Did O'Dowd & Monfort panic?

[BigRapidsJackass]

Bill Hall (first year arbitration eligible): 4 years, $24 million, with club option for a 5th year at $9.25 million. BP expected value over the first 4 years of the contract: 20 wins above replacement. (I think this is assuming he's a shortstop; the Brewers are moving him to CF)

Aaron Harang (2nd year of arbitration eligiblity): 4 years, $36.5 million, with club option for a 5th year at $12.75 million or a $2.5 million buyout. BP expected value over the first 4 years of the contract: 15.8 wins above replacement.

Meanwhile, in Rockies Town:

Jason Jennings (final year of arbitration eligibility): traded to Houston because his demands for a longterm contract would no doubt be unreasonable. BP expected value over the next four years: 12.4 WAR.

Matt Holliday (first year arbitration eligible): signed to a 1-year deal for $4.5 million. Monfort comments suggest that the Rockies have determined they cannot afford to keep him for the long haul. BP expected value over the next 4 years: 17.5 WAR.

Harang's contract covers one additional pre-free agency year as opposed to Jennings. But given his signing, and given the fact that he is clearly superior to Jennings, wouldn't you expect Jennings to be signable for something on the order of the average annual salary Harang will be getting? Is that really out of line in today's market? Looks to me like we're already seeing a rational response by non-FA eligible pitchers to the rise in salaries of FA pitchers. Harang took a discount to insure against the possibility of catastrophic injury. Jennings (although he has only one pre-FA year left) will certainly be motivated to do likewise.

Hall's contract should set the ceiling for Holliday. Again, is there anything outrageous here? It carries him through his free agency years (plus one year) for an average of $6 million per year.

Maybe both guys gave their clubs hometown discounts. Pretty safe to say that trashing your own players in the media makes it somewhat less likely that they'll give you similar discounts in the future.

But there's the Rockies' Way, and then there's everyone else's way ...

Now, it

[Roxpert]

In the case of Jennings, I don't think they panicked. They received good value in return, and Jennings apparently wanted to go home to Texas and didn't want to stay a Rockies player beyond his free agency year.

In the case of Holliday, we will just have to wait and see. There's still a chance that the Rockies would want to sign him long-term, though that seems less likely, given Monfort's public comments.

So, "panic" seems a strong word that doesn't fit in this case. On the contrary, I'd say the LACK of a sense of urgency (or one notch below "panic") has prevented the Rockies from being more aggressive, which is why our payroll is likely to remain in the bottom tier of MLB payrolls.

Complacency, not panic, is what infests our owners right now.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, you're right in that the Jennings deal was a good one, whether inspired by "panic" or not.

But Monfort's comments about not being able to afford to keep players like Holliday seem ill-advised at best, "panicky" at worst. I've noted that Hall's contract suggests that the cost of keeping Holliday through 2010 (through years 4-6, plus for his first year of free agency) could be, on average, $6 million a year. That's little more than the Dubious Duo of Mesa and King cost last year. Hardly back-breaking for the franchise, Helton or no Helton.

So why alienate fans and your current "star" players with such premature, ill-considered comments?

You tell me.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

So why alienate fans and your current "star" players with such premature, ill-considered comments?

You tell me.

Why? Indeed, I'll tell you. It's because Charlie Monfort is too simple and naive to know that he's alienating anyone. He thinks he's practicing "good public relations" by being open and honest in his points of view. He thinks (maybe rightfully so) that moaning and complaining about what modern-day players make and how they "hide behind their agents" will curry favor with the casual fans.

In short, Monfort really doesn't know any better. As I wrote on the other thread, he really needs a "handler" to figure out what and what not to say.

[BigRapidsJackass]

What Charlie really needs is a job.

He sold daddy's meatpacking plant and he's been playing at being a major league owner ever since.

I once heard a story about a guy down in Texas, kind of a ne'er-do-well son of a very prominent figure in business and government. This kid was 40 years old and was still partying like a frat boy. All of a sudden his mommy gives him a good talking to and he stops drinking and finds Jesus. Next thing you know his dad's buddies are fixing a deal to make him a big league franchise owner. Well, he turned that sweetheart deal into a small fortune of his own, and those same buddies decided to put a few bucks behind him to send him to Austin. Next thing you know ....

Moral of the story: the only way we get rid of Charlie the Owner is to make a pact with the devil to get Charlie the Governor, c. 2011.

[RockieRooter]

You're making assumptions about what Holliday is thinking and how he views himself. Then making conclusions about management. Hall's contract represents a ceiling for Holliday only if Holliday views himself as inferior to Hall. Competitive players usually don't view themselves in such a light.

Also, players usually get substantial raises as they go through arbitration, so given Holliday's initial 4.5 mil, I'd be surprised if he'd consider an average of 6 mil to be sufficient. All this is ignoring the possibility that he'd simply want to explore free agency. After all, he has the right to pursue the course he considers best, whether it fits with your worldview of what's best or not.

[Roxpert]

Funny, Jackass, but I've thought of the "W analogy" as it relates to Charlie Monfort many times. Beware of owners who are 2nd generation, and not self-made, wealth.