2007 Season Predictions

[wolf213]

I see that the spring training thread is turning into the season prediction thread so I figured I would seperate the two out.



Here are my predictions, they are basic for now, I might expand a bit later on them.

1. Taveres .300/.345/.370 - 45SB
2. Kaz Mat .270/.345/.400 - 30 SB
3. Atkins .320/.400/.510
4. Holliday .290/.350/.535
5. Helton .330/.420/.520
6. Hawpe .280/.375/.500
7. Tulo .300/.375/.400
8. Ianetta .280/.350/.400

1. Cook 3.75, 1.20
2. Francis 3.80 1.30
3. Lopez 4.90 1.45
4. Kim 5.05 1.50
5. Hirsh 4.80 1.45

Record 82-80


For the divison

1. Padres
2. Dodgers
3. Rockies
4. D-Backs
5. Giants

[Heltonfan]

Rather than re-posting all of my individual player projections, I'll just refer everyone to the spreadsheet.

Projected Standings:

NYM 86-76
PHI 85-77
ATL 84-78
FLA 74-88
WSH 71-91

STL 84-78
CHC 83-79
MIL 80-82
HOU 79-83
PIT 77-85
CIN 73-89

SD 92-70
LAD 86-76
ARI 83-79
SF 79-83
COL 78-84

NYY 91-71
BOS 89-73
TOR 81-81
BAL 76-86
TB 73-89

CLE 88-74
MIN 85-77
DET 84-78
CWS 73-89
KC 71-91

LAA 85-77
OAK 84-78
TEX 78-84
SEA 77-85

[bedir than average]

You really expect only two teams to win more than 90 games?

[BigRapidsJackass]

Thanks, HF. Only Cincy, Washington, and the Marlins come out with fewer wins than us in the NL ...

... by the way, when you run these projections is it a pure RS/RA pythagorean thing, or does it take into account the unbalanced schedule and strength of opponents?

I just perused the spreadsheet. Do you have a link to one for pitchers, too? Here's one I like:

Evan Longoria: .254
Jamey Carroll: .249
Kaz Matsui: .234

Oops, looks like we missed another opportunity ...

Aspire: time to jump right in! Plenty of stuff to get you fired up here:

Troy Glaus: .294
Ross Gload: .289
Ryan Shealy: .267
Paul LoDuca: .258
Chris Iannetta: .260

[Heltonfan]

You really expect only two teams to win more than 90 games?

Of course not. The actual range of team wins and losses will always be larger than the projected range, because of the impact of situational/Pythag luck. But for any given team, the projection I list is what I would consider the "correct" over/under.

by the way, when you run these projections is it a pure RS/RA pythagorean thing, or does it take into account the unbalanced schedule and strength of opponents?

Pure RS/RA. Although, now that you mention it, it shouldn't be that hard to incorporate the unbalanced schedule (at least within the league; interleague play would be a real pain to factor in). I'll see what I can do (although the changes would be very minimal; no team would gain or lose more than one game in the projected standings).

The pitching projections are available through that same link; at the top of the page, there's a link labeled, of all things, "Pitchers". Enjoy.

[BigRapidsJackass]

there's a link labeled, of all things, "Pitchers"

Smartass.



I didn't lose any respect for you when you were outed as a "kid," but I still haven't come to terms with that ASU thing ...

[Roxpert]

Too early for me, since I haven't simmed the season yet except for the ZIPS projection disk (which I don't put a lot of weight on). So the following is subject to being edited in the next month.....

1. Tavarez - .300/.355/.380, 40 steals in 55 attempts
2. Matsui - .279/.340/.430, reaches double digit homers for 1st time in MLB
3. Atkins - .325/.420/.580, 25 homers, and 60 doubles.
4. Holliday - .301/.359/.520, only 450 ABs after starting season on DL.
5. Helton - .320/.427/.530, reaching 20 HRs and 100 RBIs.
6. Hawpe - .300/.390/.545, 30 homers in only 480 ABs (Baker platoons)
7. Iannetta - .265/.375/.425, starts only 85 games thanks to Clint.
8. Tulo - .246/.339/.440, showing HR pop with 18 dingers

1. Cook - 14-10, 3.90 ERA in 215 innings
2. Francis - 15-13, 4.45 ERA in 220 innings
3. Lopez - 13-16, 5.10 ERA in 196 innings
4. Hirsh - 8-15, 4.85 ERA in 178 innings
5. Combined - 7-20, 5.75 ERA in 160 innings (Fogg, Bucholtz, Jimenez, etc.)

Record of 73-89

NL West
1. San Diego 87-75
2. Los Angeles 86-76
3. Arizona 81-81
4. Colorado 73-89
5. San Francisco 71-91

Hurdle is fired the week following the regular season, replaced by Vinny Castilla.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, with those predictions -- you have everyone but Holliday improving on their '06 season, some by a very large margin -- I don't see how this club could only win 73 games.

I hope you're right!

[BigRapidsJackass]

FWIW, let me give my capsule summaries of what I think will happen for some key players:

-- Tavares: OBP of .340, about 50/70 in SB
-- Holliday falls back to earth a bit. Expect 35-40 HR but a lower BA/OPS
-- Atkins is for real. I think Roxpert's 1.000 OPS is on the money, but I'd guess 30 HRs
-- Helton bounces back a bit in average and doubles, but HRs stay around 17
-- Iannetta puts up a .370 OBP
-- Torrealba's shoulder limits him to about 40 games
-- Hawpe? I think Roxpert is right again. If he platoons, his OPS will be in the .920-.950 range. Lower if he has to face lefties regularly.
-- Tulo: I think Roxpert's way high here. I think he nails down the starting SS job by the ASB (Barmes gets the nod to start the season), exhibiting excellent defense, but Tulo's hitting comes around slowly: .230/.280/.410
-- Javy Lopez sticks due to Yorvit's shoulder and he hits pretty well but is awful at controlling opponents' running
-- Carroll falls back a bit but still posts a .370 OPS and outperforms KazMat (however, a roughly 50/50 Kaz/Carroll split at 2B gives the Rox reasonably good production and better than average defense there)
-- Hirsh is a surprise and finishes with better numbers than Jennings
-- Buchholz is a surprise and nails down the 5th starter role
-- Roxpert's got Rodrigo about right
-- Francis vaults ahead of Cook; no knock on Cook, however, as he manages to get that K rate up just a little bit and has a strong year
-- Kim & Fogg both struggle mightily until better options replace them; Lawrence contributes nicely in a couple spurts but spends major time on the DL with a tired arm (but no major arm trouble)
-- Oscar Rivera finds a role on the big club by midseason
-- LaTroy Hawkins struggles and is relegated to 6th/7th inning work by the ASB
-- Corpas takes over the setup role and performs well
-- Affeldt is an effective LOOGY but inspires dread when he is used in any other situation
-- Tom Martin is weirdly effective and moves up in the bullpen pecking order
-- Ramirez bombs and goes back to AAA; Denny Bautista is better but can't stay healthy all year
-- Fuentes is the same old Fuentes
-- Danny Graves sticks and is horrible; alternatively, Matt Herges sticks and is an marginally acceptable 12th pitcher on a 12-man staff
-- Steve Finley sticks, puts up a .700 OPS, and plays too much
-- Ubaldo Jimenez starts off his MLB career in the pen and is '07's version of Ramon Ramirez, giving the club a boost in June.
-- Jeff Baker is a pleasant surprise (kind of a Holliday '04) and makes Hawpe tradeable
-- Cory Sullivan is traded; Spilborghs is DFA'd; both catch on with other clubs and play better than Finley and Tavares

I'm not ready to predict wins, but I'll take the over in Vegas.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Roxpert, with those predictions -- you have everyone but Holliday improving on their '06 season, some by a very large margin -- I don't see how this club could only win 73 games.

I hope you're right!

Jackass, we will have a very disappointing bullpen and real problems winning with the 4th and 5th starters. More runs scored, even more runs allowed, and an actual record that is (once again) several games worse than our Pythagorean record. Add up the cumulative record of the 5 starters. I know it seems weird given the offensive numbers I showed, and Francis/Cook/Lopez are solid, but the rest will be a disaster.

That's how they only win 73.


Addendum: Why am I so bearish on the 'pen? Fuentes will be Fuentes, but he will be doing that for another team sometime in July. Corpas and Ramirez will collapse from their strong rookie years. Hawkins will be a relative bust. Martin/Affledt will be next to worthless. All in all, the bullpen ERA will approach 6.00 (excluding Fuentes).

[Heltonfan]

Roxpert, your numbers don't add up. At least, I don't see how they could. I ran some quick calculations:

Using Runs Created = OBP*SLG*AB, figuring that the eight regulars will combine for 4400 AB, and figuring that the bench/pitchers will combine for 1100 AB at a .225 OBP/.225 SLG clip (note the extreme pessimism there), I get a team total of 857 runs scored.

For the pitchers, assuming a 5.60 bullpen ERA (you said "approaching 6.00 excluding Fuentes, so...), and assuming the league average of .06 unearned runs allowed for every earned run, I get 864 RA. That's an 80-win Pythag team. I know we've discussed this many times before, but if you think any manager can be expected to cost his team 7 games compared to Pythag, you're off your rocker. Even Hurdle himself has "topped out" at a 5-game differential; it doesn't make sense to predict anything more extreme than a 3-game swing in this regard.

Edit: and I should also point out that projecting the bullpen, as a whole, to be well below replacement level seems more than a little bit nuts. Our collection of bullpen talent certainly leaves quite a bit to be desired, but it's far from being the league's worst.

73 wins is well within reason, but not the way you've described it.

[hiaspire]

I'm liking the relative Taveras love so far... think we should have heard more of that on his acquisition. If he hits around .300 or better and leads the league in steals, he'll make lots of new fans in the stands and will soon become a crowd favorite and important part of the young core going forward.

[rockieprogress]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Hurdle is fired the week following the regular season, replaced by Vinny Castilla.

Now this is something I can agree with, although I would rather it happen at the break.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Using Runs Created = OBP*SLG*AB, figuring that the eight regulars will combine for 4400 AB, and figuring that the bench/pitchers will combine for 1100 AB at a .225 OBP/.225 SLG clip (note the extreme pessimism there), I get a team total of 857 runs scored.

Of course, I didn't provide much in terms of playing time projections. Tavarez will probably only start 130 games, with his replacements doing considerably worse. Hurdle will start Carroll at least 50 times at 2nd base, and his OPS will be less than .700. Tulo will share time with an ineffective Barmes, etc. In all, the bench/pitchers should get somewhat more than 1,100 ABs.

For the pitchers, assuming a 5.60 bullpen ERA (you said "approaching 6.00 excluding Fuentes, so...), and assuming the league average of .06 unearned runs allowed for every earned run, I get 864 RA. That's an 80-win Pythag team.

I think Fuentes will have an ERA around 4.00 for 32 innings with the Rox, and then be traded. The rest of the Bullpen will be at 5.90+, so I'd use 5.80 overall, not 5.60. We don't have nearly a league-worst bullpen, but Coors will play more like the "old Coors" in 2007 (I expect around 12.0 to 12.5 runs per game, offsetting the outlier result from 2006).

I know we've discussed this many times before, but if you think any manager can be expected to cost his team 7 games compared to Pythag, you're off your rocker.

Oh, really? Look at Buddy Bell here.....2001 Colorado Rockies Statistics and Roster - Baseball-Reference.com

His team was 9 games below Pythag. My assumptions probably result in a 78 Pthag. wins (though I haven't cranked the numbers as you've done here), versus your 80, and I assume Clint can manage to do 5 games worse than that, which he did before here.....
2004 Colorado Rockies Statistics and Roster - Baseball-Reference.com

and here....

2006 Colorado Rockies Statistics and Roster - Baseball-Reference.com

In addition, Clint had two other years where he was 4 and 3 games below Pythag.

I am a lot of things, Heltonfan, but I don't think I'm "nuts" or "off my rocker" when predicting anything bearish with Clint's Rox.

[Heltonfan]

Oh, really? Look at Buddy Bell here...

I didn't say no manager could cost his team 7 games. I said no manager could be expected to cost his team 7 games. That's a crucial difference. It's not a question of possibility, it's a question of likelihood. I'm not saying that your scenario is impossible, but I don't see how we could deem it the most likely outcome (which is what a prediction is supposed to be, after all).