree that there's a lot of risk -- particularly of the HBP (or wild pitch for that matter) with Fuentes. I don't really know that there's an obvious choice here, but the more I think about the more I fall back on the traditional wisdom: if you're gonna lose this one, you're gonna make sure you lose it with your best pitcher out there.

Heltonfan · April 8th, 2007, 10:47 PM

Quote:

I am being truthful, however, in my remarks regarding how I've witnessed teams intentionally loading the bases countless times in this exact same "sudden death" situation...

Oh, I know. I've seen it more times than I care to remember, and I've seen it backfire as often as not.

It's a pretty simple calculation, really. The average MLB walk rate is right around 1 per 10 batters faced. Which means that, when facing two batters, the odds of walking at least one of them are 19% (these odds are even higher for Fuentes, obviously). And what are the odds of inducing a ground ball that a) can't be turned into a double play, b) can't be turned into a tag play at the plate, but c) can be turned into a force-out at the plate? Anyone who thinks it's anywhere near 19% needs to have their head examined.

It's inescapably clear that walking the bases loaded only makes sense if you have an extremely favorable matchup. It will never be a significantly better choice than the alternative, and very often, it will be an absolutely horrific percentage play.

It should of course be noted that this is separate from the question of whether or not to bring in Fuentes. I certainly don't disagree with you on that front.

Heltonfan · April 8th, 2007, 10:51 PM

Quote:

I think you're underestimating the impact of playing the infield in.

I might be. But it's also worth noting that playing the infield in is hardly a risk-free proposition in itself. You increase the odds of getting the out at the plate, but you also increase the odds of letting the ball get through the infield.

BigRapidsJackass · April 9th, 2007, 12:18 AM

That's what I meant, HF.

I would guess that the infield in raises the percentage of a groundball making it through the infield by maybe 50%. With the bases loaded and the infielders at double play depth, perhaps that's only about a 20% increase over the ordinary (bases empty) situation. Of course, these are just guesses. But groundballs like those hit by Kouzmanoff to end the game are double play balls with the infielders at double play depth.

April 8th, 2007, 06:52 PM	#35 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	That was a really, really tough loss. I've never seen Cook pitch better; awfully hard to see him lose on a 332 ft HR that made it "out" by about 2 inches. I can't even pick on Hawkins today. I thought he threw pretty well. One well hit ball, and then the winner was a classic "infield in" base hit. And I also can't pick on the Rox hitters. Peavy has been dominating in both his starts this year, and the Padres 1-2-3 in the bullpen are, plain and simple, the best in baseball. Very well played games all weekend, and the good news is the clubs give the initial appearance of being quite closely matched. EDIT: I'm curious what people think. One out, K Greene on third after a triple. Kouzmanoff up. Do you walk the bases loaded to have the force/play the infield at double play depth? I thought that was what Hurdle was going to do, but I'm not going to second guess him ... Kouzmanoff has been struggling, so I thought it made sense to go after him. If you walk him and then walk Cruz, you've got a pinch hitter up to try to get the run home. The Pads would probably go with LHH rookie McAnulty or LHH Termel Sledge, in which case the Rox would counter with Fuentes. Or if the Pads tried to out-think Hurdle (imagine that!), you'd get someone like switch hitter Geoff Blum. Again, I'm not saying Hurdle was wrong here, but you can certainly make an argument that Fuentes vs. a lefty or Fuentes vs. Blum gives you a better chance of getting a K or pop-up to get out of the jam. What would you have done?? Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; April 8th, 2007 at 07:06 PM.

April 8th, 2007, 09:39 PM	#36 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	Fuentes.... Yes, Jackass, I wouldn't have left Fuentes rot in the bullpen today, or yesterday, for that matter. He's our best reliever, and we didn't use "our best" in either late loss. Notice that Bud Black DID use his best, Trevor Hoffman, in both wins, even though they weren't save situations. To not use Fuentes in either game against the tough Padres bullpen wasn't giving our team its best chance to win over the weekend. So Hurdle gets a (small) part of the blame for today's and/or yesterday's losses. Of course, the main blame goes to our listless offense (or credit to their great pitching). Finally, all throughout my years following baseball, with a potential winning run at 3rd base and less than two outs, you walk the bases loaded to set up a force play at the plate. There are exceptions, depending on matchups, but in this case (as you point out), we had the fresh Fuentes available to face a probable lefthanded hitter with the bases loaded and one out (or Blum). Hawkins also doesn't strike people out anymore, and being able to get a strikeout with that runner at 3rd and less than two outs is critical. Fuentes may or may not have done that, but we stood a better chance of surviving into the 11th inning if he was in there instead of Hawkins.....with the bases loaded.

April 8th, 2007, 10:17 PM	#40 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 305	I dunno. Admittedly, I made my previous comment, having not actually watched the game yet. But based on the pitch summary in MLB Gameday, it looked like Hawkins had in fact pitched poorly. I went back and watched just now on MLB.tv and it only seems to confirm my suspicions. The Padres announcers pointed out first that this is the fifth appearance for Hawkins in six games. As the at-bat against Cameron developed, and Hawkins fell to 2-2, one of the announcers suggested that Hawkins was tipping off his pitches, "staying on top of his breaking ball too long." As Cameron fouled another off and then let the count go to 3-2, the announcer said it again, and also indicated that it looks like Hawkins is "slowing up his arm on his changeup." Another foul and then he gets him. He can't finish off Greene on an 0-2 count. Then he falls behind against Kouzmanoff (all 5 pitches in the high 90s... he's given up on his other pitches) and never recovers... This guy has got to get some sessions in with Apodaca and shouldn't be coming into high leverage situations right now. Especially not 5 times in 6 games. He doesn't appear to be managing his pitch location well, and when he does, he's revealing his hand... Would I walk the bases loaded? I suppose. But more importantly, I don't have Hawkins out there - not right now, I don't. Put someone out there who is pitching well, and maybe we can actually battle the guy at the plate and finish the K or ground it to an infielder - anything but a 98 mile an hour fastball that Hawkins can't put in the right place... Last edited by HoyaRoxFan; April 8th, 2007 at 10:19 PM.

April 7th, 2007, 10:22 PM	#31 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 481	If that would have been Hawkins blowing the game instead we would have never heard the end of it. Corpas fans get their wish tonight with more than an inning in an important situation. Hey, I like the kid too but he's going to give up some hits also and make some mistakes. Even if he'll get a pass for them unlike others. He'll be a big part of the bullpen this year and rightfully so, but to move up the ladder he needs to take advantage of the opportunities that come along also.

April 7th, 2007, 11:23 PM	#32 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Corpas pitched well. He got burned by a bloop single to lead off the inning, and then a deep flyball that (as Frazier pointed out) probably would've been caught by Holliday if he hadn't been playing in (runner on second/1 out). Unlike Hawkins in Game 1, he didn't fall behind/walk anyone, or really do anything other than suffer from some bad breaks. By the way, Frazier is wrong to suggest that Holliday should've been playing at normal depth. In this situation, you need to avoid the most common scenarios -- the base hit that drops in front of the outfielder. You also want the outfielder to have a chance to make a play at the plate on a grounder that gets through the IF. You don't need to worry about giving up extra bases because any base hit will probably lose the game. Hear that? I said, "Hurdle was right." (Or, at least the guy who positions the outfielders was right.). Sometimes bad things happen.

April 8th, 2007, 12:02 AM	#33 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 305	While I'm still cool with Hawkins and think he'll be a valuable piece of the bullpen for at least part of the year, drawing a comparison between Hawkins on 4/2 and Corpas tonight doesn't work and isn't fair. Hawkins on 4/2 faced 6 batters - he fell behind in the count on the first two batters, ultimately allowing 2 hits. He then got a one-pitch flyball out, intentionally walked Drew, allowed another hit that scored two runs, and a sacrifice fly that allowed a run. By my count, that's 3 bad at-bats resulting in hits (2 of whom scored), one good out, and one strategic move. Meanwhile, Corpas tonight faced 7 batters - a one pitch pop out, a four pitch K, a six-pitch K against Bowen (Jackass, he did fall behind here 3-1 BUT he battled back) in the 8th. In the 9th, he gave a single on his second pitch, got an out on a sacrifice bunt, intentionally walked a guy, and gave up a double on the next pitch. Again, by my count, that's 4 good outs, two bad at-bats resulting in hits (1 of whom scored), and one strategic move. They both resulted in losses, but I think Corpas clearly had the better outing.

April 8th, 2007, 04:53 PM	#34 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 305	Right, so about that Hawkins fellow... I'm quickly losing my cool with him. Eww.

April 8th, 2007, 09:50 PM	#37 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 197	Its funny, a lot of the media outlets I have read pegged us as having the best offense in the division...... I want to know when that offense is going to show up, and it better be long before we play the Nationals. Tough losses both nights, but looking at the bright side of things, we were competitive and where in every ballgame. Things just need to start clicking for us to be successful.

April 8th, 2007, 09:55 PM	#38 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	People seem to forget how inept our offense was during our slide last season in July and August. The final stats were beefed up from a September of "pre-humidor" style baseball at Coors Field. The same affliction that the team suffered from in 2006 has struck early again.......the inability to get a late clutch hit, or score late, in close games. And I'm still waiting to witness Todd Helton's resurgent power.

April 9th, 2007, 12:18 AM	#45 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	That's what I meant, HF. I would guess that the infield in raises the percentage of a groundball making it through the infield by maybe 50%. With the bases loaded and the infielders at double play depth, perhaps that's only about a 20% increase over the ordinary (bases empty) situation. Of course, these are just guesses. But groundballs like those hit by Kouzmanoff to end the game are double play balls with the infielders at double play depth.