2007 Rockies Offseason Thread | Rumors/Transactions/Discussion - Page 4

Heltonfan · December 6th, 2006, 12:39 PM

When I refer to runs, I'm not talking about runs scored. I'm talking about runs created. The value of a player's OBP won't necessarily show up in his own runs scored total, but it will show up in the team total.

Schmidt to LA? Ugh. I was really hoping he'd leave the division. Nice move for Colletti and the Dodgers, even if it is just the proverbial blind pig finding an acorn.

rockieprogress · December 6th, 2006, 02:54 PM

HF, What's the correlation between team runs scored, and OPB as a result of BB's? You lost me on that one.

I thought Hawpe's higher OPB was a result of his BB's since he had 6 less hits. Am I wrong?

Heltonfan · December 6th, 2006, 03:32 PM

You pointed out that Jones scored 6 more runs than Hawpe, presumably suggesting that Hawpe's OBP advantage might not have the impact that I said it does. I'm just saying that the value of an individual player's OBP extends beyond his own runs scored total. In other words, you can't say that Hawpe's OBP led to six less runs than Jones's just because Jones scored six more runs.

Roxpert · December 6th, 2006, 04:51 PM

One example, Heltonfan:

Hawpe leads off in the 4th inning and draws a walk. The next batter hits into a 4-6 force play. Torrealba then doubles in the runner, NOT named Hawpe.

A run scored as a result of Hawpe's walk, but the run is credited to the guy who hit into the force play.

There are numerous other situations that could make your point.

GoldGlove · December 7th, 2006, 12:31 AM

Big Helton Rumor (although the deal is now "on life support"):

Helton going to the Angels for Figgins, Kotchman, and Erick Aybar

According to Rotoworld, the Rockies were willing to pick up some of the $88 million or so left on Helton's contract, but not enough to please the Angels.

The Rockies say that Helton isn't being shopped but they were still listening to the Angels' inquiry. They also say that specific names coming in return from the Angels were never discussed.

Also, the Rockies have upped their offer to JJ to 3 years, $24 million plus an option for a fourth year.

Rankal · December 7th, 2006, 01:03 AM

Link to above rumor:
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...la-home-sports

Is it sad that I actually really like that deal? How would we shift our line up?

Figgins played a lot of 3B for the Angels and has utility-man all over him. Any given day could feature...

C Closser
1B Atkins/Hawpe/Kotchman/Figgins
2B Matsui/Carrol/Figgins
SS Tulo/Barmes/Figgins
3B Atkins/Baker/Figgins
LF Holiday
CF Spilb?
RF Hawpe/Figgins/Baker

It would give us so much flexibility if it happened, plus our rookie 1B down in AA/AAA (forget his name, forgive me) could get a shot in the fall to see if he's the real deal.

GerryInCS · December 7th, 2006, 02:34 AM

Joel Koshansky I believe is the name of the 1B you forgot. I love this deal, who cares if we have to eat a little bit of Helton's contract. The Rox should used to that after Hampton, Neagle and Walker. Plus this would give Helton the opportunity to DH and take time of from playing 1B.

At C, you have Closser, which is wrong. He's a Brewer now. Iannetta or Torrealba in that slot

sg8335aa · December 7th, 2006, 04:19 AM

Considering that Helton made himself into a Gold Glove defensive 1B.....I highly doubt he'll be "DHing" all that much.

CSM · December 7th, 2006, 08:35 AM

-Tom Martin re-signed to a 1-year contract worth $800,000 (pending a physical).

-C Salomon Manriquez selected in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft.

UPDATE: Manriquez was traded to Texas for cash considerations.

-Interested in Karim Garcia?
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_4793330

GerryInCS · December 7th, 2006, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sg8335aa

Considering that Helton made himself into a Gold Glove defensive 1B.....I highly doubt he'll be "DHing" all that much.

Maybe not in 2007, but 2009-2011 might see a change in heart

RMF · December 7th, 2006, 02:39 PM

Look Todd Helton is an OBP freak. His skills should age about as well as can be expected. He's going to be able to double you to death untill the end of his contract. Is he a slugger anymore? No but IMO he's worth more than what Anaheim was offering.

What do we re-invest our money in? Josh Fogg? Maybe we lock up Atkins, Holliday. I can't believe we were going to pick up $$$.

TheIncredibleRox · December 7th, 2006, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldGlove

Big Helton Rumor (although the deal is now "on life support"):

Helton going to the Angels for Figgins, Kotchman, and Erick Aybar

That would make my year.

I'm disturbed by Kotchman's apparent post-'04 dropoff (in fairness he missed most of this season), and I think Figgins is quite overrated. But Aybar looks very promising, and those are three big chips to get in return for a salary dump.

Heltonfan · December 7th, 2006, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

I'm disturbed by Kotchman's apparent post-'04 dropoff (in fairness he missed most of this season)...

There's really no drop-off, I don't think. Kotchman has been absurdly consistent when healthy enough to play (ABRs of .246, .244, .248 from '03-'05)... I'm somewhat disturbed by the lack of progress, but those are awfully good numbers for someone so young. And considering that he was trying to play through mononucleosis, I think it's fair to ignore his '06 numbers. I'd love to have him. And I like Aybar quite a bit as well; he's not too far behind Tulo.

Anyway, the real question here is how much of Helton's contract we should be willing to cover. Some quick estimates:
- Helton: 200 RAR over the next five years.
- Figgins: 30 RAR over the next two years.
- Kotchman: 70 RAR over the next five years.
- Aybar: 60 RAR from now until he hits free agency (probably after 2013).

That's a pretty generous projection for Helton (it assumes that he stays healthy and hits much better than he did this year). And I think those are conservative estimates for Kotchman and Aybar... if they turn into average regulars or better, they'll fly past those projections. And, making those assumptions, the Helton trade costs us a mere 40 runs, or 4 wins: a value of around $10 million.

So Helton makes $90 million, Figgins makes $8.25 million, Kotchman and Aybar make maybe $20 million between the two of them before hitting free agency... the difference in salaries is around $60 million. And the difference in value is around $10 million. Which means that we could send $30 million to LAA and still come out well ahead. If there's any chance of the Angels actually going for this, O'Dowd needs to be doing everything he can to make it happen. Kotchman/Aybar/Figgins is a terrific package.

BigRapidsJackass · December 7th, 2006, 08:47 PM

Nice analysis, HF.

The Angels are a perfect match for Helton. The other obvious matches are the Yankees and Red Sox, but I think a country boy like Helton would shy away from the big lights. The chances he'd accept a trade to Anaheim are, I think, much better. And the Angels certainly have a troubled offense in need of a significant boost.

Let's get it done, Danno!

CSM · December 8th, 2006, 10:59 PM

Some insight on who O’Dowd might be targeting in a potential Jason Jennings deal:

http://test.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_4806278

Jennings for Hirsh and Taveras OR Wheeler?
Jennings for Danks and C.J. Wilson?

I’m skeptical that Tim Purpura or Jon Daniels would give up that much for JJ, but I’d be very happy if either of those trades were made.

December 7th, 2006, 12:31 AM	#50 (permalink)
GoldGlove Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Kansas City Posts: 38	Legit Helton Rumor + Updated Jennings Offer Big Helton Rumor (although the deal is now "on life support"): Helton going to the Angels for Figgins, Kotchman, and Erick Aybar According to Rotoworld, the Rockies were willing to pick up some of the $88 million or so left on Helton's contract, but not enough to please the Angels. The Rockies say that Helton isn't being shopped but they were still listening to the Angels' inquiry. They also say that specific names coming in return from the Angels were never discussed. Also, the Rockies have upped their offer to JJ to 3 years, $24 million plus an option for a fourth year.

December 7th, 2006, 02:34 AM	#52 (permalink)
GerryInCS New Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 635	Joel Koshansky I believe is the name of the 1B you forgot. I love this deal, who cares if we have to eat a little bit of Helton's contract. The Rox should used to that after Hampton, Neagle and Walker. Plus this would give Helton the opportunity to DH and take time of from playing 1B. At C, you have Closser, which is wrong. He's a Brewer now. Iannetta or Torrealba in that slot Last edited by GerryInCS; December 7th, 2006 at 02:36 AM.

December 7th, 2006, 04:19 AM	#53 (permalink)
sg8335aa Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 118	Helton at DH Considering that Helton made himself into a Gold Glove defensive 1B.....I highly doubt he'll be "DHing" all that much.

December 7th, 2006, 08:35 AM	#54 (permalink)
CSM Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 33	Transactions / Rumors -Tom Martin re-signed to a 1-year contract worth $800,000 (pending a physical). -C Salomon Manriquez selected in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 draft. UPDATE: Manriquez was traded to Texas for cash considerations. -Interested in Karim Garcia? http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_4793330 Last edited by CSM; December 7th, 2006 at 11:41 AM.

December 8th, 2006, 10:59 PM	#60 (permalink)
CSM Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 33	Jennings speculation Some insight on who O’Dowd might be targeting in a potential Jason Jennings deal: http://test.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_4806278 Jennings for Hirsh and Taveras OR Wheeler? Jennings for Danks and C.J. Wilson? I’m skeptical that Tim Purpura or Jon Daniels would give up that much for JJ, but I’d be very happy if either of those trades were made.

December 6th, 2006, 12:39 PM	#46 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	When I refer to runs, I'm not talking about runs scored. I'm talking about runs created. The value of a player's OBP won't necessarily show up in his own runs scored total, but it will show up in the team total. Schmidt to LA? Ugh. I was really hoping he'd leave the division. Nice move for Colletti and the Dodgers, even if it is just the proverbial blind pig finding an acorn.

December 6th, 2006, 02:54 PM	#47 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 183	HF, What's the correlation between team runs scored, and OPB as a result of BB's? You lost me on that one. I thought Hawpe's higher OPB was a result of his BB's since he had 6 less hits. Am I wrong?

December 6th, 2006, 03:32 PM	#48 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	You pointed out that Jones scored 6 more runs than Hawpe, presumably suggesting that Hawpe's OBP advantage might not have the impact that I said it does. I'm just saying that the value of an individual player's OBP extends beyond his own runs scored total. In other words, you can't say that Hawpe's OBP led to six less runs than Jones's just because Jones scored six more runs.

December 6th, 2006, 04:51 PM	#49 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	One example, Heltonfan: Hawpe leads off in the 4th inning and draws a walk. The next batter hits into a 4-6 force play. Torrealba then doubles in the runner, NOT named Hawpe. A run scored as a result of Hawpe's walk, but the run is credited to the guy who hit into the force play. There are numerous other situations that could make your point.

December 7th, 2006, 01:03 AM	#51 (permalink)
Rankal Banned Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 84	Link to above rumor: http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-...la-home-sports Is it sad that I actually really like that deal? How would we shift our line up? Figgins played a lot of 3B for the Angels and has utility-man all over him. Any given day could feature... C Closser 1B Atkins/Hawpe/Kotchman/Figgins 2B Matsui/Carrol/Figgins SS Tulo/Barmes/Figgins 3B Atkins/Baker/Figgins LF Holiday CF Spilb? RF Hawpe/Figgins/Baker It would give us so much flexibility if it happened, plus our rookie 1B down in AA/AAA (forget his name, forgive me) could get a shot in the fall to see if he's the real deal.

December 7th, 2006, 02:39 PM	#56 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 206	Look Todd Helton is an OBP freak. His skills should age about as well as can be expected. He's going to be able to double you to death untill the end of his contract. Is he a slugger anymore? No but IMO he's worth more than what Anaheim was offering. What do we re-invest our money in? Josh Fogg? Maybe we lock up Atkins, Holliday. I can't believe we were going to pick up $$$.

December 7th, 2006, 08:47 PM	#59 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Nice analysis, HF. The Angels are a perfect match for Helton. The other obvious matches are the Yankees and Red Sox, but I think a country boy like Helton would shy away from the big lights. The chances he'd accept a trade to Anaheim are, I think, much better. And the Angels certainly have a troubled offense in need of a significant boost. Let's get it done, Danno!