Jennings dealt to Houston

Heltonfan · 12-12-2006, 05:01 PM

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6265388

Jennings and Asencio for Hirsh, Buchholz, and Taveras. More detailed analysis to come, but at first glance, I like this quite a bit. Getting two MLB-ready starters for Jennings is very nice. And as discussed before, I'm not a big fan of Taveras, but if nothing else, he's quality depth. And he's fun to watch.

aCutb · 12-12-2006, 05:09 PM

Hirsh is going to have a better season than Jennings. Bucholz has potential if the change of scenry will help who knows. I like the trade for Jennings from the Astros standpoint but the Rockies will be the clear winners in 3 years with Hirsh, Bucholz, and Taveras all being good players.

Dont know much about Asencio. Can a Rockie fan elaborate on him?

RMF · 12-12-2006, 05:33 PM

Let the parade of mediocre CF's begin. I'm fine with this deal. I kept hoping we'd get Wheeler. O'dowd actually found a way to cut payroll. Remarkable.

The pitching future is looking a little more certain. Almost every position is filled. Rockies should be able to make a pile of $$$ again next season. I'm not sure I see this getting us over the .500 hill.

We've got Freeman, Taveras, Sullivan and Salazar who do we choose? At least we've got the makings of a dirt cheap bench. We actually could have afforded an upgrade at 2B or CF. But we've got 7+ internal options at those 2 positions. Where do they go from here?

Heltonfan · 12-12-2006, 05:33 PM

Asencio came back from Tommy John surgery last year... pitched quite well in the first half of the season, and then completely fell apart towards the end. He's got much better stuff than his strikeout rate (71 in 111 IP) would suggest. I'm not particularly high on him, and at his age, he's a longshot to really figure things out, but he could be an asset at the back of the rotation if things go well.

Heltonfan · 12-12-2006, 05:34 PM

Going through our new acquisitions one at a time... I'll start with Taveras.

First, his ABRs:
2004: .228
2005: .237
2006: .234
Projection: .242 (still young, so a little improvement is called for).

I'd guess that Taveras is worth an extra 5 runs per year due to baserunning (not basestealing, that's already included in the ABR). Put it all together, and he's a 10-RAR offensive player (Sullivan is 13).

Taveras had a tremendous defensive season by all measures: my ZR-based calculations have him at 8 runs above average, PMR has him at 8 plays above average (a little over 6 runs), the horrendously unreliable but still entertaining Prospectus defensive stats have him at +18. His numbers in '05 weren't nearly as good, though... right at league average. My simple defensive projection system expects 2 RAA from Taveras in '07, but if I were a betting man, I'd take the over. He's Juan Pierre with a throwing arm.

One wonders what Houston is going to do now; they don't have a single remotely acceptable CF option in their organization (Lane can't even play a decent RF, Charlton Jimerson can't hit). And Lofton is off the market. Not a promising situation, to say the least.

hiaspire · 12-12-2006, 05:42 PM

Yeah! I've been wanting Taveras here for a couple of years now. I believe you'll see why in the coming seasons. Wouldn't trade Jennings for him, but definitely would trade Jennings for him + a very good young pitching prospect ready to contribute that might very well be just as good or better than Jennings for the coming years.

Jennings wasn't likely to stick around for years anyway. This is one of the first tests for the Rockies to either (a) lock up a core player for years, or (b) convert them into equal or better value. You gotta do one of those two things with young veterans approaching free agency ahead.

The Rockies front office passes this test this time. I'm very happy with their decision there, and I don't say that often. Filled two holes with one trade for a player they weren't going to hold onto for too long. Welcome to town Taveras.

aCutb · 12-12-2006, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

One wonders what Houston is going to do now; they don't have a single remotely acceptable CF option in their organization (Lane can't even play a decent RF, Charlton Jimerson can't hit). And Lofton is off the market. Not a promising situation, to say the least.

Actually, Chris Burke is one of the best defensive centerfielders according to Phil Garner that he has ever coached. I hope that he plays more centerfield than Jason Lane for us. I expect Burke to be the opening-day starter from centerfield and possibly bat first for the Astros.

Heltonfan · 12-12-2006, 05:44 PM

Jason Hirsh, year-by-year:

2004: 7.80 FIP, 7.62 ERC (High-A)
2005: 4.62 FIP, 4.03 ERC (AA)
2006: 4.70 FIP, 3.53 ERC (AAA, MLB)
Projection: 4.54

Nice yearly progression there, even if much of it is BABIP-driven. As you can see, the projection calls for him to be a decent fourth starter for us this year. And of course, the most important thing is that he's under our control through 2012. He's easily the most valuable player in this deal; if not for the insane SP market we have these days, I would have been fine with trading Jennings for Hirsh straight up.

Scouting-wise, he's a big guy (6'8", 250) with a low-90s fastball and a pretty good slider. Not a top-of-the-rotation guy, but probably a solid #3.

Heltonfan · 12-12-2006, 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aCutb

Actually, Chris Burke is one of the best defensive centerfielders according to Phil Garner that he has ever coached.

Really? Very interesting. Burke's defensive numbers in CF are terrible, which is why I didn't mention him. I'm skeptical about the defensive prowess of a converted 2B in CF, but you never know... that will be a fun one to follow.

RMF · 12-12-2006, 05:54 PM

Garner's also had some pretty fabulous things to say about Taveras over the years. That doesn't make any of it true.

Maybe we can get something for Barmes+Sullivan. O'dowd needs to turn some of this junk into something that can get us over .500 and in the hunt late in the season.

Motivational speeches by Charlie Monfort won't be enough.

The best part about all of this is that 365 days from now Clint Hurdle will be sitting on his porch bouncing his baseball where nobody can see or hear it.

GoldGlove · 12-12-2006, 05:57 PM

What a deal. I would have been just fine with Hirsh and Taveras for Jennings, but adding it Buccholz at the extra price of only Ascensio? Fine with me. A great deal by O'Dowd. Glad to see that he didn't wait any longer and chose to pull the trigger on this one.

Heltonfan · 12-12-2006, 06:05 PM

Taylor Buchholz, year-by-year:

2004: 6.59 FIP, 6.15 ERC
2005: 6.75 FIP, 5.55 ERC
2006: 4.61 FIP, 4.29 ERC
Projection: 5.07

Both '04 and '05 were injury-abbreviated; he had labrum surgery after the '04 season. With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise me too much if the guy we saw in '06 is in fact the "real" Buchholz. He might not win a rotation spot out of spring training, but I think he's a good bet to settle in as a #4 or 5 starter down the road. A nice pickup.

Fun Buchholz fact: he was the unluckiest pitcher in the major leagues last year. With neutral situational luck, his ERA would have been a mere 4.35 (compared to 5.89 actual).

hiaspire · 12-12-2006, 06:15 PM

Outside of numbers and just dealing with PEOPLE, I think this also was a very good destination for Jennings. Texas boy born in Dallas and went to school at Baylor of course, now going back home somewhat to a team that has been a playoff contender in recent seasons. I could see him signing a deal to stay there long-term, and they probably need to get that done pronto since giving up three youngsters for him.

Wouldn't typically be sure about Buchholz's stuff translating here, but sounds like he's getting healthier and could improve in value with more opportunities here. He also pitched a solid game in Coors Field last year - 7 innings and 2 ER so probably isn't terrified of the place mentally. He's good insurance to at least get two decent usable pitchers even if Jason Hirsh doesn't turn out to be better than Jennings. Like Hirsh's fastball-slider as a good fit here to develop alongside Francis for the next several years ahead.

rockieprogress · 12-12-2006, 06:26 PM

So now Kim is our #3 SP?

Roxpert · 12-12-2006, 06:44 PM

My reaction to the trade is that if the Rox weren't going to sign Jennings to an extension, then this is about the best they could do (unless they had packaged him with Helton to Boston for Manny, Pedroia, etc.).

I am NOT a fan of Taveras, but he could convert me IF he returns to showing some of the patience he showed in the minors at times. One encouraging sign is that he saw an average of 3.9 pitches per plate appearance (a good number for a leadoff man) in 2006, compared to 3.5 pitches in 2005, so maybe he is becoming more disciplined as a hitter even though it didn't show in the walk numbers last year.

Hirsh looks to be as good or better than Jennings over the next several years. I just fret that he's the second coming of Scott Elarton, being 6'8" and also coming from Houston. Beware that GB/FB ratio in the majors of only 0.55 in his 44 innings. Small sample size to be sure, but an alarming percentage of flyballs nonetheless.

Buchholz has good peripherals, is young, and would excite me if not learning of his physical issues, which aborted a trade last week for Jon Garland. Is he damaged goods? He certainly is good depth for our rotation, and could relieve.

Now, did we do a deal with Fogg this afternoon?

12-12-2006, 05:01 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Jennings dealt to Houston http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6265388 Jennings and Asencio for Hirsh, Buchholz, and Taveras. More detailed analysis to come, but at first glance, I like this quite a bit. Getting two MLB-ready starters for Jennings is very nice. And as discussed before, I'm not a big fan of Taveras, but if nothing else, he's quality depth. And he's fun to watch.

12-12-2006, 05:34 PM	#5 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Taveras Going through our new acquisitions one at a time... I'll start with Taveras. First, his ABRs: 2004: .228 2005: .237 2006: .234 Projection: .242 (still young, so a little improvement is called for). I'd guess that Taveras is worth an extra 5 runs per year due to baserunning (not basestealing, that's already included in the ABR). Put it all together, and he's a 10-RAR offensive player (Sullivan is 13). Taveras had a tremendous defensive season by all measures: my ZR-based calculations have him at 8 runs above average, PMR has him at 8 plays above average (a little over 6 runs), the horrendously unreliable but still entertaining Prospectus defensive stats have him at +18. His numbers in '05 weren't nearly as good, though... right at league average. My simple defensive projection system expects 2 RAA from Taveras in '07, but if I were a betting man, I'd take the over. He's Juan Pierre with a throwing arm. One wonders what Houston is going to do now; they don't have a single remotely acceptable CF option in their organization (Lane can't even play a decent RF, Charlton Jimerson can't hit). And Lofton is off the market. Not a promising situation, to say the least.

12-12-2006, 05:44 PM	#8 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Hirsh Jason Hirsh, year-by-year: 2004: 7.80 FIP, 7.62 ERC (High-A) 2005: 4.62 FIP, 4.03 ERC (AA) 2006: 4.70 FIP, 3.53 ERC (AAA, MLB) Projection: 4.54 Nice yearly progression there, even if much of it is BABIP-driven. As you can see, the projection calls for him to be a decent fourth starter for us this year. And of course, the most important thing is that he's under our control through 2012. He's easily the most valuable player in this deal; if not for the insane SP market we have these days, I would have been fine with trading Jennings for Hirsh straight up. Scouting-wise, he's a big guy (6'8", 250) with a low-90s fastball and a pretty good slider. Not a top-of-the-rotation guy, but probably a solid #3.

12-12-2006, 06:05 PM	#12 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Buchholz Taylor Buchholz, year-by-year: 2004: 6.59 FIP, 6.15 ERC 2005: 6.75 FIP, 5.55 ERC 2006: 4.61 FIP, 4.29 ERC Projection: 5.07 Both '04 and '05 were injury-abbreviated; he had labrum surgery after the '04 season. With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise me too much if the guy we saw in '06 is in fact the "real" Buchholz. He might not win a rotation spot out of spring training, but I think he's a good bet to settle in as a #4 or 5 starter down the road. A nice pickup. Fun Buchholz fact: he was the unluckiest pitcher in the major leagues last year. With neutral situational luck, his ERA would have been a mere 4.35 (compared to 5.89 actual).

12-12-2006, 05:33 PM	#3 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 195	Let the parade of mediocre CF's begin. I'm fine with this deal. I kept hoping we'd get Wheeler. O'dowd actually found a way to cut payroll. Remarkable. The pitching future is looking a little more certain. Almost every position is filled. Rockies should be able to make a pile of $$$ again next season. I'm not sure I see this getting us over the .500 hill. We've got Freeman, Taveras, Sullivan and Salazar who do we choose? At least we've got the makings of a dirt cheap bench. We actually could have afforded an upgrade at 2B or CF. But we've got 7+ internal options at those 2 positions. Where do they go from here?

12-12-2006, 05:33 PM	#4 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Asencio came back from Tommy John surgery last year... pitched quite well in the first half of the season, and then completely fell apart towards the end. He's got much better stuff than his strikeout rate (71 in 111 IP) would suggest. I'm not particularly high on him, and at his age, he's a longshot to really figure things out, but he could be an asset at the back of the rotation if things go well.

12-12-2006, 05:42 PM	#6 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	Yeah! I've been wanting Taveras here for a couple of years now. I believe you'll see why in the coming seasons. Wouldn't trade Jennings for him, but definitely would trade Jennings for him + a very good young pitching prospect ready to contribute that might very well be just as good or better than Jennings for the coming years. Jennings wasn't likely to stick around for years anyway. This is one of the first tests for the Rockies to either (a) lock up a core player for years, or (b) convert them into equal or better value. You gotta do one of those two things with young veterans approaching free agency ahead. The Rockies front office passes this test this time. I'm very happy with their decision there, and I don't say that often. Filled two holes with one trade for a player they weren't going to hold onto for too long. Welcome to town Taveras.

12-12-2006, 05:54 PM	#10 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 195	Garner's also had some pretty fabulous things to say about Taveras over the years. That doesn't make any of it true. Maybe we can get something for Barmes+Sullivan. O'dowd needs to turn some of this junk into something that can get us over .500 and in the hunt late in the season. Motivational speeches by Charlie Monfort won't be enough. The best part about all of this is that 365 days from now Clint Hurdle will be sitting on his porch bouncing his baseball where nobody can see or hear it.

12-12-2006, 05:57 PM	#11 (permalink)
GoldGlove Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Kansas City Posts: 38	What a deal. I would have been just fine with Hirsh and Taveras for Jennings, but adding it Buccholz at the extra price of only Ascensio? Fine with me. A great deal by O'Dowd. Glad to see that he didn't wait any longer and chose to pull the trigger on this one.

12-12-2006, 06:15 PM	#13 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	Outside of numbers and just dealing with PEOPLE, I think this also was a very good destination for Jennings. Texas boy born in Dallas and went to school at Baylor of course, now going back home somewhat to a team that has been a playoff contender in recent seasons. I could see him signing a deal to stay there long-term, and they probably need to get that done pronto since giving up three youngsters for him. Wouldn't typically be sure about Buchholz's stuff translating here, but sounds like he's getting healthier and could improve in value with more opportunities here. He also pitched a solid game in Coors Field last year - 7 innings and 2 ER so probably isn't terrified of the place mentally. He's good insurance to at least get two decent usable pitchers even if Jason Hirsh doesn't turn out to be better than Jennings. Like Hirsh's fastball-slider as a good fit here to develop alongside Francis for the next several years ahead.

12-12-2006, 06:26 PM	#14 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 182	So now Kim is our #3 SP?

12-12-2006, 06:44 PM	#15 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,008	My reaction to the trade is that if the Rox weren't going to sign Jennings to an extension, then this is about the best they could do (unless they had packaged him with Helton to Boston for Manny, Pedroia, etc.). I am NOT a fan of Taveras, but he could convert me IF he returns to showing some of the patience he showed in the minors at times. One encouraging sign is that he saw an average of 3.9 pitches per plate appearance (a good number for a leadoff man) in 2006, compared to 3.5 pitches in 2005, so maybe he is becoming more disciplined as a hitter even though it didn't show in the walk numbers last year. Hirsh looks to be as good or better than Jennings over the next several years. I just fret that he's the second coming of Scott Elarton, being 6'8" and also coming from Houston. Beware that GB/FB ratio in the majors of only 0.55 in his 44 innings. Small sample size to be sure, but an alarming percentage of flyballs nonetheless. Buchholz has good peripherals, is young, and would excite me if not learning of his physical issues, which aborted a trade last week for Jon Garland. Is he damaged goods? He certainly is good depth for our rotation, and could relieve. Now, did we do a deal with Fogg this afternoon?