2007 Season Predictions

[BigRapidsJackass]

Nice stuff, Roxpert and IncredibleRox.

And IR, I appreciate you sticking your neck out and making some predictions beyond just what the spreadsheets show.

Here's a few interesting links dealing with Rockies players and my take on them:

The Baseball Analysts: Bat Out of Helton

Todd Helton's opposite field HR power disappeared last year. A combination of the humidor, injury/illness, and age I would imagine.

My take: it ain't comin' back. I predict under 20 HRs -- let's call it 19 -- but with something of a rebound otherwise. .410 OBP, .520 SLG

BASEBALL NOTEBOOK BLOG: Kazmir, Francis and Helton

Jeff Francis' velocity was down last year. Yet he was better (at least superficially so; a large part of the improvement was BABIP driven). The link above sees the drop in velocity as a harbinger of doom. I don't. Another guy who seems to have knocked a few mph off his average fastball and paradoxically had his best year last year? Jason Jennings. JJ and Francis both seemed to gain more in movement and control than they lost in velocity. I look for Francis to have a very good season.

Baseball Prospectus | Articles | Positional Health Reports: Closers

Non-subscribers, I'll give you the key Fuentes facts from Will Carroll's "Positional Health Report" on closers:

How is it that a closer in Colorado gets a blue? He just takes the ball, and while he doesn’t have overpowering stuff or even a plus breaking ball, he just goes out there and essentially plays the odds. His slider works on lefties, and he’ll spot his stuff against righties. When people say a closer isn’t special, Fuentes is proof that being present is more than halfway there.

I don't know where to begin with this. It is wrong in about as many ways as a 4-sentence write-up can be wrong. Fuentes' stuff is uniformly described as "filthy." His slider is tremendous. Sometimes the break is so huge he just doesn't know where it's going and can't keep it in the zone. Has Carroll ever even seen Fuentes pitch? Not even in the All Star Game? And once we're past that, how is it that a guy with chronic back trouble gets Carroll's rare "blue" injury risk rating? I am actually paying money to subscribe to get this crap. Anyone reading Rotoworld and looking at his stat line would produce a better summary of Fuentes as a closer. And that's what I'm going to start doing next month. Expect Fuentes to have a very fine season as a closer again, but expect him to miss a bit of time (but not too much) with back problems.

Billy Beane: watch what a hitter does in the second half of his second season (I can't find the quote).

Matt Holliday's 2nd half/2nd season: .925 OPS
Matt Holliday's full 3rd season: .973 OPS
Matt Holliday's 4th season: somewhere in between the two numbers. 40 HR seasons are rare enough (again) that it's foolhardy to predict them. So I predict 39 HRs.

Garrett Atkins' 2nd half/2nd season: 1.062 OPS
Garret Atkins' 3rd season: a 1.000+ OPS. With 30 HRs. He's for real.

Brad Hawpe's 2nd half/2nd season: .820 OPS
Brad Hawpe's 3rd season: Expect a modest improvement. In fact, with limited action against LHP I'd expect an .880 OPS or so (he had a .900+ OPS against RHP overall last year) with 25 HRs. But he doesn't fit the Beane Rule of Breakouts.

The Soul of Baseball: Willie Wilson: Fastest ever?

Miguel Dilone was fast. In 1980 he hit .348 despite never hitting a ball more than 100 feet in the air, and he stole 61 bases. In 1982, though, he hit a solo home run off of La Marr Hoyt, his first home run in two seasons, and at that point he started swinging harder than Sinatra in Vegas. He hit about .109 the rest of his career. But I'm getting away from the point. He really was fast

Reports last week were that Willy Tavares was trying to increase his strength and get his weight up to 185. He was previously listed at 165. I've always thought this is one reason basestealers peak so early. They always want to be line drive hitters, and coaches encourage it. They get a bit bigger, a bit slower, a bit older, and lose the one skill that got them to the big leagues. Willy, Miguel Dilone is waiting for your call ...

Others:

I fear IR is correct about Rodrigo Lopez. And I agree that BK just has a way of working himself into his manager's doghouse regardless of who the manager is; expect him to leave the way he came, in a "we'll take your problem player off your hands if you'll take our problem player off ours" deal.

Hawkins '07 = Mesa '06 is also right on. And Corpas starts in AAA is what I'm afraid of. By the way, I hope the Affeldt trade thing is correct. The guy still looks like a rookie out there after 6 years in MLB and at the age of 28. I'm a little more bullish on Hirsh than IR; I expect him to figure things out very quickly.

And yes, I expect Iannetta to start in AAA, too, for no apparent reason.

[Heltonfan]

He just takes the ball, and while he doesn’t have overpowering stuff or even a plus breaking ball, he just goes out there and essentially plays the odds. His slider works on lefties, and he’ll spot his stuff against righties.

This is beautiful in its awfulness. Fuentes = Jamie Moyer? I love it. Next year, Carroll will be giving Ubaldo Jimenez a green light, describing him as "Maddux-like."

Which brings me to the few players about whom my projection system and I disagree:

- Hirsh will lose his rotation spot in early June. The more I look at him, the more afraid I am that he's the new Scott Elarton. He had a lot of success in the minors, but much of it was BABIP-driven. He doesn't have great stuff; his K rate was above AAA average last year, but nothing particularly impressive. His control was a bit below average even by AAA standards, and was a real problem in his short, painful stint in the big leagues. He doesn't keep the ball down; he managed to allow just 5 HR in 137 IP in AAA last year, with a subpar G/F ratio. That's nowhere near sustainable (as he found out after being promoted). In short, Hirsh doesn't do anything particularly well, and he's too old to be expected to improve much. I hope I'm wrong, but I think he's just an innings-eater. And there will be stretches when he's just intolerable.

- Jimenez takes Hirsh's rotation spot, and puts up league-averageish numbers for 3 months or so before being shut down for the year (I'm not predicting Tommy John here, just a forearm strain or something that the team is justifiably cautious with).

- Atkins: I'm not as bullish on him as some of you, but I do like him quite a bit more than my projections do. .315/.395/.525 seems about right. I'm much more likely to believe in a "breakout" season when it includes a dramatic improvement in plate discipline (Atkins) than when it doesn't (Holliday).

- Francis gives us 205 league-average innings. His improvement last year, in addition to being heavily BABIP-driven, was also a function of a fluky low HR rate. Guys with average G/F ratios, pitching in Coors, shouldn't be giving up HRs at merely 75% the league-average rate. It doesn't work that way.

[BigRapidsJackass]

The more I look at him, the more afraid I am that he's the new Scott Elarton. He had a lot of success in the minors, but much of it was BABIP-driven. He doesn't have great stuff; his K rate was above AAA average last year, but nothing particularly impressive. His control was a bit below average even by AAA standards, and was a real problem in his short, painful stint in the big leagues. He doesn't keep the ball down; he managed to allow just 5 HR in 137 IP in AAA last year, with a subpar G/F ratio.

This is all correct, and it's why I'm very wary. Two superb minor league seasons, yes. But it is still quite a small sample (300 IP or so?), so it is certainly possible (yes, even likely) that he's just not that good. So my guess that we'll be getting good things from him is probably wishful thinking.

And I also can't find a good reason to disagree with you about Francis. Really, I wish I could, but I can't. I think it amounts to "Hirsh and Francis are winners and will find a way to get it done." Completely irrational fantalk. And I'm sticking to it.

By the way, I know I've read that Billy Beane thing about the 2nd half/2nd year. Do you know whether any studies bear this out? Or is Beane just engaging in his own wishful thinking?

And I've come to believe that Will Carroll really knows nothing about everything.

[Heltonfan]

By the way, I know I've read that Billy Beane thing about the 2nd half/2nd year. Do you know whether any studies bear this out?

No idea. But it sounds pretty hokey, particularly since half a season is such a lousy sample to base any grand conclusions on. Just glancing at some of the more prominent young A's hitters over the years (Tejada, Chavez, Crosby, Swisher), it doesn't appear to yield anything particularly interesting or helpful.

[DieHardRoxFan]

I'm going with 72 wins since the starting pitching won't be as good as last year. Lopez is looking like a stiff. Also the team remained remarkably injury free last year.

Bullpen won't be any better, possibly worse if Corpas or Ramirez go to AAA because of money issues and Martin makes the team.

Hurdle is still the manager.

If the regular lineup stays healthy we may score a few more runs. If Finley or
Mabry make the team just a waste of roster space. That old BS cliche "Veteran presence".

Next year will be the opportunity to do something berfore the team breaks up
because of money issues. Will the front office stop up?

[hiaspire]

Who has the high mark on optimism? Probably not me, but I'll set a personal record for myself. For a long-suffering fan frustrated by the team's long-standing mediocrity, I think we'll see a positive shift this season as the young players continue to develop quite nicely into big leaguers under their often over-criticized field leadership.

I say 80-82 which isn't great but a nice step forward into one of the top 5 records in team history. And there will be a lot more optimism about the club building for the season after that if they show positive improvement this year. At times they will look much better than 80-82 and even like legitimate playoff contenders but are not ready to make it over that step just yet for a full year. Coming soon, hopefully, though.

[RockieRooter]

83, Just to top everyone.

[bedir than average]

Speaking of Predictions and "The Book"

Tango is doing a fan Community Forecast

Tango on Baseball

For those that think that algorithms don't have all of the answers this is a great way to test that out.

[BigRapidsJackass]

I call 84.



I'm always ridiculously optimistic in March.

Those who don't believe in March are tired of life itself ...

[Roxpert]

BigRapidsJackass, what if the Big Rapids Jackass wasn't with this team? Would they win 94, in your view?

[GerryInCS]

I'll call 68 as the starting pitching deteriorates over the season, but not before the bullpen collapses. At least one everyday player will miss a big chunk of the season (30+ games) and DOD will trade Fuentes and/or Holliday by August 1st.

[Roxpert]

Gerry, you make me seem like an optimist by comparison, LOL. I call for 75 wins after originally saying 73, due to all those simulations I ran. Truth is, it could be anywhere from the 60's to the 80's, depending on luck, health, and YES......trades. Fuentes and/or Holliday being traded in July would sabotoge the 2nd half in all likelihood, and mean our record is on the low end of the fan expectations. Such intrigue!

[HoyaRoxFan]

83 games.

Team starts out real slow, but comes out from the All-Star Break strong on a barnstorming tour of the worst teams in the National League followed by a nice homestand. Climbing just above .500 as the last week of July begins, DO'D decides this is the sign he needs to make a blockbuster move to save he and Hurdle. This spells the end of Todd Helton. We get a pitcher or two.

For a while, it looks promising as the Rockies have their best month in August, again thanks to a favorable schedule. We're in a playoff race come September, but the Rockies finish just below the mark.

Celebrating a successful season, Monfort decides to open his pocketbook... and fish out some more cash to keep Clint Hurdle.

Best News: Chris Iannetta is a serviceable catcher that shows promise for years to come, finally ending that revolving door.
Decent News: The humidor and standardization of baseballs across MLB continues to benefit Rockies pitching giving us a fighting chance every year.
Worst News: Absent Helton, some combination of Atkins/Baker/Hawpe rotate around to fill in the hole. This leaves us desiring an everyday RF even more, giving us three holes to fill in the outfield as Holliday gets away in the offseason, along with our continuing quest to find a 2B.

[indianadrew]

i am going with 85 games.

[Roxpert]

As a followup to my Diamond Mind simulation post in this thread, I wanted to share a link to an excellent, and thorough, simulation (also using Diamond Mind). Note that he did 4,000 simulated seasons using four different projection systems (Chone, Pecota, Diamond Mind, and Zips). He has the Rockies winning 79 games with a standard deviation of about 6 games, and making the playoffs 12.4% of the time.

The results, I think, were made better by using Pecota's projections (among others). It's very close to what I got using the Diamond Mind projections at just over 76 wins.

I wish I had the time to do what this guy did. 4,000 seasons would require several nice servers and database software integrated into it, I'd think.

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