10 Good Things that Happened in 2008

[BigRapidsJackass]

I'm thinking toward 2009. Here's the positives from this year (and yes, there are some) going forward:

1. Ubaldo Jimenez took a big step forward. He now looks like a potential ace again, perhaps as soon as next year.

2. Chris Iannetta established himself as a starter. I haven't looked at NL catcher averages, but he's almost certainly above average right now, with the potential to get a bit better. Catcher problem finally solved.

3. Jeff Baker established himself as a possible 2B solution.

4. Ian Stewart reestablished his blue chip prospect status.

5. Clint Barmes reestablished himself as a useful MLB player.

6. Nobody's noticed given his awful start, but Manny Corpas is just fine.

7. Aaron Cook has handled the job of better than average innings eater very nicely, thank you.

8. Jorge de la Rosa has resurrected his career. He'll be the Jeremy Affeldt of 2009.

9. Taylor Buchholz is a very good short reliever.

10. [on this one I'm guessing] Dan O'Dowd has learned his lesson: expensive "insurance policies" like Kip Wells and Yorvit Torrealba are far worse than no insurance at all.

EDIT:

How about:

11. Ryan Spilborghs showed he is no fluke, and he will be a major contributor somewhere in the field in 2009.

[HoyaRoxFan]

Viz seems to have righted his ship as well, meaning the bullpen starts with Manny-T-Buck-Viz next year.

Also, Taveras setting the franchise SB record has to increase his trade value in the offseason.

I suspect you're right that O'Dowd will have learned his lesson about expensive "insurance" offseason acquisitions, but I also suspect that whatever we get from moving Taveras and/or Torrealba will be the biggest change made, unless Hurdle takes a hike.

Meanwhile, finding spots for Atkins/Helton/Stewart, Baker/Barmes, and Holliday/Hawpe/Spilly/Smith will be quite a challenge for whoever is managing, because I suspect O'Dowd has not yet learned to know when to hold 'em/know when to fold 'em. Atkins or Holliday don't get moved until August. Not buying insurance will probably mean they stay in house on all fronts to start the year.

[wolf213]

On the Other hand with regaurds to Willy, I'm sure that there are at least 28 other teams out there that realize that even if Willy steals 100 bases, he's a worthless player if his OBP is around .300

Here is what I can pull out as positives of this year:

1. Seth Smith is looking like he has a decent shot at becoming a productive player in his career

2. Dexter Fowler really took a leap forward this year and can push for a starting job next year.

3. Spilly and Stewart are making it appear that the loss of Atkins and/or Holliday won't be as bad as it might initially seem.

4. Brad Hawpe continues to be the most underrated run producer on this team

5. Hurdle has to be close to being fired.... given how talented this team is and how bad they have underperformed, he has to be on his way out.


Here is what we need to do for the rest of the year...

1. Call up Fowler give him the starts in CF to see if he's ready. Also use Seth Smith at least 3 or 4 times starts a week to see what we have.

2. Give Baker the majority starts at 2b and see if he can stick.

3. Keep Atkins at 1st, and Stewart at 3rd

4. Call up Register and Weathers and cut the dead weight in the bullpen like Herges.

Starting in 2009 I think we might be able to set up pretty well depending on what happens in the offseason... my guess is the Rockies will make a run at signing Holiday and will Trade Atkins. Helton needs to consider retirement but he won't, and Stewart has nothing else to gain from AAA, leaving Atkins as the odd man out. But here's a potential lineup for 2009

1. Fowler CF
2. Helton 1b
3. Holiday LF
4. Hawpe RF
5. Ianetta C
6. Stewart 3b
7. Tulo SS
8. Baker 2b

1. Cook
2. Jiminez
3. Francis
4. Starter from an Atkins Trade
5. Winner of Reynolds/Morales/Hirsh/Hernandez/De La Rosa

CL: Corpas - I think he's back
SU: Bucholtz
MR: Viz
MR: Weathers
MR: Speier
MR: Register
LR: De La Rosa

[BigRapidsJackass]

Good ideas, Wolf.

I think I'll have to start a bad things thread to cover the obvious problem areas.

I'm pretty happy with the bullpen going into '09: Manny/Buchholz/de la Rosa (I assume his future is in the bullpen, where he appears comfortable)/Vizcaino/maybe Grilli. You'd like to add a reasonably priced veteran. Actually, in a little-noticed signing O'Dowd picked up Oscar Villareal, whose arm was destroyed by overuse by the D'backs. He's coming off surgery and is a possible rebound candidate. Things will look even better if Weathers or Morillo (or even Register) show MLB readiness. All in all, with the other problems this club has, spending additional big bucks on the bullpen would be ill-advised.

I agree with giving Seth Smith more playing time. Nothing to lose there, particularly if he's competent in CF.

As for Willy: Yes, he's useless at the plate. In fact, he's one of the worst regular offensive players in baseball. But I do have to say he's taken a major step forward in his base stealing this year. Remember how he never, ever, ever went on the first pitch? How he had zero confidence going against lefty pitchers? For whatever reason, that seemed to change when Spilly went on the DL and Willy became the full-time CFer again. He now seems to be supremely confident -- finally the kind of guy who can take the bag when the whole world knows he's going. That still doesn't make him a good offensive player, but some good clubs could use an additional threat like him as a part timer/pinch runner.

Atkins has been a disappointment as far as I'm concerned. His defensive stats at 3B seem much improved this year. But the problem is this: according to BP, he's only about 7 runs above average offensively this year. For a corner infielder (particularly a first baseman now), that is nothing to get excited about. Most other teams probably recognize that, too, meaning the return for him in a trade would be pretty meager. And, of course, meaning that you'd really like to have more production out of 1B/3B than Atkins and a hobbled Helton. That's a huge problem going forward.

Hawpe still seems to me to be the best trade candidate. After a slow start, he's putting together numbers just like last year, so his value should be high. Those aggregate offensive stats mask a couple big problems: he's still not proficient against lefties (in fact, Spilly is clearly a better choice to start against lefties), and his defensive range numbers are awful. That's partly offset by his arm, but still: we lose with him defensively, making his total value to the club less than it appears. Of course, he's a natural first baseman, so if Helton can't go, moving Hawpe to 1B is also an option.

As for Fowler: I can't believe he's ready to go now. I think he'll get a September call-up (and I wish I could watch Olympic baseball instead of Olympic beach volleyball), and we may get a better handle on his readiness then. At least some AAA time is almost a certainty.

[Heltonfan]

Chris Iannetta established himself as a starter. I haven't looked at NL catcher averages, but he's almost certainly above average right now.

.286 ABR. That's above average at any position. He's become our second-best position player.

3. Jeff Baker established himself as a possible 2B solution.

Yep, but nothing more than that. 2B remains the only position at which we don't have either an average-or-better regular or a top prospect, and therefore the position at which it makes the most sense to seek help. In other words, if Baker turns out to be useful, that's cool, but if we have a chance to sign Mark Ellis, we need to do it.

Anyway, we haven't actually played that badly this year (.516 component winning percentage), which means that we're really no worse off going into '09 than we were going into '08. Using 2009 projections for all the players, our current roster (minus Fuentes) works out to an 82-win team. Swap Atkins for a league-average starter, and we improve by a win and a half. Assume that the projections are wrong in think that Ubaldo will regress, and that's another win and a half. Sign Ellis, and we're up to 88 wins. At which point it becomes obvious that keeping Holliday is the way to go.

But if we don't get to that 87-88 win level... what's the tipping point, at which it makes sense to trade Holliday? 85? 83? 81? I don't know, and I don't know how to go about answering the question. But my gut feeling is that it's somewhere around 84, i.e. right where we'll probably be.

I'm pretty happy with the bullpen going into '09.

Yep, me too. Corpas is back (incidentally, he's now pretty much hitting his preseason projection dead-on), Buchholz has emerged, Grilli has been a really nice surprise, Vizcaino isn't completely worthless... that's a solid group. Now if Weathers can just stop walking 6 guys per 9 innings and start making me look stupid, we'll really have something.

Hawpe still seems to me to be the best trade candidate.

I've got three problems with this idea. One, Hawpe's defensive numbers are indeed atrocious - but that's just for this year. Defensive numbers require multi-year weighted averages and projections every bit as much as offensive numbers do (probably more, actually). In other words, Hawpe 2008 = Atkins 2007, and while he certainly projects as a below average defender, he's not a Mannyesque disaster out there. Two, Hawpe is already signed to a nice multi-year deal, and Atkins isn't. Three, the guy who would replace Atkins (Stewart) is better than the guys who would replace Hawpe (Smith/Fowler... Spilborghs doesn't count here, because he'll have a spot regardless, unless he's stuck behind Willy again, in which case there's really no point in even playing out the season).

Atkins to the Twins makes a ton of sense, and they've got plenty of pitching to offer. Cleveland would be a logical destination as well.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Yep, but nothing more than that. 2B remains the only position at which we don't have either an average-or-better regular or a top prospect, and therefore the position at which it makes the most sense to seek help. In other words, if Baker turns out to be useful, that's cool, but if we have a chance to sign Mark Ellis, we need to do it.

I'd add to that by pointing out that Helton appears to be very far from a sure thing going into '09 (even if he can get himself onto the field, that may only mean we get Helton '08, if that). Baker could be a worthwhile platoon-mate there, but A) Koshansky is not going to be any sort of answer, and B) Finding a .850 OPS first baseman (or one who can produce that as the dominant half of a platoon) on or near the waiver wire ought to be a cinch.

Moral of the story: Baker should have no significant bearing on Ellis or any other 2B solution.

Our most redundant players who ought to have the most trade value:
1. Atkins
2. Taveras
3. A case could be made for Hawpe

I would be inclined to put Franklin Morales on that list, especially in recognition of the fact that '09 appears to be time to 'go for it.' But I'm reluctant because, while I think we'd still get a nice return, we're definitely selling low there. But if he's the sticking point in receiving a marquee player (one who adds ~2 wins or more to our current projection), I'm all over it.

On the opposite end of the same spectrum: I don't think Buchholz' value could ever get higher (unless he falls into the closer's roll next year, pitches 90% as well, and receives 4x the accolades). If this team had consistently demonstrated the ability to find the Grant Balfours and Edwar Ramirez's of the world (which is far from rocket science), I'd love to flip Buc for something of big value (which teams love to pay for late-innings help). Since we haven't demonstrated that ability, I'm afraid we have to hang onto Buc because the alternatives would be too poor.

[BigRapidsJackass]

IR, the expectation has to be that you'll get little from Helton next year. The Post today did a story on Don Mattingly and his decline when his back started hurting, and right now Mattingly's last 3 years

Don Mattingly Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com

seems like a best-case scenario for Helton.

But I agree with you: it really shouldn't be too tough to find someone to fill in and give you reasonably good 1B production when Helton is out.

As for trading prospects like Morales: I guess we're now really happy we held onto Stewart. But then again: fans shouldn't forget that in retrospect the Helton to Red Sox deal collapsed over the Red Sox refusal to give up the great Manny del Carmen ... or was it our refusal to take on the one-year of Mike Lowell? That deal would be looking pretty good for us right about now.

[Heltonfan]

But if he's the sticking point in receiving a marquee player (one who adds ~2 wins or more to our current projection), I'm all over it.

Absolutely. And, given that the trade value of prospects seems to have gone up recently (see all of this year's July trades except for the Casey Blake comedy), we might indeed be able to pull off a deal like that using Morales rather than Stewart or Fowler. I wouldn't have believed it last winter, but it seems possible now.

Of course, the list of marquee players out there for us is pretty short: Brian Roberts and maybe some pitchers. Or B.J. Upton. He might be jogging his way out of town, and I'd love to take a chance at screwing his head on straight (heck, even if he doesn't run out everything, he's still a terrific player). Hawpe would fit nicely on the Rays. It'll never happen, but it's a fun thought...