2007 Rockies Offseason Thread | Rumors/Transactions/Discussion

[sg8335aa]

Are you kidding me?.....this is the exact type of signing in "this wild market" that is really GOOD.

The $3.5 million isn't really a factor. Sure its a bit high, but when faced with the alternative (Mesa)....I have no problem with it.

The point we should be focusing in is the ONE YEAR DEAL. In this market, with most relievers getting 2-3 year contracts (thanks Baltimore), we're not on the hook for Hawkins if he doesn't prove his worth this season.

My guess is that we could have gotten him for as little as $2.5 per year if we signed him to a 2-year contract. I'd rather pay MORE and only be committed to him for one season.

O'Dowd has been trying to get this guy for years. Its about time to see if he can handle Coors.

[sg8335aa]

Baseball cube has this guy pitching in the Pioneer League in 1995, so I'm assuming he's at least in his late 20s by now

Two things.....First, he's 24. Second, Baseball Cube has a few errors in its database. Go back through the draft for the past several seasons. You'll see guys with stats from 99-04.....but also have stats in 1982 as well. Baseball Cube is working through some data that has repeated with "similar names".

I highly doubt it was Rivera that played in the Pioneer League back in 95. Rather it was someone with a similar name that showed up in his profile. The Cube is a great resource.....just remember their still ironing out a few kinks. Be sure to notify them when you see errors like this.

Thanks, Vinny.

I'll second that HF! Say what you will about signing Castilla last year for his "swan song" and ability to retire a Rockie. But if it ultimately means that he loves the Rockies so much that he's willing to go to bat for us down in Mexico....then it was worth every single penny. I wonder if the Front Office has/will sign him as a scout down there?

I LOVED that we signed him away from the Dodgers based SOLELY on Castilla basically saying "no, no....sign with the Rockies and NOT the Dodgers....trust me.....I'm a Mexican Baseball Legend"

Anytime we can beat the Dodgers to a kid........anywhere......I consider that a huge win.

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

But c'mon, do we really have anything close to a sufficient sample to calculate MLEs and make projections for Mexican League players?

Sure. Plenty of players have jumped from the Mexican league to AA or AAA, or vice versa. For simplicity's sake, I treat the Mexican League as equal in quality to AA; if that's not correct, it's darn close (in an article from three years ago, Clay Davenport rates it ever so slightly below AA). I'm obviously not as confident in the Mexican League translations as I am in the others, but it shouldn't be too far off.

Re: Hawkins... I don't like the $3.5 million. I do like the one year. It may be best for us to simply accept that the only really good offseason acquisitions are going to be the scrap heap finds like Rivera, and that any money spent on the free agent market will yield mediocre returns at best. As I said in another thread, I would have liked to see us make a run at Julio Lugo, but even if we did, the odds of Lugo actually choosing the Rockies would have been slim. In other words, we might as well spend our extra money somehow. And Hawkins isn't a bad gamble at all.

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

In fact, if you can get Jose Mesa back for a million bucks I'd actually prefer that to Hawkins at 3.5 times more money.

I wouldn't. Hawkins projects at 3.71 (incidentally, Danys Baez projects at 3.70 - which makes the Orioles look even dumber than you might have thought). Mesa is replacement level.

[Roxpert]

Well, the Hawkins signing is exactly the type of acquisition that has been an O'Dowd strength since he has been GM. His ability to cobble together cheap and relatively effective bullpens has superceded his abilities in most other areas other than in dumping salaries. I look at this Hawkins signing as analagous to the Todd Jones signing a few years ago. That worked out well for us (for one year, anyway).

Hawkins is a value play due to the short length of contractual commitment. While $3.5 million is an inflated amount, it's only for a year and is really a bargain relative to some of the other crazy relief pitcher signings this offseason.

If we get the 2002-04 Hawkins, we should be happy. If we get the 2005-06 Hawkins, he will remind us of Jose Mesa, in a bad way. Since he's 34, and coming off a challenging year with groin and personal issues, maybe he's due for a comeback of sorts toward his form from earlier this decade. Let's hope so.

[rockieprogress]

"In this market, with most relievers getting 2-3 year contracts (thanks Baltimore)"

As both sg and HF have pointed out, I'm astonished by the Baltimore signings. I can see that they would need to overpay to get a player to sign with a bad franchise (thanks Peter Angelos) but their signings are starting to throw this entire off-season into an exercise to see who can pay the most for the least amount of talent.

LaTroy Hawkins? $3.5M? If he was anything other than a stopgap at this point in his career, he would've stayed with one team for at least the last couple of years.
Instead he's bounced around. There can be acceptable scrapheap signings, and then there can be Ray King revisited.
Except this time, continuing lack of ability might have been verified by more than one team.

[sg8335aa]

The only key sidenote to the Hawkins signing is that he is a Type B free agent. Which means that we'll be giving Baltimore our 2nd round pick in next year's draft.

I'm not completely opposed to this consider our track record with 2nd round picks, however it should be at least noted.

I don't think we could have waited until after the arbitration deadline and still gotten a quality arm in this market.

It should be thought of as $3.5 million and a 2nd round pick.

We just need to root for someone to sign Jose Mesa in the next week or two so we can get a 2nd rounder back (Mesa is a Type B free agent)

[Heltonfan]

Under the new collective bargaining agreement, Type B free agents don't cost the signing club a draft pick. The Orioles will get a sandwich pick as compensation for losing Hawkins, but it doesn't cost us anything.

[Rankal]

I rather like the Hawkins signing, personally. Call it blind faith in a reliever. If he ends up being Mesa/King part 2, then so be it, at least it's only a year.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Hawkins projects at 3.71 (incidentally, Danys Baez projects at 3.70 - which makes the Orioles look even dumber than you might have thought). Mesa is replacement level.

Mesa may be replacement level, but he's priced accordingly.

Here's Hawkins' K/9 rates since 2002:

7.06
8.73
7.57
6.16
7.23
6.87
4.03

He's the classic "if he isn't hurt, he's sure pitching like he is" case.

By the way, the idea that Dan O'Dowd has a special skill at finding cheap and effective relievers is kind of accepted by everyone around here. I'm not so convinced. Yes, there've been a few very notable successes. Justin Speier and Brian Fuentes among them. But how about the notable failures? Here's the bullpen pickups since the post-2000 offseason. The whole list of everyone who pitched more than about 20 innings in relief, or those who were picked up to assume a relatively significant role; I'm not trying to trick you by being selective:

Acquired for/during 2001 season:
Kane Davis
Justin Speier
Ron Villone
Jay Powell
Juan Acevedo
Dan Miceli I

2002 season:
Todd Jones
Justin Speier
Kent Mercker
Dennys Reyes
Rick White
Chris Nichting (actually picked up late '01)
Brian Fuentes
Victor Santos

2003 season:
Nelson Cruz
Javy Lopez
Adam Bernero
Steve Reed
Dan Miceli, Pt. II (arrived late '02)

2004 season:
Turk Wendell
Vladimir Nunez
Jeff Fassero
Allan Simpson (looks like he washed out of Milwaukee, too ... still waiting, HF?)

2005 season:
David Cortes
Marcos Carvajal
Mike DeJean
Jose Acevedo
Jay Witasick
Randy Williams
Blaine Neal
Bobby Seay
Matt Anderson
Dan Miceli, Pt. III

2006 season:
Jose Mesa
Tom Martin
Ray King
Manny Corpas
Ramon Ramirez
Jeremy Affeldt
Nate Field
Mike DeJean, Pt. II

Still impressed?

Yes, O'Dowd has shown the ability to find guys stuck in other clubs' farm systems who then blossomed with the Rockies: Justin Speier (a waiver claim), Brian Fuentes (for Jeff Cirillo!) have been unqualified successes. Guys like Javy Lopez and (so far) Ramirez and Corpas have put in at least a few good months of work.

But the "proven veteran relievers" are another story. In fact, I'd say O'Dowd has quite a horrible record in obtaining veteran relievers -- the guys who have been around as established MLB relievers for some time. Steve Reed, 3 months each of Jay Witasick and Jay Powell, and a couple Dan Miceli half seasons are the only real "finds" that I can find. And these are outweighed by the total washouts: Reyes, Wendell, Nunez, King, Fassero, Cruz, White, Mesa. And notice that the washout ratio has gotten much worse since 2003.

So when O'Dowd goes out and gets that Mexican League guy like Cortes or this new guy, I say "fine." He's had some real skill in finding this cheapo guys hidden in other systems or other countries.

But when you say "Latroy Hawkins for $3.5 million," I'm thinking Jose Mesa, Ray King, Turk Wendell, Vladimir Nunez, Jeff Fassero ....

[TheIncredibleRox]

The K rate scares me too. He's also had bouts of homeritis in his past.

By the standards of this offseason, I call this a pretty decent gamble.

By the standards of our needs and budget, I feel it's a more expensive gamble than we can afford to make.

There's at least a decent chance (25% ?) that his K rate could rebound, the HR rate stays low, and he's a very good--if not lights out-- eighth inning guy. But balancing risks, rewards, and available talent, I have a hard time giving this move a thumbs up.

[sg8335aa]

According to PurpleRow.....

Word from Ken Rosenthal has the Rockies/Cubs talking about a 3-team deal with JJ going to the Cubs for Jacque Jones and a pitcher.

Jones would then be flipped to an unnamed 3rd team (my guess is it would be for a CF or another pitcher?)

Here's to hoping the 3rd team falls through and we get stuck holding Jacque Jones! **sigh**

Just a rumor.....so no need to breakdown this scenario.....for good reason.

[RMF]

I've heard the pitcher would be Wuertz. (That sounds like O'dowd) However, you have to wonder, what would we get for Jones that could help?.

The NY Mets absolutely need to trade for a SP. We need a CF. That is a trade that absolutely has to happen.

[Roxpert]

Another name to throw into the hopper, courtesy of Rotoworld...


The Twins have reportely discussed Juan Rincon with the Rockies and Astros.

It's likely the Twins have talked about both Rincon and Jesse Crain in their conversations with Colorado about Jason Jennings. It's more difficult to see a fit with Houston, another team looking for starting pitching. Rincon for Morgan Ensberg would be a nice deal for Minnesota, but it'd hardly be a typical Terry Ryan move.

[Rankal]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Another name to throw into the hopper, courtesy of Rotoworld...


The Twins have reportely discussed Juan Rincon with the Rockies and Astros.

It's likely the Twins have talked about both Rincon and Jesse Crain in their conversations with Colorado about Jason Jennings. It's more difficult to see a fit with Houston, another team looking for starting pitching. Rincon for Morgan Ensberg would be a nice deal for Minnesota, but it'd hardly be a typical Terry Ryan move.

I would prefer Rincon and Crain for Jennings than the other names thrown out by the Cubs and the supposed "3rd team" involving Jones. We already have one former (possibly washed-up) Twin, don't really want two.

[wolf213]

Jones plus something else wouldn't be too bad, but he's a corner outfielder and I believe Holliday/Hawpe and Baker will be much better, and Jones in CF is an ugly thought.

I don't see much of a market for Jones right now anyways, if the Cubs want Jennings they should start with Pie, and some pitching.