Matt Holliday, the walking mental error

[hiaspire]

One is all we'll need for judgement. It's never too early.

[hiaspire]

Alex Gordon had a broken-bat single off Daisuke Matsuzaka for his first major league hit on Thursday.

Unfortunately, he also committed his first major league error and could have been charged with a second. He finished the series versus Boston 1-for-11 with five strikeouts.

Related to not jumping to conclusions too early, Alex Gordon's numbers on the year are going to be vastly different from his start I'd bet anyone. Without that broken bat fortunate single, he would have gone completely hitless and struck out nearly half of his at bats.

Is he a bust, or nowhere near ready? I don't think so. Just a short sample couple of games not to get too worried about. Not yet anyway. Same with some of our guys. Patience will reveal the truth in the coming months.

[indianadrew]

"Alex Gordon had a broken-bat single off Daisuke Matsuzaka for his first major league hit on Thursday"

somebody also hit the first major league homerun off of him......is the ball on Ebay yet?

[BigRapidsJackass]

Is he a bust, or nowhere near ready? I don't think so. Just a short sample couple of games not to get too worried about. Not yet anyway. Same with some of our guys. Patience will reveal the truth in the coming months.

Aspire, I'm not at all worried about our young guys. Nor am I worried about Alex Gordon.

I am more than a little worried about Willy Tavares, since we have 2 full seasons of pretty abysmal hitting performances at the big league level to go on. No small sample problem there. We know what he is, and he's living down to it so far. Let's face facts: his bat is completely impotent. If he plays great defense and manages a .350 OBP, I guess he won't hurt us that much. Otherwise, I'm in the Bring Back Cory (or Ryan) camp.

As for Hirsh and Lopez: I'm conflicted in opposite ways.

With Lopez, my analytical side says he had some bad pitching luck last year, but he's really not much different than Jason Jennings. That is, a decent 3rd starter type. My gut is still worried about him, though.

With Hirsh, it's the opposite. My gut says a guy who was minor league pitcher of the year in his leagues for 2 years running is going to succeed in the big leagues. But, like Heltonfan, I don't really see much in his component stats to get excited about. In fact, there's a lot to be worried about.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

I am more than a little worried about Willy Tavares, since we have 2 full seasons of pretty abysmal hitting performances at the big league level to go on. No small sample problem there.

But weren't you also saying some fairly positive stuff about him during spring training. At least calling him a fine bargain? You were not overly negative about that acquisition in some posts I read. Add a strong spring training and 2 MLB games and suddenly it's decided that he's abysmal? That wasn't the story a week ago when many people here were more positive than I thought they might be about his expectations. Two games later and suddenly different story. I can't see that.

Are there no VETERANS across baseball who struggled in the first 2-3 games this year? Are fans not worried about them equally? If so, fans shouldn't be. Way too early. Even if it was April 30th, and even then it is still just April with 5 months left to play where results can be vastly different in the bigger picture.

Taveras is more like a young player than a veteran still, but certainly not a rookie. He is historically (in his brief career) not that great out of the gate in April/May but heats up in June, July, and August with .299-.319 batting averages those months in his early career.

[BigRapidsJackass]

I hated the Tavares acquisition when it happened, calling him just about the only starting centerfielder who would actually be a downgrade from Cory Sullivan.

After noticing some of the defensive stats, I kind of came to terms with the fact that he was the guy, and I tried to focus on the positive.

And I still believe he's a useful player. I just think he's not a full-time player. Hurdle will have to figure out that in some situations -- late in the game, runner in scoring position -- you just have to plan on pinch hitting for him. He's simply not going to be able to drive the ball (or even put it in play) frequently enough to be acceptable.

The fact that Tulo, Iannetta, and even Baker look ready to contribute offensively is a great thing. That's why the Mabry type isn't that important on the roster anymore. The Spilborghs or Sullivan type is, to give Hurdle the flexbility to get Tavares out of there in situations in which he isn't the answer.

[Heltonfan]

The fact that Tulo, Iannetta, and even Baker look ready to contribute offensively is a great thing.

Tulo looks ready to contribute? I must have missed that.

You're absolutely right about Taveras, though. And that brings up an important point: Taveras is overrated by every standard measure of hitting performance, because his singles (since so many of them are of the infield variety) aren't as valuable as most guys' singles. Willy T. is good for around 150 singles a year... if his singles are worth, say, .03 runs less than average each, that's 4.5 runs by which he's overrated. That's enough to offset the value of his baserunning.

[hiaspire]

"absolutely right"

You guys are a little too absolute about most things, especially in this always changing game. Taveras will probably be one of our few non-Helton/Atkins/Holliday hitters over .300 by years end. I give him a better shot at that than Tulo and some of the others.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Let me rephrase on Tulo: I think he'll do better than Barmes did last year. I don't think he'll post very good numbers. Iannetta is a different story. I like him a lot.

Aspire, Willy T.'s .300 would be perhaps the emptiest .300 ever. When they acquired him, I was thinking he'd wind up in kind of a rough platoon with Sullivan. And I'd still like to see that, at least until we can get a complete player for centerfield.

At this stage of their careers, Finley and Mabry are pretty equivalent at the plate, and you certainly don't want to be carrying both of them.

[hiaspire]

Emptiest ever?? He wasn't promoted to the big leagues or paid to drive in runs. Just like Pierre and other primarily speed leadoff-types, he was brought here to hit a solid average and create havoc on the bases. Chase down balls in the spacious CF with his speed also. Him hitting .300 and coming close or leading the league in steals under such a scenario where he's on base more and with a green light to run even more will hardly be empty. It'll be more men in scoring position for our middle-of-the-order hitters than they could have dreamed of in previous seasons. It'll be more fastballs and distracted pitchers for those up after him also. That's his role in the game. When he gets on, positive things are going to happen in changing the momentum of games and I think he'll get on base at a pretty decent clip here and make a big difference when he does.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Emptiest ever??

Now that you mention it ...

Willy T's career Isolated Power (Slugging Percentage - Batting Average): .055

Juan Pierre's ISO: .075

Willie Wilson's ISO: .091

Jason Jenning's ISO: .066

Gary Pettis's ISO: .074

Vince Coleman's ISO: .081

Tony Womack's ISO: .083

Eddie Brinkman's ISO: .076



But wait! We have a winner (or three?):

Miguel Dilone's ISO: .050

Mark Belanger's ISO: .052

And, of course, Mario Mendoza's ISO: .047

Got that? Willy Tavares has just about as much power as Mark Belanger, and just barely more power than the immortal Mario Mendoza. I actually find this kind of astounding. I didn't realize exactly how weak he is as a hitter.

Yes, of course he picks up more singles than those guys, primarily because he's faster. But as HF points out, his BA isn't equal to the BA of other guys because .so many of his hits are of the infield variety ... and those won't score a runner on second

So, is it the "emptiest ever?" No, but I think "Least Powerful Hitter Since 1980" is a pretty apt description. Really ... Juan Pierre has 50% more extra-base power than Willy T.

I'm not saying he's useless. In fact, I think he can be quite useful for his defense, and perhaps when leading off an inning, or even when batting with one or two outs and nobody on.

But as an RBI guy? Yeah, he's useless. He should be pulled for a pinch hitter very frequently in situations like "7th inning, runner on 3rd, one out" or "8th inning, runner on 2nd, two outs" in close games.

That's all I'm saying. And I think the stats bear me out.