WooHoo Second Post

wolf213 · 11-22-2006, 12:40 AM

Anyways, this might be a little hard to get used to but, I think it should be ok.

Good move today by signing Francis to a multiyear. I think its a step in the right direction, and I hope to sign Atkins soon also.

indianadrew · 11-22-2006, 06:41 AM

smooth transition here. i agree. great signing

Heltonfan · 11-22-2006, 04:46 PM

These multi-year deals to young players can be tough to evaluate, since it's tough to guess at what a player would make in arbitration. But I have been able to find one deal very comparable to Francis's.

Last winter, Dan Haren signed an extension with the A's... 4 years, $12.65 million, plus a club option for 2010 at $6.75 million. Exactly the same as what we did with Francis, locking him up through his arbitration years with a cheap option for what would be his first FA year. The dollars involved, once we adjust for inflation, are pretty comparable (salaries are increasing by an average of 10% per year); if anything, Francis is coming a little cheaper than Haren did.

And it's even better than that, because Francis looks like a better pitcher now than Haren did a year ago. Francis' ERC projection for next year is 3.85; Haren projected at 4.03 going into '06, and projects at 3.95 for '07.

Obviously, the worth of this comparison hinges on the assumption that the Haren deal was a good one (or at least a neutral one) for the A's. But I think that's a pretty reasonable assumption. The Francis deal looks very good indeed.

wolf213 · 11-23-2006, 12:52 AM

Not only is the Francis deal a good deal, I think it also sends the right message to the fans. Headlines say the rockies are spending money to lock up young players, and that this is a part of the new model, etc. Trading Jennings, although its a good idea and should be done, it will piss off a lot of the casual fans, and at least this is a step in the right direction in the PR sort of venue. I expect Atkins to get a similar deal.

Roxpert · 11-23-2006, 03:06 PM

Essentially, these Francis-type deals are what amount to "contractual compromises". They are win-wins for the franchise and the player.

For the franchise, it creates cost certainty over the life of the contract, and avoids the risk of subjecting the team to a big increase in salary that a player can gain through the arbitration process if his performance mushrooms.

For the player, it creates financial security, which is quite important for young pitchers who are never certain that their health will allow them to pitch at a high level. It's an exchange of potential future higher pay than what he got in the contract in order to secure an "acceptable" level of pay that removes the injury risk to his financial security.

The Rox had Francis under their control anyway for four more seasons, but he might have become unaffordable in the final couple years as his production improves. This takes away the risk that he becomes unaffordable, while also giving us an eminantly tradable asset in the future, should we want to rebuild with younger players.

The only real risk the franchise took is if Francis goes down with a career-threatening injury, or one that changes him as a pitcher, early on in his contract. They must feel he's not a significant injury risk....as pitchers go.

11-22-2006, 12:40 AM	#1 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 194	WooHoo Second Post Anyways, this might be a little hard to get used to but, I think it should be ok. Good move today by signing Francis to a multiyear. I think its a step in the right direction, and I hope to sign Atkins soon also. Last edited by Heltonfan; 11-22-2006 at 03:16 PM.

11-22-2006, 06:41 AM	#2 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 573	smooth transition here. i agree. great signing

11-22-2006, 04:46 PM	#3 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	These multi-year deals to young players can be tough to evaluate, since it's tough to guess at what a player would make in arbitration. But I have been able to find one deal very comparable to Francis's. Last winter, Dan Haren signed an extension with the A's... 4 years, $12.65 million, plus a club option for 2010 at $6.75 million. Exactly the same as what we did with Francis, locking him up through his arbitration years with a cheap option for what would be his first FA year. The dollars involved, once we adjust for inflation, are pretty comparable (salaries are increasing by an average of 10% per year); if anything, Francis is coming a little cheaper than Haren did. And it's even better than that, because Francis looks like a better pitcher now than Haren did a year ago. Francis' ERC projection for next year is 3.85; Haren projected at 4.03 going into '06, and projects at 3.95 for '07. Obviously, the worth of this comparison hinges on the assumption that the Haren deal was a good one (or at least a neutral one) for the A's. But I think that's a pretty reasonable assumption. The Francis deal looks very good indeed.

11-23-2006, 12:52 AM	#4 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 194	Not only is the Francis deal a good deal, I think it also sends the right message to the fans. Headlines say the rockies are spending money to lock up young players, and that this is a part of the new model, etc. Trading Jennings, although its a good idea and should be done, it will piss off a lot of the casual fans, and at least this is a step in the right direction in the PR sort of venue. I expect Atkins to get a similar deal.

11-23-2006, 03:06 PM	#5 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,059	Essentially, these Francis-type deals are what amount to "contractual compromises". They are win-wins for the franchise and the player. For the franchise, it creates cost certainty over the life of the contract, and avoids the risk of subjecting the team to a big increase in salary that a player can gain through the arbitration process if his performance mushrooms. For the player, it creates financial security, which is quite important for young pitchers who are never certain that their health will allow them to pitch at a high level. It's an exchange of potential future higher pay than what he got in the contract in order to secure an "acceptable" level of pay that removes the injury risk to his financial security. The Rox had Francis under their control anyway for four more seasons, but he might have become unaffordable in the final couple years as his production improves. This takes away the risk that he becomes unaffordable, while also giving us an eminantly tradable asset in the future, should we want to rebuild with younger players. The only real risk the franchise took is if Francis goes down with a career-threatening injury, or one that changes him as a pitcher, early on in his contract. They must feel he's not a significant injury risk....as pitchers go.