Spring Training Thread - Page 3

Roxpert · March 28th, 2007, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolf213

Let me say there have been some horrible developments coming late this spring:

Salazar was claimed by the D-backs. It makes no since why exposed Salazar to be claimed, while scrubs like Mabry and Finley are sure to make the team.

I did not know that, wolf. Thanks a LOT for letting us know!

Lack of attention to the little things such as the Salazar situation described above is one factor in why losing teams remain losing teams. That's just plain sloppy roster management by DOD, and really a shame to lose a decent 4th outfielder to keep two aging spare parts.

It hurts even more when that gaffe benefits another team in your division.

Having said that, what's more bothersome is the way the rotation and bullpen are shaping up going into the season. A cliche in baseball is to only pay attention to the final 10 days of spring training, not the first 20 days. If we apply that here, the trends are quite disturbing, and suggestive of the potential for the Rockies to get off to a "rocky" start in April.

Could the team ERA go from 4.66 last year to, say, 5.36 in 2007? I wouldn't discount that possibility. Besides being "regression to (or beyond) the mean" and the chance that Coors plays less pitcher-friendly in 2007, the quality of our pitching depth is suspect (though we do have some depth at this moment), and we will miss not having the 2006 version of Jason Jennings and his 200 innings. Yes, we wouldn't have that even if we kept Jennings, but things could get ugly fast. Hirsh is the wild card here, and I suspect as Hirsh goes in the early going, so goes our pitching and our team's early fortunes this year.

BigRapidsJackass · March 28th, 2007, 06:48 PM

First, I'll play devil's advocate: Salazar is 26, hasn't put up particularly good numbers at any level since A ball, has an injury history of the type that may repeat, and was passed on the depth chart by Spilborghs and Sullivan. The Sky Sox will already have Sullivan, Spilborghs, Barker (although he's really a non-prospect), Seth Smith, and Matt Miller to play OF. And then there's the chance that Stewart will be moved to the OF as soon as this year since he's going to be blocked by Atkins for the forseeable future. So: big deal.

But here's what I don't get: Salazar has options, and clearly has talent. So he goes back down to AA for a while. If he dominates, he's got trade value, or he comes back up. If Sullivan gets traded, there's room for him immediately. He's clearly still a better prospect than guys like Miller (a one-dimensional "hits" but not particularly "hits with power" corner outfielder) and Barker (who really doesn't do anything particularly well from what I've seen). So why the rush to clear roster space by exposing him to waivers?

Who's the obvious guy to go from the 40-man to make room? Well, first (as Wolf says), Steve Finley. He's already following the roadmap I laid out for him, only at a more accelerated pace: he started hot in spring training as pitchers worked up to regular season velocity and command, and he tailed off at the end. Expect more of the same in the regular season. Who else? Tom Martin. Yes, he may very well be useful this year. But there'll be about a dozen Tom Martin types released by other clubs in the next few days. He is the definition of "freely available talent." Alexis Gomez is on the 40-man, and I don't see any upside there. And so is Jayson Nix, who really, really hasn't shown anything and who also seems to have no place in the Springs since Barmes and Quintanilla should really get the starts at SS and 2B. Finally, Darren Clarke: he's big, he throws hard. He's also 26 years old, hurt again, and has never pitched above A ball. Again, there'll be a dozen Darren Clarkes passed through waivers in the next week or so.

So I just don't understand it. And I think there's a good chance you'll see Salazar in a Dbacks uniform before September. I just hope he hasn't saved his breakout for Arizona.

EDIT: by the way, Tom Martin's line today: 2 outs recorded, 2HR and 1 BB allowed. And yeah, he's heading north with the club on Friday. Can't he at least fake arm trouble or something so he can be DL'd and take a rehab assignment? The way he's going Hurdle can't use him for anything but mop-up work, and with early season off days in the schedule there really shouldn't be any need for a 12th pitcher until mid-April anyway. But Hurdle loves that 12 man staff ...

Roxpert · March 28th, 2007, 08:56 PM

Jackass, the obvious move for the Rockies to make in light of keeping Finley is to trade Sullivan and his $900k salary. Salazar is younger, cheaper, and draws more walks. Sullivan is better defensively, but not clearly better otherwise. Thing is, we probably WILL trade Sully at some point, which will make this loss of Salazar all the more head-scratching.

I know, it's not the end of the world, and getting upset over this is like getting mad at Francis being suspended. Maybe WE shouldn't sweat the details, but my point is that MAYBE the front office and Hurdle SHOULD!

BigRapidsJackass · March 29th, 2007, 07:49 AM

My dream comes true! Either that, or my voodoo doll still works.

Ringolsby this morning suggests that Martin will be DL'd, apparently suffering from a phantom "twinge" in his shoulder [read: "he's pitching like crap."]

That should make room for Ramirez, Corpas, and BK.

Now I'll get to work on that Josh Fogg voodoo doll, the one with the mutton chop sideburns.

Dante Bichette · March 29th, 2007, 07:15 PM

I am okay with any move that keeps Martin off of the oppening day roster. What a wasteful signing by O'Dowd. Bigger budget teams can afford these kind of gaffes, but for a team with a payroll like the Rocks even 800,000 wasted is a big deal.

Add the money spent on Martin, Latroy Hawkins (who is a solid player but we clearly overpaid for), and Fogg and we could have had an extra 8 million or so for this year. Not to mention the trade for Rodrigo Lopez. Isn't he making like 4 million? Did the Orioles pick some of that up? Either way, when you add him to the list of wasted spending we could have had at least 10 million more for the budget this year, and that is a conservative estimate on our portion of Lopez' salary. All that money could have been better spend on some real bulpen help and a legitimate starter.

BigRapidsJackass · March 29th, 2007, 09:09 PM

We're footing the full $4.5 million for Rodrigo.

Hey, Bichette ... you're onto my favorite gripe here: 4.5 + 3.5 (Hawkins) + 3.5 (Fogg) + 2.5 (Kim) = 14 million bucks!! And right now, I'd put my money on Rodrigo and Fogg getting replaced in the rotation by Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian Lawrence before we hit the All Star Break. Kim? Looks like he'll be traded with us eating part of his contract. Hawkins? I think he'll be marginally acceptable (like Mesa), but I expect guys like Corpas and Ramirez to take over the setup role.

Earlier in this thread Heltonfan suggested the right way to look at Tom Martin's contract is to consider the value of it above the minimum salary. And usually that's true. The minimum's almost $400,000, Martin makes $800,000, so that's only an additional cost of $400,000 over some rookie or non-roster signee.

But it's not true when the guy you're giving the guaranteed contract to is a considerable risk to not even make the team. And unless Martin pulls things together on this b.s. DL move and a rehab assignment, he'll be gone. So the true cost of filling that 12th pitcher slot will be: $800,000 (Martin's guaranteed salary) + $400,000 (the salary of the guy who takes his place).

In other words, O'Dowd is paying 1.2 million bucks to fill the least important role on the roster. And some guy like Mike Venafro (who just might make the Mets last I checked) is kicking around for the minimum. In the grand scheme of things it's no big deal -- a "big deal" is something like counting on Josh Fogg, Jason Hirsh, and Rodrigo Lopez to give you 90 starts and not completely kill the clubs chances doing it. But I just think the Rockies' spending priorities are sometimes just plain weird, and this Tom Martin thing is a good example of that.

hiaspire · March 30th, 2007, 05:54 PM

I'm back from Arizona and missing the warmer weather as I see snow on the ground.

Saw the Rox whip the Angels 11-1 earlier in the week, then lose to the A's in Hirsh's shelling. He didn't look quite as bad as the numbers make everyone react here, but certainly didn't get enough outs and had too many balls flying. You can see that he's got a very good arm, though, and plenty of potential if he can keep the ball in the park and replicate his minor league success at the next level. Spilborghs stood out the most of those fighting for the last roster spots (especially in the LAA game with a HR and nice grab in CF) and had the largest following in the stands rooting for him.

ROY front-runner Alex Gordon didn't disappoint. In one of the games, he blasted the ball over our heads beyond the outfield lawn seats and made a couple nice plays in the field. Also got to see a lot of the Cubs top prospects close up in morning practices, and got HOF Ryne Sandberg's autograph and a picture plus nice conversation with bonus-baby Jeff Samardzija who is a really great guy.

Glad spring is just about over now, and opening day isn't too far away. Let's play ball!

BigRapidsJackass · March 30th, 2007, 08:40 PM

Thanks, Aspire, for the report. Next spring we'll have to set you up with wireless so we can get real-time reports.

Anyone else on the Rockies (or otherwise) who made an impression on you? I hope you're right about Hirsh, cause I'm starting to get worried ...

BigRapidsJackass · March 30th, 2007, 09:28 PM

Another example of the pearls of wisdom idiots like me pay for on Baseball Prospectus. Here's Will Carroll's valuable fantasy draft advice; he seems to have found a real sleeper:

Quote:

Shawn Chacon as closer? It might happen, making him worth a late flyer or endgame dollar pick ...

BigRapidsJackass · March 31st, 2007, 05:33 PM

Just finished watching the FSN broadcast of yesterday's Ice Bowl game in Colo. Springs. FSN had Ringolsby, O'Dowd, and Geivett in the booth for about 3 innings apiece, so some interesting observations.

Ubaldo Jimenez looked fantastic. I think all 3 insiders agree that barring injury he'll be up sooner than later. Ditto Ryan Speier, who was hitting 90 on the gun. His shoulder surgery has actually resulted in improved velocity, and he just needs to get a bit sharper with his secondary pitches.

Eric DuBose also looked pretty good as a lefty reliever. I'm starting to think he's the in-house alternative to Martin & Affeldt.

Seth Smith exhibited a fine arm in RF. I guess I shouldn't be surprised given his QB background. He also stole a base and looked more athletic than I thought he was. Let's hope he hits well and hits early in the Springs; if he does, I wouldn't be shocked if Hawpe and/or Baker and/or Stewart are dealt to fill other needs. Smith is obviously the new O'Dowd/Geivett favorite, and I think any plan to move Stewart to RF to make room for him on the big club is now very unlikely in the short term.

O'Dowd says only the D'backs put in a claim on Salazar; this is consistent with there being no trade opportunities for him. O'Dowd had nice words for him, saying he was released because the club believes he deserves a chance in a less crowded AAA outfield.

Geivett talked about the 40-man roster a bit, and suggested that space will be made if any interesting names pop up on the waiver wire in the next couple days.

Geivett says Shane Lindsay is doing very well in his recovery from shoulder surgery, and the target date for his return to competitive pitching is approx. July.

Dexter Fowler is starting in Modesto, but it sure sounds like he'll be fast-tracked to Tulsa barring a poor start. Nix will start at 2B over Quintanilla, although Quintanilla certainly made a better impression this spring. Chaz Rowe will also start in Modesto.

Drew Goodman says Chris Nelson looked much improved this spring, much more comfortable at the plate. Geivett seconded this.

All told, it was good to watch, as it drives home the point that the second wave of prospects is pushing hard against the first wave. Salazar was dumped not only because the AAA OF is full, but also because Fowler may very well be in AAA as soon as next year. Barmes showed he can handle MLB SS defensively, but now Herrera is getting close to pushing him completely out of the picture. Things like this are fine developments, and they tell us that a few housecleaning trades are very likely in the upcoming year. Right now, the best thing guys like Barmes and Sullivan and Stewart can do is to hit and increase their trade value. If they do, they'll be gone (and I hope a useful MLB player or a younger prospect comes in return) in short order.

March 28th, 2007, 06:48 PM	#32 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	First, I'll play devil's advocate: Salazar is 26, hasn't put up particularly good numbers at any level since A ball, has an injury history of the type that may repeat, and was passed on the depth chart by Spilborghs and Sullivan. The Sky Sox will already have Sullivan, Spilborghs, Barker (although he's really a non-prospect), Seth Smith, and Matt Miller to play OF. And then there's the chance that Stewart will be moved to the OF as soon as this year since he's going to be blocked by Atkins for the forseeable future. So: big deal. But here's what I don't get: Salazar has options, and clearly has talent. So he goes back down to AA for a while. If he dominates, he's got trade value, or he comes back up. If Sullivan gets traded, there's room for him immediately. He's clearly still a better prospect than guys like Miller (a one-dimensional "hits" but not particularly "hits with power" corner outfielder) and Barker (who really doesn't do anything particularly well from what I've seen). So why the rush to clear roster space by exposing him to waivers? Who's the obvious guy to go from the 40-man to make room? Well, first (as Wolf says), Steve Finley. He's already following the roadmap I laid out for him, only at a more accelerated pace: he started hot in spring training as pitchers worked up to regular season velocity and command, and he tailed off at the end. Expect more of the same in the regular season. Who else? Tom Martin. Yes, he may very well be useful this year. But there'll be about a dozen Tom Martin types released by other clubs in the next few days. He is the definition of "freely available talent." Alexis Gomez is on the 40-man, and I don't see any upside there. And so is Jayson Nix, who really, really hasn't shown anything and who also seems to have no place in the Springs since Barmes and Quintanilla should really get the starts at SS and 2B. Finally, Darren Clarke: he's big, he throws hard. He's also 26 years old, hurt again, and has never pitched above A ball. Again, there'll be a dozen Darren Clarkes passed through waivers in the next week or so. So I just don't understand it. And I think there's a good chance you'll see Salazar in a Dbacks uniform before September. I just hope he hasn't saved his breakout for Arizona. EDIT: by the way, Tom Martin's line today: 2 outs recorded, 2HR and 1 BB allowed. And yeah, he's heading north with the club on Friday. Can't he at least fake arm trouble or something so he can be DL'd and take a rehab assignment? The way he's going Hurdle can't use him for anything but mop-up work, and with early season off days in the schedule there really shouldn't be any need for a 12th pitcher until mid-April anyway. But Hurdle loves that 12 man staff ... Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; March 28th, 2007 at 06:53 PM.

March 28th, 2007, 08:56 PM	#33 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	Jackass, the obvious move for the Rockies to make in light of keeping Finley is to trade Sullivan and his $900k salary. Salazar is younger, cheaper, and draws more walks. Sullivan is better defensively, but not clearly better otherwise. Thing is, we probably WILL trade Sully at some point, which will make this loss of Salazar all the more head-scratching. I know, it's not the end of the world, and getting upset over this is like getting mad at Francis being suspended. Maybe WE shouldn't sweat the details, but my point is that MAYBE the front office and Hurdle SHOULD!

March 29th, 2007, 07:49 AM	#34 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	My dream comes true! Either that, or my voodoo doll still works. Ringolsby this morning suggests that Martin will be DL'd, apparently suffering from a phantom "twinge" in his shoulder [read: "he's pitching like crap."] That should make room for Ramirez, Corpas, and BK. Now I'll get to work on that Josh Fogg voodoo doll, the one with the mutton chop sideburns.

March 29th, 2007, 07:15 PM	#35 (permalink)
Dante Bichette Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 272	I am okay with any move that keeps Martin off of the oppening day roster. What a wasteful signing by O'Dowd. Bigger budget teams can afford these kind of gaffes, but for a team with a payroll like the Rocks even 800,000 wasted is a big deal. Add the money spent on Martin, Latroy Hawkins (who is a solid player but we clearly overpaid for), and Fogg and we could have had an extra 8 million or so for this year. Not to mention the trade for Rodrigo Lopez. Isn't he making like 4 million? Did the Orioles pick some of that up? Either way, when you add him to the list of wasted spending we could have had at least 10 million more for the budget this year, and that is a conservative estimate on our portion of Lopez' salary. All that money could have been better spend on some real bulpen help and a legitimate starter.

March 29th, 2007, 09:09 PM	#36 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	We're footing the full $4.5 million for Rodrigo. Hey, Bichette ... you're onto my favorite gripe here: 4.5 + 3.5 (Hawkins) + 3.5 (Fogg) + 2.5 (Kim) = 14 million bucks!! And right now, I'd put my money on Rodrigo and Fogg getting replaced in the rotation by Ubaldo Jimenez and Brian Lawrence before we hit the All Star Break. Kim? Looks like he'll be traded with us eating part of his contract. Hawkins? I think he'll be marginally acceptable (like Mesa), but I expect guys like Corpas and Ramirez to take over the setup role. Earlier in this thread Heltonfan suggested the right way to look at Tom Martin's contract is to consider the value of it above the minimum salary. And usually that's true. The minimum's almost $400,000, Martin makes $800,000, so that's only an additional cost of $400,000 over some rookie or non-roster signee. But it's not true when the guy you're giving the guaranteed contract to is a considerable risk to not even make the team. And unless Martin pulls things together on this b.s. DL move and a rehab assignment, he'll be gone. So the true cost of filling that 12th pitcher slot will be: $800,000 (Martin's guaranteed salary) + $400,000 (the salary of the guy who takes his place). In other words, O'Dowd is paying 1.2 million bucks to fill the least important role on the roster. And some guy like Mike Venafro (who just might make the Mets last I checked) is kicking around for the minimum. In the grand scheme of things it's no big deal -- a "big deal" is something like counting on Josh Fogg, Jason Hirsh, and Rodrigo Lopez to give you 90 starts and not completely kill the clubs chances doing it. But I just think the Rockies' spending priorities are sometimes just plain weird, and this Tom Martin thing is a good example of that.

March 30th, 2007, 05:54 PM	#37 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 481	I'm back from Arizona and missing the warmer weather as I see snow on the ground. Saw the Rox whip the Angels 11-1 earlier in the week, then lose to the A's in Hirsh's shelling. He didn't look quite as bad as the numbers make everyone react here, but certainly didn't get enough outs and had too many balls flying. You can see that he's got a very good arm, though, and plenty of potential if he can keep the ball in the park and replicate his minor league success at the next level. Spilborghs stood out the most of those fighting for the last roster spots (especially in the LAA game with a HR and nice grab in CF) and had the largest following in the stands rooting for him. ROY front-runner Alex Gordon didn't disappoint. In one of the games, he blasted the ball over our heads beyond the outfield lawn seats and made a couple nice plays in the field. Also got to see a lot of the Cubs top prospects close up in morning practices, and got HOF Ryne Sandberg's autograph and a picture plus nice conversation with bonus-baby Jeff Samardzija who is a really great guy. Glad spring is just about over now, and opening day isn't too far away. Let's play ball!

March 30th, 2007, 08:40 PM	#38 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Thanks, Aspire, for the report. Next spring we'll have to set you up with wireless so we can get real-time reports. Anyone else on the Rockies (or otherwise) who made an impression on you? I hope you're right about Hirsh, cause I'm starting to get worried ...

March 31st, 2007, 05:33 PM	#40 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Just finished watching the FSN broadcast of yesterday's Ice Bowl game in Colo. Springs. FSN had Ringolsby, O'Dowd, and Geivett in the booth for about 3 innings apiece, so some interesting observations. Ubaldo Jimenez looked fantastic. I think all 3 insiders agree that barring injury he'll be up sooner than later. Ditto Ryan Speier, who was hitting 90 on the gun. His shoulder surgery has actually resulted in improved velocity, and he just needs to get a bit sharper with his secondary pitches. Eric DuBose also looked pretty good as a lefty reliever. I'm starting to think he's the in-house alternative to Martin & Affeldt. Seth Smith exhibited a fine arm in RF. I guess I shouldn't be surprised given his QB background. He also stole a base and looked more athletic than I thought he was. Let's hope he hits well and hits early in the Springs; if he does, I wouldn't be shocked if Hawpe and/or Baker and/or Stewart are dealt to fill other needs. Smith is obviously the new O'Dowd/Geivett favorite, and I think any plan to move Stewart to RF to make room for him on the big club is now very unlikely in the short term. O'Dowd says only the D'backs put in a claim on Salazar; this is consistent with there being no trade opportunities for him. O'Dowd had nice words for him, saying he was released because the club believes he deserves a chance in a less crowded AAA outfield. Geivett talked about the 40-man roster a bit, and suggested that space will be made if any interesting names pop up on the waiver wire in the next couple days. Geivett says Shane Lindsay is doing very well in his recovery from shoulder surgery, and the target date for his return to competitive pitching is approx. July. Dexter Fowler is starting in Modesto, but it sure sounds like he'll be fast-tracked to Tulsa barring a poor start. Nix will start at 2B over Quintanilla, although Quintanilla certainly made a better impression this spring. Chaz Rowe will also start in Modesto. Drew Goodman says Chris Nelson looked much improved this spring, much more comfortable at the plate. Geivett seconded this. All told, it was good to watch, as it drives home the point that the second wave of prospects is pushing hard against the first wave. Salazar was dumped not only because the AAA OF is full, but also because Fowler may very well be in AAA as soon as next year. Barmes showed he can handle MLB SS defensively, but now Herrera is getting close to pushing him completely out of the picture. Things like this are fine developments, and they tell us that a few housecleaning trades are very likely in the upcoming year. Right now, the best thing guys like Barmes and Sullivan and Stewart can do is to hit and increase their trade value. If they do, they'll be gone (and I hope a useful MLB player or a younger prospect comes in return) in short order.