2007 Payroll: What Am I Missing?

BigRapidsJackass · January 2nd, 2007, 10:35 PM

From the Denver Post in October:

http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_4685354

"On-field" payroll was expected to be $52 million for 2007.

Roxhead has done a nice job keeping track:

Rox Head.com

With 22 of 25 roster spots filled, roxhead adds it up to $38,831,000.

That's with JJ off the books, and minimum (or near minimum) salary guys filling in the gaps.

So there's a $13 million gap.

Part of that is Holliday. Roxhead pencils him in at $500,000. Expect him to get about $3.5 million, maybe up to $4.5 million in arbitration. Let's call it 4.5.

So that leaves us with a $9 million gap.

Everyone expects Josh Fogg to sign, maybe for $2.5 million. (It better not be more, since you could just bring Jamey Wright back for a fraction of that.)

So there's a $6.5 million gap. Taylor Buchholz or Jason Hirsh or Brian Lawrence or that Mexican League guy or somebody else will be the 5th starter. So that's anywhere between the league minimum and $1.5 million at the absolute tops.

That leaves at least $5 million. In other words, that leaves the money saved by dealing JJ.

And unless I'm missing something, there's no plan to spend it on on-the-field MLB talent in 2007.

Rockies fans, you've been had ... again.

Roxpert · January 2nd, 2007, 11:08 PM

I think you're premature, RotoRox. If the gap is $5 million, that could easily be spent by signing two mediocre free agents to $2.5 million salaries each.

There are still over 80 available free agents on the market that will be signed (i.e. this doesn't count the Vinny Castillas who are retiring). Go to the free agent tracker at ESPN.com to see for yourself. That means that the average MLB team will sign 2.6 free agents between now and Spring Training.

I figure we will sign two of them, or possibly three, and spend the $5 million. It's anyone's guess as to which free agents we will sign, but I'm talking about more than just NRIs here. Note also that the 40 man roster has two openings. Alternatively, we could make a trade to ugprade CF and spend the money that way. If we don't do any of this, and go into the season $5 mil. short, then you will be right. But I'll withhold judgment for now.

BigRapidsJackass · January 2nd, 2007, 11:38 PM

Maybe.

Looking through the numbers, I guess Jamey Carroll is due for a raise, too.

So there may be $4.5 million left.

So tell me which scenario is less depressing:

1. You trade JJ and pocket the savings.
2. You're working on trading JJ, and will realize the $5 million salary savings for 2007. You add that to your other discretionary spending money (after accounting for what it'll take to re-sign Holliday and Torrealba) -- that's about $8 million. With that $13 million to work with, you manage to keep/acquire:

The sure things/done deals:

-- 2 middle/utility infielders (Matsui/Carroll): 3 million total
-- a 34 year old setup man (Hawkins) with a 4 K/9 IP rate last year: 3.5 million
-- a 5th starter (Fogg) who actually underperformed Jamey Wright ($650,000) last year: 2.5 million
-- a 36 year old replacement level middle reliever (Martin): .8 million

The likely things:

-- a totally useless 36 year old former catcher who cannot catch anymore, can't play another position, and may block the progress of your best prospect (Javy Lopez): 1.5 million
-- a middle reliever who is somewhat worse than the already unimpressive Chris Reitsma (since Reitsma himself is apparently too expensive): 1.5 million

And that's probably it.

Yeah, I'm flogging a dead horse.

Standard response to this year's free agent market: "It's outrageous, a guy like Gary Mathews Jr. getting $10 million a year."

Better point: "It's outrageous, spending $13 million on an ugly assemblage of scrap heap guys like Fogg, Matsui, Lopez, Hawkins, Martin, and the Poor Man's Chris Reitsma."

Give me Sarge Jr., Jamey Carroll, and a bunch of non-roster invitees anyday rather than this pile of crap. Slightly better than league average guys getting paid like stars is one definition of "overpriced." Another definition is completely useless guys who would likely be outperformed by freely available talent being paid like useful major league contributors.

CSM · January 3rd, 2007, 12:05 AM

That's all I have to contribute to this thread.

Assuming the Rockies sign Brian Lawrence for around $2 million and a few more mediocre free agents for another $2 million, it seems likely that the extra $5 million freed up by the Jennings trade will be pocketed by the Monforts.

rockieprogress · January 3rd, 2007, 12:08 AM

I got it...

Erstad for the $5M

Now THAT would be depressing!!!

Can we please follow what Roxpert is saying on this one. Its still too early to start freaking out about who will/who won't make the team, and what will become of the assumed JJ salary windfall.
Personally, I don't think they're done trying to get a CF, and think DOD might empty the barn trying to save his job. I don't think a run at Baldelli has been ruled out yet, and I believe that the FO is probably weighing how much they can trade away VS how many of the legitimate prospects need to be kept as replacements for the impending exodus to FA.
Should they trade away Stewart if they think Atkins will leave in a few years?
Obviously, the answer is no. But do they think the franchise is going to pony up and pay Atkins what he believes he deserves, thereby making Stewart tradeable (with a couple of young pitchers) for someone like Baldelli.

With one year to prove they're on the right track, its anybodys guess whether they'll bend from the path they've followed, or do what should be done, which I believe is not trading away the future.

I'm glad I don't have to make the decision, as I would probably trade for Baldelli and hope the only player I lost to FA was Holliday.

January 2nd, 2007, 10:35 PM	#1 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	2007 Payroll: What Am I Missing? From the Denver Post in October: http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_4685354 "On-field" payroll was expected to be $52 million for 2007. Roxhead has done a nice job keeping track: Rox Head.com With 22 of 25 roster spots filled, roxhead adds it up to $38,831,000. That's with JJ off the books, and minimum (or near minimum) salary guys filling in the gaps. So there's a $13 million gap. Part of that is Holliday. Roxhead pencils him in at $500,000. Expect him to get about $3.5 million, maybe up to $4.5 million in arbitration. Let's call it 4.5. So that leaves us with a $9 million gap. Everyone expects Josh Fogg to sign, maybe for $2.5 million. (It better not be more, since you could just bring Jamey Wright back for a fraction of that.) So there's a $6.5 million gap. Taylor Buchholz or Jason Hirsh or Brian Lawrence or that Mexican League guy or somebody else will be the 5th starter. So that's anywhere between the league minimum and $1.5 million at the absolute tops. That leaves at least $5 million. In other words, that leaves the money saved by dealing JJ. And unless I'm missing something, there's no plan to spend it on on-the-field MLB talent in 2007. Rockies fans, you've been had ... again.

January 3rd, 2007, 12:05 AM	#4 (permalink)
CSM Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 33	That's all I have to contribute to this thread. Assuming the Rockies sign Brian Lawrence for around $2 million and a few more mediocre free agents for another $2 million, it seems likely that the extra $5 million freed up by the Jennings trade will be pocketed by the Monforts. Last edited by CSM; January 3rd, 2007 at 12:08 AM.

January 2nd, 2007, 11:08 PM	#2 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,082	I think you're premature, RotoRox. If the gap is $5 million, that could easily be spent by signing two mediocre free agents to $2.5 million salaries each. There are still over 80 available free agents on the market that will be signed (i.e. this doesn't count the Vinny Castillas who are retiring). Go to the free agent tracker at ESPN.com to see for yourself. That means that the average MLB team will sign 2.6 free agents between now and Spring Training. I figure we will sign two of them, or possibly three, and spend the $5 million. It's anyone's guess as to which free agents we will sign, but I'm talking about more than just NRIs here. Note also that the 40 man roster has two openings. Alternatively, we could make a trade to ugprade CF and spend the money that way. If we don't do any of this, and go into the season $5 mil. short, then you will be right. But I'll withhold judgment for now.

January 2nd, 2007, 11:38 PM	#3 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Maybe. Looking through the numbers, I guess Jamey Carroll is due for a raise, too. So there may be $4.5 million left. So tell me which scenario is less depressing: 1. You trade JJ and pocket the savings. 2. You're working on trading JJ, and will realize the $5 million salary savings for 2007. You add that to your other discretionary spending money (after accounting for what it'll take to re-sign Holliday and Torrealba) -- that's about $8 million. With that $13 million to work with, you manage to keep/acquire: The sure things/done deals: -- 2 middle/utility infielders (Matsui/Carroll): 3 million total -- a 34 year old setup man (Hawkins) with a 4 K/9 IP rate last year: 3.5 million -- a 5th starter (Fogg) who actually underperformed Jamey Wright ($650,000) last year: 2.5 million -- a 36 year old replacement level middle reliever (Martin): .8 million The likely things: -- a totally useless 36 year old former catcher who cannot catch anymore, can't play another position, and may block the progress of your best prospect (Javy Lopez): 1.5 million -- a middle reliever who is somewhat worse than the already unimpressive Chris Reitsma (since Reitsma himself is apparently too expensive): 1.5 million And that's probably it. Yeah, I'm flogging a dead horse. Standard response to this year's free agent market: "It's outrageous, a guy like Gary Mathews Jr. getting $10 million a year." Better point: "It's outrageous, spending $13 million on an ugly assemblage of scrap heap guys like Fogg, Matsui, Lopez, Hawkins, Martin, and the Poor Man's Chris Reitsma." Give me Sarge Jr., Jamey Carroll, and a bunch of non-roster invitees anyday rather than this pile of crap. Slightly better than league average guys getting paid like stars is one definition of "overpriced." Another definition is completely useless guys who would likely be outperformed by freely available talent being paid like useful major league contributors.

January 3rd, 2007, 12:08 AM	#5 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 183	I got it... Erstad for the $5M Now THAT would be depressing!!! Can we please follow what Roxpert is saying on this one. Its still too early to start freaking out about who will/who won't make the team, and what will become of the assumed JJ salary windfall. Personally, I don't think they're done trying to get a CF, and think DOD might empty the barn trying to save his job. I don't think a run at Baldelli has been ruled out yet, and I believe that the FO is probably weighing how much they can trade away VS how many of the legitimate prospects need to be kept as replacements for the impending exodus to FA. Should they trade away Stewart if they think Atkins will leave in a few years? Obviously, the answer is no. But do they think the franchise is going to pony up and pay Atkins what he believes he deserves, thereby making Stewart tradeable (with a couple of young pitchers) for someone like Baldelli. With one year to prove they're on the right track, its anybodys guess whether they'll bend from the path they've followed, or do what should be done, which I believe is not trading away the future. I'm glad I don't have to make the decision, as I would probably trade for Baldelli and hope the only player I lost to FA was Holliday.