Lets talk Trade Deadline

[Heltonfan]

On another front: didn't we have something better to offer for Anthony Reyes than what the Indians gave up?

Yep, and so did 27 other teams. I'm utterly baffled by that one. Mark Shapiro is one hell of a dealmaker. Of course, Mozeliak in St. Louis has yet to demonstrate any talent evaluation skills whatsoever, so I guess we shouldn't be too surprised.

Ditto Hoya's comments. For every Sabathia trade, where the big leaguer acquired makes a real difference, there are probably at least five Casey Blake trades. And let's also remember that, while acquiring a prospect can never backfire, because a failed prospect just washes out (having contributed nothing in either direction), acquiring a big leaguer can do actual harm to a club. Remember Gagne last year? That trade didn't just fail to help the '07 Red Sox, it actively hurt them. And a trade can backfire more subtly than that, as well. If Blake just fails to match what the Dodgers would get out of Andy LaRoche - and, odds are, he will - then his acquisition will have done more harm than good.

[TheIncredibleRox]

I'm having an awfully hard time trying to imagine how you get Fuentes as being worth so much to the Rays. A 3.14 ERC over 22 innings (one third of a "relief season" by my definition) is worth .51 WAR (replacement level being 4.50).

A) ERC in my current projection (for remainder of '08) is 2.89, FIP is 3.08. Dunno where you got your ERC of 3.12. My ERCs for '06, '07, and '08: 2.83, 2.68, and '08 at 2.20 (mostly because of the flukish HR rate). B) I was using 26 innings remaining. C) 4.50 for replacement level RPs? Is that a theoretical standard? I've found actual RL over the last two years for RPs to be 4.64, so that's what I use.

[hiaspire]

In the business world you often see two kinds of wise guys (well three if you count me), those who have practical management knowledge from the inside seeing what it takes to run things and those who theorize in academia about such things from behind a podium. In the real front offices acquiring veterans at the trade deadline is the furthest thing from irrelevant to those clubs obviously. I can't imagine anyone thinking otherwise for those teams trying to claw their way into the playoffs and mortgaging part of their future often for that very immediate purpose. I'm a bit of a contrarian myself and like to look at things differently sometimes, and the expressed view is an interesting way to look at deadline trades, but I don't think makes any practical sense.

If the point is mostly that sometimes those trades don't work out, well obviously. That doesn't mean the veteran was irrelevant, though, as that usually is the key driving force for making the deal. Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't on both sides. If you are trying to win now, though, and have the opportunity to do so it would be foolish usually to not do anything if your team is very strong overall but with a couple holes to fill when there are some players on the market that would fill those needs nicely. Players in reality expect their front office to give them the tools to win if the team is in position and just missing a piece or two. Teams in that position almost owe it to their fans and players to do something in reality if they care at all about winning when the opportunity is right there for the taking, but the trick is making good decisions and not give up anything you can't live without down the road (such as ideally acquiring the best player you can that will help the most in exchange for a prospect at a position of strength where you have other good options also).

Originally Posted by HoyaRoxFan

HF means irrelevant in terms of the big picture, not in terms of newsworthiness and flash and dazzle. The stars, naturally, are perceived as being the "final piece" to a team's championship run wherein aspire is right. But count up the players traded at the deadline without whom a team wouldn't have made the playoffs / won a championship. Now that you've got one hand counted off, count the number of prospects that changed hands at the deadline that ended up changing the face of a franchise. This could take a while, wherein HF is right.

Although there has to be a balance to all decisions, the trading deadline for playoff teams rarely is about a focus on the big picture as the window of opportunity is there for a last minute sprint to the finish and achieving the competitive goal of your organization on the field. There are famous/infamous examples on both sides of the equation for trades that have worked out both ways. There was a recent article at Baseball America about "Midseason trades often worth the gamble".

You certainly have better odds in terms of predicting the impact of a player at the MLB level going with a proven established veterans star versus the odds of someone in AA having that same kind of impact later. We all know that even some of the most hyped or most statistically-valued minor leaguer can fail to deliver on their potential and certainly have more questions than a proven veteran.

I'm sure he's talking about some other kind of value or equation for relevancy in numbers, but in reality those teams fighting for the playoffs consider the veteran acquisitions to be entirely relevant which is why they often over-pay a premium cost to take advantage of their opportunity to win this year. To even suggest that something teams will pay so much for would be irrelevant just doesn't add up.

It's also dangerous to generically apply theories across the board to all teams there with such statements. Every team is in a different situation where that decision has different variables. In some cases where a team is older and knows they have very little time to win now before facing a longer rebuilding process later, certainly they see nothing irrelevant about adding another key veteran to give their team a chance at October glory. It's all about winning. For some teams that definitely means NOW and they take current MLB additions very seriously, and for other teams they have hope for winning later where veterans are almost irrelevant now. We've seen that with our own Rox at times where they get some irrelevant stop gap in there to just fill out a uniform. But for teams in the midst of a playoff chase this year, those veteran trades are almost always with a focus toward winning now -- mixed in with some healthy balance toward not giving away too much of the future depending upon each team's unique situation.

[BigRapidsJackass]

OK, let's find some common ground:

Sabathia: critical that the Brewers make the playoffs if Melvin & Yost are to survive. And their odds of survival just went up with this deal.

Harden: critical to Cubbies World that they actually make it to a WS. They have the best chance this year they've ever had -- in pure talent, they're clearly the cream of the NL. Harden is about winning in the playoffs. (Now watch the Cubs collapse in the regular season, because, well, they're the Cubs.)

Nady/Marte: zero downside for the Yankees, since I'm guessing that the only real talent they gave up -- Tabata -- would be one of those Rule 5 problems in a couple years. That's always an issue with these (purportedly) 16-year old signees. And (shock! amazement!!) it is a fiscally prudent deal for Cashman.

Blake: I think they'll regret giving up Meloan as soon as, umm, next month. Remember, with Saito out indefinitely the bullpen's a bit thin. But HF, I think the proper comparison is (Casey) Blake vs. Blake (DeWitt). LaRoche wasn't going to get PT from Torre. (By the way, I just hate the LaRoche boys. I caught a Pirates game when they were in town last week and watched ADHD Adam literally seem to daydream his way out of the action on a couple key plays. He actually stopped and took a turn into RF on a doubleplay ball where he easily could've made an effort to break it up going into 2B. Message to Adam: you're no star, your grip on MLB is tenous. And Andy is following in his footsteps). The only way Casey makes a significant difference to the Dodgers' fate is if he plays OF, forcing Pierre or Andruw to the bench. Again, I don't see that happening.

Reyes: beats me. One of those frustration moves I guess. I would've traded Hirsh straight up for him.

Blanton: just not ver good. Not terrible either, so his value in a trade depends solely on whose rotation spot he's taking. If that person were Kip Wells, I'd like it a lot.

[hiaspire]

As a fan, I actually would like to see them pick up another inexpensive starter to help this team finish out the year and give these guys another shot at late-season heroics since they've gotten some new life recently, but the way things are developing now makes me think that this might be the best time to get the most for Holliday if they are going to end up trading him anyway this winter. The less time he would have with a trade partner (if dealt this winter or especially next July), the lower his value may go. Right now he can help someone like the Red Sox with two playoff chases at least. Beyond that, the opportunities seem to be shrinking.

The Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees are teams that often pop-up in Holliday discussions for future deals because of their resources and use for a big bat in pennant runs. There are other teams too obviously where he could ultimately go (including staying right here as fans cross their fingers), but some of those windows might be closing a bit today.

If Boston moves Manny and gets a replacement OFer today, that might take the most likely destination out for us (although last word was that the proposed 3-way was dead). Other than the two front offices squabbling in the past, Holliday to the Red Sox next year as they replace Manny makes a lot of sense with the BoSox having some young players the Rockies would like and saw some of them first-hand in the Series as they helped bring us down.

If Bay became a Red Sox to finish out the year, maybe Holliday still works his way to Boston this off-season with Bay coming to us as he would not cost as much and be something of a reasonable replacement the franchise could use for justification. But Boston may get their long-term Manny replacement already today if he’s traded as both sides want there and not be in the Holliday bidding next winter.

The Yankees are always a possibility for great players who are going to get great contracts as they can afford it more than most. However, they are shifting away from dealing prospects, and more likely to go out and sign CC Sabathia for their big splash instead of giving up a ton of prospects and cash for Holliday.

The Angels recently got their big bat that was missing in Mark Teixeira, and I think probably make a long-term commitment there -- especially if things go well this October for them together. Maybe they go after Holliday next winter too, but adding a Teixeira isn't really their style and they are more careful with their prospects in that respect. I don't know that they would give Teixeira a monster deal and follow that right up with doing the same for Holliday at a great prospect/contract price. Teixeira might be their big dollar addition to the lineup for now.

So the Rockies might be well advised to jump in and try to replace the Pirates in that discussed 3-way deal that would send Manny to Florida and Bay possibly to the Red Sox. Surely Holliday would do a better job for them in replacing Manny's production and be a bigger long-term fixture. The Rockies could get themselves 3-4 talented prospects, many of whom might even be ready to help now or next season.

Hermida would be a solid young MLB OF replacement with some potential still who could be part of the core here if/when healthy. SP Ryan Tucker and/or OF Michael Stanton could be other possibilities from the Fish along with seeing if we could get an Ellsbury (since he's down a bit this year and fans would love to see on the other side from the Series) or young pitching prospects from the BoSox for an MVP type bat in the prime of his career.

So I think now might be the best time to sneak into that deal and get the most for Holliday before we find out we waited too long again. However, maybe it wouldn't be so bad to wait if the Rockies never find what they are looking for in a Holliday deal and just bite the bullet to sign him otherwise. That would make a lot of fans happy. For me personally, I think they can find offense overall here without creating another Helton-type deal that may hurt us down the road and would rather see that spread around a bit. If they also think that or are convinced that they can't sign him, then they ought to give the Red Sox and Marlins a call about replacing the hesitant Pirates and getting their load of youngsters now while they are to be had before it might be too late.

[GerryInCS]

Nice to see that the Rox did squat at the trading dealine. It seems they are content to let the D'Backs and the Dodgers battle it out for the NL Worst crown. With Fuentes leaving via FA at the end of the season and Holliday likely to go via trade. I don't see this team contending anytime before 2010, especially if they don't go out and some good youth to the rotation. the current rotation of Cook/U-ball/De Los Santos/Rusch/De La Rosa [who got clobbered yet again] has the makings of a last place team. We need Francis and Hirsh (if he ever gets consistent in AAA) to bolster the rotation )sooner rather than later) if this team has any chance of making a move this season.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Gerry, overall I'm glad the Rox sat this one out.

They are (probably even more so than last year) a big longshot to make the playoffs. I think O'Dowd was more than ready to deal Fuentes/Taveras/Torrealba, but I just didn't see players of that ilk bringing much value this season.

I would have like to have seen something like an Anthony Reyes acquisition: a cheap player, you'd still control his rights for at least 2 (3?) more seasons, relatively high upside, acquired for literally nothing of value. Oh, and a hell of a lot better option this weekend than Valerio de los Santos. Those are the deals not made by O'Dowd that I just don't understand. He'll usually justify it with something about "no room on the 40-man roster," which is nonsense since he just added de los Santos to the 40-man to promote him.

There's really only 3 trades these last few weeks that I think will really make a difference: Harden to the Cubs, Sabathia to the Brewers, Texeira to the Angels.

[GerryInCS]

This offseason is going to suck for the Rox. We're going to lose Fuentes to FA and Holliday via trade. Unless we get a solid RP, SP and a replacement OF for Holliday, you can write off 2009 before it even starts. We have no one in the system to replace Fuentes and a platoon of spilly and Seth Smith is not going to make up for Matt. This team will not spend any money to replace them, so we are doomed from the get go. Helton or Atkins needs to go, so that Stewart can stay on the big league roster. I'd prefer it were Helton as Atkins is cheaper and healthier, but there's no way they can unload his contract unless the Rox pick up 50% (or more) of the remaining value.

I expect this team to be mediocre for the rest of this season, maybe approach .500 and struggle to find runs in 2009.