Rockies acquire Rodrigo Lopez

CSM · January 12th, 2007, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Looking to provide more experience and a proven innings eater, the Rockies acquired Baltimore starter Rodrigo Lopez today in exchange for minor leaguers Jim Miller and Jason Burch.

Lopez, 31, has spent his entire career with the Orioles, going 60-58 with a 3.72 ERA. He started opening day three of the past four seasons, but became available after losing 18 games last season and his spot in the rotation when the Orioles acquired Jaret Wright a few months ago.

Lopez was a workhorse for the Orioles, averaging 182 innings the past five years. The Rockies have been eying a veteran starter since trading Jason Jennings to the Houston Astros last month. Jennings' trade freed up approximately $4 million in payroll, which is about what Lopez will command in salary arbitration.

Miller and Burch both pitched in Double-A last season. Of the two, Miller is a more highly-regarded prospect, projected as a big league setup man down the road.

DenverPost.com - Rockies trade for Rodrigo Lopez

I'm not sure what to think of this trade.

Heltonfan · January 12th, 2007, 04:00 PM

Adam Eaton: 4.49 ERC projection, 393 IP from '04-'06... 3 years, $24.5 million
Woody Williams: 4.57 ERC projection, 495 IP from '04-'06... 2 years, $12.5 million
Rodrigo Lopez: 4.57 ERC projection, 569 IP from '04-'06... 1 year, ~$4.5 million (arb-eligible)

Needless to say, in this market, Lopez looks pretty darn good. He's a fine option to have at the back of the rotation; we now have 7 legit MLB starting pitchers, which is a nice luxury.

And we didn't give up anything significant; decent minor league relievers with mixed track records aren't exactly hard to find. If we decide to trade Lopez in July, we should be able to get back something of comparable value to Burch and Miller.

Thumbs up.

Roxpert · January 12th, 2007, 04:39 PM

I don't see anything wrong with this deal.

On the other hand, I don't see Lopez having a good season for the Rockies unless the Humidor is pegged to it's top level. The best that could be said of him is that he's a mediocre innings-eater. His long-term performance trend, though, has been on a downhill slope.

He should have a better year in 2007 than he had last season, but it won't be as good as what Jennings gave us in 2006, unless we get very lucky.

I agree with Heltonfan that the trade was a no-brainer, given the comparables and what they make. Hopefully, Lopez's arrival means that we have an ability to package another trade to get Rocco Baldelli or someone similar. We'll see.

BigRapidsJackass · January 12th, 2007, 06:18 PM

Yeah, nothing to dislike about this one. And you know me -- I'll look for any excuse to ridicule the Rockies' moves.

Too bad losing Jim Miller, but the truth is his development pretty much stalled last year. He might be able to put it together, but I think he had a little bit of arm trouble last year, mediocre numbers, and an altogether unimpressive performance in the Arizona Fall League. I'd say it's a 50/50 proposition whether he even makes it to the big leagues for more than a cup of coffee.

Lopez, on the other hand, keeps popping up on the lists of "unluckiest" pitchers last year, so he has a pretty good shot at a modest rebound. Stat geeks can now rejoice that O'Dowd has collected 2 of the Top 8 Unluckiest starters (by FIP-ERA) in all of baseball last year: Fogg and Lopez. Hey, and #7 Unluckiest Starter, Mark Redman, is still available!

Seriously, this is a pretty sensible strategy. In fact, it's just about the only sensible strategy for someone in O'Dowd's cash-strapped situation when it comes to pursuing starting pitching.

Now that we've cleared the world of all 30-something former Orioles named Lopez, where will O'Dowd go next?

GerryInCS · January 13th, 2007, 01:09 AM

I think there are a couple of roster spots available, but I think he is saving those for the end of spring training to sign more folks off the trash heap

TheIncredibleRox · January 14th, 2007, 03:46 PM

Ugh.... Lopez guarunteed a spot while Kim has to battle it out? If thats true, I'm less than thrilled.

Per this season's market, his salary is reasonable. However, ~$4.5 plus two quite live arms for basically 5th starter competition doesn't seem like a steal to me.

I'm all for the competition and depth, however Lopez doesn't seem to distinguish himself from Fogg, Buchholz, and (possibly) Lawrence for a slot behind Cook, Francis, Kim, and Hirsh. I think that's fine if our total investment were in the neighborhood of $2M, but it's at $4.5 + some potentially cheap and useful players.

Now, one thing that would make me happy, but it's a stretch; does the presence of Lopez make another starter more expendable, who we could package with Wily Tavarez and flip for a real CF?

My dream would be Tavarez and Fogg for David DeJesus. A more realistic deal might swap Buccholz for Fogg.

In any event, that seems at least semi-feasable--Dayton Moore strikes me as the type who would overrate Wily Tavares and underrate DeJesus. Their rotation sorely lacks quality depth and/or proven commodities.

I'd happily kick in an Omar Quintanilla to be named later.

I honestly think some form of that deal could be worked out.

BigRapidsJackass · January 14th, 2007, 06:48 PM

IR, you make a good point.

I think the jury's out on this trade until we figure out what kind of follow-on deals O'Dowd can make.

Somehow I hadn't really factored in Rodrigo's salary. If he really is expected to get about $4.5 million, I'm not sure he's any bargain.

I guess that answers my question about how they were planning to spend the money saved by the Jennings trade ...

The big problem is this: Kim probably should have the greatest trade value, but I really can't see anyone else taking a flyer on him as a starter. He'd probably be an o.k. fit for the Padres, Giants, or Mariners, but I'm not sure those clubs have anything good to offer in return. Fogg and Lopez himself have little value, as evidenced by the fact that the best deal the Orioles could make is for our two C-grade prospects.

So it all comes back to what I've always said. O'Dowd's mad money has now been committed to:

-- Kaz Matsui $1.5 million
-- Jamey Carrroll 2 million
-- LaTroy Hawkins 3.5 million
-- Rodrigo Lopez 4.5 million
-- Josh Fogg 2.5 million

Add it up: that's real money. 14 million bucks. Assume you had signed only Carroll and had plugged in "freely available talent" in each of the other roles instead. For example: Luis Gonzalez; David Cortes instead of Hawkins; Todd Buccholz instead of Lopez; Jamey Wright (just play along here) instead of Fogg.

Then the $12 million bucks could've brought you a real centerfielder, or a real starter, or both Eric Gagne and Dave Roberts. (Don't laugh: if Gagne starts strong, imagine what his trade value will be next year. Or what Fuentes would bring.)

So while I'm not really critical of the Lopez deal, I'm still not clear on O'Dowd's overall plan. If it involves something like IR is suggesting (pulling together a surplus of 4th/5th starters, and packaging them with Willy T. to get a real CFer) then I'm all for it. But something makes me think O'Dowd's just playing hunches here and has nothing concrete in mind.

And maybe he's about to get stuck holding this year's version of Larry Bigbie: four 5th starters that nobody wants, none of whom are well-suited to the bullpen.

Roxpert · January 15th, 2007, 12:58 PM

RotoRox, you are making a good case that the FO is a poor resource allocator. When a franchise has limited its financial resources to devote to payroll, it has to decide whether those scare funds are to be spread around a lot of mediocrity (or crap, to be blunt), or whether the money should be concentrated on one or two key holes to fill.

DOD has chosen the former, not the latter, to this point. None of the players acquired are "difference makers", and we still have a below average offensive centerfielder. Our bullpen is, quite frankly, a bit suspect given the decline in Hawkins' peripherals. I would have much rather seen a Gagne signed as you suggested.

This shapes up to be a pivotal year for the Rox. If they get ROY-type production from Tulo and Iannetta, and the rotation can approach 2006 levels of performance, the team can contend as long as everyone else does what's projected and the bullpen does well. If not, the "Gen-R" movement will be shown to be a folly since the franchise isn't spending the money needed on quality veterans to supplement what the farm is producing. Then, there will be LOTS of changes, or the franchise fan support will take another leg down.

January 13th, 2007, 01:09 AM	#5 (permalink)
GerryInCS New Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 635	I think there are a couple of roster spots available, but I think he is saving those for the end of spring training to sign more folks off the trash heap __________________ Americans aren't afraid of Mexicans, Americans are afraid that Mexicans are turning America into Mexico.

January 12th, 2007, 04:00 PM	#2 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Adam Eaton: 4.49 ERC projection, 393 IP from '04-'06... 3 years, $24.5 million Woody Williams: 4.57 ERC projection, 495 IP from '04-'06... 2 years, $12.5 million Rodrigo Lopez: 4.57 ERC projection, 569 IP from '04-'06... 1 year, ~$4.5 million (arb-eligible) Needless to say, in this market, Lopez looks pretty darn good. He's a fine option to have at the back of the rotation; we now have 7 legit MLB starting pitchers, which is a nice luxury. And we didn't give up anything significant; decent minor league relievers with mixed track records aren't exactly hard to find. If we decide to trade Lopez in July, we should be able to get back something of comparable value to Burch and Miller. Thumbs up.

January 12th, 2007, 04:39 PM	#3 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	I don't see anything wrong with this deal. On the other hand, I don't see Lopez having a good season for the Rockies unless the Humidor is pegged to it's top level. The best that could be said of him is that he's a mediocre innings-eater. His long-term performance trend, though, has been on a downhill slope. He should have a better year in 2007 than he had last season, but it won't be as good as what Jennings gave us in 2006, unless we get very lucky. I agree with Heltonfan that the trade was a no-brainer, given the comparables and what they make. Hopefully, Lopez's arrival means that we have an ability to package another trade to get Rocco Baldelli or someone similar. We'll see.

January 12th, 2007, 06:18 PM	#4 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Yeah, nothing to dislike about this one. And you know me -- I'll look for any excuse to ridicule the Rockies' moves. Too bad losing Jim Miller, but the truth is his development pretty much stalled last year. He might be able to put it together, but I think he had a little bit of arm trouble last year, mediocre numbers, and an altogether unimpressive performance in the Arizona Fall League. I'd say it's a 50/50 proposition whether he even makes it to the big leagues for more than a cup of coffee. Lopez, on the other hand, keeps popping up on the lists of "unluckiest" pitchers last year, so he has a pretty good shot at a modest rebound. Stat geeks can now rejoice that O'Dowd has collected 2 of the Top 8 Unluckiest starters (by FIP-ERA) in all of baseball last year: Fogg and Lopez. Hey, and #7 Unluckiest Starter, Mark Redman, is still available! Seriously, this is a pretty sensible strategy. In fact, it's just about the only sensible strategy for someone in O'Dowd's cash-strapped situation when it comes to pursuing starting pitching. Now that we've cleared the world of all 30-something former Orioles named Lopez, where will O'Dowd go next?

January 14th, 2007, 03:46 PM	#6 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 322	Ugh.... Lopez guarunteed a spot while Kim has to battle it out? If thats true, I'm less than thrilled. Per this season's market, his salary is reasonable. However, ~$4.5 plus two quite live arms for basically 5th starter competition doesn't seem like a steal to me. I'm all for the competition and depth, however Lopez doesn't seem to distinguish himself from Fogg, Buchholz, and (possibly) Lawrence for a slot behind Cook, Francis, Kim, and Hirsh. I think that's fine if our total investment were in the neighborhood of $2M, but it's at $4.5 + some potentially cheap and useful players. Now, one thing that would make me happy, but it's a stretch; does the presence of Lopez make another starter more expendable, who we could package with Wily Tavarez and flip for a real CF? My dream would be Tavarez and Fogg for David DeJesus. A more realistic deal might swap Buccholz for Fogg. In any event, that seems at least semi-feasable--Dayton Moore strikes me as the type who would overrate Wily Tavares and underrate DeJesus. Their rotation sorely lacks quality depth and/or proven commodities. I'd happily kick in an Omar Quintanilla to be named later. I honestly think some form of that deal could be worked out.

January 14th, 2007, 06:48 PM	#7 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	IR, you make a good point. I think the jury's out on this trade until we figure out what kind of follow-on deals O'Dowd can make. Somehow I hadn't really factored in Rodrigo's salary. If he really is expected to get about $4.5 million, I'm not sure he's any bargain. I guess that answers my question about how they were planning to spend the money saved by the Jennings trade ... The big problem is this: Kim probably should have the greatest trade value, but I really can't see anyone else taking a flyer on him as a starter. He'd probably be an o.k. fit for the Padres, Giants, or Mariners, but I'm not sure those clubs have anything good to offer in return. Fogg and Lopez himself have little value, as evidenced by the fact that the best deal the Orioles could make is for our two C-grade prospects. So it all comes back to what I've always said. O'Dowd's mad money has now been committed to: -- Kaz Matsui $1.5 million -- Jamey Carrroll 2 million -- LaTroy Hawkins 3.5 million -- Rodrigo Lopez 4.5 million -- Josh Fogg 2.5 million Add it up: that's real money. 14 million bucks. Assume you had signed only Carroll and had plugged in "freely available talent" in each of the other roles instead. For example: Luis Gonzalez; David Cortes instead of Hawkins; Todd Buccholz instead of Lopez; Jamey Wright (just play along here) instead of Fogg. Then the $12 million bucks could've brought you a real centerfielder, or a real starter, or both Eric Gagne and Dave Roberts. (Don't laugh: if Gagne starts strong, imagine what his trade value will be next year. Or what Fuentes would bring.) So while I'm not really critical of the Lopez deal, I'm still not clear on O'Dowd's overall plan. If it involves something like IR is suggesting (pulling together a surplus of 4th/5th starters, and packaging them with Willy T. to get a real CFer) then I'm all for it. But something makes me think O'Dowd's just playing hunches here and has nothing concrete in mind. And maybe he's about to get stuck holding this year's version of Larry Bigbie: four 5th starters that nobody wants, none of whom are well-suited to the bullpen.

January 15th, 2007, 12:58 PM	#8 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	RotoRox, you are making a good case that the FO is a poor resource allocator. When a franchise has limited its financial resources to devote to payroll, it has to decide whether those scare funds are to be spread around a lot of mediocrity (or crap, to be blunt), or whether the money should be concentrated on one or two key holes to fill. DOD has chosen the former, not the latter, to this point. None of the players acquired are "difference makers", and we still have a below average offensive centerfielder. Our bullpen is, quite frankly, a bit suspect given the decline in Hawkins' peripherals. I would have much rather seen a Gagne signed as you suggested. This shapes up to be a pivotal year for the Rox. If they get ROY-type production from Tulo and Iannetta, and the rotation can approach 2006 levels of performance, the team can contend as long as everyone else does what's projected and the bullpen does well. If not, the "Gen-R" movement will be shown to be a folly since the franchise isn't spending the money needed on quality veterans to supplement what the farm is producing. Then, there will be LOTS of changes, or the franchise fan support will take another leg down.