2007 Minor League Thread - Page 17

TheIncredibleRox · September 13th, 2007, 08:08 AM

Lemme guess the ABR changes.... league multipliers and perhaps Ks?

I tried to include Ks at the beginning of this year... it sounds stupid, because it should have been a simple adjustment to the formula, but I couldn't get it to work. I spent a few hours trying to debug, and gave up. I'll give it another shot.

Heltonfan · September 13th, 2007, 09:01 PM

League multipliers and a baserunning component. Plus, I changed things so that .263 is the weighted league average, rather than the unweighted. Just makes things a little cleaner, I think.

TheIncredibleRox · September 14th, 2007, 10:40 AM

HF, pondering the success of Tulo and U-ball this season got me rolling on a thought I've had in the past.

I've been working with these spreadsheets for ~3 years now. Isn't it true that almost all future 'All-Stars' (meaning that caliber of player) are guys who jump the curve at some point? By 'the curve,' I'm speaking of the aging/development pattern.

Admittedly, I havent taken any objective study of this matter to this point. But before I do so, I was wondering if you noticed the same effect.

Taking just position players as an example, it seems that;

A.) Very few exist for whom a standard progress projection would predict a .300+ ABR at their peak.

B.) Again, just through educated observation and no actual research, it seems this would be at least semi-predictable because many of the 'curve jumpers' are lauded for their tools. Tulo and Hanley Ramirez could be posterboys here.

I don't think this is anything fantastic; of course many people develop above and below the 'standard curve'--its just a line of best fit--and it would stand to reason that many/most of the positive outliers would be guys with great physical tools.

What would be fantastic would be to research this effectively enough that the 'curve jumper' would be at least semi-predictable.

Heltonfan · September 14th, 2007, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Isn't it true that almost all future 'All-Stars' (meaning that caliber of player) are guys who jump the curve at some point?

Yep. I thought I had mentioned this before; maybe not. But it's definitely true, and although it's obvious (particularly in hindsight), it's extremely important; it's what makes a prospect a prospect, so to speak. The funny thing is that most of the sabermetric community seems to have missed this. I'm not quite sure why.

Quote:

It would stand to reason that many/most of the positive outliers would be guys with great physical tools.

Absolutely. And add Matt Holliday to your posterboy list.

TheIncredibleRox · September 19th, 2007, 01:33 PM

Curious... whats the basrunning component.... a mulitplicitive based on speed indicators? And in what fashion did you adjust the league multipliers?

Heltonfan · September 19th, 2007, 10:14 PM

The baserunning component is an old Tangotiger formula I stumbled across.

Baserunning Runs = 0.08*SB+0.07*CS+0.04*3B-0.01*(1B+BB)

It's not perfect, obviously, but it gets the job done. As an example, the '07 MLB leaders:
Reyes 6.54
Pierre 4.46
Crawford 3.88
Ramirez 3.82
Byrnes 3.09
Trailers:
Helton -1.62
Vidro -1.56
Burrell -1.39
Thomas -1.20
Ortiz -1.20

Re: league multipliers:
AAA .863
AA .795
A+ .741
A- .692
SS .646
R .605
Sub-R .567 (AZ Summer League, GCL)

September 13th, 2007, 08:08 AM	#241 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 322	Lemme guess the ABR changes.... league multipliers and perhaps Ks? I tried to include Ks at the beginning of this year... it sounds stupid, because it should have been a simple adjustment to the formula, but I couldn't get it to work. I spent a few hours trying to debug, and gave up. I'll give it another shot.

September 13th, 2007, 09:01 PM	#242 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	League multipliers and a baserunning component. Plus, I changed things so that .263 is the weighted league average, rather than the unweighted. Just makes things a little cleaner, I think.

September 14th, 2007, 10:40 AM	#243 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 322	HF, pondering the success of Tulo and U-ball this season got me rolling on a thought I've had in the past. I've been working with these spreadsheets for ~3 years now. Isn't it true that almost all future 'All-Stars' (meaning that caliber of player) are guys who jump the curve at some point? By 'the curve,' I'm speaking of the aging/development pattern. Admittedly, I havent taken any objective study of this matter to this point. But before I do so, I was wondering if you noticed the same effect. Taking just position players as an example, it seems that; A.) Very few exist for whom a standard progress projection would predict a .300+ ABR at their peak. B.) Again, just through educated observation and no actual research, it seems this would be at least semi-predictable because many of the 'curve jumpers' are lauded for their tools. Tulo and Hanley Ramirez could be posterboys here. I don't think this is anything fantastic; of course many people develop above and below the 'standard curve'--its just a line of best fit--and it would stand to reason that many/most of the positive outliers would be guys with great physical tools. What would be fantastic would be to research this effectively enough that the 'curve jumper' would be at least semi-predictable.

September 19th, 2007, 01:33 PM	#245 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 322	Curious... whats the basrunning component.... a mulitplicitive based on speed indicators? And in what fashion did you adjust the league multipliers?

September 19th, 2007, 10:14 PM	#246 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	The baserunning component is an old Tangotiger formula I stumbled across. Baserunning Runs = 0.08SB+0.07CS+0.043B-0.01(1B+BB) It's not perfect, obviously, but it gets the job done. As an example, the '07 MLB leaders: Reyes 6.54 Pierre 4.46 Crawford 3.88 Ramirez 3.82 Byrnes 3.09 Trailers: Helton -1.62 Vidro -1.56 Burrell -1.39 Thomas -1.20 Ortiz -1.20 Re: league multipliers: AAA .863 AA .795 A+ .741 A- .692 SS .646 R .605 Sub-R .567 (AZ Summer League, GCL)