Monfort on the fate of Clint, Dan, and Todd

[sg8335aa]

The hot rumor in the Post this morning is that the Rockies are talking with the Red Sox about a possible Helton deal.....

Apparently the discussions are serious enough where Rockie Brass has contacted Helton and he has said he'd be willing to waive his no-trade to go to Boston.

[indianadrew]

"Speaking of religion (and since the Colts come up here sometimes due to poster geography), did anybody catch the statements made by the guys in charge at Indy? Rox take a lot of heat for religion here, but I don't think they are much different than many other examples in sports where players score touchdowns and thank God, or managers talk about team character."

the colts do not take any heat for their religious views.

"The hot rumor in the Post this morning is that the Rockies are talking with the Red Sox about a possible Helton deal....."

could you imagine getting manram?

[Heltonfan]

Manny for Helton doesn't make sense for the Red Sox. It's a lateral move for them in '07 and '08, and there's no reason for them to take on the long-term burden of Helton's contract if they're not getting any short-term benefit from it. Not to mention the complication of getting Manny to waive his no-trade clause. I'd be absolutely shocked if Manny ends up in Colorado.

If Helton does get dealt to Boston, I expect the deal to be similar to the rumored deal with the Angels (Kotchman/Aybar/Figgins or somesuch), but not quite as good for us as that one would have been. We're not getting Pedroia, because he's going to be their everyday 2B this year. I could see Helton and cash for Crisp/Youkilis and Delcarmen/Hansen...

[mets2k]

According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Rockies and Red Sox have had recent discussions about Todd Helton.

Back at the Winter Meetings a few Manny Ramirez trade rumors centered around the Red Sox acquiring the 33-year-old Helton, but now it appears the Rockies may want young relievers like Craig Hansen or Manny Delcarmen instead. Helton does have a complete no-trade clause, but according to the report would consider Boston. For any deal to get done the Rockies will have to eat a significant portion of the remaining six-year and $90.1 million contract.

Source: Denver Post

[Below C-Level]

Of course, having said that....

Helton is owed $90.1M million through 2011, which is about $18M AAV. If the Rox are willing to pay 6$MM per (AAV) then this could make a lot of sense.

In terms of the luxury tax implications for Boston, I think a package involving Coco Crisp makes sense for both clubs. The Rox need a long term CF solution and Ellsbury is all but untouchable. They also want young arms (who doesn't?)

Coco Crisp, who struggled a little last year, but wasn't healthy at any point past the first week of the season, is guaranteed $14.5 million over the next three years with a club option for 2010 ($8 million). That's cheap and he can still play.

Hansen signed a ML deal out of St. Johns that pays him $2.2 million over the next two years, at which point he's arbitration eligible, but still relatively affordable.

For the Rox, they would get just about $6 million in salary relief (AAV) over the next 5 years (slightly less when you factor in arbitration for Hansen and Crisp's club option). In addition to another $30 million or so to throw at Atkins or Holliday, they get a major upgrade in CF and a potential front line closer.

I like it. Won't happen, but I would like it...

[Heltonfan]

Ken Rosenthal weighs in

The Red Sox are in serious discussions with the Rockies about acquiring first baseman Todd Helton, but a trade hinges on how much of Helton's contract the Rockies would be willing to assume, FOXSports.com has learned.

The Rockies would receive right-hander Craig Hansen along with two other prospects, according to a major-league source.

Class AA center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the Sox's top position prospect, almost certainly is one of the Rockies' targets, but it is likely that a variety of major-and minor-league names are being exchanged.

It also is conceivable that Lowell could be included in the Helton deal, enabling the Rockies to move third baseman Garrett Atkins to first. Two sources, however, said that Lowell was not in the trade, leaving the Rockies with the possibility of shifting right fielder Brad Hawpe to first and also using John Mabry at the position.

Hansen, Ellsbury, and a third prospect? I like it. Obviously, everything depends on how much of Helton's contract we'd have to cover, but that's the kind of package that I'd like to be getting.

[Heltonfan]

The $90 million left on Helton's deal works out to $80.3 million in 2007 dollars, assuming 10% annual inflation. Subtract out $380,000 a year (league minimum salary), and Helton is being paid $78.4 million marginal dollars over the next five years. I estimated in another thread that he'll be worth 200 RAR over that time span... that puts Helton at $3.92 million per win. Remember, the going rate on the free agent market these days is $4.3m/win, so even if my projection for Helton is a bit generous, his contract is still right around what a player of his caliber ought to get on the FA market right now.

Now, of course, since we're a low-payroll team, we can't afford to pay the market rate... for a star player like Helton, we should probably be shooting for, say, $3.25 million per win. That means that, for the Rockies, Helton is overpaid by a total of $14 million over the next 5 years.

So, suppose we have to pay $30 million of Helton's contract, as C-Level suggests. In that case, the package we receive from the Red Sox would have to be worth $16 million or more for the deal to be worthwhile. I'd guess that the pre-arb years alone of Ellsbury and Hansen would be worth right around that much... add in the value of their arb years, and we come out ahead.

Of course, you're all free to quibble with the exact numbers I used there, but that's the basic outline we should use to evaluate these rumors.

[RMF]

Seriously the Yankees have no 1B. What better way to get them involved than negotiate with Boston. Boston is a Franchise we've sworn not to do business with. (But we can't keep our word)

Unfortunately George has turned everything over to Cashman. I don't see him doing a deal for Helton unless he's told to.

A Boston deal could end up being good for both sides. I think we'll have a greater portion of the risk.

Why are the Rockies just now figuring out how to trade Helton? He's probably at the lowest value of his career. Fortunately the market is bad enough that we should still be able to get out of this without O'dowd doing too much damage.

Boston has some higher ceilinged guys lower in their system. I'd like to see a trade include some of those guys.

[Roxpert]

RMF, the Yankees signed Doug Mientkiewicz to play 1b this season, and they are not looking to add salary for aging players with back histories, and in fact want to do the opposite (see the Unit).

We might be able to go back to the Angels or other unidentified teams that were interested before to see if we can get an "auction environment" going, but I think it's tough enough dealing with one team to get Helton moved.

But I thought that DOD was never going to deal with the Red Sox again since that's what he said in 2005 after the Shoppach/Bigbie deal fell through. Of course, we also once read that they would never trade Helton unless HE came to the franchise asking for a trade. When it comes to the Rockies, nothing we read is to be believed.

[RMF]

Mientkiewicz has to be one of the worst offensive starting 1B in all of baseball. But I don't think Cashman gets involved. This team needs Mark Cuban to buy it.

[Roxpert]

I almost said that to Mark when I saw him in Las Vegas at a conference two weeks ago, but since I'm not on first-name terms with hiim, I passed.

[RMF]

I'm going to pepper his blog with the suggestion. He turned one of the deadest Franchises in the NBA into a boom town. I didn't like the guy at first. Then I realized he's probably one if not the best owner in sports. He did what he had to do and what he likes to do.

I don't think he'd have too much trouble turning MLB on its head.

[Roxpert]

I think Cuban wants to own an MLB franchise, but his preference is probably a "big market" team such as the Cubs. Tribune Corp. apparently isn't looking to sell it, given its huge commitment to salaries this offseason, but who knows. At some point, Tribune may be broken up, and the Cubs are put in play.

Also hurting your cause is the simple fact that Charlie Monfort isn't looking to sell the Rockies at this point. He still thinks he can win and/or make money with this franchise, the latter being his #1 priority. Hence, Helton is on the block, not the team.

[Rankal]

ESPN states the cash discussions on the trade are done - the Rockies end up eating just under half of Helton's remaining salary. They're hung up on what prospects to send as the Rockies want Craig whatever.

[RMF]

Half the $$$ is highway robbery we'd better be getting 4-6 of their best guys.