2007 Minor League Thread - Page 4

Heltonfan · April 28th, 2007, 06:13 PM

RMF asked for a ranking of our middle infield prospects, which I take to mean the group of Nelson, Herrera, Young, Wimberly, Mayora, and Gomez (one could include Jayson Nix, I suppose, but he'd obviously rank at the bottom of the list). It's awfully tough to sort them out (which of course means that ranking them is an exercise in futility), but what the heck, I'll give it a shot.

Here are my current ABR projections for each prospect:

Herrera .207
Wimberly .206
Young .205
Mayora .203
Nelson .195
Gomez .180

Gomez is three years younger than the others; age-adjusted, then, he comes out right about even with them offensively, maybe a little bit ahead. His horrendous plate discipline (29/3 K/BB so far this year) is definitely a concern, but the bottom line here: this is a 19-year-old shortstop who, when he hits the ball, hits it very hard. The plate discipline has nowhere to go but up, and if/when it does, he should be a good one. He's got the highest ceiling of the group.

From what I've gathered, most scouts prefer Gomez to Nelson at this point. And since Gomez ranks ahead performance-wise (relative to age), I see no reason to break from the consensus there. Nelson should, however, still rank ahead of Young and Herrera; he's a year younger than Herrera, has a defensive edge on Young (since Young is a 2B), and he has more offensive upside than either.

EY Jr. and Herrera are very similar statistically. EY's a more dangerous basestealer, and is a few months younger, but Herrera can play shortstop. So, tough call, but I'd give Herrera the nod. They both rank ahead of Mayora because Mayora's success has been heavily BABIP-driven.

Wimberly looks like the obvious candidate to bring up the rear, given that a) he's a couple years older than the others and b) he's limited to second base. Not to mention his Taveras/Pierre-like lack of power. I don't see much upside there.

So I'd rank them Gomez, Nelson, Herrera, Young, Mayora, Wimberly. But it's a tightly bunched group, and I imagine that one could construct an argument in defense of just about any ordering.

Heltonfan · April 29th, 2007, 08:52 AM

Colorado Springs
Cory Sullivan: 2-4, 3B, BB
Sean Barker: 3-4, 2 2B - .488/.511/1.000
Tulsa
Franklin Morales: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Joe Gaetti: 2-4, HR, BB
Modesto
Chaz Roe: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K
Asheville
Andy Graham: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K
Michael Paulk: 4-5, 2B, 3B - .423/.505/.590
Michael McKenry: 2-5, 2B, HR

Heltonfan · April 29th, 2007, 08:11 PM

Colorado Springs
Omar Quintanilla: 2-4, 2B, SB
Tulsa
Ryan Mattheus: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR
Jonathan Herrera: 0-4, 2 K - .312/.340/.355
Modesto
Brandon Durden: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K
Pedro Strop: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Chris Nelson: 0-5, 2 K - .261/.305/.432
Asheville
Keith Weiser: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K
Michael Paulk: 2-3

The Sky Sox ran into Tim Lincecum today: 14 strikeouts and no walks in 6 innings. Amazing.

wolf213 · April 29th, 2007, 09:57 PM

I'm not sure what to Make of Sean Barker, He's a little old for AAA and my brain says he's nothing more then a AAAA player... but he's having a hell of a year so far.

sg8335aa · April 30th, 2007, 03:22 PM

I'm not sure Hynick is going to last until July before being called up to Tulsa....

He went out today and pitched a 9 Inning complete game gem: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K. 14 groundouts, 6 flyouts. (to win a 1-0 game)

That's a season line in 5 starts of: 32 IP, 19 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 22 K, .165 BA Against, 0.00 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP

The only questions is.....how many starts will he make in May before moving to Tulsa?

RMF · April 30th, 2007, 06:05 PM

Right now Hynick appears to be a huge find. I've already seen people on minorleagueball referring to him as Slowey, Garza like.

His numbers so far are sterling. He's got a good chance of being an early promotion.

If we could add Detwiler in this draft I'd really like our pitching depth. Control doesn't seem to be an issue with Hynick. You've got to wonder how much longer until he's pitching alongside Morales and Reynolds.

I'm going to say he'll be in Tulsa by June 1.

Heltonfan · April 30th, 2007, 06:29 PM

Quote:

I've already seen people on minorleagueball referring to him as Slowey, Garza like.

Garza's a different animal, a real strikeout pitcher. But Slowey is a great comparison for Hynick.

I still don't see Hynick getting called up to Tulsa before July, though. Morales, Reynolds, Lo, Mattheus, Deduno (soon to be promoted)... that's a full rotation. Although I suppose that the problem could be solved by moving Reynolds up to AAA, if he keeps up what he's been doing.

Heltonfan · April 30th, 2007, 11:36 PM

Colorado Springs
Sean Barker: 3-3, 2 2B
Tulsa
Ching-Lung Lo: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
Jonathan Herrera: 4-5
Modesto
Brandon Hynick: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K
Asheville
Aneury Rodriguez: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Hector Gomez: 2-4, 2B, BB
Logan Wiens: 2-4, 2B

John Cocktoston · May 1st, 2007, 10:29 PM

At the risk of using this forum to draw attention to something positive, I thought it worth pointing out that Greg Reynolds is off to a pretty decent start in Tulsa. Sorry to rain on the parade, guys. I'm sure it will turn around soon...

GS:4
IP: 25
H: 18
ER: 6
HR: 2
BB: 5
SO: 20
BB/9: 1.8
SO/9: 7.2
AVG: .202
WHIP: .92

Heltonfan · May 1st, 2007, 11:12 PM

Colorado Springs
Ubaldo Jimenez: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K
Ryan Spilborghs: 2-4, 2 BB, SB
Ian Stewart: 3-6
Tulsa
Darren Clarke: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K - '07 debut
Corey Wimberly: 0-4 - '07 debut
Modesto
Sam Deduno: 6 IP, 5 H, 7 BB, 5 K, 1 HR
Dexter Fowler: 3-5, 2B, BB - .213/.323/.300
Eric Young: 2-4, BB
Chris Nelson: 2-4, 2B, HR, BB - .277/.320/.479
Travis Becktel: 3-5, 2B, HR - .292/.363/.486
Asheville
Simon Ferrer: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K - best start of the year for knuckleballer
Daniel Mayora: 3-4, 2B, HR - .295/.333/.432
Jay Cox: 3-4, 2B
Victor Ferrante: 3-4, 2B, HR - .290/.380/.532

That's a nice outing for Jimenez. The control was still a little shaky - I was following him on Gameday, and he was hovering around a 50/50 ball/strike ratio in the first 3-4 innings - but it's awfully encouraging to see him striking people out again.

sg8335aa · May 2nd, 2007, 05:20 AM

Will Sammy's struggles keep him in Modesto a bit longer than expected?.....will the result be that Hynick gets a look at Tulsa 1st?

This may turn out to be an interesting little race if Deduno continues to struggle.

Heltonfan · May 2nd, 2007, 09:52 AM

Deduno belongs in AA. I'm not particularly optimistic about him, but at his age, with the season he had last year in the Cal League, AA is where he needs to be. Sink or swim.

I'd love to see Hynick promoted, sooner rather than later, but I'd prefer it to be at the expense of a fringe prospect (Mattheus or Lo).

Heltonfan · May 2nd, 2007, 10:58 PM

Colorado Springs
Byung-Hyun Kim: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Ian Stewart: 2-3, BB
Modesto
Alan Johnson: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR
Asheville
Hector Gomez: 2-5, 2B, HR
Daniel Mayora: 3-5, 2 2B, HR - .313/.349/.495
Michael Paulk: 2-4, 2B

Heltonfan · May 4th, 2007, 07:47 AM

Colorado Springs
Joe Koshansky: 2-5, 2B
Clint Barmes: 2-3, 2 BB
Alexis Gomez: 3-5, 2B
Seth Smith: 3-5, 2 2B, HR - .250/.320/.426
Tulsa
Greg Reynolds: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K - 11/6 G/F
Jonathan Herrera: 1-3, 2B, BB
Modesto
Chaz Roe: 4 IP, 5 H, 6 BB, 2 K

Roe's K/BB now stands at 22/21... painfully mediocre. His K and BB rates were both subpar at Asheville last year as well. Not a good sign.

Reynolds, though, is a completely different story. His raw K rate is up by 50% this year despite moving up a level... his control has been terrific... it might be time to think about removing that "future #3 starter" label. With his pitch efficiency, Reynolds looks like a potential workhorse; 200 innings of league-average pitching would make him one of the top 50 or so starters in the game. And I think that's within reach.

Roxpert · May 4th, 2007, 10:19 AM

How do Reynolds' BB/9, K/9 and K/BB stats in Tulsa compare to Francis when he was there? IIRC, Francis had superb control there and a higher K-rate, both of which have been blunted to an extent at the MLB level.

Using Francis' control and power stat falloff from his Tulsa days as a proxy, shouldn't we assume a similar result with Reynolds? And, if so, would this change your view that he could be a 200-inning league-average pitcher?

April 29th, 2007, 08:52 AM	#47 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, April 28 Colorado Springs Cory Sullivan: 2-4, 3B, BB Sean Barker: 3-4, 2 2B - .488/.511/1.000 Tulsa Franklin Morales: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K Joe Gaetti: 2-4, HR, BB Modesto Chaz Roe: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K Asheville Andy Graham: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 BB, 2 K Michael Paulk: 4-5, 2B, 3B - .423/.505/.590 Michael McKenry: 2-5, 2B, HR

April 29th, 2007, 08:11 PM	#48 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, April 29 Colorado Springs Omar Quintanilla: 2-4, 2B, SB Tulsa Ryan Mattheus: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HR Jonathan Herrera: 0-4, 2 K - .312/.340/.355 Modesto Brandon Durden: 6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K Pedro Strop: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K Chris Nelson: 0-5, 2 K - .261/.305/.432 Asheville Keith Weiser: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 7 K Michael Paulk: 2-3 The Sky Sox ran into Tim Lincecum today: 14 strikeouts and no walks in 6 innings. Amazing.

April 30th, 2007, 11:36 PM	#53 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, April 30 Colorado Springs Sean Barker: 3-3, 2 2B Tulsa Ching-Lung Lo: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR Jonathan Herrera: 4-5 Modesto Brandon Hynick: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K Asheville Aneury Rodriguez: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K Hector Gomez: 2-4, 2B, BB Logan Wiens: 2-4, 2B

May 1st, 2007, 10:29 PM	#54 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	Greg Reynolds At the risk of using this forum to draw attention to something positive, I thought it worth pointing out that Greg Reynolds is off to a pretty decent start in Tulsa. Sorry to rain on the parade, guys. I'm sure it will turn around soon... GS:4 IP: 25 H: 18 ER: 6 HR: 2 BB: 5 SO: 20 BB/9: 1.8 SO/9: 7.2 AVG: .202 WHIP: .92 Last edited by Heltonfan; May 1st, 2007 at 11:26 PM.

May 1st, 2007, 11:12 PM	#55 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 1 Colorado Springs Ubaldo Jimenez: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K Ryan Spilborghs: 2-4, 2 BB, SB Ian Stewart: 3-6 Tulsa Darren Clarke: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K - '07 debut Corey Wimberly: 0-4 - '07 debut Modesto Sam Deduno: 6 IP, 5 H, 7 BB, 5 K, 1 HR Dexter Fowler: 3-5, 2B, BB - .213/.323/.300 Eric Young: 2-4, BB Chris Nelson: 2-4, 2B, HR, BB - .277/.320/.479 Travis Becktel: 3-5, 2B, HR - .292/.363/.486 Asheville Simon Ferrer: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 K - best start of the year for knuckleballer Daniel Mayora: 3-4, 2B, HR - .295/.333/.432 Jay Cox: 3-4, 2B Victor Ferrante: 3-4, 2B, HR - .290/.380/.532 That's a nice outing for Jimenez. The control was still a little shaky - I was following him on Gameday, and he was hovering around a 50/50 ball/strike ratio in the first 3-4 innings - but it's awfully encouraging to see him striking people out again.

April 28th, 2007, 06:13 PM	#46 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	RMF asked for a ranking of our middle infield prospects, which I take to mean the group of Nelson, Herrera, Young, Wimberly, Mayora, and Gomez (one could include Jayson Nix, I suppose, but he'd obviously rank at the bottom of the list). It's awfully tough to sort them out (which of course means that ranking them is an exercise in futility), but what the heck, I'll give it a shot. Here are my current ABR projections for each prospect: Herrera .207 Wimberly .206 Young .205 Mayora .203 Nelson .195 Gomez .180 Gomez is three years younger than the others; age-adjusted, then, he comes out right about even with them offensively, maybe a little bit ahead. His horrendous plate discipline (29/3 K/BB so far this year) is definitely a concern, but the bottom line here: this is a 19-year-old shortstop who, when he hits the ball, hits it very hard. The plate discipline has nowhere to go but up, and if/when it does, he should be a good one. He's got the highest ceiling of the group. From what I've gathered, most scouts prefer Gomez to Nelson at this point. And since Gomez ranks ahead performance-wise (relative to age), I see no reason to break from the consensus there. Nelson should, however, still rank ahead of Young and Herrera; he's a year younger than Herrera, has a defensive edge on Young (since Young is a 2B), and he has more offensive upside than either. EY Jr. and Herrera are very similar statistically. EY's a more dangerous basestealer, and is a few months younger, but Herrera can play shortstop. So, tough call, but I'd give Herrera the nod. They both rank ahead of Mayora because Mayora's success has been heavily BABIP-driven. Wimberly looks like the obvious candidate to bring up the rear, given that a) he's a couple years older than the others and b) he's limited to second base. Not to mention his Taveras/Pierre-like lack of power. I don't see much upside there. So I'd rank them Gomez, Nelson, Herrera, Young, Mayora, Wimberly. But it's a tightly bunched group, and I imagine that one could construct an argument in defense of just about any ordering.

April 29th, 2007, 09:57 PM	#49 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 197	I'm not sure what to Make of Sean Barker, He's a little old for AAA and my brain says he's nothing more then a AAAA player... but he's having a hell of a year so far.

April 30th, 2007, 03:22 PM	#50 (permalink)
sg8335aa Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 118	I'm not sure Hynick is going to last until July before being called up to Tulsa.... He went out today and pitched a 9 Inning complete game gem: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K. 14 groundouts, 6 flyouts. (to win a 1-0 game) That's a season line in 5 starts of: 32 IP, 19 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 22 K, .165 BA Against, 0.00 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP The only questions is.....how many starts will he make in May before moving to Tulsa?

April 30th, 2007, 06:05 PM	#51 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Right now Hynick appears to be a huge find. I've already seen people on minorleagueball referring to him as Slowey, Garza like. His numbers so far are sterling. He's got a good chance of being an early promotion. If we could add Detwiler in this draft I'd really like our pitching depth. Control doesn't seem to be an issue with Hynick. You've got to wonder how much longer until he's pitching alongside Morales and Reynolds. I'm going to say he'll be in Tulsa by June 1.

May 2nd, 2007, 05:20 AM	#56 (permalink)
sg8335aa Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 118	Deduno vs. Hynick Will Sammy's struggles keep him in Modesto a bit longer than expected?.....will the result be that Hynick gets a look at Tulsa 1st? This may turn out to be an interesting little race if Deduno continues to struggle.

May 2nd, 2007, 09:52 AM	#57 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Deduno belongs in AA. I'm not particularly optimistic about him, but at his age, with the season he had last year in the Cal League, AA is where he needs to be. Sink or swim. I'd love to see Hynick promoted, sooner rather than later, but I'd prefer it to be at the expense of a fringe prospect (Mattheus or Lo).

May 2nd, 2007, 10:58 PM	#58 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 2 Colorado Springs Byung-Hyun Kim: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K Ian Stewart: 2-3, BB Modesto Alan Johnson: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR Asheville Hector Gomez: 2-5, 2B, HR Daniel Mayora: 3-5, 2 2B, HR - .313/.349/.495 Michael Paulk: 2-4, 2B

May 4th, 2007, 07:47 AM	#59 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Farm Report, May 3 Colorado Springs Joe Koshansky: 2-5, 2B Clint Barmes: 2-3, 2 BB Alexis Gomez: 3-5, 2B Seth Smith: 3-5, 2 2B, HR - .250/.320/.426 Tulsa Greg Reynolds: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K - 11/6 G/F Jonathan Herrera: 1-3, 2B, BB Modesto Chaz Roe: 4 IP, 5 H, 6 BB, 2 K Roe's K/BB now stands at 22/21... painfully mediocre. His K and BB rates were both subpar at Asheville last year as well. Not a good sign. Reynolds, though, is a completely different story. His raw K rate is up by 50% this year despite moving up a level... his control has been terrific... it might be time to think about removing that "future #3 starter" label. With his pitch efficiency, Reynolds looks like a potential workhorse; 200 innings of league-average pitching would make him one of the top 50 or so starters in the game. And I think that's within reach.

May 4th, 2007, 10:19 AM	#60 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	How do Reynolds' BB/9, K/9 and K/BB stats in Tulsa compare to Francis when he was there? IIRC, Francis had superb control there and a higher K-rate, both of which have been blunted to an extent at the MLB level. Using Francis' control and power stat falloff from his Tulsa days as a proxy, shouldn't we assume a similar result with Reynolds? And, if so, would this change your view that he could be a 200-inning league-average pitcher?