Lets talk Trade Deadline - Page 2

BigRapidsJackass · 07-18-2008, 12:56 AM

This is a real headscratcher.

I got the Harden deal, mostly because I was assuming that Beane's confidence in Harden pitching significant innings (and perhaps the organization's health reports on Harden) were so bad that they thought they needed to dump him before he breaks down again.

But Blanton? Why not hold out for a better deal? His salary isn't huge for the remainder of the season, and you're dealing him at his low point in value. Sickels had Cardenas as a solid B prospect, and he's no sure thing starter. Coincidentally, I had recently checked out the Phillies prospect list, wondering what they'd give up for a 2-month rental of Fuentes, and I was thinking Cardenas was a possibility. Guess I was wrong.

I checked some fangraphs stuff to see if there's a smoking gun re Blanton's health. Nothing there. Fastball is the same 89 average it's always been, and pitch selection is also the same. GB/FB ratio: same. FIP: same. K rate is down a bit, but I'd guess that's more a small sample blip. So he's the same old Blanton. I'd call him a 3rd starter type, but still: nothing wrong with that.

So IR, I'm with you on this one -- I don't get this at all.

GerryInCS · 07-18-2008, 10:54 AM

A better deal? The A's got the Phillies #2 and #4 ranked prospects. this is a Billy Beane all the way. He's setting his team up for the future while wrecking the Phillies' future at the same time.

TheIncredibleRox · 07-18-2008, 04:47 PM

So I've been mulling some potential matchups in a Holliday trade...

It seems to me the best fit, from our perspective, would be the Angels. Between Sean Rodriguez, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, and Erick Aybar, they have a ton of young MI impact bats who are ready to contribute at the Major League level.

Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis are also attractive possibilities.

They're a little thin on pitching, though I really like Jordan Walden.

The point is, the Angels have the most attractive (and available) chips. I could see them saying yes to a deal for Rodriguez, Wood, and Walden. I'd hit the roof if we could get Kendrick, Rodriguez, and Walden.

hiaspire · 07-18-2008, 05:46 PM

Are you guys the same ones who thought Edinson Volquez was crap just going by the numbers this off-season? Talent evaluation matters too.

Cardenas was rated #76 top prospect overall going into the season by Baseball America and just missed the top 25 in their mid-season update recently. His stock is rising in the eyes of many from a scouting perspective and most rate him as the top 2B in the minors. The A's just happen to have an upcoming need there and an interest in adding young talent.

Blanton is over-rated if called a #2 starting pitcher. He's 5-12 with ERA near 5.00. He gets shelled regularly and is very up-and-down with inconsistency from game-to-game and season-to-season. One up, one down. He doesn't strike out many, isn't overly impressive otherwise, and is likely a very replaceable mid-to-back-of-the-rotation type guy I would guess for most of his career. Beane usually gets these things right, despite some initial questions when he trades someone.

I disagree that it hurts the Phillies future, though, as Cardenas likely has no future with them with Utley there. He's a very valuable trade chip for them in higher demand. If you were the Phillies and looking to add MLB difference-makers (rumors of them also talking to the Rox recently about Holliday) why on earth would you give up one of your top trading chips that you can afford to deal for Blanton??

That would be my concern as a Phillies fan that there are far BETTER names on the trade market to use Cardenas to try to land.

The A's aren't crying too much about losing Blanton as they've had some frustrations with him and with all their young arms in the system. Cardenas will be up sooner to make an impact than you think I'm guessing with the A's losing their 2B next year and Cardenas probably hitting in AA before the year is over.

Newman · 07-20-2008, 09:58 PM

Sounds like Holliday will stay put and be traded in the off season. I keep hearing from the talking heads on espn that O'Dowd asks for the moon in his trade talks. Other GMs don't like dealing with him. They also say that Fuentes is the top target out there, to be moved before the trade deadline.

I wonder what kind of deal Dan will make for Fuentes and also who will become our closer then (Corpas I assume).

We just swept the lowly Pirates, who have nothing to play for, granted. But why deal Fuentes? We're not that far out. If Stewart hits like last year's Tulo we could do it again in the NL Worst.

I wonder if Heltonfan is going to change his screen name to Stewartfan or Atkinsfan or Hollidayfan soon?

BigRapidsJackass · 07-21-2008, 04:23 AM

Quote:

A better deal? The A's got the Phillies #2 and #4 ranked prospects.

Isn't that kind of like saying "Good deal, the Nuggets got the a first-round draft pick from the Lakers."

Not every team's Top 5 prospects are created equal. That's why I pointed out that Cardenas was a solid B-grade prospect, a fine young player but far from a can't-miss guy.

I do hope Fuentes gets moved if we get a reasonable offer, but there's no point in moving him for a couple of mediocre prospects -- we'd presumably get the same kind of value by taking the compensatory draft picks when he leaves. Then again, whatever team acquires him also gets to replenish with those picks. That's why I think the price will go up in the next 10 days, and he will get traded.

Newman · 07-21-2008, 02:03 PM

[quote=BigRapidsJackass

I do hope Fuentes gets moved if we get a reasonable offer, but there's no point in moving him for a couple of mediocre prospects -- we'd presumably get the same kind of value by taking the compensatory draft picks when he leaves. Then again, whatever team acquires him also gets to replenish with those picks. That's why I think the price will go up in the next 10 days, and he will get traded.[/QUOTE]

What do you mean by the end part of your quote, Jackass? I admit this stuff still confuses me. If WE lose Fuentes to free agency then we get a couple of compensatory picks. BUT if we trade Fuentes to the Rays, why do THEY "also get to replenish with picks?"

If we trade Fuentes to the Rays for two prospects, isn't that the end of the deal?

Or is Dealin Dan (remember when he was called that) trades Fuentes is he expecting to get Longoria, Pena, and two prospects?? Is that what he's holding out for?

TheIncredibleRox · 07-21-2008, 06:32 PM

From MLBtraderumors.com:

Quote:

Shaikin says the Rockies would demand prospect Nick Adenhart for starters, and the Angels might consider that. However, the Rockies also want Howie Kendrick and one of Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders.

I actually like to hear that. Why shouldn't we ask for the moon?

I'm not as high on Adenhart as popular media seems to be. But if the Rockies were able to make this proposal with a straight face, then something like the package I mentioned earlier seems entirely possible. (Kendrick, Rodriguez/Wood, and Walden)

HoyaRoxFan · 07-21-2008, 11:14 PM

Newman, whoever has the Fuentes hot potato at the end of the year will lose him to free agency. As compensation for that loss, that team will receive two compensatory draft picks.

If we don't trade him, those picks are ours. If we do trade him, those picks belong to the other team.

If we don't trade him and we re-sign him, no picks. If the team to which we traded him re-signs him, no picks.

Who's on first. What's on second.

Any hesitation O'Dowd may have had after that four-game streak should be gone tonight. Our rotation is beyond critical now... Cook, U-ball, and white flag, please.

P.S. The Yankees need a catcher. Pick Yorvit! Pick Yorvit!

Newman · 07-22-2008, 07:41 AM

I see. Thanks for the simple explanation, Hoya. It wasn't obvious to me. Of course, Fuentes could get traded to the Rays and could sign with them in the off season.

Yes, please, trade Torrealba to the Yankees! It's a win win win situation. Then I could pick up Ianetta for my fantasy team! And Torrealba might be worth picking up as well. Who wants a part time catcher on your fantasy?

Posada is done for the year. Why hasn't O'Dowd done a deal by the time I push Post Quick Reply?

TheIncredibleRox · 07-22-2008, 12:34 PM

So apparently Randy Wolf is on his way to the Astros, don't know for who yet.

Is Ed Wade just operating under the thought that "maybe if we act like we're contending, nobody will notice"?

I wrote in a Spring Preview that I distributed to some teams that the Astros were "blissfully unaware that they're the new Orioles." They're doing their damndest to make me look smart.

hiaspire · 07-22-2008, 03:14 PM

Houston's playing better than us. If they are the new Orioles, are we the Royals or Pirates?

There's some truth to what you say, but I don't think teams need to waive the white flag and utterly quit these days like they used to or go into those devastating 7-year plan rebuilding cycles like the Rockies did for so many years while their unprecidented support was demolished.

These are businesses too, and especially down there they have an active owner that is very conscious of giving the fans their money's worth and playing out all 162. All too many organizations are quick on the quit. Throw in the towel, and fans (with their inflated season ticket prices) be damned.

Sounds like they won't have to give up much there if it's just a secondary pitching prospect as rumored, and who knows maybe Wolf is even traded again at the deadline (or at the waiver deadline) if they can't string a couple good series together and get on a streak as they have before. They'll get some players back from injury soon, and the possibility that guys like Hunter Pence pick it up in the second half to go along with Berkman and Carlos Lee having big years.

Houston has a recent history of some strong finishes, and part of it is that willingness to not quit as so many people would probably urge otherwise. There is something to be said for that.

HoyaRoxFan · 07-22-2008, 10:36 PM

Jon Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio. That seems like a really small catch for the Nationals. Does that bode ominously for the chances of moving Fuentes and/or is Jim Bowden just an idiot?

Heltonfan · 07-22-2008, 11:44 PM

I don't have a problem with the Randy Wolf deal, because they didn't give anything up to get him. But yeah, that team is hilarious. Berkman is on another planet, Lee is having the best offensive year of his career, they've won five more games than their component stats suggest they should have... and they're still nowhere close to relevant. There's no organization that has less of a future than the Astros do.

Quote:

Does that bode ominously for the chances of moving Fuentes and/or is Jim Bowden just an idiot?

I think Bowden's just an idiot. Fuentes is one of the best lefty relievers around (and the best one available), and comes with draft picks attached... that's a valuable commodity. A team like Milwaukee or St. Louis should be willing to give up quite a bit for him.

TheIncredibleRox · 07-23-2008, 12:16 AM

Quote:

Does that bode ominously for the chances of moving Fuentes and/or is Jim Bowden just an idiot?

Frankly, I'm just fine if we don't. Given what teams pay for RPs (especially closers) on the open market, there's no way he accepts arbitration. So with two draft picks already in our pocket, we can talk to the Cardinals and say "unless Rasmus is on the table, we're all set." But there's at least a decent chance someone gets desperate enough to make that scenario a reality.

07-18-2008, 10:54 AM	#17 (permalink)
GerryInCS Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 617	A better deal? The A's got the Phillies #2 and #4 ranked prospects. this is a Billy Beane all the way. He's setting his team up for the future while wrecking the Phillies' future at the same time. __________________ Americans aren't afraid of Mexicans, Americans are afraid that Mexicans are turning America into Mexico.

07-18-2008, 05:46 PM	#19 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	Are you guys the same ones who thought Edinson Volquez was crap just going by the numbers this off-season? Talent evaluation matters too. Cardenas was rated #76 top prospect overall going into the season by Baseball America and just missed the top 25 in their mid-season update recently. His stock is rising in the eyes of many from a scouting perspective and most rate him as the top 2B in the minors. The A's just happen to have an upcoming need there and an interest in adding young talent. Blanton is over-rated if called a #2 starting pitcher. He's 5-12 with ERA near 5.00. He gets shelled regularly and is very up-and-down with inconsistency from game-to-game and season-to-season. One up, one down. He doesn't strike out many, isn't overly impressive otherwise, and is likely a very replaceable mid-to-back-of-the-rotation type guy I would guess for most of his career. Beane usually gets these things right, despite some initial questions when he trades someone. I disagree that it hurts the Phillies future, though, as Cardenas likely has no future with them with Utley there. He's a very valuable trade chip for them in higher demand. If you were the Phillies and looking to add MLB difference-makers (rumors of them also talking to the Rox recently about Holliday) why on earth would you give up one of your top trading chips that you can afford to deal for Blanton?? That would be my concern as a Phillies fan that there are far BETTER names on the trade market to use Cardenas to try to land. The A's aren't crying too much about losing Blanton as they've had some frustrations with him and with all their young arms in the system. Cardenas will be up sooner to make an impact than you think I'm guessing with the A's losing their 2B next year and Cardenas probably hitting in AA before the year is over. Last edited by hiaspire; 07-18-2008 at 05:56 PM.

07-20-2008, 09:58 PM	#20 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 523	Sounds like Holliday will stay put and be traded in the off season. I keep hearing from the talking heads on espn that O'Dowd asks for the moon in his trade talks. Other GMs don't like dealing with him. They also say that Fuentes is the top target out there, to be moved before the trade deadline. I wonder what kind of deal Dan will make for Fuentes and also who will become our closer then (Corpas I assume). We just swept the lowly Pirates, who have nothing to play for, granted. But why deal Fuentes? We're not that far out. If Stewart hits like last year's Tulo we could do it again in the NL Worst. I wonder if Heltonfan is going to change his screen name to Stewartfan or Atkinsfan or Hollidayfan soon? Last edited by Newman; 07-20-2008 at 10:01 PM.

07-21-2008, 11:14 PM	#24 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 281	Newman, whoever has the Fuentes hot potato at the end of the year will lose him to free agency. As compensation for that loss, that team will receive two compensatory draft picks. If we don't trade him, those picks are ours. If we do trade him, those picks belong to the other team. If we don't trade him and we re-sign him, no picks. If the team to which we traded him re-signs him, no picks. Who's on first. What's on second. Any hesitation O'Dowd may have had after that four-game streak should be gone tonight. Our rotation is beyond critical now... Cook, U-ball, and white flag, please. P.S. The Yankees need a catcher. Pick Yorvit! Pick Yorvit! Last edited by HoyaRoxFan; 07-21-2008 at 11:17 PM.

07-22-2008, 03:14 PM	#27 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	Houston's playing better than us. If they are the new Orioles, are we the Royals or Pirates? There's some truth to what you say, but I don't think teams need to waive the white flag and utterly quit these days like they used to or go into those devastating 7-year plan rebuilding cycles like the Rockies did for so many years while their unprecidented support was demolished. These are businesses too, and especially down there they have an active owner that is very conscious of giving the fans their money's worth and playing out all 162. All too many organizations are quick on the quit. Throw in the towel, and fans (with their inflated season ticket prices) be damned. Sounds like they won't have to give up much there if it's just a secondary pitching prospect as rumored, and who knows maybe Wolf is even traded again at the deadline (or at the waiver deadline) if they can't string a couple good series together and get on a streak as they have before. They'll get some players back from injury soon, and the possibility that guys like Hunter Pence pick it up in the second half to go along with Berkman and Carlos Lee having big years. Houston has a recent history of some strong finishes, and part of it is that willingness to not quit as so many people would probably urge otherwise. There is something to be said for that. Last edited by hiaspire; 07-22-2008 at 03:38 PM.

07-18-2008, 12:56 AM	#16 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,110	This is a real headscratcher. I got the Harden deal, mostly because I was assuming that Beane's confidence in Harden pitching significant innings (and perhaps the organization's health reports on Harden) were so bad that they thought they needed to dump him before he breaks down again. But Blanton? Why not hold out for a better deal? His salary isn't huge for the remainder of the season, and you're dealing him at his low point in value. Sickels had Cardenas as a solid B prospect, and he's no sure thing starter. Coincidentally, I had recently checked out the Phillies prospect list, wondering what they'd give up for a 2-month rental of Fuentes, and I was thinking Cardenas was a possibility. Guess I was wrong. I checked some fangraphs stuff to see if there's a smoking gun re Blanton's health. Nothing there. Fastball is the same 89 average it's always been, and pitch selection is also the same. GB/FB ratio: same. FIP: same. K rate is down a bit, but I'd guess that's more a small sample blip. So he's the same old Blanton. I'd call him a 3rd starter type, but still: nothing wrong with that. So IR, I'm with you on this one -- I don't get this at all.

07-18-2008, 04:47 PM	#18 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 270	So I've been mulling some potential matchups in a Holliday trade... It seems to me the best fit, from our perspective, would be the Angels. Between Sean Rodriguez, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, and Erick Aybar, they have a ton of young MI impact bats who are ready to contribute at the Major League level. Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis are also attractive possibilities. They're a little thin on pitching, though I really like Jordan Walden. The point is, the Angels have the most attractive (and available) chips. I could see them saying yes to a deal for Rodriguez, Wood, and Walden. I'd hit the roof if we could get Kendrick, Rodriguez, and Walden.

07-21-2008, 02:03 PM	#22 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 523	[quote=BigRapidsJackass I do hope Fuentes gets moved if we get a reasonable offer, but there's no point in moving him for a couple of mediocre prospects -- we'd presumably get the same kind of value by taking the compensatory draft picks when he leaves. Then again, whatever team acquires him also gets to replenish with those picks. That's why I think the price will go up in the next 10 days, and he will get traded.[/QUOTE] What do you mean by the end part of your quote, Jackass? I admit this stuff still confuses me. If WE lose Fuentes to free agency then we get a couple of compensatory picks. BUT if we trade Fuentes to the Rays, why do THEY "also get to replenish with picks?" If we trade Fuentes to the Rays for two prospects, isn't that the end of the deal? Or is Dealin Dan (remember when he was called that) trades Fuentes is he expecting to get Longoria, Pena, and two prospects?? Is that what he's holding out for?

07-22-2008, 07:41 AM	#25 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 523	I see. Thanks for the simple explanation, Hoya. It wasn't obvious to me. Of course, Fuentes could get traded to the Rays and could sign with them in the off season. Yes, please, trade Torrealba to the Yankees! It's a win win win situation. Then I could pick up Ianetta for my fantasy team! And Torrealba might be worth picking up as well. Who wants a part time catcher on your fantasy? Posada is done for the year. Why hasn't O'Dowd done a deal by the time I push Post Quick Reply?

07-22-2008, 12:34 PM	#26 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 270	So apparently Randy Wolf is on his way to the Astros, don't know for who yet. Is Ed Wade just operating under the thought that "maybe if we act like we're contending, nobody will notice"? I wrote in a Spring Preview that I distributed to some teams that the Astros were "blissfully unaware that they're the new Orioles." They're doing their damndest to make me look smart.

07-22-2008, 10:36 PM	#28 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 281	Jon Rauch for Emilio Bonifacio. That seems like a really small catch for the Nationals. Does that bode ominously for the chances of moving Fuentes and/or is Jim Bowden just an idiot?