2007 Minor League Thread - Page 5

Heltonfan · May 4th, 2007, 10:45 AM

Quote:

How do Reynolds' BB/9, K/9 and K/BB stats in Tulsa compare to Francis when he was there?

Walk rate is virtually identical. K rate is nowhere close (Francis struck out 34% of batters, Reynolds is at 21%). Of course, K/BB rate isn't the whole story. Keeping the ball on the ground, which Reynolds does and Francis never has, makes a big difference.

Quote:

Using Francis' control and power stat falloff from his Tulsa days as a proxy...

Bad idea. Most pitchers' strikeout rates don't fall off nearly to the extent that Francis' has.

And again, I'm not expecting Reynolds to become a 200-inning league-average pitcher. I'm saying that that's his upside.

Roxpert · May 4th, 2007, 12:03 PM

I've seen many Rockies pitching prospects experience a large falloff in strikeout rates from AA ball, starting with Mark Thompson and Jamey Wright. I don't know if this is just a phenomenon with Rockies pitchers (due to the lower Coors K-rate or whatever), but it has happened pre-Francis, and it will happen again (though I'm not saying it necessarily will in Reynolds' case).

sg8335aa · May 4th, 2007, 02:24 PM

So we're saying his future may look a bit more like Aaron Cook-ish than Jeff Francis-ish? Especially with Reynold's groundball tendencies (though with different pitches)

So the Projection may resemble a bit more of a #2 starter workhorse?

Still no Tim Lincecum....but certainly makes the #2 pick a bit easier to swallow if it turns out the Rockies scouts were onto something....

Heltonfan · May 4th, 2007, 04:55 PM

Quote:

So we're saying his future may look a bit more like Aaron Cook-ish than Jeff Francis-ish?

Pretty much. I look at him as a poor man's Cook/Wang, the difference being that Reynolds' groundball tendencies aren't as pronounced as the other guys'.

RMF · May 4th, 2007, 05:10 PM

Well this is one position I'm glad to have done a 180 on. After seeing the guy in ST I was very impressed. And while my eyeballs aren't as accurate as HF's computer my eyes like Reynold's secondary stuff quite a bit..

I think he'll be a September callup and probably will be in the rotation in 08

I haven't heard from anyone what velocity Reynolds is working with. Is he working in the 93-95 range or 90-92? I'd really like for us to develop a power guy.

Heltonfan · May 4th, 2007, 11:13 PM

Colorado Springs
Ian Stewart: 0-4, 2 K - .295/.362/.379
Tulsa
Ryan Mattheus: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K
Jonathan Herrera: 1-3, 2 BB
Modesto
Brandon Durden: 7 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR
Pedro Strop: 1 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K - 21 K in 16 IP
Dexter Fowler: 2-3, BB, SB
Travis Becktel: 2-4, 2B
Asheville
Keith Weiser: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 0 K - 2 BB in 37 IP
Hector Gomez: 2-6, 2 2B
Daniel Mayora: 3-5, 2 2B - .327/.360/.519
Michael McKenry: 3-5, 2 2B, HR

Mayora is on quite a roll right now. He's not really this good - his BABIP currently sits at .444 - but still, he's having an impressive season.

GerryInCS · May 5th, 2007, 12:29 AM

No. I just hope the Rox don't do to Reynolds what they did to Francis and bring him up to the Big Show too early

John Cocktoston · May 5th, 2007, 09:59 AM

Gerry, out of curiosity, why do you think Francis was brought up too early?

He was 23 years and 8 months old when he made his MLB debut, which isn't exactly young.

He'd dominated High-A Visalia in 2003, so they put him in Tulsa.

He was actually more dominant there, going 13-1 with just 73 hits allowed in 113.2 IP against 147 K's and 22 walks. So they gave him a late season promotion to the Springs, where it was pretty much more of the same.

On the basis of that, they gave him 7 starts with the big club in a late season call-up. He was pretty much what you'd expect with the Rockies in 2004, experiencing a decline in his K/9 rate along with an increase in his BB/9 and H/9 rate. He also gave up a few gopher balls. Still he went 3-2 and acquitted himself pretty well when all was said and done.

Over the next two years with the big club, he won 27 games.

What would you rather they have done with him?

Heltonfan · May 6th, 2007, 06:54 AM

Colorado Springs
Ryan Spilborghs: 2-3, HR - .295/.380/.534
Cory Sullivan: 1-2, 3B, 2 BB
Tulsa
Ching-Lung Lo: 5 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 0 K
Corey Wimberly: 2-3, 2 BB, SB
Modesto
Brandon Hynick: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HR - 13/5 G/F
Dexter Fowler: 2-2, 2 BB, SB - .242/.367/.319
Daniel Carte: 5-5, 3 2B - .321/.329/.462
Asheville
Aneury Rodriguez: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
Logan Wiens: 2-4, 2 2B

Hynick finally gave up a run. Worthless #*&%... seriously, 2 walks in 40 innings now. That's phenomenal.

That's one weird-looking stat line for Dexter Fowler, but I think we have to be encouraged by it. The power will come, and it's awfully nice to see him drawing some walks.

Heltonfan · May 6th, 2007, 08:30 PM

Colorado Springs
Ubaldo Jimenez: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K
Modesto
Xavier Cedeno: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K
Asheville
Simon Ferrer: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Daniel Mayora: 3-4, 2B, SB
Victor Ferrante: 2-3, 2 2B, BB

John Cocktoston · May 7th, 2007, 12:33 PM

From BP on Fowler:

Dexter Fowler, OF, High-A Modesto (Rockies)
Last year, Fowler had a breakout year in the Rockies system, as his unquestioned tools converted into baseball skills much sooner than expected. Even more was anticipated as he moved to the California League for 2007, and after a miserable .187/.315/.267 showing in April, Fowler is finally heating up, going 6-for-10 during a weekend tilt with High Desert while drawing three walks and swiping a pair of bases. Now at .250/.395/.323, Fowler's numbers are still weak, but everything is moving in the right direction for one of the highest high-ceiling prospects around.

TheIncredibleRox · May 7th, 2007, 12:54 PM

Bill Geivett spoke at a SABR function recently... during the Q & A, something was mentioned about Fowler's development. Geveitt's response was something along the lines that the advice they have to keep pounding into Dexter's head is.... "EAT SOMETHING!"

It's true... I met Fowler a few months after he was drafted. The guy could hide behind a speed limit sign.

Heltonfan · May 8th, 2007, 08:37 AM

Colorado Springs
Byung-Hyun Kim: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR
Clint Barmes: 3-6, 2B
Sean Barker: 2-5, 2B
Alexis Gomez: 1-4, HR, 2 BB
Ian Stewart: 3-5, 2B, HR - .305/.365/.419
Joe Koshansky: 3-5, 2B - .306/.381/.449
Tulsa
Sam Deduno: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K - 9/1 G/F
Steven Register: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K - 18/1 K/BB
Jonathan Herrera: 3-5, 3B, 2 BB - .351/.403/.412

RMF · May 8th, 2007, 04:26 PM

Johnson is promoted and makes a start at AA but not Hynick. Interesting..... I guess. Obviously Johnson is older and his numbers @ A+ were fine. Not a lot of room on the AA roster and more SP's who need to be tested there. Rockies either need to make some promotions or move some of those guys to the pen.

RoxFan · May 8th, 2007, 05:14 PM

Johnson was moved up and not Hynick to replace Morales because it was his scheduled day to pitch. It made sense to promote Johnson for the game. Morales tweaked his hamstring.

May 4th, 2007, 05:10 PM	#65 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Well this is one position I'm glad to have done a 180 on. After seeing the guy in ST I was very impressed. And while my eyeballs aren't as accurate as HF's computer my eyes like Reynold's secondary stuff quite a bit.. I think he'll be a September callup and probably will be in the rotation in 08 I haven't heard from anyone what velocity Reynolds is working with. Is he working in the 93-95 range or 90-92? I'd really like for us to develop a power guy. Last edited by RMF; May 4th, 2007 at 05:33 PM.

May 4th, 2007, 11:13 PM	#66 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 4 Colorado Springs Ian Stewart: 0-4, 2 K - .295/.362/.379 Tulsa Ryan Mattheus: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K Jonathan Herrera: 1-3, 2 BB Modesto Brandon Durden: 7 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR Pedro Strop: 1 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 3 K - 21 K in 16 IP Dexter Fowler: 2-3, BB, SB Travis Becktel: 2-4, 2B Asheville Keith Weiser: 7.2 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 0 K - 2 BB in 37 IP Hector Gomez: 2-6, 2 2B Daniel Mayora: 3-5, 2 2B - .327/.360/.519 Michael McKenry: 3-5, 2 2B, HR Mayora is on quite a roll right now. He's not really this good - his BABIP currently sits at .444 - but still, he's having an impressive season.

May 5th, 2007, 12:29 AM	#67 (permalink)
GerryInCS New Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 635	No. I just hope the Rox don't do to Reynolds what they did to Francis and bring him up to the Big Show too early __________________ Americans aren't afraid of Mexicans, Americans are afraid that Mexicans are turning America into Mexico.

May 6th, 2007, 06:54 AM	#69 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 5 Colorado Springs Ryan Spilborghs: 2-3, HR - .295/.380/.534 Cory Sullivan: 1-2, 3B, 2 BB Tulsa Ching-Lung Lo: 5 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 0 K Corey Wimberly: 2-3, 2 BB, SB Modesto Brandon Hynick: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HR - 13/5 G/F Dexter Fowler: 2-2, 2 BB, SB - .242/.367/.319 Daniel Carte: 5-5, 3 2B - .321/.329/.462 Asheville Aneury Rodriguez: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR Logan Wiens: 2-4, 2 2B Hynick finally gave up a run. Worthless #*&%... seriously, 2 walks in 40 innings now. That's phenomenal. That's one weird-looking stat line for Dexter Fowler, but I think we have to be encouraged by it. The power will come, and it's awfully nice to see him drawing some walks.

May 6th, 2007, 08:30 PM	#70 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 6 Colorado Springs Ubaldo Jimenez: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K Modesto Xavier Cedeno: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K Asheville Simon Ferrer: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 1 K Daniel Mayora: 3-4, 2B, SB Victor Ferrante: 2-3, 2 2B, BB

May 4th, 2007, 12:03 PM	#62 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	I've seen many Rockies pitching prospects experience a large falloff in strikeout rates from AA ball, starting with Mark Thompson and Jamey Wright. I don't know if this is just a phenomenon with Rockies pitchers (due to the lower Coors K-rate or whatever), but it has happened pre-Francis, and it will happen again (though I'm not saying it necessarily will in Reynolds' case).

May 4th, 2007, 02:24 PM	#63 (permalink)
sg8335aa Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 118	So we're saying his future may look a bit more like Aaron Cook-ish than Jeff Francis-ish? Especially with Reynold's groundball tendencies (though with different pitches) So the Projection may resemble a bit more of a #2 starter workhorse? Still no Tim Lincecum....but certainly makes the #2 pick a bit easier to swallow if it turns out the Rockies scouts were onto something....

May 5th, 2007, 09:59 AM	#68 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	Gerry, out of curiosity, why do you think Francis was brought up too early? He was 23 years and 8 months old when he made his MLB debut, which isn't exactly young. He'd dominated High-A Visalia in 2003, so they put him in Tulsa. He was actually more dominant there, going 13-1 with just 73 hits allowed in 113.2 IP against 147 K's and 22 walks. So they gave him a late season promotion to the Springs, where it was pretty much more of the same. On the basis of that, they gave him 7 starts with the big club in a late season call-up. He was pretty much what you'd expect with the Rockies in 2004, experiencing a decline in his K/9 rate along with an increase in his BB/9 and H/9 rate. He also gave up a few gopher balls. Still he went 3-2 and acquitted himself pretty well when all was said and done. Over the next two years with the big club, he won 27 games. What would you rather they have done with him?

May 7th, 2007, 12:33 PM	#71 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	From BP on Fowler: Dexter Fowler, OF, High-A Modesto (Rockies) Last year, Fowler had a breakout year in the Rockies system, as his unquestioned tools converted into baseball skills much sooner than expected. Even more was anticipated as he moved to the California League for 2007, and after a miserable .187/.315/.267 showing in April, Fowler is finally heating up, going 6-for-10 during a weekend tilt with High Desert while drawing three walks and swiping a pair of bases. Now at .250/.395/.323, Fowler's numbers are still weak, but everything is moving in the right direction for one of the highest high-ceiling prospects around.

May 7th, 2007, 12:54 PM	#72 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 322	Bill Geivett spoke at a SABR function recently... during the Q & A, something was mentioned about Fowler's development. Geveitt's response was something along the lines that the advice they have to keep pounding into Dexter's head is.... "EAT SOMETHING!" It's true... I met Fowler a few months after he was drafted. The guy could hide behind a speed limit sign.

May 8th, 2007, 08:37 AM	#73 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 7 Colorado Springs Byung-Hyun Kim: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR Clint Barmes: 3-6, 2B Sean Barker: 2-5, 2B Alexis Gomez: 1-4, HR, 2 BB Ian Stewart: 3-5, 2B, HR - .305/.365/.419 Joe Koshansky: 3-5, 2B - .306/.381/.449 Tulsa Sam Deduno: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K - 9/1 G/F Steven Register: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K - 18/1 K/BB Jonathan Herrera: 3-5, 3B, 2 BB - .351/.403/.412

May 8th, 2007, 04:26 PM	#74 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Johnson is promoted and makes a start at AA but not Hynick. Interesting..... I guess. Obviously Johnson is older and his numbers @ A+ were fine. Not a lot of room on the AA roster and more SP's who need to be tested there. Rockies either need to make some promotions or move some of those guys to the pen.

May 8th, 2007, 05:14 PM	#75 (permalink)
RoxFan Rookie Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3	Johnson was moved up and not Hynick to replace Morales because it was his scheduled day to pitch. It made sense to promote Johnson for the game. Morales tweaked his hamstring.