Help from SABER People

wolf213 · 01-11-2007, 04:06 PM

I am having a disagreement in one of my sim leagues about comp. picks for free agents. We have a top 15 players get a comp pick system and here is the top 15:

1.Takashi Saito
2.AJ Piereznksi
3.Mark Mulder
4.Juan Pierre
5.Moises Alou
6.Barry Bonds
7.Frank Thomas
8.Andy Pettite
9.Julio Lugo
10.Jason Schmidt
11.Carlos Lee
12.Roger Clemens
13.Nomar Garciaparra
14.Barry Zito
15.Alfonso Soriano

My problem is I had Justin Speier and was going to get a comp pick for him, however he was bumped off in favor of Mark Mulder. I want to know which players deserve to be in the Top 15 there, is Speier better then Mulder (Lilly too while your at it)

I think he is. Thanks

RockieRooter · 01-11-2007, 05:10 PM

A bigger question in my mind is why is Juan Pierre there? Even at his best I wouldn't put him on a top 15 list.

wolf213 · 01-11-2007, 05:23 PM

well yes, and just to help gauge it, its is a total reset so all RL free agents are free agents right now in the league, point is there is much better choices then Pierre.

Heltonfan · 01-11-2007, 07:08 PM

I'm tempted to launch into a rant about what it says about the human species that we are capable of producing a list in which A.J. Pierzynski is rated above Pettitte, Schmidt, and Zito, but since I'm not feeling particularly creative today, here are my RAR projections for all those guys:

1. Bonds 55 (assumes 450 PA, not that it matters because I think we can all agree that he's a wee bit better than Justin Speier)
2. Schmidt 43
3. Pettitte 40
4. Soriano 35
5. Alou 29
6. Clemens 28 (assumes 100 IP)
t7. Lugo 27
t7. Zito 27
t7. Saito 27
t7. Thomas 27 (assumes 500 PA)
11. Lee 23
12. Garciaparra 21
13. Lilly 21
14. Pierre 15
15. Pierzynski 11
16. Speier 9
17. Mulder 8 (assumes 100 IP, which may be generous)

I could see an argument for Speier over Pierzynski, maybe even over Pierre (although that's quite a stretch). And what about guys like Ohka, Thomson, Redman? You said that all of the real-life FAs are FAs in your league as well... if that's the case, then Speier clearly doesn't make the cut here. League-averageish starters are very valuable.

Also, Speier pitched substantially worse (.74 runs per 9 IP, to be precise) than his ERA indicated last year. He's hardly an elite setup guy.

rockieprogress · 01-11-2007, 09:12 PM

Just wondering HF, where does Dave Roberts project on this list?

Heltonfan · 01-11-2007, 09:19 PM

Roberts: 23 RAR. The very definition of an average everyday player.

rockieprogress · 01-11-2007, 09:56 PM

Thanks. I was wondering how people can say that SF upgraded themselves in the off-season.
It appears the 2 big trades of talent they had were both downgrades.
Schmitt over Zito, and Alou over Roberts, both seemed to me to be downgrades.

Bonds value is the same as last year, although with him being caught on a drug test the scrutiny will surely be at a higher level.
Him blaming his positive on Mark Sweeney, as though its perfectly acceptable to go into another players locker and take stuff is laughable.

His value in replacement is moot if he's replacing himself IMO.

wolf213 · 01-11-2007, 10:57 PM

Thanks for the numbers HF, I feel a little better now. Just curious where you get your RAR numbers at, I am involved in 2 leagues and would like to be able to use RAR to look at potentail free agent targets and trades.

Overall my team is shaping out well, I am the blue jays and I made some huge overhalls but I think its all for the better:

1. Hill 2b
2. Rollins SS
3. Rios RF
4. Burrell LF
5. Baldelli CF
6. Lowell 3b
7. Lind 1b
8. Varitek C
9. T. Walker DH

Pitching is a bit thin:

1. R. Johnson
2. T. Wakefield
3. Taubenheim
4. Fossum
5a. Marcum
5b. Jackson, Edwin
5c. Banks, Josh
5d. Rodriguez, Wandy

And Pen:

League
Frasor
Condrey
Tallet
Romero
Downs

Anyways I also have another team as well, and well its the Royals and they arn't as good.

Vidro 2b
Burke SS
Cuddyer RF
Blake 1b
Sweeney DH
Cirillo 3b
Snelling LF
Cruz Jr. CF
Fasano C

Bench:

Nix, L
Guzman, C
Maier, M
Other F.A

Rotation:

Lieber
Kim, BY
Snyder, Kyle
Pineiro
Gobble

Pen:

Corpas
Grilli
Klob.

Anyways, really hope you don't mind this hear, looking for advice and opinions and I figure since discussion is slow during the dog days of January and Feb. might as well start some conversation up somehow. Leagues are basic Diamond Mind Keeper leagues with set salary caps for each team's mark (ie new york has more money to play with then the KC), and we all have a minor league reserve roster as well.

Advice? Ideas? Wanna tell me how much my Royals Suck??? Shoot away. Thanks everyone.

Heltonfan · 01-12-2007, 12:02 AM

Given what you had to work with in terms of initial rosters, I'm much more impressed with your Royals than I am with your Blue Jays. I see a bunch of nice assets there (Burke, Cuddyer, Snelling, Kim, Corpas), and it doesn't look like you gave up very much (although I hope you got good value for DeJesus).

The Jays, on the other hand... that's a pretty nice lineup, but "pitching is a bit thin" is one heck of an understatement. Your one really good starting pitcher is 43 years old and doesn't exactly have a clean bill of health... and that bullpen is a disaster. Without knowing exactly how these things transpired, I'd say that you went a bit overboard on the roster overhaul; out of curiosity, what did you get for Halladay?

wolf213 · 01-12-2007, 12:07 AM

I like to trade, and it might be my downfall. DeJesus was traded when I first joined the league and to this day it was probably the worst trade I have made.

Blue Jays get:

Gavin Floyd
Clay Condrey
Pat Burrell
Jimmy Rollins
Welison Baez

Phillies get:

Roy Halladay
Troy Glays
Reed Johnson

Was the Holladay deal.

wolf213 · 01-12-2007, 12:16 AM

Also if you where wondering the starting Roster I had when I took over for the royals was:

DeJesus
Harvey
Guiel
Berroa
Sweeney
Larson
Estrada
Stairs
Lindon
Tonis
Mathews Jr.
Gotay
A. Gomez

Pitching

Seanez
Tolar
Appier
Adfielt
Snyder
Gobble
R. Hernadez
Bukvich
Vasquez
Leskanic
Field
MacDougal
Greinke

And other worthless garbage.

wolf213 · 02-07-2007, 05:26 PM

For the people who where following this thread, free agency has pretty much ended in my two leagues, and this should be my final roster going into the season with both of my teams:

Toronto:

PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 5:33 am Post subject: AL East - lineups and predictions Reply with quote
1. Aaron Hill 2b
2. Jimmy Rollins SS
3. Alexis Rios RF
4. Pat Burrell LF
5. Rocco Baldelli CF
6. David Dellicci DH
7. Adam Lind 1b
8. Russel Branyan 3b
9. Jason Varitek C

Bench
Cody Ross OF
Jason Phillips C
Rob Cosby IF
Alex Gonzalez IF
Franklin Gutierrez OF

Starting Rotation

1. Greg Maddux
2. Claudio Vargas
3. Mark Redman
4. Scot Baker
5. Cassey Fossum

Bullpen

Brandon League CL
Jason Frasor SU
Scot Downs SU
Clay Condrey MR
Brain Tallet MR
Davis Romero LR

Kansas City

1. Vidro 2b
2. Burke SS
3. Cuddyer RF
4. Norton 1b
5. Sweeney DH
6. Lowell 3b
7. Snelling LF
8. Cruz CF
9. Green C

Bench:

Cirillo UT
Biggio UT
Marrero C/UT
Williams OF

Wright, Jaret
Lohse, Kyle
Kim, Byung-Hyun
Tejada, Robinson
Josh Fogg SP

Bullpen:

Corpas
Accardo
Klob
Grilli
Gobble
Pineiro
K. Snyder

Thoughs and critique would be wonderful.

01-11-2007, 04:06 PM	#1 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	Help from SABER People I am having a disagreement in one of my sim leagues about comp. picks for free agents. We have a top 15 players get a comp pick system and here is the top 15: 1.Takashi Saito 2.AJ Piereznksi 3.Mark Mulder 4.Juan Pierre 5.Moises Alou 6.Barry Bonds 7.Frank Thomas 8.Andy Pettite 9.Julio Lugo 10.Jason Schmidt 11.Carlos Lee 12.Roger Clemens 13.Nomar Garciaparra 14.Barry Zito 15.Alfonso Soriano My problem is I had Justin Speier and was going to get a comp pick for him, however he was bumped off in favor of Mark Mulder. I want to know which players deserve to be in the Top 15 there, is Speier better then Mulder (Lilly too while your at it) I think he is. Thanks

01-11-2007, 07:08 PM	#4 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	I'm tempted to launch into a rant about what it says about the human species that we are capable of producing a list in which A.J. Pierzynski is rated above Pettitte, Schmidt, and Zito, but since I'm not feeling particularly creative today, here are my RAR projections for all those guys: 1. Bonds 55 (assumes 450 PA, not that it matters because I think we can all agree that he's a wee bit better than Justin Speier) 2. Schmidt 43 3. Pettitte 40 4. Soriano 35 5. Alou 29 6. Clemens 28 (assumes 100 IP) t7. Lugo 27 t7. Zito 27 t7. Saito 27 t7. Thomas 27 (assumes 500 PA) 11. Lee 23 12. Garciaparra 21 13. Lilly 21 14. Pierre 15 15. Pierzynski 11 16. Speier 9 17. Mulder 8 (assumes 100 IP, which may be generous) I could see an argument for Speier over Pierzynski, maybe even over Pierre (although that's quite a stretch). And what about guys like Ohka, Thomson, Redman? You said that all of the real-life FAs are FAs in your league as well... if that's the case, then Speier clearly doesn't make the cut here. League-averageish starters are very valuable. Also, Speier pitched substantially worse (.74 runs per 9 IP, to be precise) than his ERA indicated last year. He's hardly an elite setup guy. Last edited by Heltonfan; 01-11-2007 at 07:10 PM.

01-11-2007, 05:10 PM	#2 (permalink)
RockieRooter Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 62	A bigger question in my mind is why is Juan Pierre there? Even at his best I wouldn't put him on a top 15 list.

01-11-2007, 05:23 PM	#3 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	well yes, and just to help gauge it, its is a total reset so all RL free agents are free agents right now in the league, point is there is much better choices then Pierre.

01-11-2007, 09:12 PM	#5 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 183	Just wondering HF, where does Dave Roberts project on this list?

01-11-2007, 09:19 PM	#6 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Roberts: 23 RAR. The very definition of an average everyday player.

01-11-2007, 09:56 PM	#7 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 183	Thanks. I was wondering how people can say that SF upgraded themselves in the off-season. It appears the 2 big trades of talent they had were both downgrades. Schmitt over Zito, and Alou over Roberts, both seemed to me to be downgrades. Bonds value is the same as last year, although with him being caught on a drug test the scrutiny will surely be at a higher level. Him blaming his positive on Mark Sweeney, as though its perfectly acceptable to go into another players locker and take stuff is laughable. His value in replacement is moot if he's replacing himself IMO.

01-11-2007, 10:57 PM	#8 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	Thanks for the numbers HF, I feel a little better now. Just curious where you get your RAR numbers at, I am involved in 2 leagues and would like to be able to use RAR to look at potentail free agent targets and trades. Overall my team is shaping out well, I am the blue jays and I made some huge overhalls but I think its all for the better: 1. Hill 2b 2. Rollins SS 3. Rios RF 4. Burrell LF 5. Baldelli CF 6. Lowell 3b 7. Lind 1b 8. Varitek C 9. T. Walker DH Pitching is a bit thin: 1. R. Johnson 2. T. Wakefield 3. Taubenheim 4. Fossum 5a. Marcum 5b. Jackson, Edwin 5c. Banks, Josh 5d. Rodriguez, Wandy And Pen: League Frasor Condrey Tallet Romero Downs Anyways I also have another team as well, and well its the Royals and they arn't as good. Vidro 2b Burke SS Cuddyer RF Blake 1b Sweeney DH Cirillo 3b Snelling LF Cruz Jr. CF Fasano C Bench: Nix, L Guzman, C Maier, M Other F.A Rotation: Lieber Kim, BY Snyder, Kyle Pineiro Gobble Pen: Corpas Grilli Klob. Anyways, really hope you don't mind this hear, looking for advice and opinions and I figure since discussion is slow during the dog days of January and Feb. might as well start some conversation up somehow. Leagues are basic Diamond Mind Keeper leagues with set salary caps for each team's mark (ie new york has more money to play with then the KC), and we all have a minor league reserve roster as well. Advice? Ideas? Wanna tell me how much my Royals Suck??? Shoot away. Thanks everyone.

01-12-2007, 12:02 AM	#9 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Given what you had to work with in terms of initial rosters, I'm much more impressed with your Royals than I am with your Blue Jays. I see a bunch of nice assets there (Burke, Cuddyer, Snelling, Kim, Corpas), and it doesn't look like you gave up very much (although I hope you got good value for DeJesus). The Jays, on the other hand... that's a pretty nice lineup, but "pitching is a bit thin" is one heck of an understatement. Your one really good starting pitcher is 43 years old and doesn't exactly have a clean bill of health... and that bullpen is a disaster. Without knowing exactly how these things transpired, I'd say that you went a bit overboard on the roster overhaul; out of curiosity, what did you get for Halladay?

01-12-2007, 12:07 AM	#10 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	I like to trade, and it might be my downfall. DeJesus was traded when I first joined the league and to this day it was probably the worst trade I have made. Blue Jays get: Gavin Floyd Clay Condrey Pat Burrell Jimmy Rollins Welison Baez Phillies get: Roy Halladay Troy Glays Reed Johnson Was the Holladay deal.

01-12-2007, 12:16 AM	#11 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	Also if you where wondering the starting Roster I had when I took over for the royals was: DeJesus Harvey Guiel Berroa Sweeney Larson Estrada Stairs Lindon Tonis Mathews Jr. Gotay A. Gomez Pitching Seanez Tolar Appier Adfielt Snyder Gobble R. Hernadez Bukvich Vasquez Leskanic Field MacDougal Greinke And other worthless garbage.

02-07-2007, 05:26 PM	#12 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 190	For the people who where following this thread, free agency has pretty much ended in my two leagues, and this should be my final roster going into the season with both of my teams: Toronto: PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 5:33 am Post subject: AL East - lineups and predictions Reply with quote 1. Aaron Hill 2b 2. Jimmy Rollins SS 3. Alexis Rios RF 4. Pat Burrell LF 5. Rocco Baldelli CF 6. David Dellicci DH 7. Adam Lind 1b 8. Russel Branyan 3b 9. Jason Varitek C Bench Cody Ross OF Jason Phillips C Rob Cosby IF Alex Gonzalez IF Franklin Gutierrez OF Starting Rotation 1. Greg Maddux 2. Claudio Vargas 3. Mark Redman 4. Scot Baker 5. Cassey Fossum Bullpen Brandon League CL Jason Frasor SU Scot Downs SU Clay Condrey MR Brain Tallet MR Davis Romero LR Kansas City 1. Vidro 2b 2. Burke SS 3. Cuddyer RF 4. Norton 1b 5. Sweeney DH 6. Lowell 3b 7. Snelling LF 8. Cruz CF 9. Green C Bench: Cirillo UT Biggio UT Marrero C/UT Williams OF Wright, Jaret Lohse, Kyle Kim, Byung-Hyun Tejada, Robinson Josh Fogg SP Bullpen: Corpas Accardo Klob Grilli Gobble Pineiro K. Snyder Thoughs and critique would be wonderful.