14Ks, LaTroy Meltdown

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

I would gather there may be studies somewhere that shows when a reliever does well his first inning with a low pitch count, and is left in for a second inning, his component stats in that second inning are better than his overall season stats.

I've never seen any evidence that this is the case.

Regarding the more general issue of streakiness: yes, I believe that players go through hot and cold streaks. But I don't believe that we can identify those streaks - at least not to any meaningful extent - until after the fact (see MGL's chapter on streaks in The Book), which renders them irrelevant for these purposes. Recent performance is a fine tie-breaker to use between two virtually equal players, but I don't think it makes sense to criticize a manager for not paying much attention to those things.

[Roxpert]

I read that chapter on streakiness too in The Book. What we don't know is whether one really good inning by a reliever can tend to lead to a second good inning in the same game. My gut tells me that it would, but I admit to seeing no written evidence of that.

[hiaspire]

Have fun with the Hurdle meter. I already know the results. There are 162 games in which something can be blamed on him, win or lose, and will be all year even if they make the playoffs. Lots to complain about here always. Just as there is something to gripe about with any team that loses a game in hindsight. And do you get to count the official blown games despite even statistical evidence from HF in this case and countless traditional examples of common managerial strategy involved? Replace Hurdle with Tony LaRussa or most anyone else and many of the moves people complain about all year would be done the same way because we see them being done throughout the game everywhere.

And there are very few examples of a manager winning a game where he deserves most of the credit IMO. That goes to the players on the field for a particular game more often than not. The manager gets to stand on the overall cummulative effect of keeping the team together and focused for the duration. I don't give the manager more credit for putting someone in the game than the player actually accomplishing something himself.

The manager impact within a single game microscope is overblown tremendously here to the point of obsession.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by hiaspire

The manager impact within a single game microscope is overblown tremendously here to the point of obsession.

And your cavalier attitude toward the potential and annual harm that Clint Hurdle could do to our record is underwhelming us to the point of seeming apologetic. As I said about PurnGoldy earlier, if you can't at least respect fan complaints about managerial moves, you don't even understand what kind of an outlet baseball is for most fans in this country. Remember the real national pastime, and get over yourself in criticizing it.

[hiaspire]

So is criticizing the manager is just an outlet? I thought things were supposed to be above that here looking at things more intelligently. Lots of emotional ranting on a variety of subjects can be outlets for different people, but is that to be encouraged? Not from me. I certainly understand it is great fun for people here to call him moron and make up silly names as people do need their outlets, but it just isn't looking at the situation fairly in a comprehensive manner IMO. I just don't understand treating baseball analysis seriously with only one outlet exception to hammer repeatedly and usually without much evidence and misunderstanding the situation from afar (like the Taveras bunt now and other countless examples throughout the years here involving false conclusions leaped mostly on assumptions about his assumed idiocy). That isn't the way to evaluate those situations IMO, even if it might be a fun outlet to do so otherwise.

[BigRapidsJackass]

mostly on assumptions about his assumed idiocy

Are you sure you don't mean "assumed assumptions about his assumed idiocy?"

Yes, criticizing the manager is part of being a baseball fan, just like criticizing the umps.

Notice how much better Jamie Quirk is doing tonight as acting manager? He's already used his special powers to make the D'backs commit a baserunning gaffe.

[Roxpert]

I suppose that since we are "objective analysts", we are forbidden to show emotions or frustration at our manager's bad moves. That is, if we are to listen to HiAspire's lectures.

Look, we can be both. We can be objective quantitative analysts of the game, AND we can emotionally rant about dumb managing moves. However, we aren't as irrational as those emotions would make you believe. Every complaint, at least from me, is based on knowledge of the game, of situations, and of the odds. Jackass seems to think the same way.

So we are not randomly flailing away to vent and rant. There is a "method in our madness".

[BigRapidsJackass]

Corpas = Filthy.

Within a few weeks, the LaTroy situation will take care of itself (or rather, Manny will take care of it for him).

[BigRapidsJackass]

Just saw that JD Durbin, the kid who was hammered by the Rox in the 8th inning today, was immediately sent down.

Interesting quote form him (from the azsnakepit blog):

I don't know, something about the big leagues... I just don't feel comfortable and it shouldn't be that way. It should be the most exciting time and it's not

Interesting because I don't know what to make of it. First impression: he just doesn't have the toughness to make it. Second impression: refreshing honesty. We've all seen dozens of guys who can't seem to handle the big stage. Garrett Atkins was one of them in his first call-up. JD Closser may be one of them forever. But you never hear them say so. I kind of hope this kid makes it.