The Official Offseason Insanity Thread

[Heltonfan]

Let's keep track of (and mock) all of this winter's crazy offseason activity in this thread. RAR projections are for this year only; if you want to look at how they will age, subtract 3.2 runs per year for position players, 2 runs per year for starting pitchers, and 0.7 runs per year for relievers. $/win is calculated based on the value of the contract in 2007 dollars and on the overall expected value of the player (aging accounted for) over the life of the contract. I'll just list the 25 or so largest contracts here... this post would get ridiculously long if I tried to include every single signing.

Chris Carpenter: 3 years, $47.5 million, 47 RAR - $2.6m/win
J.D. Drew: 5 years, $70 million, 45 RAR - $2.9m/win
Jason Schmidt: 3 years, $47 million, 43 RAR - $3.5m/win
Mike Mussina: 2 years, $22 million, 37 RAR - $2.8m/win
Greg Maddux: 2 years, $20 million, 37 RAR - $2.5m/win
Alfonso Soriano: 8 years, $136 million, 35 RAR - $5.1m/win
Aramis Ramirez: 5 years, $73 million, 34 RAR - $4.3m/win
Gary Sheffield: 2 years, $28 million, 31 RAR - $4.5m/win
Tom Glavine: 2 years, $21 million, 31 RAR - $3.2m/win
Ray Durham: 2 years, $14.5 million, 29 RAR - $2.4m/win
Gary Matthews Jr.: 5 years, $50 million, 28 RAR - $3.7m/win
Julio Lugo: 4 years, $36 million, 27 RAR - $3.4m/win
Frank Thomas: 2 years, $18 million, 25 RAR - $3.5m/win
Vicente Padilla: 3 years, $34 million, 25 RAR - $4.3m/win
Carlos Lee: 6 years, $100 million, 23 RAR - $8.6m/win
Orlando Hernandez: 2 years, $12 million, 23 RAR - $2.4m/win
Dave Roberts: 3 years, $18 million, 23 RAR - $2.6m/win
Nomar Garciaparra: 2 years, $18 million, 21 RAR - $4.4m/win
Mark DeRosa: 3 years, $13 million, 20 RAR - $2.1m/win
Bengie Molina: 3 years, $16 million, 17 RAR - $3.1m/win
Adam Eaton: 3 years, $24 million, 16 RAR - $4.9m/win
Juan Pierre: 5 years, $44 million, 15 RAR - $8.3m/win
Woody Williams: 2 years, $12.5 million, 15 RAR - $4.0m/win
Gil Meche: 5 years, $55 million, 14 RAR - $8.8m/win
Alex Gonzalez: 3 years, $14 million, 9 RAR - $6.7m/win
Justin Speier: 4 years, $18 million, 9 RAR - $4.5m/win
Danys Baez: 3 years, $19 million, 7 RAR - $8.2m/win

Average of all signings so far: $4.0 million per win.

[RMF]

HF, why don't you post Jennings W/$. After seeing the Walker $$$ I'm surprised we didn't get a trade proposal for Fat Ole Blow Game.

[Heltonfan]

Jennings: $5.5 million for 33 RAR = $1.6 million per win.

And some other relevant data: the going rate in last year's free agent market, taken as a whole, was $2.6m/win. Starting pitchers, however, were paid $3.2m/win. Two winters ago, it was $2.5m/win for the market as a whole, $3.1 for starting pitchers. So, combining that knowledge with the $4.1m/win figure from this year's market so far, we should probably expect this year's free agent SPs to get $4.5m per win or more... meaning that Jennings provides roughly triple the value per dollar that teams will get on the open market. This is why I think we can get a king's ransom for him.

[Roxpert]

Heltonfan, I made it over here, and it was pretty seamless.

Given the silly money that is being thrown around this offseason, would you recommend that the Rockies do nothing on the free agent market, and strive to improve through the trade market? I happen to think that's not a bad idea, and we have an opportunity to upgrade the club by trading Jennings while gaining financial flexibility by trading Helton. Even Holliday and Fuentes should be shopped to see what's available in return.

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Given the silly money that is being thrown around this offseason, would you recommend that the Rockies do nothing on the free agent market, and strive to improve through the trade market?

I'd try to do both, but there are only a select few free agents out there that I'd go after. Julio Lugo reportedly wants 4 years, $32 million; why he wants to shortchange himself like that is beyond me, but if he does, we'd be crazy not to take him up on it. He'd be a great solution for us at SS this year, and should have plenty of trade value if we want to get rid of him next winter to make room for Tulo. I wouldn't hesitate to go a little higher than the 4/32 figure if necessary.

Beyond that, I still think that Dave Roberts at 3 years, $15 million or so would be a fine signing, and I wouldn't mind bringing in Ray Durham on a short term deal.

We probably don't have the money to sign more than one of those guys, even if we deal Jennings (which, of course, we should). But there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to get one of those three.

I sure as heck wouldn't deal Holliday, though. I'd be very surprised if he loses any trade value over the next year or so (if nothing else, a somewhat rejuvenated top of the order should lead to more RBIs, and there are still plenty of teams left who care about such things). And with that in mind, I see no reason not to enjoy another year of cheap production from him.

Helton? We've discussed it a million times. And the league-wide inflation of salaries works both ways... on the one hand, it gives him more trade value, and on the other hand, it means we wouldn't be able to do as much with the money freed up by dealing him. I still find it very hard to believe that we could find a deal that would really benefit us.

Fuentes? Yes, absolutely, trade him. This is the right time. He's got the "proven closer" shine now, he'll be making $3.5 million next year, and between Ramirez, Corpas, and Ubaldo Jimenez (who might really benefit from a move to the pen), I think we'll be able to find an acceptable replacement.

Let's see... if we swap Jennings for Baker and Crain, sign Lugo, and deal Fuentes, that's a 14-run upgrade to the '07 Rockies (without adding anything at all to the payroll), and positions us quite nicely for future years as well. And that's assuming no contributions at all from whoever we get for Fuentes; an assumption made for the sake of convenience, not realism.

So that would be my general plan of attack. That, combined with a couple bargain-bin acquisitions (TIR suggested bringing back John Thomson; I'd love to see that happen), should get us to 83 projected wins or so, making us, at the very least, legitimate contenders for the wild card.

[hoser]

I think that moving Fuentes would leave the Rox in trouble late in ballgames. Similar to the beginning of the 2005 season where it hurt the team right from the get go. Ramirez, Corpas, or Jimenez may or may not be able to handle the closer's role while we know Fuentes can.

Of course, this assumes the Rox are actually going to try and win in 2007 and that's a HUGE assumption. If they're trying to go with their third rebuilding process in the last 3 or 4 years then trading Jennings, Fuentes and Helton should all be pursued.

[CSM]

Originally Posted by hoser

I think that moving Fuentes would leave the Rox in trouble late in ballgames. Similar to the beginning of the 2005 season where it hurt the team right from the get go. Ramirez, Corpas, or Jimenez may or may not be able to handle the closer's role while we know Fuentes can.

Of course, this assumes the Rox are actually going to try and win in 2007 and that's a HUGE assumption. If they're trying to go with their third rebuilding process in the last 3 or 4 years then trading Jennings, Fuentes and Helton should all be pursued.

In the scenario Heltonfan described above, wouldn't Jesse Crain (or maybe Juan Rincon) take over closing duties? I doubt Corpas or Ramirez would be ready to take on such a responsibility.

I'm all for trading Fuentes, especially in a market where Joe Borowski is the top closer available (teams will overpay for Fuentes).

[Roxpert]

I wonder who we could get for Fuentes, and who we SHOULD get. Obviously, if Jennings and Fuentes were traded, we would have to get a pitcher capable of closing in return since I agree with Hoser that we really don't have a legit "closer-ready" reliever on the team other than Fuentes.

The Rockies are a "Rubics Cube". Since we really can't afford (or don't have to stomach to pay) top free agent or veteran talent via trades, we have to figure out a rare combination of trades and bargain-basement signings that would allow us to compete well into September instead of just early August. I'm skeptical this will happen.

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by hoser

Ramirez, Corpas, or Jimenez may or may not be able to handle the closer's role while we know Fuentes can.

Fuentes is a middle-of-the-pack closer at best. Is he likely to do better than Ramirez/Corpas? Sure. But the dropoff there is probably something like 5 runs over the course of the season. We should be able to make that up by picking up another reliever, either on the FA market or as part of a Jennings deal.

Fuentes certainly has value to us, and if he were still dirt-cheap, I'd love to keep him around. But I think we can find other ways to spend his $3.5 million salary, and as the best reliever on the market (except for Gagne, but there are other issues there), I'd expect him to have considerable trade value.

[TheIncredibleRox]

HF,

In re: to your RAR/$ projections, the most disgusting fact is this; nearly all those players are in the decline phases of their careers, and the length of some of the deals (Soriano 8 years, Pierre 5 years, Speier 4 years) is astonishing.

And when you consider that most of the deals are at least somewhat backloaded, it looks like a horrible future. For example, $4.8M/win in 2007 will likely be by far the best value the Cubs will receive during the life of that contract.

[wolf213]

The Pierre Contract is amazing isn't it? Pierre is a good guy and I have nothing against him, but to throw that kinda of money to a guy a leadoff hitter with below average OBP is crazy.

Im on board with trading Fuentes, not that I don't like him, but I think Corpas, and Ramarez will be able to take over. We also have Tsao who was originally crowned the closser of the future before his latest injury. For once we have depth, and I would like us to use it.

I would also like to sign Atkins up long term as well, and Holliday, but signing Holliday is a pipedream, he's gone after his arb years.

What is Kaz and Kim's RAR/$ projections. Just curious

[Heltonfan]

Kim: $2.5 million, 20 RAR = $1.1m/win. An incredible bargain.
Matsui: $1.5 million, 4 RAR = $2.9m/win. Needless to say, if O'Dowd and Co. thought he was a 4 RAR player, they wouldn't have given him that deal; we're not in a position where we should be spending millions on bench players.

[rockieprogress]

HF, are alluding to the signing of Matsui with your rejuvenated top of the order comment? Or do you think the Rockies are going to sign someone else.

Personally, I think the Rox FO is afraid of the market this off-season, and don't anticipate ANY signing of a FA from another team beyond a scrapheap #5 starter.

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by rockieprogress

HF, are alluding to the signing of Matsui with your rejuvenated top of the order comment? Or do you think the Rockies are going to sign someone else.

Neither. Somewhat improved Helton + lack of Barmes = more RBI opportunities for Holliday.

[rockieprogress]

Are you not of the opinion that Helton will be the #5 hitter? Or do you think that he'll be put back into the 2 slot, where I thought he was productive, and drop out of there if Baker is playing in RF.

I agree that removing Barmes, and his jumping at pitches, should help the top of the order. A bigger rally killer hasn't been seen here since Neifi left.