Spring Training Thread

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by HoyaRoxFan

I don't know if I'm ready to be worried about the bullpen just yet, thanks to the presence of Barmes, Kim, Sullivan(?). Yes, it looks weak now, but if these three are soon headed out the door in trades, what else would you expect DO'D to be getting back other than relievers? (Certainly not blue-chip prospects)

One would hope, anyway. My concern is that we keep Barmes in hopes that he can be our 2nd baseman in a year after he re-establishes himself in AAA as a hitter, and that we trade Kim and Sullivan for A and AA prospects.

If DOD doesn't address our weak spot with trades before the season starts, and we get off to a lousy start due to the bullpen we have blowing several leads, a-la 2005, then I think he may be in deep doo-doo.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Jackass, you are reflecting what I said earlier on, namely that our bullpen is our sore spot.

I agreed with you before about the bullpen's significance and the ability for that group to greatly impact the W/L record of this team. Because team success and bullpen strength have been so correlated in our franchise history, close attention needs to be paid to their strengths in that area especially.

I don't share the same concerns about this being a real weakness, though. Relievers are harder to predict each season than just about anyone with their smaller magnified sample sizes and ability to build or destroy confidence/momentum quickly in critical situations, so things certainly could blow up in their faces and possibly send the season into a tailspin as some expect. But I personally think they've got a pretty good mix of veteran experience and raw pure young talent in the pen, and that this group is more likely to over-achieve rather than fail miserably. By mid-season we could have something somewhat similiar to Detroit's young fireball relief core to power this team. There is a possibility the pen could be really good IMO if the veterans are decent and a couple youngsters make their way into contributing roles with great stuff. We could have some amazing talent in this pen before the season is over.

I think Hawkins will be better than most expect if using the Mesa comparisons, and if so with Fuentes being solid to close out games all you really need is someone to step up into the 7th inning spot to provide a reliable core group to turn to when ahead late (in which I think we have plenty of candidates to do that). Hawkins is probably the key, though, unless they get another big surprise from a youngster taking on a critical role instead eventually.

Whether the team lives up to the hopes for a competitive winning team this year will probably depend mostly upon whether or not they can win those close games late with a strong bullpen that doesn't turn too many potential wins into heartbreaking losses.

[Roxpert]

I will say this, HiAspire: A year ago, none of us had any knowledge about either Corpas OR Ramirez, so you're correct in the sense that surprises happen to bullpens most seasons. The question is, "Can we find lightning in a bottle two years in a row?" It seems a bit of a stretch to hope for the emergence of two more good young relievers out of nowhere, so that's why I think it's more likely that we may see more of a bullpen "implosion" this season than we saw last year. Again, I think 2005 is the analogue of what we start with in 2007 (in terms of effectiveness, not age), unless DOD can trade for bullpen help before the season begins.

I do hold out some hope that the help may come internally from among a group that includes Morillo, Speier, Jimenez, Bautista, etc. But by the time any of them are up here to help, it may already be July and we may already be well out of a playoff spot.

[hiaspire]

Fair enough, but I don't think it would be out of nowhere or quite like needing to find lightning in a bottle.

These are real quality pitching prospects that most every Rockies fan knows who are likely to find their way to some MLB time this year IMO. If the team is playing .500 baseball and somewhat within reach of playoff hope, I think you might see a couple of our very brightest young talents get a shot with the big club to see if they can't help now - and probably in the bullpen to start for most of the hard throwers if the rotation remains full. They'll probably get a shot anyway eventually even if we are far out of the race. We'll see some of that hyped talent on the mound this year.

I believe the veterans will be sufficient to start the season, and one-by-one a youngster could step up and take their place as the season goes along if they prove themselves worthy.

By season's end, I think/hope that we could be saying that this might be the most pure talent that we maybe have ever had on the staff. Hopefully it isn't just potential and a couple of those young power arms make a difference -- and we could maybe surprise a little like another young team last year that relied upon some young relievers themselves to reach the next level.

[Roxpert]

That would be a best-case scenario you're describing, HiAspire (absent a trade for impact arm(s)). I simply wouldn't go into the season EXPECTING it. We have found pleasant surprises many times in the past, but have still had struggling bullpens many times as well. The "Senator" (Alan Simpson) came up in a season in which the bullpen wasn't all that great. We have had others such as Javy Lopez, Scott Dohmann, David Lee, etc. who have all had their moments, but we've also had bullpen implosions throughout those times (the Todd Jones collapse, Gabe White's second year with us, etc.).

So on balance, I think we get a bit less out of our bullpen this season than we did last year. We also will likely have a few more health issues with the rotation this season, which is hard to avoid given our outstanding rotation health last year. This means that some bullpen members may be called upon to start (Buchholz, Affeldt), which further weakens and challenges the 'pen.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

That would be a best-case scenario you're describing, HiAspire (absent a trade for impact arm(s)). I simply wouldn't go into the season EXPECTING it.

Just depends upon each fan's perspective, whether they are expecting the worst or expecting something better than before. I'm seeing more reasons for optimism this spring than others in the recent past.

Fans here seem to be coming around positively to Taveras for another example of that. I don't think someone mathematically would "expect" more positive expectations of him surprising here, but he's gaining momentum amongst fans who now do expect him to be better than they thought originally it seems.

Expectations are rising, and they will continue to do so after we see more of the young arms in the bullpen solidify that unit's firepower to go along with their added veteran experience.

[HoyaRoxFan]

I think you're right, Roxpert, on many points here, but let's synergize a couple of ideas:

1. LaTroy Hawkins is this year's Jose Mesa. Okay, then we have at least one setup man to get us through those late innings to Fuentes for the first few months. Hurdle will undoubtedly overuse him and misuse him early in the year, and he'll start faltering by about July.

2. At least one or two of the folks in our bullpen will be unmitigated disasters. Viable candidates - Jeremy Affeldt, Tom Martin, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Gallo?

3. Someone in our starting rotation misses time.

4. Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian Lawrence (I think I heard extended spring training is a possibility?), Denny Bautista, and maybe Juan Morillo will be called upon to help some part of the pitching staff this year at some point, as you say.

5. The trick is to get through the spring. Look at the schedule. The tougher months come early. This schedule looks similar to 2005. If we can just get into July without torpedoing ourselves, then we can look at moving folks for further help, if necessary, just as the schedule gets to its easiest stretches.

So how do we get through the spring? Well, we've got Fuentes, Hawkins, Corpas, getting us through the good days and, say, Buchholz getting us through the long days. Of our four viable candidates for unmitigated disaster, it's probably safe to assume that at least one or two of them won't be as bad as we expect.

So if we have a 6 or 7 man bullpen, really we're hoping that of those 4 guys plus the 4 candidates to get called up, 2-3 of them don't turn out to be disasters and can therefore fill out the roster. I don't think that's really a bad place to be. Don't get me wrong though, it would still be nice if some of our spare parts could be flipped out for another quality reliever or two... but I don't know that it's as safe an assumption as it was in 2005 to imagine that the back end of our rotation AND our entire bullpen will collapse at the same time. After all, that's what the humidor is all about.

[Dante Bichette]

I am sick and tired of Tom Martin. I don't see what Hurdle and O'Dowd see in that guy.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Watching some of the last couple ST games, Jamey Carroll's seen some action at SS.

This guy played a superb 2B last year, and my impression is that he's also an excellent defensive SS. I think he's the guy they turn to if Tulo struggles.

[Roxpert]

This is from Rotoworld this morning....

Javier Lopez-R-Red Sox Mar. 27 - 12:45 pm et


Javier Lopez was told he's made the Red Sox, settling the final spot on the team's 25-man roster.

Lopez, who allowed one run in 9 2/3 innings, will be the third lefty in the bullpen, leaving no room for Manny Delcarmen. It could be a short stay, though, as the Red Sox are hoping to get Mike Timlin back a week into April.

Hmmm. We have Tom Martin, and the Red Sox have Javier Lopez (who has stunk since his first year with us, but at least has more skills against lefties). Interestingly, Lopez seems to have bumped Manny Delcarmen to the minors. He's one of the guys we wanted if we were to close the Helton trade.

Lopez will probably be lousy for Boston, but he has done well this spring, especially compared to Martin.

On another note, word is that Mark Sweeney won't be on the Giants roster, and this makes me wonder if we'd be better off with him as a pinch hitter than Mabry. I think I'd prefer Sweeney's bat, but he said something disparaging about the Rockies in that Nightengale story last summer, so we can forget about him.

Finally, Rick Bauer was designated for assignment by Texas. I think I may have known his father in college, so I hope that someday he gets a shot with the Rox.

[indianadrew]

wow what hapened to fogg today. he lit up the bat today

[BigRapidsJackass]

I don't think you'll ever see a pitching line worse than Fogg's today:

3.2 IP 13 H 11 R 10 ER 3 BB 2 K 4 HR 1 HBP

Let's put that another way:

He retired a total of 11 batters. He allowed 17 batters to reach safely (or to hit it out of the park, including 3 HRs by Scott Hairston in 4 innings).

BK pitched next and had a chance to prove Hurdle wrong. He didn't exactly dominate, but I'll take his line anyday over Fogg's.

[GerryInCS]

Well the only worse stat line is the Texas Ranger pitcher who gave up 7 runs in 1/3 of an inning yesterday to Padres.

[wolf213]

Let me say there have been some horrible developments coming late this spring:

Salazar was claimed by the D-backs. It makes no since why exposed Salazar to be claimed, while scrubs like Mabry and Finley are sure to make the team. Finley started strong but is now hitting .267 and that number is falling fast. While Salazar isn't much more then a fringe player, he still is young and has more upside.

The Fogg v. Kim discussion has been beaten to death, however it looks like because of that choice, Rami will start the year in AAA, while Martin who has done nothing this team to even earn a spot on a t-ball team, will have slot in the bullpen. I say we make a motion to call Martin "The Gas" for the rest of the season. Why Gas? Because, instead of trying to stop the fire, he just makes it 10 times worse.

[GoldGlove]

Martin is a joke. The guy has given up homers like they're going out of style this Spring. What are opponents batting off him after today's outing, .600? He's going to ruin a lot of games out of the bullpen.