The Official Offseason Insanity Thread

[TheIncredibleRox]

I just don't view him (or the signing for a team that needs him, can afford him, and needed to make an impact move in this market instead of waiting for next year and possibly better market prices but missed opportunities) that way.

The Yankees could afford to pay Brian Fuentes $20M a year if he were a free agent. It would satisfy a need of shoring up their bullpen. It would be an impact move.

So, would that be a good move Hi?

put them on the open market for intelligent baseball observers and they might really look completely different in terms of demand for the specific talent/potential and faith in those abilities for the investment required

Are these guys never wrong, Hi? Of course you'll admit that they often are.

Thats the point of examining and sometimes challenging the validity of their decisions using alternative methods. If the 'traditional baseball view' creates so many foul-ups, how much sense does it make to examine decisions through the lense of the 'traditional baseball view'?

And it's not like anyones doing that just for the sake of being different, we're doing it because we've arrived at a point in science where we have a fairly high ability to make these types of evluations ourselves. Flawless? Not nearly. But it's pretty damn good, and often proves to have more foresight than the 'traditional methods' (although I'm curious as to how exactly you would define those).

Otherwise, what's the point, Hi? If your rebuttal to HF's argument is basically "they're in these positions and they're working with more information and on more levels than you, so you can't judge them," then how could any of us (yourself included) ever criticize a decision?

[Heltonfan]

Some nice bargain shopping going on today. Adam Kennedy for 3 years, $10 million is an absolute steal. I like the Zaun deal too; yes, he's old, but an average regular going for under $4 million a year, in this market, is rare indeed.

Kip Wells projects at 4.78, Randy Wolf 4.96. Both of them have scary medical histories, but Wolf more so (Wells has 356 innings pitched in the past three years, compared to Wolf's 273). Wolf gets $8 million; Wells gets $4 million. Walt Jocketty is a solidly above-average GM; Ned Colletti is a bumbling fool.

[hiaspire]

TIR, as I mentioned I think those judgements are entirely dependent upon the specific situations as opposed to just universal rules and one-size-fits-all conclusions. These issues are much more complex than that, and there are things that need to be considered IMO that isn't in any formula that is very unique to each decision.

If Boston and the Yankees BOTH wanted the same key player, I think over-spending can be competitively justified. There are so many other factors to consider, though, beyond just numbers alone including your other needs and plans. If you have your entire 25 man roster already mostly set and are very happy with it except for one area of weakness, then I can't see as much problem over-paying with readily available resources to fix it -- even if the powerful calculation says it is horribly bad. It doesn't know SQUAT about your specific situation. On the field it makes a stronger impact than the numbers say there. It isn't usually as simple IMO as what a math formula spits out, although it is very valuable information to also consider as part of the puzzle pieces.

There are more things in the real world to consider than just RAR versus contract value or whatever IMO. Often these valuations are based on universal theoretical situations completely ripped of all meaningful context in order to compare players equally, when sometimes you really need to apply those unique specifics to each team to determine whether it makes sense or not.

If you think the prices are outrageous one year for something in short supply that you really need, then you don't have to buy. The Rockies certainly don't now. Maybe it is wise for most teams not to as calculated, and you are free to praise those teams deciding to do nothing instead of participating in this market. But that can't apply to everyone in the same way, as all teams are different. If you are a team built to win now with some older veterans that needs to generate some excitement and run support to entice your best pitchers back to make another championship run, then maybe not participating isn't the best decision either for you specifically.

Neither side of the philosophical debate is always right, but when talking about foul-ups I think there have been more of those from the statistical perspective on this site in recent years than the more traditional views on highly debated matters (although maybe I'm biased there), so I wouldn't phrase it quite like you do. As opposed to the real world, here the statistical view point is by far the dominant perspective expressed that isn't often challenged otherwise and I think it should be reasonably in cases where miscalculation seems high.

how could any of us (yourself included) ever criticize a decision?

I criticize decisions made by real baseball people ALL THE TIME, especially related to the Rockies poor choices. It isn't my view that nobody should question people in the game. I respect market forces, though, and the opinions of those I trust the most. When the vast majority of the brightest minds in the game rate someone's talent level a certain way, it isn't something that I think should be completely ignored in favor of one-dimensional numbers alone. I think you need to consider both quite strongly to get the whole story, but I lean more towards needing overwhelming statistical evidence to go against common sense and market forces in the game. Different people lean the other way, or perhaps choose to not even consider non-numeric messy input, and that's okay too as it creates different perspectives and arguements on issues.

Just as traditionalist aren't always right as you want to highlight, so to are stats guys wrong on many of these debated issues each and every season. I've been involved in so many of those to know. These are just cases where the calculations look completely different from reality as I watch the game. Certainly those instances of disconnect should be examined further IMO to see if there are other factors that need to be considered beyond just what is on paper, because the answer isn't always there.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Adam Kennedy for 3 years, $10 million is an absolute steal.

Another one of those things that drives me nuts.

O'Dowd just signed Kaz Matsui for $1.5 million plus incentives.

Now he want to sign Jamey Carroll for about the same.

So we've got 3 million bucks committed to second basemen. And once again, we've decided to sign two marginal players rather than one good player.

Having said that, at this point improving at 2B is a lost cause. My left brain tells me that signing a utility infielder for 3 years is a mistake. But my right brain can still recognize a pattern, and it's telling me that they should go ahead and lock up Carroll. This will save us from 2007 and 2008 O'Dowd offseason obsessions with acquiring veteran utility men. I can watch the 2007 season in relative comfort, not constantly having to wonder which marginal utility men are Danno's obscure objects of desire. Could it be Willie Bloomfield next time? Rey Sanchez? No. It'll be good ol' Jamey Carroll straight through till the end of the decade. And I can finally get some sleep knowing that the horrors of Juan Castro will not be visited upon Coors Field.

[wolf213]

I actually do Like Carroll, and at this moment in time he has seemed to fill a void at 2b. I think their are more pressing matters then 2b on this team at the moment, and if Carroll proves not to be a fluke (long shot I know) then we should be ok with him at 2b.

Kaz on the other hand.....


Probably the most scary thing to come this would be one of the following:

1) Steve Finley as the CF
2) Darrin Erstad as the CF
3) Clint Barmes as your CF

All three are very possible, and keep me awake at night thinking about the pure horror of each possibility

[indianadrew]

barmes played outfield in college, and was drafted as an outfielder. i cant believe that they have not tried that before. i think k-mat and carroll are both WELL worth the money they will make next year. 2nd base seems to be set for next year. i think SS is a bigger question mark. i think barmes get everything worked out by spring training and we will see a pre-deermeat year. GO HORSE

[wolf213]

No Offence Drew, but dream on. Barmes was a fluke, he was never a great prospect by any means and had a good month. Its time to move on.

[CSM]

Trade Idea (spawned by this talk of Deermeat playing CF).

Clint Barmes to Toronto in exchange for Russ Adams.

Failed SS for failed SS.

Adams would start next season with the Sky Sox, refining his game and being groomed as Matsui/Carroll’s possible replacement at 2B. Barmes would be the Blue Jays defensive-minded utility infielder and fallback option at shortstop. Adams is a 26 year old infielder who is prone to making throwing errors (which would likely be reduced by a transition to 2B) and might become a productive second baseman by 2008 (an Adam Kennedy/Mark Loretta type player?).

The best thing about this trade is that it would take Barmes away from his biggest fan, Clint Hurdle.


Alternate topic:
Do you expect Barmes to be traded this winter?

[BigRapidsJackass]

barmes played outfield in college, and was drafted as an outfielder. i cant believe that they have not tried that before. i think k-mat and carroll are both WELL worth the money they will make next year.

Drew, am I missing something here? Isn't the concept to upgrade offensively at CF, not to find the worst single regular performer at the plate in the National League and shift him to CF?

The Barmes to CF thing made some sense when the notion (pre Deer Meat) was that Barmes might hit enough to stick but would be seriously challenged defensively at SS.

Now we know that precisely the opposite is true. Barmes is a better than average defensive SS. He has value at that position, but he'll never be a starter unless he shows some ability to hit. Moving him to CF would be ridiculous.

I do agree that the Blue Jays could use him. They are indeed in far worse shape at SS than us.

As for the Carroll/Kaz Mat combo: I have not problem with it. Just don't expect Kaz Mat to suddenly be an on-base machine at the top of the order. His lifetime Japan League OBP was .369. His MLB career OBP is .318. His value in Japan came from being considered an excellent defensive SS with some pop in his bat (as many as 20 HRs a year) and base stealing skills. I like bringing him back because I think he has the potential to recover the pop in his bat and to provide a bit of energy at the top of the order. But by "potential to recover" I mean something like "there is a 1 in 3 chance he will finally resemble the player the Mets thought they were getting." Very possible, but not very likely.

[rockieprogress]

Haven't seen any mention of Dave Roberts signing with the Giants.

To all the advocates of the Rockies signing him, were you willing to pay him $18M for 3 years?
I certainly wouldn't, considering he's 34, and isn't worth more than about $6M for 2 years IMO.

[RMF]

I think the consensus for Roberts was something like 2 years 5 million.

Troy Renk mentioned a possible Milledge, Bannister for Jennings trade. I think that was more a product of wishful thinking and common sense. If only it had been credible rumor.

The bottom line, there is healthy interest in JJ. That should promote competition, which should help our inept front office.

This quote really made me mad.

This is a quote from the champagne baby.

"The assumption is that we thought through the ramifications of signing Hampton and Neagle, but we didn't," Rockies president Keli McGregor said

.


Well if you weren't thinking the ramifications through... what the hell was everyone in the organization doing? Let me guess, they were too busy in their prayer/ AA meetings. That quote is absolutely ridiculous.

[BigRapidsJackass]

To all the advocates of the Rockies signing him, were you willing to pay him $18M for 3 years?
I certainly wouldn't, considering he's 34, and isn't worth more than about $6M for 2 years IMO.

Yes, I would be willing to pay him $18 million over 3 years.

That's 6 million a year, which is approximately:

One LaTroy Hawkins to be a setup man (of the 4K/9 IP last year) at $3.5 million

One Kaz Matsui to leadoff (he of the career .320 OBP) at $1.5 million

One Darin Erstad (he of the sub-Cory Sullivan OPS since 2001) at a likely $1.5 million plus incentives.

Yes, 3 years is one year longer than I would've liked to go on Roberts. And $6 million is more than I'd like to pay. But that's the market.

Look, it's not like the Rockies don't spend this money every year. They do, and every year they have nothing to show for it.

Jose Mesa + Ray King + Eli Marrero = $6 million in '06
Hawkins + Matsui + Erstad/Brady Clark type = $6 million in '07
Three other similar crappy players in '08 will no doubt = $6 million, too.

Remember how shocked everyone was that Bobby Howry got 3 years and $12 million last offseason? Boy, the Cubs were idiots.

They actually wound up with a solid setup guy who's cost them 8 million bucks over the '06 and '07 seasons.

We got Jose Mesa and LaTroy Hawkins for 7 million bucks over the same time frame.

Who's the real idiot here?

[wolf213]

Really quick here, I think the move of the Cards resigning Carp to 5 years for 65 is a steal. That amounts to about 13 million a year for a top 5 pitcher in the league.

Compare that to the 11 million a year that Padilla will receive, and you can see this deal is even more of a steal.

[Heltonfan]

5/65 isn't the right way to look at the Carpenter deal, though - they already had him signed through '08 for $16 million. So it's 3 years, $49m for Carpenter's 2009-11 seasons. Which in this market, is still a great deal, in large part because that $49m is only $37m in 2007 dollars. But it's not quite as good as the 5/65 idea would suggest.

Addressing some earlier points: yes, I too would have given Dave Roberts a 3/18 deal. That's $2.57m per win, about 60% of the going rate... if you're too cheap even for that, you're in deep trouble.

And for once, I actually have to give Brian Sabean credit for something; he's making a nice batch of moves here. Roberts, as already discussed, is a bargain... Ray Durham at $7 million a year is a terrific deal... and assuming that Bengie Molina's deal winds up being in the 3/18 range, that will be a solid pickup as well. Feliz is a waste of money, as is Aurilia... but all told, the Giants are paying only $3.1m/win. Now, there are those who would say that the Giants have no real chance to contend in '07, and should therefore rebuild (not giving out contracts to a new batch of veterans); I think that's absurd. It would be a different story if the Giants actually had a promising crop of youngsters, but Eliezer Alfonzo, Kevin Frandsen, and Lance Niekro aren't going to lead this team to the promised land. They have money to spend... they have no reason not to spend it... and they're spending it in a very reasonable fashion. They'll at least have a somewhat more watchable team, and they should be able to trade Molina, Roberts, or Durham at some point if they want to. And if they can bring Bonds back, an 85-win season isn't out of the question.

[Roxpert]

Heltonfan, Rotoworld isn't nearly as copasetic about the Bengie Molina signing as you are.....

Bengie Molina-C- Blue Jays Dec. 4 - 5:24 pm et

The Giants and Bengie Molina have agreed to terms on a three-year deal, according to Yahoo! Sports.

They learned nothing from Mike Matheny. Absolutely nothing. Molina is rapidly turning into a below average defender, and he could also lose it offensively at any time. Plus, there just didn't seem to be anyone else interested. That the Giants are giving him a three-year deal anyway is going to qualify as another one of the worst moves of the winter.

And later, they said this.....

Bengie Molina-C- Blue Jays Dec. 4 - 11:48 pm et

Bengie Molina's three-year deal with the Giants is expected to be worth about $15 million.

That Brian Sabean, he's one shrewd negotiator. We wonder how high he might have gone had he actually been bidding against another team.


I respect both you and Rotoworld's writers, so having not studied Molina closely, I am wondering why there would be such a divergence of viewpoints toward this signing? They are absolutely skewering Sabean here, but you apparently like what he's done this offseason.