Stat Number Crunching Help for Purist Dinosaurs

Newman · 03-03-2007, 08:45 AM

OK, I admit to being stupid. About numbers. I've always had math phobia since grade school, when I was daydreaming during the lesson about "carrying". Probably dreaming about being Willie Mays...

I see the numbers all the time. But I don't know what they mean. They are trotted out as a given. I can't be the only one here who doesn't know or isn't sure.

Here's my question. Let's say it's Helton. And his fictional line is:

Helton: .301 .310 .350 .395

I'm supposed to know what that means?! I don't. I know I've asked before, and was answered, and then promptly forgot the answer, or where to look for it!

I'm assuming one number is projected batting average. One is OBP? OPS? But in what order? And what is the 4th number?

Q: where is the Bible for number crunching? Do you go to

www.baseballnumbercrunching.com or something??

I'd like to keep this thread going, so I could learn, and also so I could refer to it when I inevitably forget. Thanks.

Heltonfan · 03-03-2007, 09:50 AM

Nice thread title.

Quote:

Helton: .301 .310 .350 .395

This is an impossible line, because when numbers are presented in this way, they are BA/OBP/SLG/OPS (in that order). And since OPS is OBP + SLG, you would have .301/.310/.350/.660. Although not from Todd Helton. I don't believe that's a physically possible line for him, even in his weakened state. Maybe Taveras, though...

Quote:

Q: where is the Bible for number crunching?

There is no sabermetric Bible, for the same reason that there is no scientific Bible (namely, that it's science, so there's no infallibility). I suppose this might correspond to On the Origin of Species, though.

HoyaRoxFan · 03-03-2007, 10:39 AM

Are box scores kept for the spring training intra-squad games? Any way to get the stats from yesterday's game?

hiaspire · 03-03-2007, 01:20 PM

Speaking of links, the old boards are now gone and with them some previous off-season acquisition projections expectations unfortunately. I forget who liked Zito, Lee, Gary Mathews Jr. on his way to scandal, etc. That's important stuff for theory accountability.

If we are making links here it would be interesting to collect as many different public projection resources along with that to see which resource is most reliable in the most accepted measurements. Diamond Mind's will be out soon, and there will be many fantasy sites that put up their projection numbers as well but some of them require a fee for complete data download. I hope to get a collection of some inside-baseball individual player expectations as well to post before the season starts.

BigRapidsJackass · 03-03-2007, 03:48 PM

Aspire, I noticed that about the old scout.com boards. Too bad. Some nice posts there lost to eternity. But it has its benefits. I can pretend I never said Jose Valentin is washed up.

Gary Mathews Jr. shows the difficulty with projections in the performance enhancing drugs era. Most people thought his "breakout" season last year was a fluke. They will be proven right if Sarge Jr. need to lay off the HGH now that he knows he's being watched like a hawk.

Newman: for offensive performance, focus on the OPS. It is the best readily-available measure and it's based on things us non-kids (read: Heltonfan) are used to. On-base percentage + Slugging percentage. And the math geeks have proved to me that it's pretty darn good for estimating offensive production. Once you get used to that (and it's easy: a 1.000 OPS is elite, .900 very good, .800 good for some postions but you wouldn't be happy with a first baseman with an .800 OPS, .700 bad unless you're Ozzie Smith caliber on defense, .650 Barmes territory), it's not hard to get used to other things like VORP.

EDIT: Gee, thanks Heltonfan for giving us a link to a book that's only available "used" for $40 at Amazon. Maybe Newman can "borrow" it the next time someone on his mail route orders it? BTW, Newman, is there any truth to that rumor? I swear I used to get a used copy of Sports Illustrated a day or two later than most people (and not just the swimsuit issue).

Here's a great starting point for thinking about baseball in a stats-oriented way:

The Baseball Analysts

Look along the left column for their "Abstracts on the [Bill James Baseball] Abstracts." These are lengthy summaries of the Bill James annuals from 1977 to 1988. I only got into these in the last couple years in which he published them, so until I read these baseballanalysts.com posts I never realized exactly how much of what is now "common knowledge" originated with Bill James. In fact, I'd even ascribed certain concepts like "old player skills" to followers of Bill James like Rob Neyer and John Sickels. They are Bill James ideas, and like almost everything he wrote back then they'll help you see baseball player performance in a new light.

Roxpert · 03-03-2007, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Newman: for offensive performance, focus on the OPS. It is the best readily-available measure and it's based on things us non-kids (read: Heltonfan) are used to. On-base percentage + Slugging percentage. And the math geeks have proved to me that it's pretty darn good for estimating offensive production.

OPS also correlates very well with winning. I read an article a few years ago that looked at the various stats such as AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Not surprisingly, the team with the better OPS in a game wins 85% of the time, a much higher percentage than the other stats.

Now, if only boxscores would show OPS (such as a new righthand column), it would be very instructional!

Heltonfan · 03-03-2007, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Gee, thanks Heltonfan for giving us a link to a book that's only available "used" for $40 at Amazon.

Heh... I don't even own that book myself. And it's more of a historical curiosity than anything else, at this point. I just couldn't think of anything else that constitutes anything close to a seminal document in the sort of number-crunching that I do (nor, for that matter, do I even view something like OPS as "number-crunching" at all... but it is a pretty good starting point).

These sorts of threads always make me somewhat uncomfortable, because as a practitioner rather than a consumer, it's tough to speak for the field of sabermetrics as a whole (nor do I think I would want to, even if I could). Perhaps I should write up a brief summary of my own interpretation of sabermetric theory.

Oh, and in response to HoyaRoxFan: I'm not aware of any source for box scores from intrasquad games. They're not official games, so I'm guessing that MLB doesn't do any stat-keeping at all for them.

Newman · 03-03-2007, 10:04 PM

Thanks for the info and suggestions everybody. Appreciate it.

BRJ, I can only speak for myself. I never have TIME to read SI or any other magazine. I'm never fast enough for my boss and my peers. I'm generally too social, don't have the time to read stuff, and am always playing catch up, hurrying to get back in time.

Other mailmen might read a magazine during lunch or take it home and deliver it the next day. It is possible of course. Not sure it would be worth the risk.

RMF · 03-04-2007, 01:38 PM

Newman, that's a good safe answer. You never know who might be monitoring these channels.

end transmission.

BigRapidsJackass · 03-04-2007, 07:43 PM

I have the utmost respect for our noble letter carriers.

No, really, I'm not kidding.

I've never complained once. I don't really mind if they "share" my magazines with me, as long as it's only for a day. I kind of wish they wanted more Crate and Barrel catalogs, though.

Maybe I've been lucky but my mailmen have never let me down. Workers at the local Post Office are a different story.

Writing that post above made me go back and read the "Abstracts on the Abstracts" again (the Bill James thing). It was worth it!

hiaspire · 03-04-2007, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Gary Mathews Jr. shows the difficulty with projections in the performance enhancing drugs era. Most people thought his "breakout" season last year was a fluke. They will be proven right if Sarge Jr. need to lay off the HGH now that he knows he's being watched like a hawk.

Not as I recall it, but that's why it would be nice to reference. I know I talked a lot about I'd much rather invest in the proven commodities that were so unpopular here. He deserved to be at the end of that discussed scale instead of the others, not the other way around - at least that's how it will turn out IMO. And you make an excellent point that needs to be highlighted whenever these projections get too much weight.

indianadrew · 06-29-2007, 08:36 PM

Baseball Almanac - 1960 World Series Game 7 Box Score

newman, i found this page that i thought was very helpful.

bedir than average · 06-29-2007, 08:38 PM

Tango on Baseball

He has some good introductory work into sabermetrics

indianadrew · 09-30-2007, 06:25 PM

i was wondering if there was a stat that put team payroll in relation to wins. HF do you know of any?

Newman · 09-30-2007, 11:26 PM

The more money you spend wisely, the more games you will win. That's the Newman Rule. Talent costs money. You get what you pay for. The Yanks spend the most money and huh, they are in the playoffs once again. Go figure.

There probably is some correlation between not spending much money like Tampa Bay and not winning very often, I'm betting.

HeltonFan is probably crunching the one game playoff numbers right now, as we wait. Home teams usually win those, right? Didn't Bobby Thomson win that playoff in 1951 with the shot heard round the world, in NYC, right?

I remember the Peanuts cartoon when Willie McCovey lined out to somebody to lose an important game. Was that a World Series or a one game playoff?

03-03-2007, 08:45 AM	#1 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 553	Stat Number Crunching Help for Purist Dinosaurs OK, I admit to being stupid. About numbers. I've always had math phobia since grade school, when I was daydreaming during the lesson about "carrying". Probably dreaming about being Willie Mays... I see the numbers all the time. But I don't know what they mean. They are trotted out as a given. I can't be the only one here who doesn't know or isn't sure. Here's my question. Let's say it's Helton. And his fictional line is: Helton: .301 .310 .350 .395 I'm supposed to know what that means?! I don't. I know I've asked before, and was answered, and then promptly forgot the answer, or where to look for it! I'm assuming one number is projected batting average. One is OBP? OPS? But in what order? And what is the 4th number? Q: where is the Bible for number crunching? Do you go to www.baseballnumbercrunching.com or something?? I'd like to keep this thread going, so I could learn, and also so I could refer to it when I inevitably forget. Thanks.

03-03-2007, 01:20 PM	#4 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	You would say that... Don't the dinosaurs eat the scientists? Speaking of links, the old boards are now gone and with them some previous off-season acquisition projections expectations unfortunately. I forget who liked Zito, Lee, Gary Mathews Jr. on his way to scandal, etc. That's important stuff for theory accountability. If we are making links here it would be interesting to collect as many different public projection resources along with that to see which resource is most reliable in the most accepted measurements. Diamond Mind's will be out soon, and there will be many fantasy sites that put up their projection numbers as well but some of them require a fee for complete data download. I hope to get a collection of some inside-baseball individual player expectations as well to post before the season starts. Last edited by hiaspire; 03-03-2007 at 02:42 PM.

03-03-2007, 03:48 PM	#5 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,146	Aspire, I noticed that about the old scout.com boards. Too bad. Some nice posts there lost to eternity. But it has its benefits. I can pretend I never said Jose Valentin is washed up. Gary Mathews Jr. shows the difficulty with projections in the performance enhancing drugs era. Most people thought his "breakout" season last year was a fluke. They will be proven right if Sarge Jr. need to lay off the HGH now that he knows he's being watched like a hawk. Newman: for offensive performance, focus on the OPS. It is the best readily-available measure and it's based on things us non-kids (read: Heltonfan) are used to. On-base percentage + Slugging percentage. And the math geeks have proved to me that it's pretty darn good for estimating offensive production. Once you get used to that (and it's easy: a 1.000 OPS is elite, .900 very good, .800 good for some postions but you wouldn't be happy with a first baseman with an .800 OPS, .700 bad unless you're Ozzie Smith caliber on defense, .650 Barmes territory), it's not hard to get used to other things like VORP. EDIT: Gee, thanks Heltonfan for giving us a link to a book that's only available "used" for $40 at Amazon. Maybe Newman can "borrow" it the next time someone on his mail route orders it? BTW, Newman, is there any truth to that rumor? I swear I used to get a used copy of Sports Illustrated a day or two later than most people (and not just the swimsuit issue). Here's a great starting point for thinking about baseball in a stats-oriented way: The Baseball Analysts Look along the left column for their "Abstracts on the [Bill James Baseball] Abstracts." These are lengthy summaries of the Bill James annuals from 1977 to 1988. I only got into these in the last couple years in which he published them, so until I read these baseballanalysts.com posts I never realized exactly how much of what is now "common knowledge" originated with Bill James. In fact, I'd even ascribed certain concepts like "old player skills" to followers of Bill James like Rob Neyer and John Sickels. They are Bill James ideas, and like almost everything he wrote back then they'll help you see baseball player performance in a new light. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 03-03-2007 at 03:57 PM.

06-29-2007, 08:38 PM	#13 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,256	Tango on Baseball He has some good introductory work into sabermetrics __________________ US Men's National Team World Cup Qualifying \| Democracy in Sports Meets My First Campaign "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

03-03-2007, 10:39 AM	#3 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 288	Are box scores kept for the spring training intra-squad games? Any way to get the stats from yesterday's game?

03-03-2007, 10:04 PM	#8 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 553	Thanks for the info and suggestions everybody. Appreciate it. BRJ, I can only speak for myself. I never have TIME to read SI or any other magazine. I'm never fast enough for my boss and my peers. I'm generally too social, don't have the time to read stuff, and am always playing catch up, hurrying to get back in time. Other mailmen might read a magazine during lunch or take it home and deliver it the next day. It is possible of course. Not sure it would be worth the risk.

03-04-2007, 01:38 PM	#9 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 201	Newman, that's a good safe answer. You never know who might be monitoring these channels. end transmission.

03-04-2007, 07:43 PM	#10 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,146	I have the utmost respect for our noble letter carriers. No, really, I'm not kidding. I've never complained once. I don't really mind if they "share" my magazines with me, as long as it's only for a day. I kind of wish they wanted more Crate and Barrel catalogs, though. Maybe I've been lucky but my mailmen have never let me down. Workers at the local Post Office are a different story. Writing that post above made me go back and read the "Abstracts on the Abstracts" again (the Bill James thing). It was worth it!

06-29-2007, 08:36 PM	#12 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 568	Baseball Almanac - 1960 World Series Game 7 Box Score newman, i found this page that i thought was very helpful.

09-30-2007, 06:25 PM	#14 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 568	i was wondering if there was a stat that put team payroll in relation to wins. HF do you know of any?

09-30-2007, 11:26 PM	#15 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 553	The more money you spend wisely, the more games you will win. That's the Newman Rule. Talent costs money. You get what you pay for. The Yanks spend the most money and huh, they are in the playoffs once again. Go figure. There probably is some correlation between not spending much money like Tampa Bay and not winning very often, I'm betting. HeltonFan is probably crunching the one game playoff numbers right now, as we wait. Home teams usually win those, right? Didn't Bobby Thomson win that playoff in 1951 with the shot heard round the world, in NYC, right? I remember the Peanuts cartoon when Willie McCovey lined out to somebody to lose an important game. Was that a World Series or a one game playoff?