Prospect Rankings

Heltonfan · 11-22-2006, 02:35 PM

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus released his top 10 Rockies prospect list today: http://baseballprospectus.com/articl...articleid=5720

It's subscriber-only, so I'll pick and choose a few interesting things to share. First, the actual list:

1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
2. Franklin Morales, LHP
3. Dexter Fowler, CF
4. Chris Iannetta, C
5. Ian Stewart, 3B
6. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
7. Shane Lindsay, RHP
8. Greg Reynolds, RHP
9. Samuel Deduno, RHP
10. Joe Koshansky, 1B

A couple oddities in there. Stewart's '06 minor league numbers translate to a .210 ABR, compared to .196 for Fowler... given that Fowler is only one year younger, and Stewart has a better track record, I'd definitely give Stewart the edge. I'd probably rank Ubaldo higher than Fowler as well; he's two years older, but three minor league levels ahead, and it's not as if he doesn't have a high ceiling.

Also, as I've said in the past, I'd put Iannetta at the very top of the list, even ahead of Tulo; his numbers are just too good to ignore. And towards the bottom of the list, it's hard to see how Koshansky ranks ahead of Jeff Baker, a better hitter with more defensive value.

Noteworthy commentary from the article:
On Reynolds: "In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 3 starter."
On Fowler: "If you are looking for a breakout player in 2007, Fowler plus the California League might be the perfect combination."

madness · 11-22-2006, 06:39 PM

Not that Shane Lindsay hasn't been sensational (dominant even) but he has suffered a career threatening injury. I would think that the health concerns alone would prevent him from making these types of lists.

Heltonfan · 11-22-2006, 07:05 PM

I probably wouldn't include Lindsay on the top 10 list either. But my main concern is that he's still so raw (check out those walk rates; classic example of a kid with great stuff and no control over it). The injury history is definitely a strike against him, but suffice it to say that I was much more worried about that a year ago, before he returned from the labrum tear. He seems to have survived the injury without becoming any more hittable, which is a good sign.

madness · 11-22-2006, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

I probably wouldn't include Lindsay on the top 10 list either. But my main concern is that he's still so raw (check out those walk rates; classic example of a kid with great stuff and no control over it). The injury history is definitely a strike against him, but suffice it to say that I was much more worried about that a year ago, before he returned from the labrum tear. He seems to have survived the injury without becoming any more hittable, which is a good sign.

You know that he ended up having the labrum surgery this fall, right?

Quote:

However, news is not as positive about Lindsay, 21, the Melbourne, Australia, native who was the MiLB.com Short-Season Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2005. Lindsay underwent arthroscopic surgery late last week to repair an injury to his right labrum, which had been a problem since the end of the 2005 season. Rockies medical director Dr. Thomas Noonan performed the procedure.

Lindsay's 2006 season started late because of the labrum issue and his mother's serious illness, but he pitched well -- 4-3, 2.73, 91 strikeouts to 44 walks and a .196 average at Tri-City of the Norhtwest League and Asheville. The Rockies sent him to play in the Hawaiian League but had him return to Denver before throwing a pitch.

Tom Probst, the Rockies' medical operations director, said on Monday that Lindsay will be down for a year, then the club will determine how he will proceed with efforts to return to the mound.

Heltonfan · 11-22-2006, 07:29 PM

Wow, I missed (or forgot) that somehow. Thanks. And yes, that definitely changes things. No way he belongs on the list at this point.

wolf213 · 11-23-2006, 12:50 AM

Yup, Lindsay is a good prospect, but because of his injury concerns, he doesn't belong on this list.

Surpised that Morrillo and Herrera arn't in the list, and I would also give consideration to Young Jr. and Wimberly, and maybe Gomez too, thought it might be too early for him.

madness · 11-23-2006, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolf213

Yup, Lindsay is a good prospect, but because of his injury concerns, he doesn't belong on this list.

Surpised that Morrillo and Herrera arn't in the list, and I would also give consideration to Young Jr. and Wimberly, and maybe Gomez too, thought it might be too early for him.

Rumor has it that those guys were in the second set of 10 and all the way down to almost 20 were basically interchangable with the guys at the bottom of the top 10 list (and many of the second 10 would have made most team's top 10).

Rough paraphrasing of a rough paraphrasing, but what the heck?

RMF · 11-24-2006, 05:50 PM

If he's ever healthy, I'll bet the Rockies make him a RP.

sg8335aa · 12-01-2006, 08:02 AM

To provide a bit more detailed pharaphrasing of Goldstein's note....

The difference between our 9th rated prospect and our 18th rated prospect is minimal.....in fact he considers them interchangeable on the rankings. Not only that, but he said that any of those players would likely rate in the Top 10 of MOST OTHER ORGANIZATIONS Top Ten list.

Just an amazing testimate to the depth of our system.

Anyway.....here are those prospects.

As you know he rated Deduno 9th and Koshansky 10th.

Here are 11-18 (with no specific order stated).....Hector Gomez, Jonathan Herrera, Chris Nelson, Corey Wimberly, Eric Young Jr., Jeff Baker, Juan Morillo and Josh Sullivan.

Noticably absent was any mention of Seth Smith.

Lastly......he thinks that Dexter Fowler is in line for a breakout campaign in the offense minded California League next year. He also tabbed Chris Nelson as the "organization sleeper" which he metions is odd due to the fact that he is a 1st round pick. However, with the depth that the rockies have, he's sort of become the "forgotten man". He think that Chris Nelson will "breakout" right beside Fowler in the California League this year.

Interesting stuff.....and nice to provide us with something to tide us over until the BA list comes out in Feb.

indianadrew · 12-07-2006, 08:12 PM

i just found out that there is another hoosier that has a chance of playing for the rockies. there is a kid named david arnold from beach grove, IN. anybody heard of him? he is a pitcher who throws about 95 long inning guy.

BigRapidsJackass · 12-08-2006, 12:12 AM

John Sickels' prospect list is out now, too.

www.minorleagueball.com

I tend to give his opinions a lot of weight. He tends toward the "stats" side of things. I also like how he tries to spot development trends in a player's minor league history.

Best example: as Sickels admits, he seems to like Seth Smith more than anybody else. Smith had a big second half, and Sickels had previously commented on his emerging doubles power and plate discipline, suggesting he could be the big breakout player of '07. I'm betting he's right.

As one commenter notes, the other big news may be who's not on the list. Namely, Chris Nelson.

hiaspire · 01-31-2007, 04:32 PM

I'm still awaiting my copy in the mail, and they haven't gotten to the Rockies yet in Baseball America's top 10 team rundowns, but the Drillers gave us a sneak peak within a press release today:

Tulsa Drillers

Baseball America described the Rockies farm system as “elite” in ranking it the second best in baseball, trailing only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

1. Troy Tulowitzki-SS *
2. Franklin Morales-P ^ 07
3. Jason Hirsh-P
4. Dexter Fowler-OF ^ 07 or 08
5. Ian Stewart-3B *
6. Ubaldo Jimenez-P *
7. Greg Reynolds-P ^ 07
8. Chris Iannetta-C *
9. Jeff Baker-OF *
10. Chaz Roe-P ^ 08
11. Manny Corpas-P *
12. Juan Morillo-P *
13. Joe Koshansky-1B *
14. Jonathan Herrera-SS * ^ 07
15. Hector Gomez-IF ^ 09
16. Seth Smith-OF *
17. Samuel Deduno-P ^ 07
18. Shane Lindsay-P ^ 08
19. Chris Nelson-SS ^ 08
20. Brandon Hynick-P ^ 09
21. Anuery Rodriguez-P ^ 09
22. Corey Wimberly-2B ^ 07
23. Ching-Lung Lo-P ^ 07
24. Darren Clarke-P ^ 07
25. Alvin Colina-C *
26. Matt Miller-OF * ^ 07
27. Eric Young Jr.-2B ^ 08
28. Pedro Strop-P ^ 09
29. Andrew Johnston-P ^ 08
30. David Christensen-OF ^ 10

sg8335aa · 01-31-2007, 04:42 PM

I already have mine, so I'm happy to answer an questions you have about specific guys.

Cole Garner and Helder Velazquez were the two big omissions, however they did make Baseball America's "31st team" full of the best guys that weren't ranked.

TheIncredibleRox · 01-31-2007, 05:22 PM

Wow.

That's just damn impressive. I mean what other team wouldn't have Corpas, Morillo, or Koshansky, or Herrera in their top 10?

Or how bout Smith, Lindsay, Nelson, Young, Wimberly not in their top 15?

I'd take our 11-20 against a lot of team's 1-10.

Roxpert · 01-31-2007, 05:23 PM

Good for David Christensen in making the top 30. It will probably be the last time he is listed. Horrible 2nd round pick.

11-22-2006, 02:35 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Prospect Rankings Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus released his top 10 Rockies prospect list today: http://baseballprospectus.com/articl...articleid=5720 It's subscriber-only, so I'll pick and choose a few interesting things to share. First, the actual list: 1. Troy Tulowitzki, SS 2. Franklin Morales, LHP 3. Dexter Fowler, CF 4. Chris Iannetta, C 5. Ian Stewart, 3B 6. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP 7. Shane Lindsay, RHP 8. Greg Reynolds, RHP 9. Samuel Deduno, RHP 10. Joe Koshansky, 1B A couple oddities in there. Stewart's '06 minor league numbers translate to a .210 ABR, compared to .196 for Fowler... given that Fowler is only one year younger, and Stewart has a better track record, I'd definitely give Stewart the edge. I'd probably rank Ubaldo higher than Fowler as well; he's two years older, but three minor league levels ahead, and it's not as if he doesn't have a high ceiling. Also, as I've said in the past, I'd put Iannetta at the very top of the list, even ahead of Tulo; his numbers are just too good to ignore. And towards the bottom of the list, it's hard to see how Koshansky ranks ahead of Jeff Baker, a better hitter with more defensive value. Noteworthy commentary from the article: On Reynolds: "In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A No. 3 starter." On Fowler: "If you are looking for a breakout player in 2007, Fowler plus the California League might be the perfect combination." Last edited by Heltonfan; 11-22-2006 at 05:41 PM.

11-22-2006, 06:39 PM	#2 (permalink)
madness Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 20	Lindsay Not that Shane Lindsay hasn't been sensational (dominant even) but he has suffered a career threatening injury. I would think that the health concerns alone would prevent him from making these types of lists.

11-24-2006, 05:50 PM	#8 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 201	Lindsay If he's ever healthy, I'll bet the Rockies make him a RP.

12-01-2006, 08:02 AM	#9 (permalink)
sg8335aa Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 118	To continue.... To provide a bit more detailed pharaphrasing of Goldstein's note.... The difference between our 9th rated prospect and our 18th rated prospect is minimal.....in fact he considers them interchangeable on the rankings. Not only that, but he said that any of those players would likely rate in the Top 10 of MOST OTHER ORGANIZATIONS Top Ten list. Just an amazing testimate to the depth of our system. Anyway.....here are those prospects. As you know he rated Deduno 9th and Koshansky 10th. Here are 11-18 (with no specific order stated).....Hector Gomez, Jonathan Herrera, Chris Nelson, Corey Wimberly, Eric Young Jr., Jeff Baker, Juan Morillo and Josh Sullivan. Noticably absent was any mention of Seth Smith. Lastly......he thinks that Dexter Fowler is in line for a breakout campaign in the offense minded California League next year. He also tabbed Chris Nelson as the "organization sleeper" which he metions is odd due to the fact that he is a 1st round pick. However, with the depth that the rockies have, he's sort of become the "forgotten man". He think that Chris Nelson will "breakout" right beside Fowler in the California League this year. Interesting stuff.....and nice to provide us with something to tide us over until the BA list comes out in Feb.

12-07-2006, 08:12 PM	#10 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 538	i just found out that there is another hoosier that has a chance of playing for the rockies. there is a kid named david arnold from beach grove, IN. anybody heard of him? he is a pitcher who throws about 95 long inning guy. Last edited by indianadrew; 12-07-2006 at 09:07 PM.

11-22-2006, 07:05 PM	#3 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	I probably wouldn't include Lindsay on the top 10 list either. But my main concern is that he's still so raw (check out those walk rates; classic example of a kid with great stuff and no control over it). The injury history is definitely a strike against him, but suffice it to say that I was much more worried about that a year ago, before he returned from the labrum tear. He seems to have survived the injury without becoming any more hittable, which is a good sign.

11-22-2006, 07:29 PM	#5 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Wow, I missed (or forgot) that somehow. Thanks. And yes, that definitely changes things. No way he belongs on the list at this point.

11-23-2006, 12:50 AM	#6 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	Yup, Lindsay is a good prospect, but because of his injury concerns, he doesn't belong on this list. Surpised that Morrillo and Herrera arn't in the list, and I would also give consideration to Young Jr. and Wimberly, and maybe Gomez too, thought it might be too early for him.

12-08-2006, 12:12 AM	#11 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,124	John Sickels' prospect list is out now, too. www.minorleagueball.com I tend to give his opinions a lot of weight. He tends toward the "stats" side of things. I also like how he tries to spot development trends in a player's minor league history. Best example: as Sickels admits, he seems to like Seth Smith more than anybody else. Smith had a big second half, and Sickels had previously commented on his emerging doubles power and plate discipline, suggesting he could be the big breakout player of '07. I'm betting he's right. As one commenter notes, the other big news may be who's not on the list. Namely, Chris Nelson.

01-31-2007, 04:32 PM	#12 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	Baseball America Top 30 I'm still awaiting my copy in the mail, and they haven't gotten to the Rockies yet in Baseball America's top 10 team rundowns, but the Drillers gave us a sneak peak within a press release today: Tulsa Drillers Baseball America described the Rockies farm system as “elite” in ranking it the second best in baseball, trailing only the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. 1. Troy Tulowitzki-SS * 2. Franklin Morales-P ^ 07 3. Jason Hirsh-P 4. Dexter Fowler-OF ^ 07 or 08 5. Ian Stewart-3B * 6. Ubaldo Jimenez-P * 7. Greg Reynolds-P ^ 07 8. Chris Iannetta-C * 9. Jeff Baker-OF * 10. Chaz Roe-P ^ 08 11. Manny Corpas-P * 12. Juan Morillo-P * 13. Joe Koshansky-1B * 14. Jonathan Herrera-SS * ^ 07 15. Hector Gomez-IF ^ 09 16. Seth Smith-OF * 17. Samuel Deduno-P ^ 07 18. Shane Lindsay-P ^ 08 19. Chris Nelson-SS ^ 08 20. Brandon Hynick-P ^ 09 21. Anuery Rodriguez-P ^ 09 22. Corey Wimberly-2B ^ 07 23. Ching-Lung Lo-P ^ 07 24. Darren Clarke-P ^ 07 25. Alvin Colina-C * 26. Matt Miller-OF * ^ 07 27. Eric Young Jr.-2B ^ 08 28. Pedro Strop-P ^ 09 29. Andrew Johnston-P ^ 08 30. David Christensen-OF ^ 10

01-31-2007, 04:42 PM	#13 (permalink)
sg8335aa Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 118	I already have mine, so I'm happy to answer an questions you have about specific guys. Cole Garner and Helder Velazquez were the two big omissions, however they did make Baseball America's "31st team" full of the best guys that weren't ranked.

01-31-2007, 05:22 PM	#14 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 275	Wow. That's just damn impressive. I mean what other team wouldn't have Corpas, Morillo, or Koshansky, or Herrera in their top 10? Or how bout Smith, Lindsay, Nelson, Young, Wimberly not in their top 15? I'd take our 11-20 against a lot of team's 1-10.

01-31-2007, 05:23 PM	#15 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,024	Good for David Christensen in making the top 30. It will probably be the last time he is listed. Horrible 2nd round pick.