The Official Offseason Insanity Thread

[Heltonfan]

You'll get no argument from me on Loretta. He's probably a better player than Biggio... in any case, he's very nice insurance to have around. That's a fine signing.

Clemens would make the Astros the favorites in the NL Central. In this market, he's worth the $4-5 million a month that he'll probably get.

If you'll indulge me, I'm still thoroughly baffled as to how Carlos Lee can be seen as an elite talent. His OBP and SLG aren't at all spectacular. Even his traditional statistics aren't great (he finished 16th in MLB in home runs last year, a career best). So, in order for me to better understand this, let's try a simple question: if you had a completely average lineup (i.e. one in which each guy hits .270/.335/.430), and could add any one NL hitter to it, who all would you take before Lee?

[hiaspire]

You can't select from all players, though. Some are nearly unobtainable (I don't see the Cards trading Albert Pujols to their division rivals), and others would require a steep price in young talent to acquire.

You can only add from the available talent on the market at a given moment in time. Of the bats on the market this year, I would have much more confidence in investing long-term in Carlos Lee than most any other. It is an excellent fit on the field (where his offensive game seems to fit the park) as well as off the field where he's coming back home as a high profile addition to a franchise that had badly needed another bat to rejuvinate a struggling and inconsistent offensive attack. Carlos Lee will be a very popular figure there and fine asset for that franchise both this year as they make another veteran run, as well as into the future. You don't have to give a darn about that, but they certainly do in the business and front offices across baseball everywhere.

If the Astros are going to be playoff contenders, I think you'll see Carlos Lee finish quite highly in the MVP voting with 35+ HRs while hitting around .290 and driving in 125+ runs in an improved offense. No need for another RBI discussion, as I understand/agree with most of those points related to team influences around a hitter, but he's going to be a big time run producer on a playoff team and that has tremendous value in the game and always has.

[Heltonfan]

I know that Pujols, Cabrera, etc. aren't available. That's irrelevant to my question. I'm trying to figure out exactly how good you think Carlos Lee is, and the best way to do that is to compare him to everyone, not just to the pool of available talent. Please answer the question directly. If you don't like the way I framed the question, try it this way: which NL players would you consider better offensive players than Lee?

[hiaspire]

We answer the question from different perspectives. To me (and the Astros if they want to make a move TODAY) how he compares to others ON THE MARKET is far more important than how he compares to other players generally that are no where near your pressing decisions and totally irrelevant to improvement options.

As a team, you focus on your own needs and goals. They don't give a darn how Pujols or any other non-obtainable player compares to Lee because that is entirely outside of their consideration for improvement TODAY. A team can only focus on available options to them, and the best ways for you to improve today. All that other stuff is irrelevant to their situation.

If you want to add a player from the market today, you can only deal with available options on the market and pay the going rate today. If you want a service within a limited market, you have to be willing to pony up the best offer.

I don't have an exact list of players to give you. I don't keep them in order as many do here. I wouldn't put him in the top tier of elite hall-of-famer-to-be performers, but certainly amongst that next grouping of impact bats. And the best long-term addition to a middle of the lineup available this year - which is all that really matters to teams wanting to add a big bat this year.

But I'd take Pujols and Cabrera certainly over him. Ryan Howard too, as I've been a long-time fan calling for us to trade for him years ago, but he's also less proven and needs to establish himself over the years as other top offensive stars have. Same with David Wright who is a great young asset and talented offensive contributor. Jason Bay also. Beltran you'd take over him in terms of talent, and production last year but not the season before where he initially disappointed in his big apple first impression. Berkman is a better bat in his lineup (they'll be great together with Lee driving him home often) but he also has had some issues in recent seasons keeping their offense afloat. Guys like Carlos Delgado and some older veteran proven sluggers might be in a similar category as Lee offensively, but with less faith for longer-term future investment.

I have answered your question in previous discussions about other guys you have mentioned before in comparison to him who may look similiar by some numeric arguements, but have far less consistency and faith within baseball in terms of talent evaluation. He's going to be a huge all-star bat in the middle of their order for many years to come. There aren't many in the league I would take over him, outside of the truly elite performers or rising young stars with bright futures. Most importantly, most of those are not available options to teams looking to make a big bat move like Lee on the current market.

[wolf213]

I personally would take Holliday and Atkins over Lee as well, even Helton, who has a better OBP and OPS.

[Heltonfan]

As would I. My list: Bonds, Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, Howard, Helton, Wright, C. Jones, D. Lee, Bay, Holliday, Delgado, N. Johnson, Edmonds, Dunn, McCann, A. Ramirez, Beltran, Alou, Atkins, Rolen, Utley, Burrell, A. Jones, B. Giles. That's 25 guys, if I counted right.

[hiaspire]

Difference of opinion is what makes the world go round. Best of luck to you building your team around a decaying Barry Bonds if he's not in jail. You can make Matt Holliday the center of your team instead of Lee, but if it was me I'd trade him from our team tomorrow as an over-valued asset worth more in trade than keeping. He's a .262 hitter away from Coors Field in his career with .315 OBP. Stand up and cheer for that coming to a non-Coors stadium near you! Several of those guys mentioned are also massive injury risks who routinely miss huge chunks of the season. But that's no concern, JD Drew can probably still endorse his checks even if his shoulder blows out - best signing ever! We have very different ideas of what makes a player an attractive asset for a team to invest in.

You can like Nick Johnson all you want on the very rare moments he consistently contributes to a team dependably for a season, but if it would cost you an arm and a leg to acquire him then it doesn't really matter to anyone except his actual team that pays his doctor bills. All that matters to teams looking to make a move TODAY is what is AVAILABLE. Nothing else. I'm not sure why you prefer to ignore that perspective in favor of something far more general and often irrelevant to decisions today.

There is sometimes a huge difference between the numbers on paper over a 3-year period of time (where Barry might look good where he didn't on the field last year) and the demand most teams would have for a long-term investment in a player considering a multitude of factors.

Are most on that list readily available today. If not, it means nothing then. You don't have to from the stands, but every team MUST and can only be concerned about their own situation and how they can improve today with available alternatives. That's all. Everything else related to that is totally irrelevant to your needs and objectives today.

[wolf213]

Originally Posted by hiaspire

As I mentioned, your list is utterly worthless to a team looking to make a move today if most of those players are not available or easily acquirable. That means nothing then. You don't have to look at things through that perspective sitting in the distant stands, but every team must individually and can only be concerned about their own situation and how they can improve today. That's all. Everything else related to that is totally irrelevant to your needs and objectives today.

I disagree. Lets take a look at that list here for a sec.

Bonds- Was very avalable as a free agent, and could've been had for less then Lee

Pujos - Untouchable

Cabara - Unouchable, for now, but with the Marlins you never know when the next fire sale will be

Berkman - Already on the Astros

Howard - Not attainable now, but as you said was very avalable a few years ago.

Helton - We all know he can be had

Wright - untouchable

C. Jones - I belive the Braves would part with him for some younger players.

D. Lee - Untouchable

Bay - Was involved in one of the most lopsided trades in the decade, could've easily been had from the Padres a few years back

Holliday - Word is he is gone after he becomes a free agent. Rockies would probably listen to offers for him

Delgado - Could've been had many times in the past.

N. Johnson - Wasnt much thought of as a Yankee could've easily been had a few years back.

Edmonds - Free agent this year I belive

Dunn - He's been rumored many many times with trades

Alue - Free agent this year.


I could go on but I think we all get the point. Just about everyone one of the players in HF list could be had, or sometime in the past was avalable for cheap.

My Point? The Astros and other teams should be spending more time trying to find the next Ryan Howard, or Jason Bay rather then throwing money at a player who had a OPS below .900 last year.

[hiaspire]

True, but whether they could have been traded for YEARS AGO is also irrelevant to a team making decisions to improve TODAY. There are no time machines.

Bonds- Was very avalable as a free agent, and could've been had for less then Lee.
Yes he could have with much higher risk and much less recent performance. As I said, you sign Bonds to a long-term deal and I'll sign Lee to a long-term deal and we'll see how that works out in the end. Intelligent teams like Houston also look for guys who can fit into their situation. They don't get the loud-mouth trouble-makers. Most of their guys have been down-to-earth and fit their cohesive unit well, as Carlos Lee will in coming home. How things fit for your unique situation and the image of your club to its fans is also very important from a franchise perspective.

There certainly are good players you could trade all your prospects to acquire, though, but that is also a huge price to pay. For a team in Houston's position, that also doesn't make much sense. They want to win today with a veteran team, but know that these guys will be aging and they will need to have a pipeline of talent for afterwards. Spending money on improvements makes much more sense for a team in that situation, especially if you are using money that was repurposed from other expenses that have moved along.

Would you trade all your good young players for Matt Holliday who only hits .256-.280 away from Coors with vastly reduced power and .313-.330 OBP in other parks? Or sign a proven hitter outside of Coors Field who consistently gets the job done and allows you to also keep your young talent? To me, that would be a no-brainer for signing Carlos Lee. I can't believe such suggestions of Holliday over Lee. I like Adam Dunn too (although a completely different type of player who strikes out all the time in comparison to Lee who makes a ton of contact for a power hitter and strikes out rarely) and would rate them in a similar category, but I would rather sign Lee and keep my prized prospects than emptying my farm system for Dunn and also paying him on top of that. Wouldn't you? If you are a team that gets on base (as they can with guys like Berkman) you also probably prefer somone cleaning up who doesn't whiff and come up totally empty much of the time compared to a guy who will hit with power but make more productive contact there more often.

I'm not sure why people here seem to value keeping other people's money more so than young talent in such discussions where finances are over-emphasized. To me, trading away top young talent is a much higher acquisition price than some rich owner's money he was going to spend anyway.

If you are on the edge of the playoffs with a veteran team, you don't spend all your time and resources primarily worried about young unproven talent and finding the next Ryan Howard. That's for rebuilding teams that can give unproven guys a chance to see if they develop since the team is losing anyway. If you are Houston, you want something proven that you can win with NOW in this window of opportunity before it closes.

[mets2k]

Rocky Mountain News

Rockies signed RHP Dave Veres to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

It'd be a great story if the 40-year-old Veres could make it back to the majors after his replacement surgery. The former Rockies' closer last pitched in the majors in 2003 and has been out of baseball entirely the last two years. There's little chance of him winning a job out of spring training.