Lets talk Trade Deadline

[wolf213]

Anyways, looks like Fuentes is going to be gone by the end of this month and Tampa is likely his suitor. They have a great system and I think we might be able to pluck something good for him. Something like Wade Davis or Jeremey Hellickson looks like a good fit.

Holliday rumors are heating up a bit as well and while it looks like he will stay until the offseason, the names that are popping up are very encouraging. Ramos in St. Luis, Kemp in LA, Saunders or Santana or Weaver in LAA... I hate to trade Holliday but if we can get one of these guys plus a grab bag off assorted goodies (B prospects) I say pull the trigger.

Atkins rumors are winding down a bit, and I think the team will make a run at signing him long term in the offseason, and trade Holliday.

Oh and the first big trade of the season... I think the Brewers got a good deal here, as I think if the Indians held out a bit longer they could have gotten a better package..

[HoyaRoxFan]

I've heard Torrealba to Florida, among others. Haven't heard anything in a while on Herges, which is a shame. Also haven't heard any rumors of late on Taveras, possibly because he's been battling to stay healthy/on the field. If there's one player (other than Fuentes) I hope the Rockies move, he'd be the one...

[TheIncredibleRox]

What in the living hell did Billy Beane just do?

Harden for a bench player, a potential bench player, and a Midwest league bench player???!

EDIT:

Okay, the first report I saw was Harden for Murton, Patterson. and Donaldson. Now I see Sean Gallagher is inccluded, but so is Chad Gaudin from the A's!

Jesus... I mean I know Harden is always hurt, but this seems ridiculous to me. An oft-injured semi-Ace and a very serviceable starter in return for a good-not-great pitching prospect, a short-end-of-the-platoon left fielder, a guy who might oneday explode into a worthwhile utility infielder (and is currently about 45th on the Cubs IF depth chart, and a failed first rounder hitting .217 in the MWL at age 23.

What the hell?

[wolf213]

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

What in the living hell did Billy Beane just do?

Harden for a bench player, a potential bench player, and a Midwest league bench player???!

EDIT:

Okay, the first report I saw was Harden for Murton, Patterson. and Donaldson. Now I see Sean Gallagher is inccluded, but so is Chad Gaudin from the A's!

Jesus... I mean I know Harden is always hurt, but this seems ridiculous to me. An oft-injured semi-Ace and a very serviceable starter in return for a good-not-great pitching prospect, a short-end-of-the-platoon left fielder, a guy who might oneday explode into a worthwhile utility infielder (and is currently about 45th on the Cubs IF depth chart, and a failed first rounder hitting .217 in the MWL at age 23.

What the hell?

Terrible Deal if I ever saw one... my question is with the Rockies being only 6 games back, couldn't we have put together a comparable package to get him?

[Heltonfan]

Here's my problem with this deal:
Harden >> Sabathia (better pitcher, and under contract for an extra year)
Gallagher = LaPorta
Gaudin = Patterson (Gaudin's a league-average starter in his arb years. If anything, this assessment is generous to Beane)
Murton, Donaldson < Bryson + PTBNL

And you'd think that Beane would have been able to get the upper hand, given that the Cubs were making a reactive move. Basically, take out Gaudin and it would be a fair trade. With him in it, though, it's a joke.

And I have the same question about this thing as Wolf does.

[hiaspire]

Undamaged goods >> Damaged goods

I do think that the Cubs got a nice deal in comparison (and I would have gone after a roll of the dice on Harden myself in their shoes after they can't land Sabathia and he ends up going to a division rival) but as usual the real-world risk factors seem to be missed in the numbers. The A's didn't get dumb overnight, and know Harden better than any of us or any collection of stats.

How many 200 inning seasons has he had in the big leagues? None.
How many MLB seasons has he even been over 130 innings? One.
How about just cracking triple digits? Just twice in his big league career and the last time was 3 years ago.

Last year only 25 innings. The year before only 46. He's already missed a month this year. That's part of the real equation, if not mathematically otherwise.

Sabathia has pitched over 180 innings EVERY YEAR of his career for 7 straight seasons. Most of them right around 200 or more, and 241 Cy Young innings last year. Typically 3.20 ERA and 1.15 WHIP type seasons the past few years. Sabathia makes more quality starts every year than Harden usually has in combined total starts for the last couple of years. They aren't dramatically different in terms of performance when both healthy and both Cy Young type talents, but even if Harden is better when he's completely on that's only a tiny fraction of the time compared to the amount of time missed. There is no comparison there as one is very dependible for deliverying 30+ start quality seasons over and over while they other can't seem to stay on the mound for any extended length of time. To not factor that in would be a huge mistake when comparing the situations.

If you're the Cubs I can understand bringing out all the stops to get into the series in this celebratory season for them and here they really didn't have to dig as deep as I would have expected, but don't go too over-board in that praise until Harden's made more than a handful of starts for them. The Cubs have had their share of bad luck over the years, and injured pitchers.

Harden takes his rightful place next to the memories of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood as a promising young starter. He fits right in, and could disappoint on the DL just as easily for a franchise that has seen it's share of those hopes go down the drain on fragile arms.

Maybe he leads them to a magical and historic World Series, but more likely he fails to get much over 100 innings as usual and spends most of the year rehabbing. Odds are that he'll get hurt and you can just see that happening to the Cubs again and it'll be their own fault for betting on another injury-prone arm, but since they didn't have to give up an arm and a leg it might have been worth gambling on his and hoping this is the year for them and for him to stay healthy.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Aspire, I'm with you on this one.

We know Billy Beane is no fool, so we know he was shopping Harden aggressively.

And so we know he got no offers better than what the Cubs came up with.

Why shop him so aggressively? Well, because obviously they know -- and the rest of the league knows, too -- that he's going to break down again, and soon.

Still, a good move for the Cubs, who already are clearly the best team in the NL right now. This is exactly the kind of risk they shouldn't mind taking, and it's not like they're giving up anything important. The goal has to be to get some good work out of Harden in the regular season, then perhaps DL him with the inevitable soreness and try to squeeze a few playoff starts out of him.

And the Cubbies still have enough left to get Brian Fuentes ...

EDIT: Here's a comment from MGL on insidethebook.com. Confirms my belief that Rich Harden is of very little use to a team fighting to make the playoffs, given his extreme injury risk. But to a team that is already a virtual shoo-in to make the playoffs? He's of great value in the playoffs. Don't be surprised if the Cubs shut him down for an extended time, coming back in mid-late September:

There are only 4 teams in each league that have a better than even money chance at making the post-season, and we are barely halfway through the season.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At least according to my Monte Carlo sim, which relies heavily (of course) on my estimation of each team’s overall strength.

NL

ARI
CHN (Ironically, adding Harden, a great pitcher, barely increases their chances of getting into the post-season, as they were almost a lock before. Of course, he greatly increases their chances of winning IN the post-season - if he lasts that long, which might be 50-50 at best.)
MIL (Increased their chances of making post by 16%, by acquiring CC.)
PHI

Other contenders: Dodgers, Mets, STL.

Everyone else has less than a 10% chance.

[wolf213]

Some more Fuentes rumors per Denver post has a few interesting names:

Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson. Also David Price is mentioned as a possibility, however Tampa Bay insist that the only way Price goes anywhere is if Matt Holliday is coming their direction.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by wolf213

Some more Fuentes rumors per Denver post has a few interesting names:

Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson. Also David Price is mentioned as a possibility, however Tampa Bay insist that the only way Price goes anywhere is if Matt Holliday is coming their direction.

I know the Angels are after Holliday, but if you can get a David Price that's the way to go. I'd be surprised TB would even consider giving him up (arguably the best prospect in all of baseball), but as they try to make their way into the playoffs this first time maybe that is possible. More likely, I think Price gets an early big league call up to help them down the stretch that way.

You'd have to trade Holliday and Fuentes for Price. I wouldn't even ask for anything more from them. Not only is he one of the best prospects in the game as a former first overall pick, but also would be a good fit here getting those grounders when not striking people out.

That could even be sold to the fans disappointed in losing Holliday. We have Holliday now and are losing. We've had the Blake Street Bombers before and didn't get too far. The only seasons we did anything we had better pitching too. This year that pitching has disappeared and with it all the wins. Price is a true ace talent and not too far away from helping at the big league level and soon being even more valuable than Holliday himself.

If that's even an option for us, you gotta do that. There is nobody else better in the game to target for Holliday.

[BigRapidsJackass]

If that's even an option for us, you gotta do that.

Not only do I think that's right. I think it's do-able.

Basically it's what the Marlins pulled off with Miguel Cabrera, getting Andrew Miller from the Tigers. It's well-known that cheapo clubs like the Rockies and Marlins won't pay the big bonuses even if they have top draft picks, so why not let other clubs pay it and then trade for them a year later?

[BigRapidsJackass]

M's release Richie Sexson.

Sign him up!

No, I'm not kidding. He is not a good player. But he's better than the alternatives we've got right now. Helton could be out a long time. Jeff Baker is not the answer. Koshansky isn't either, and almost certainly isn't against lefties.

Sexson at least gives you the possibility of a sac fly when you need it. No more watching Willy T. and Pods slapping at the ball with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs.

Remember, the question isn't "does he help?" It's "what've we got to lose?"

[HoyaRoxFan]

USABaseball.com: The Teams: USABaseball.com

Fowler and Weathers are on the Olympic team. So we probably won't see them until September unless..........

[Dante Bichette]

Holliday and Fuentes for Price? I could go for that. What would we have to do to pry Crawford as well? I would love a Holliday and Fuentes for Price and Crawford, with us throwing in anything else Tampa may be interested in, maybe Herges and someone like Koshanksky or Morrillo.

I suppose that is lopsided, but why not turn it into a blockbuster, and use our two best current pieces to get the front line starter we always need, and the center fielder who has alluded us as well (Crawford can also play the corners in case Fowler is ready sometime in the near future)

[Dante Bichette]

Oh, Holiday for Kemp and a pitching prospect wouldn't be bad either. Kemp is basically a poor man's Holliday, so we would save a ton of money and add pitching. I could go for that.

Anybody remember those Atkins for Ervin Santanna rumors when Santanna was struggling last year? Too bad that didn't happen.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Beane does it again: Blanton for Cardenas, Outman, Spencer.

I think Cardenas is a fantastic prospect (and I remember seeing him play, briefly, in High School). Great player to acquire.

But the others? I think describing Outman as an entirely pedestrian pitching prospect might be generous. And Spencer seems to me a complete non-value.

If Blanton were a pending FA, I'm fine with this. But he's in arb until 2011. This is ludicrous.

In my view, you've traded a fragile #1 starter (Harden) a very servicable #2 (Blanton) and a fine 4th/5th in Gaudin for two players you can't find on the waiver wire: Sean Gallagher and Cardenas. And the latter couldn't possibly be expected to contribute until maybe mid 2010.

I'm practically speechless....

EDIT: and again, where were we on this? I mean, screw 2008... Blanton, Baldo, Francis, and Cook would have been fantastic and all are set through 2010.

EDIT 2: And furthermore... if the Phillies weren't the team most desperate for Blanton, I don't know who was. Doing their damndest to stave off the Mets (and this helps, bigtime, towards that end) and featuring a rotation of Cole Hamels a couple 5th starters, and a couple 7th starters.