Future Rockies 2nd baseman?

[Roxpert]

As Woody Paige wrote today, in the O'Dowd era, there have been 8 different 2nd basemen on 8 opening days, Matsui being the 8th. So the question is...Who will be the 9th to start at 2nd base on opening day 2008? Barmes? Nix?? Or THIS guy???..........

Rotoworld
Jorge Cantu-2B- Devil Rays Apr. 1 - 10:23 am et

Jorge Cantu has said that he will not report to Triple-A Durham and is demanding a trade.

"What can I say? I'm going to keep it real simple - I'm not a minor-league player," Cantu said. "Probably a change of scenery would be best." Cantu was planning to go home to Mexico to ponder his next move. Not reporting to Triple-A would only hurt his chances of getting traded anytime soon, so expect him to relent.
Source: St Petersburg Times

He's only 24, he has hit 28 homers in a season, at age 22, and he's someone that Rockies front office guy Vinny Castilla knows of well.

So you heard it here first: Jorge Cantu will be the starting 2nd baseman for the Rockies on opening day in 2008!

[Heltonfan]

I sure hope not. Cantu is the worst defensive 2B on the planet. Jamey Carroll is a much better player.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

I sure hope not. Cantu is the worst defensive 2B on the planet. Jamey Carroll is a much better player.

I dunno.....Vinny might be able to convince Dan (or whoever the GM is in the future) that we can give up "some defense" at 2nd base for an offensive 2nd baseman who can hit 30+ homers at age 25 playing at Coors.

And, realistically, Cantu could put up a .290/.330/530 line playing for us. He had a poor season in 2006 due to the effects of a fractured foot. Look at how he did at age 22 in 2005.

BTW, that was also the rap on Jeff Kent when the Giants traded Matt Williams after 1996, in exchange for Kent (and others). Kent was a bad defensive 2nd baseman, maybe the worst in the league, a rap he earned in his Mets days.

I do agree that Carroll is a far superior defender and OBP guy. But he's no potential "Blake Street Bomber", which Cantu is.

BTW, one other potential future 2nd baseman IF only the Rox would think outside the box is Jeff Baker. He was a shortstop at Clemson, moved to 3rd base due to Khalil Greene, and certainly could learn the position as well as, say, Todd Walker did. Baker could be a fine offensive 2nd baseman. The Rox don't seem to be thinking that way, though.

[Heltonfan]

Cantu isn't just a bad 2nd baseman. He's an indescribably awful 2nd baseman; we're talking ~20 runs below average over a full season. When the Devil Rays, a team willing to employ the likes of Greg Norton and Ty Wigginton, decide that you're too much of a defensive liability to be worthy of a big league roster spot, you really suck.

He'd have to hit like Chase Utley to be even an average regular. And there's no reason to believe he's capable of that.

[RMF]

I really think Herrera might make enough progress in 07 to be the starting 2B in 08. If more power comes, I think he could be a very solid 2B. I think he's a guy who could add some power. He's going to need it becuase he's not a speed guy.

There's been some rumors about Chris Nelson having a really good minor league camp. Let's hope that's the case.

This is a big year on the 2B prospect watch. One of our 50 MI prospects needs to step it up. Is Herrera going to be at AA or AAA?

[hiaspire]

When you don't have an elite power slugger to cement the lineup, sometimes you do have to look for offense from non-traditional places. Especially if you want to build an offense to take advantage of your park and overpower teams offensively as we have done in some of our more successful times.

Cantu is a guy I would pick up if he was a lower risk gamble. I wouldn't want to invest a ton into acquiring him, though. At the very least if he didn't become your everyday guy, he could be a nice bat off the bench (better then most middle infield bench bats) in certain situations who could fill in at a couple infield spots for depth.

Corey Wimberly is who I'd like to see take a big Tulo-like step forward and be his teammate up the middle in the starting lineup in 2008.

[Roxpert]

Wimberly is hurt right now if you check the minor league reports. He is also about the least powerful guy in the minor leagues, though his speed and contact rate allow him to compile a high average. I'd think Herrera, Eric Almonte, and Clint Barmes would be ahead of Wimberly on our farm system depth chart as far as being possible internal solutions for 2nd base next year. And none of them are really "solutions" when you think about it.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Wimberly is hurt right now if you check the minor league reports.

I certainly do. Him being day-to-day with a hammy in early April 2007 isn't really a factor for next year IMO.

Those others mentioned are not in the same category. They are backup fodder while Wimberly is amongst some of the better pure traditional leadoff candidates around the minors. Wimberly certainly isn't a power hitter nor does he need to be to give this team the high OBP they need at the top of the order to provide baserunners in scoring position for their power hitters below.

A big season in AA will shoot him right to the top of that list and certainly above guys like Almonte on yours.

[RMF]

I think Herrera took a nice step forward last season. I certainly don't expect him to be anything special. However, he strikes me as a guy who could be above average defensively and solid offensively. He looked good in the uniform.

I've got no problem with adding Cantu. I wouldn't mind seeing his power lower in our lineup.

We've also got to think about Clint Barmes as an option at 2B.

I still think Mr. Barmes is going to re-invent himself. It's awfully difficult to re-invent yourself in one offseason. He needs to stay positive and realize that AAA really is a better place for him to learn about his new approach.

I honeslty can't believe that the Rockies kept Mabry on this team. I honestly have no idea why he made the 25. I'm at a loss.

[RMF]

On a side note, anyone catch who's going to be starting in CF for TB. It's going to be very interesting to watch Mr. Dukes play a MLB CF.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Cantu isn't just a bad 2nd baseman. He's an indescribably awful 2nd baseman; we're talking ~20 runs below average over a full season.

Heltonfan, I agree, even though I don't think he's quite that bad in the field.

Pinto's numbers for 2005 and 2006 (scroll down for all the tables)

Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range Archives

show Cantu at 24 fewer outs recorded per year than expected in both '05 and '06. Now his '05 season was really pretty awful since he failed to convert those 24 outs as a second baseman despite playing only about 30% of the time at second. But last year he played about as much second base as Jamey Carroll (maybe 75% of the time). So lets round up his 24 "missed" balls to about 32.

Do 30 missed outs translate into 20 runs? I don't know ... what's the standard equation?

So if you think Cantu gives up 32 extra outs a year, even if you think he'll hit like he did in '05 (28 HRs, .286 BA), it would be like chopping 32 hits off his BA. And -- over 500 ABs -- that would be like having an average fielder at 2B who hits .222. And one who walks at an Aaron Miles-ish (Rox days) rate.

At any rate, he's certainly one of the poorest fielding regular second basemen (only Todd Walker was worse last year), and I don't want him at 2B on my team. And since he doesn't really hit enough to play 3B or 1B or DH (the only real alternatives), Tampa Bay has correctly decided that he's just not very useful. But Kaz Matsui is just a hair above Cantu on Pinto's 2006 charts, and he won't give you a shot at 30 HRs.

FWIW, BP has Cantu at -10 RAR in 102 games, so that would be about 16 runs below average. So both play by play and aggregate systems agree: he sucks. And given his build he's almost certain to get worse rather than better.

Then again, in another small sample in '05 Matsui comes in just barely above average. And Pinto has Helton somewhat below average for a first baseman last year, too, while BP has him slightly above. So take all these fielding numbers with a grain of kosher salt.

I do think the Rockies will be putting a fine fielding club on the field again. I'd say:

Below Average: 3B (but Atkins is not awful)

Average: LF (BP has Holliday just slightly above average, Pinto has him right at average)

Average to Slightly Above Average: Catcher (I'm guessing Iannetta will be about average, Torrealba was better than average last year), SS (hard to gauge Tulo at this point), 2B (depends how much time Carroll gets)

Above Average: 1B, CF, RF (Hawpe's range shows as average in Pinto's system, but his superb arm vaults him above average).

Overall, I think defense won't give us much cause for concern.

Let the games begin!

[Heltonfan]

Do 30 missed outs translate into 20 runs? I don't know ... what's the standard equation?

Standard equation for second base is .75 runs per play.

FWIW, my defensive projections for our regulars (based on the Chris Dial method, with ZR and outfield assists):

Iannetta: -2 (tiny sample, but throwing out 14% of basestealers isn't very good)
Helton: 0 (I'd like to believe that this was wrong, but honestly, his range isn't what it used to be)
Matsui: 0 (Carroll +4)
Tulowitzki: -7 (tiny sample, but a .782 ZR for a SS is horrible)
Atkins: -2
Holliday: +1
Taveras: +2
Hawpe: 0 (the arm is wonderful. But average range? I'm not buying it)

I'll take the over on Tulo and Taveras (the THT fielding numbers, which I'm trying to incorporate into my system, absolutely love Willy T), but beyond that, I think those numbers look about right. Average-ish fielders across the board, basically.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Yeah, that -7 for Tulo looks way low.

He's the type of player who's going to learn to maximize his positioning to play to his strength -- that tremendous arm. I don't think he's going to be better than average, but I watched a number of ST games Tivo and I've got to say he looked great.

And I do think Hawpe has roughly average range in RF.

[madness]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

I dunno.....Vinny might be able to convince Dan (or whoever the GM is in the future) that we can give up "some defense" at 2nd base for an offensive 2nd baseman who can hit 30+ homers at age 25 playing at Coors.

And, realistically, Cantu could put up a .290/.330/530 line playing for us. He had a poor season in 2006 due to the effects of a fractured foot. Look at how he did at age 22 in 2005.

BTW, that was also the rap on Jeff Kent when the Giants traded Matt Williams after 1996, in exchange for Kent (and others). Kent was a bad defensive 2nd baseman, maybe the worst in the league, a rap he earned in his Mets days.

I do agree that Carroll is a far superior defender and OBP guy. But he's no potential "Blake Street Bomber", which Cantu is.

BTW, one other potential future 2nd baseman IF only the Rox would think outside the box is Jeff Baker. He was a shortstop at Clemson, moved to 3rd base due to Khalil Greene, and certainly could learn the position as well as, say, Todd Walker did. Baker could be a fine offensive 2nd baseman. The Rox don't seem to be thinking that way, though.

Baker really would profile as a Jeff Kent type of offensive second baseman. It really seems like a better long term option for getting his bat in the line-up than the wild Baker to CF rumors.