What to do Next

[TheIncredibleRox]

My take on the trade;

--I certainly like Tavares going forward better than Sullivan. HF has given the statistical argument, so I won't repeat it here (our spreadsheets are very similar), but there are a couple things outside of that which I feel work in Tavares' favor.

For one, I think you'll see some Aaron Miles effect-- that is, Tavares could well hit .300 with our gigantic outfield, considering his propensity for dying liners and the fact that he does a decent job putting the ball in play in general. Combine that with his seemingly evolving plate discipline, and a .360 OBP isn't out of the question. That would be huge.

#2... the sabermetric community isn't big on lineup effects--- e.g. protection, whether or not batting order matters all that much, etc. In general, I agree, but here's one effect that I believe exists; when you have a burner--Mr. Wily "Coyote" Taveras--on base, the guy at the plate will see more fastballs. Is this any kind of huge effect? No. But I think it matters.

--Hirsh looks good. The funny thing is, HR prevention was one of his largest assets in the Minors, and his biggest liability in the Majors. Chalk that up to small sample size and rookie jitters in the show. I guess I'm just saying this-- I hope Mr. Hirsh is over his rookie jitters. To contend, we need him to be good, not merely passable. Would really take some weight off the shoulders of Cook and Francis.

--Buchholz is quality depth, although the homeritis looks pretty crippling. With the shoulder concerns, and the fact that he no longer profiles as what one might consider an "impact starter," I wonder if a bullpen transition might be worth a shot. For a guy who was always regarded as having great "stuff," it deserves some consideration. If not, he might be packaged (w/ Barmes? Carroll? Sullivan) for a nice arm in the pen. Buchholz and Barmes for Frank Francisco? I think that looks great.

Overall, I gve the trade a B-. Pretty darn good return, and we create a little room in our budget. The only reason it doesn't get a higher grade is that while we received several useful players, no serious impact players or potential "studs" came our way, and with the pitching market this offseason, I certainly think we could have pulled that off.

*********
From here on out:

--I figure that we have $7-$9 mil left to spend this offseason.
--I'd still like to upgrade 2B.
--One more late-inning RP would be nice.

What I'd do:

--Marcus Giles just got non-tendered, and I'd make a run at him. Besides the fact that he has the ability to be a fabulous offensive 2B, San Diego is going to make a big push for him.

I'd go as high as either 2 years, $15 M, or 3 years, $19M.

--After that, I'd do my damndest to trade Carroll and Barmes. Let's say the aformentioned Texas deal works out. Then we trade Carroll to SD (or someone else) for a prospect.

--Sullivan is a perfectly fine fourth outfielder, so I wouldn't mind keeping him around.

--There are a number of Minor League FAs or freely available players who could contribute in the bullpen, even the 7th and 8th, and cost us next to nothing. But I'm not counting on the team being able to identify them. More realistic: take a flier on a yet who had a down year... Chris Reitsma, JC Romero, Dustin Hermanson, Arthur Rhodes, OR Rudy Seanez.

That would leave us here:

1. Taveras
2. Giles
3. Helton
4. Holliday
5. Atkins
6. Hawpe
7. Tulowitzki
8. Ianetta

Bench: Torrealba, Matsui, Sullivan, Baker, another infielder (too many possibilities to name).

1. Cook
2. Francis
3. Kim
4. Hirsh
5. Fogg

Pen
1. Fuentes
2. Francisco
3. Hawkins
4. Corpas
5. Ramirez
6. Seanez?
7. Affeldt? Martin? Bautista?

Without crunching all the numbers, I'd guess that would put us in the 85-win range.

[GoldGlove]

The only reason it doesn't get a higher grade is that while we received several useful players, no serious impact players or potential "studs" came our way, and with the pitching market this offseason, I certainly think we could have pulled that off.

A good post with some solid ideas for the rest of the season. However, I have one minor disagreement with your reasoning behind the "B-" grade. Hirsh, who is considered a #2 or at least #3 type starter seems to me to be an impact player. I don't know if it would have been possible to get a #1 stud player in return for Jennings, especially with Jennings not signed past 2007. The only way I think we could have gotten the stud starter that you desired would have been to do a sign-and-trade, which we clearly had no intentions of doing (it was either sign or trade, not both.) However, for what could potentially be (as unlikely as it seems, with JJ a Texas native) a one-year rental for Houston, getting a pitcher with the upside of Hirsh in return is pretty nice, not to even mention the addition of Taveras and Buchholz.

[Heltonfan]

Marcus Giles has been a horrible defensive 2B over the past two years. I actually have him and Carroll projected as equivalent players, all things considered. Don't get me wrong, I'd take Giles over Carroll (due to the unreliability of the defensive stats)... I'd even be willing to give him the 3/19 deal that you suggest, because of his upside. But it wouldn't do much for the projected win total.

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

More realistic: take a flier on a yet who had a down year... Chris Reitsma, JC Romero, Dustin Hermanson, Arthur Rhodes, OR Rudy Seanez.

Romero's coming off two straight "down years" - in all probability, he just sucks these days. I like the Rhodes idea, though.

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

In general, I agree, but here's one effect that I believe exists; when you have a burner--Mr. Wily "Coyote" Taveras--on base, the guy at the plate will see more fastballs. Is this any kind of huge effect? No. But I think it matters.

It matters in both directions, though (i.e. the disruptive runner distracts both the pitcher and the hitter). See The Book, pp. 324-327; their conclusion is that hitters actually fare significantly worse with a rabbit on first base than they do without.

Frank Francisco? Great arm, but I wouldn't be willing to give up much for a reliever who has pitched a grand total of eight innings in the past two years. I'd rather have Buchholz. Which reminds me: I don't think T-Buch's homeritis is nearly as bad as his '06 stats suggest. He had a 5.15 FIP (raw stats, from THT), and a 4.65 xFIP. He's certainly not a sinkerballer, but he's no Eric Milton either.

And now that I look into it, I'm even more dubious of Francisco. Back in '04, he allowed 4 HR in 51 IP despite an 0.46 G/F ratio. So we're talking about a guy who a) hasn't had any success since 2004, b) doesn't keep the ball on the ground and c) in his one good year, walked one out of every seven batters he faced. There's plenty of upside there, but he's not the guy we want to spend our remaining trading chips on.

FWIW, I have the Rockies, as currently constituted, projected to win 77 games. If Hawpe, Holliday, Atkins, and Iannetta all match their '06 rate stats, that would jump to 82 wins. Toss in a surprising season from Hirsh (say, 190 innings of league-average pitching), and we're up to 83. Toss in a return to peak (i.e. 2004) form for Helton, and we're at 85. So for anyone out there dreaming of an 85-win season, now you know what it would take.

[TheIncredibleRox]

I don't mean to disparage Hirsh, I just don't see All-Star games in his future. A solid #3 starter is still quite valuable, especially when hes controlled for the next half-decade.

What I meant was I think we had a chance to grab a Lastings Milledge, a Hunter Pence, a Ryan Sweeney, a Phillip Hughes, etc. Basically, one of the top 20 or so prospects in the game... or just a great player in his first year or two.

[Below C-Level]

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

What I meant was I think we had a chance to grab a Lastings Milledge, a Hunter Pence, a Ryan Sweeney, a Phillip Hughes, etc. Basically, one of the top 20 or so prospects in the game... or just a great player in his first year or two.

I think you're vastly overestimating the value of Jason Jennings.

He was the Rockies' #1 starter, but it was almost by default. He's a solid #3 on a contender and a passable #2 on most pitching staffs. He's also 27 and arbitration eligible after this season.

Hughes is 20 years old, will be cheap for quite a while and has a ceiling as high as any pitcher in the minor leagues. Milledge is another non-starter I think.

Honestly, I don't know that they could have hoped to do any better than that deal for JJ. That's a pretty good haul in terms of talent and it also addresses areas of need.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Frank Francisco? Great arm, but I wouldn't be willing to give up much for a reliever who has pitched a grand total of eight innings in the past two years

I don't know if you're missing something, but he's pitched 33.3 in '05 and '06.

He had TJ surgery, which of course as a very high success rate these days, and he'll be about 19 months out of it when the season begins. They say that's the optimal range.

So we're talking about a guy who a) hasn't had any success since 2004

Well, he has barely pitched since '04. But in the 33.3 innings he has, he has in fact done quite well.

b) doesn't keep the ball on the ground

6 Homeruns allowed in 58.6 Major League innings. In 373.3 Minor League innings, a HR rate of .58 per 9. If anything his homerun prevention seems to be a pretty damn strong asset. Also, about 2/3 of those Minor League innings were accumulated as a starter.

c) in his one good year, walked one out of every seven batters he faced

While his control certainly wasn't an asset, a walk rate of 4.91 per 9 is only so damning when you're striking out 10.52 per 9.

I'd take Francisco over Ramirez going into 2006. I'd probably even take him over Hawkins.

[Heltonfan]

I don't know if you're missing something, but he's pitched 33.3 in '05 and '06.

Okay, you got me on that one. As a general principle, I ignore rehab innings because they tend to drive projections down unfairly. For what it's worth, though, Francisco's combined performance from '05 and '06: 3.89 FIP, 4.16 ERC. Hardly anything to get excited about.

6 Homeruns allowed in 58.6 Major League innings. In 373.3 Minor League innings, a HR rate of .58 per 9. If anything his homerun prevention seems to be a pretty damn strong asset.

Again, though, the G/F numbers don't match the HR rate in the slightest. 0.46 G/F back in '04, .67 G/F in his rehab stint at AA... it would be remarkable indeed if he had an ability that extreme to limit his HR/F. I suspect that he doesn't.

I'd take Francisco over Ramirez going into 2006. I'd probably even take him over Hawkins.

Me too. But I wouldn't trade Buchholz for Hawkins (I might trade him for Ramirez, though, because those two are in the same boat service time-wise). The starter/reliever value gap is huge.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Again, though, the G/F numbers don't match the HR rate in the slightest. 0.46 G/F back in '04, .67 G/F in his rehab stint at AA... it would be remarkable indeed if he had an ability that extreme to limit his HR/F.

Well, with well over 400 innings suggesting his HR prevention is a strong asset, and ~60 innings of data showing he is a flyball pitcher, I have to come to one of two conclusions. In the most likely order;

A. He's not actually as extreme of a flyball pitcher as the relatively small sample suggests.

or

B. He is indeed an extreme flyball pitcher, and still does a very good job of keeping balls in the park.


While B may be uncommon, I dont think its unheard of... for whatever reason, I don't find GB/FB data for him, but Dwight Gooden comes to mind.... great HR prevention and I'm 98% sure he was a flyball pitcher.

He threw that "rising fastball"-- a fastball hard enough and with enough backspin that it avoided some natural downward plane. I'm not saying Francisco has young Doc's fastball, but there's a precedent for FB pitchers with good HR prevention.

In fact, I'm looking over some Giants numbers right now, and Matt Cain and Jason Schmidt seem to be good examples.

[Rankal]

Giles would give us a boost offensively, but that's it. We have Matsui, I don't think the Rockies would go out and re-sign him and then go out and spend $7 million to $9 million a year for Giles.

Call me crazy, but let San Diego grab all these players. We've seen many times (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Giants) in history that a great mesh of super all-star players together doesn't always mean a pennant winning team.

[TheIncredibleRox]

We've seen many times (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Giants) in history that a great mesh of super all-star players together doesn't always mean a pennant winning team.

I understand that argument (even if I don't agree with it), but Marcus Giles illicits that reaction?

Especially over Matsui, who has played here about a month and a half.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

I understand that argument (even if I don't agree with it), but Marcus Giles illicits that reaction?

Especially over Matsui, who has played here about a month and a half.

Good point, TIR. The other thing DOD should consider is now that he's got Taveras, the "need for Matsui's speed" isn't as much as before. So, he could flip Kaz and bring in Giles for a real offensive 2nd baseman. I'm all for it, but it ain't gonna happen.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Why I've (kind of) learned to stop worrying about OPS and to start loving Willy T:

Taveras, 24, who stole 33 bases last season and 34 in 2005, is expected to start in center field and hit either leadoff or second, pairing with Kaz Matsui to inject much-needed speed and reduce sacrifice bunts.

Having said that, it's not all good.

If Willy & Kaz are the 1-2 "punch" at the top of the order, you've got career OBPs of:

.333
.318

[indianadrew]

carroll has a career OBP of .356. i would rather have him. defensivly he is better than giles and matsui. he should have gotten the golden glove. how many runs does .023 in OBP translate into? giles has been in decline for the past three years, and he strikes out WAY too much