Portrait of a Cellar Dweller

BigRapidsJackass · June 29th, 2008, 02:45 PM

One game past the half-way point, and here's where we stand:

On pace for a 64-98 season.

To get to .500, we'd have to go 49-31 (.613) the rest of the way. I'm going to be an optimist and say there's an outside chance that could happen. But I'm going to be a realist and say that even if it does,there's pretty much no way we take the division with less than 85 wins. So that would mean 53-27 (.663). And that ain't gonna happen. And unlike last year, the wild card seems pretty much impossible. So the only playoff scenario left is this:

D'backs continue to tank
Dodgers never put it together
Padres continue to stink as bad as the Rockies
Rockies go on a 2007-type tear (not as extreme; something like 21 of 25 would do)
Giants grab what's rightfully theirs: last place

Not yet as long a shot as we were on Labor Day last year, but it's getting real close.

And what's gone wrong?

1. Power outage. 13th in HRs in the NL this year. A team that plays half its games at Coors is also 12th in runs scored. Injuries explain part of it: Tulo, Hawpe, Holliday. And no, it's not about the humidor. The Coors HR park factor is still 1.27 -- still 6th in all of baseball. Last year was actually lower (1.22)

2. Horrible off-season decision making. Kip Wells, Luis Vizcaino, Yorvit, Redman, Herges. Even the guys who've been o.k. (Herges) just amounted to more money that could've been spent on a real upgrade being spent on spinning our wheels.

3. Poor managing. Crappy players getting way too many PAs. Taveras and Torrealba have been awful. Today is a fine example: an AL game with a DH, and Taveras is in the lineup. No, he wasn't the DH, but he might as well have been, since Spilborghs easily could've played CF. Iannetta caught last night, but he certainly at a minimum could've DH'd today.

4. Crappy pitching. Francis: no, I don't think anything's wrong with him physically; he wasn't as good as his numbers last year, and he's not as bad as his numbers this year. Unfortunately, nobody other than Buchholz (who's been good and extremely lucky) seems to be having a career year this season.

If the D'backs were playing even decent baseball, it would already be break up the Rockies and play for '09 time.

HoyaRoxFan · June 29th, 2008, 05:15 PM

One silver lining, it seems to me, is that short of trading Holliday or Atkins (and HF may wish to differ on them as well), any "breaking up" of the Rockies could still be addition by subtraction for this year. Since the folks most likely to be traded include our litter of center fielders (sans Spilly), Brian Fuentes, et cetera, I don't think losing any of them damage our chances of competing this year or in the future.

The folks who need to get out of their funks (Hurdle, Helton, Tulo, starting pitchers not named Cook, Vizcaino, Corpas) aren't going anywhere whether we break up the team or hold it together...

Questions that remain for me:

1. Don't those power numbers have to correct themselves over the remainder of the season?

2. Does ownership make a move in the offseason to shake up the coaching staff or do they pull off another mini-miracle and manage only to keep their jobs?

3. The Rockies are having trouble with pitching? Shocker. Why are guys like Jeff Weaver still sitting in free agency? On another pitching note, does Shawn Chacon get a chance to redeem himself in the minor leagues in our organization? Can someone remind me again why it was critical to get Manny Corpas locked into a deal?

4. What to do about Todd Helton???

BigRapidsJackass · June 29th, 2008, 08:33 PM

My shot at answering Hoya's questions:

1. Yes, the power numbers will begin to correct themselves. But it may turn out that Tulo had the power season of his career last year. And guys like Hawpe and Holliday could already be on the power downswing in their careers. I'm guessing that's true with Hawpe (who'd be #1 on my trade bait list) but not with Holliday.

2. I actually believe Hurdle will be gone, together with his core coaching staff (Apodaca, Gallego, Quirk). Probably not O'Dowd. Why? Well, not for the right reasons. No, I think he'll get canned because it's the cheapest way to try to instill some optimism about '09. So I'm guessing he's gone in October.

3. The Corpas deal may have been unnecessary, but I still like him just fine going forward. He really hasn't been that bad this year. It's a shame he couldn't nail down the closer's role, but that doesn't matter that much since Fuentes was going to be misused regardless. Chacon? Time to face facts: he's a really crappy pitcher, and he's an attitude problem. It's over for him. Jeff Weaver? Curious that he hasn't resurfaced, but that's because he seems to have an inflated opinion of his worth, given that he's just above Chacon on the crap chart. My real question: why is Greg Reynolds still up? You've got to at least flip-flop Reynolds and Hirsh to stop Reynolds arbitration clock. Right now, they seem roughly interchangeable -- it's unclear whether either one will ever progress beyond 5th starter type.

4. What to do with Helton? Answer: nothing can be done. Hope he starts hitting a little more and becomes something close to the '06-'07 version. If this is a new, greatly reduced plateau in his decline, we're in serious trouble. Nobody will take him off our hands now, and he's still owed a ton of money over the next 3 seasons. His salary was an albatross until market rates (and his continuing, albeit reduced, productivity) resolved that issue in '05 to '07. But at this level of production, his salary will be a huge problem.

Mostly, this season has been about bad luck. Bad injuries, bad breaks, bad clutch hitting (something that is almost always a function of luck, like good clutch hitting too), lots of guys having subpar seasons at the same time. Hey, it's the reverse of the Sept-Oct run last year. But some guys (Jimenez? Morales? Reynolds?) have got to step up or we're still looking at a .500-type team at best in 2009.

Newman · June 30th, 2008, 07:40 AM

What's attendance going to be at this homestand? I have no interest in going to see the Pads or the Rox. Watching Wimbledon now.

Luck. I never used to factor LUCK in to things like this. I always thought it was about skill, matchups, the lineup, when to pull the starter, strategy, and so forth. But I scratch my head now. Last year's miracle run was what? Luck! This year we're the same crappy team that has bedeviled us for years. I'm tired of the mediocrity. I'm tired of either finishing last or next to last.

Evan Longoria or Greg Reynolds? What a choice in that draft! I constantly see Longoria during Baseball Tonight highlights, either in web gems or hitting homeruns. The Rays are flying high, battling the Bosox for the lead.

Even if we had pulled off that draft pick, (was that Lincecom's year as well?), could O'Dowd have managed a trade of Atkins for something useful? And yes we are stuck with Helton, the Toddfather (34). The commercial where all the players go to him for advice or to be granted wishes is especially grating. Todd can't even fix himself.

Dante Bichette · June 30th, 2008, 05:22 PM

As much as I enjoyed last year's success, I was a little worried that the Monforts saw it as a proof that their overall plan and poor business decisions were working. That was the dark cloud that loomed on the sunny horizon.

Now, there is a hint of sunshine through the dark clouds, and it is the fact that maybe the Monforts will wise up and realize that last year's remarkable run was a fluke, will likely not be repeated, and is not the foundation for a stable winning structure in the majors.

Hurdle and O'Dowd absolutely have to go, and everybody (and I mean everybody) on the roster should be available for the right price as we near the trade deadline.

The sad thing is, I think I had a bit of a hangover after last year's run, and I never got into the Rockies at the beginning of the year. Now, it is too late. I don't think I have watched a full game all year, other than the two I went two. I have tried, but this team is almost unwatchable. Thank God for the extra innings package, which enables me to watch quality baseball every day without tuning into the local team.

June 29th, 2008, 02:45 PM	#1 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	Portrait of a Cellar Dweller One game past the half-way point, and here's where we stand: On pace for a 64-98 season. To get to .500, we'd have to go 49-31 (.613) the rest of the way. I'm going to be an optimist and say there's an outside chance that could happen. But I'm going to be a realist and say that even if it does,there's pretty much no way we take the division with less than 85 wins. So that would mean 53-27 (.663). And that ain't gonna happen. And unlike last year, the wild card seems pretty much impossible. So the only playoff scenario left is this: D'backs continue to tank Dodgers never put it together Padres continue to stink as bad as the Rockies Rockies go on a 2007-type tear (not as extreme; something like 21 of 25 would do) Giants grab what's rightfully theirs: last place Not yet as long a shot as we were on Labor Day last year, but it's getting real close. And what's gone wrong? 1. Power outage. 13th in HRs in the NL this year. A team that plays half its games at Coors is also 12th in runs scored. Injuries explain part of it: Tulo, Hawpe, Holliday. And no, it's not about the humidor. The Coors HR park factor is still 1.27 -- still 6th in all of baseball. Last year was actually lower (1.22) 2. Horrible off-season decision making. Kip Wells, Luis Vizcaino, Yorvit, Redman, Herges. Even the guys who've been o.k. (Herges) just amounted to more money that could've been spent on a real upgrade being spent on spinning our wheels. 3. Poor managing. Crappy players getting way too many PAs. Taveras and Torrealba have been awful. Today is a fine example: an AL game with a DH, and Taveras is in the lineup. No, he wasn't the DH, but he might as well have been, since Spilborghs easily could've played CF. Iannetta caught last night, but he certainly at a minimum could've DH'd today. 4. Crappy pitching. Francis: no, I don't think anything's wrong with him physically; he wasn't as good as his numbers last year, and he's not as bad as his numbers this year. Unfortunately, nobody other than Buchholz (who's been good and extremely lucky) seems to be having a career year this season. If the D'backs were playing even decent baseball, it would already be break up the Rockies and play for '09 time.

June 30th, 2008, 07:40 AM	#4 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 566	What's attendance going to be at this homestand? I have no interest in going to see the Pads or the Rox. Watching Wimbledon now. Luck. I never used to factor LUCK in to things like this. I always thought it was about skill, matchups, the lineup, when to pull the starter, strategy, and so forth. But I scratch my head now. Last year's miracle run was what? Luck! This year we're the same crappy team that has bedeviled us for years. I'm tired of the mediocrity. I'm tired of either finishing last or next to last. Evan Longoria or Greg Reynolds? What a choice in that draft! I constantly see Longoria during Baseball Tonight highlights, either in web gems or hitting homeruns. The Rays are flying high, battling the Bosox for the lead. Even if we had pulled off that draft pick, (was that Lincecom's year as well?), could O'Dowd have managed a trade of Atkins for something useful? And yes we are stuck with Helton, the Toddfather (34). The commercial where all the players go to him for advice or to be granted wishes is especially grating. Todd can't even fix himself. Last edited by Newman; June 30th, 2008 at 07:42 AM.

June 29th, 2008, 05:15 PM	#2 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 305	One silver lining, it seems to me, is that short of trading Holliday or Atkins (and HF may wish to differ on them as well), any "breaking up" of the Rockies could still be addition by subtraction for this year. Since the folks most likely to be traded include our litter of center fielders (sans Spilly), Brian Fuentes, et cetera, I don't think losing any of them damage our chances of competing this year or in the future. The folks who need to get out of their funks (Hurdle, Helton, Tulo, starting pitchers not named Cook, Vizcaino, Corpas) aren't going anywhere whether we break up the team or hold it together... Questions that remain for me: 1. Don't those power numbers have to correct themselves over the remainder of the season? 2. Does ownership make a move in the offseason to shake up the coaching staff or do they pull off another mini-miracle and manage only to keep their jobs? 3. The Rockies are having trouble with pitching? Shocker. Why are guys like Jeff Weaver still sitting in free agency? On another pitching note, does Shawn Chacon get a chance to redeem himself in the minor leagues in our organization? Can someone remind me again why it was critical to get Manny Corpas locked into a deal? 4. What to do about Todd Helton???

June 29th, 2008, 08:33 PM	#3 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,175	My shot at answering Hoya's questions: 1. Yes, the power numbers will begin to correct themselves. But it may turn out that Tulo had the power season of his career last year. And guys like Hawpe and Holliday could already be on the power downswing in their careers. I'm guessing that's true with Hawpe (who'd be #1 on my trade bait list) but not with Holliday. 2. I actually believe Hurdle will be gone, together with his core coaching staff (Apodaca, Gallego, Quirk). Probably not O'Dowd. Why? Well, not for the right reasons. No, I think he'll get canned because it's the cheapest way to try to instill some optimism about '09. So I'm guessing he's gone in October. 3. The Corpas deal may have been unnecessary, but I still like him just fine going forward. He really hasn't been that bad this year. It's a shame he couldn't nail down the closer's role, but that doesn't matter that much since Fuentes was going to be misused regardless. Chacon? Time to face facts: he's a really crappy pitcher, and he's an attitude problem. It's over for him. Jeff Weaver? Curious that he hasn't resurfaced, but that's because he seems to have an inflated opinion of his worth, given that he's just above Chacon on the crap chart. My real question: why is Greg Reynolds still up? You've got to at least flip-flop Reynolds and Hirsh to stop Reynolds arbitration clock. Right now, they seem roughly interchangeable -- it's unclear whether either one will ever progress beyond 5th starter type. 4. What to do with Helton? Answer: nothing can be done. Hope he starts hitting a little more and becomes something close to the '06-'07 version. If this is a new, greatly reduced plateau in his decline, we're in serious trouble. Nobody will take him off our hands now, and he's still owed a ton of money over the next 3 seasons. His salary was an albatross until market rates (and his continuing, albeit reduced, productivity) resolved that issue in '05 to '07. But at this level of production, his salary will be a huge problem. Mostly, this season has been about bad luck. Bad injuries, bad breaks, bad clutch hitting (something that is almost always a function of luck, like good clutch hitting too), lots of guys having subpar seasons at the same time. Hey, it's the reverse of the Sept-Oct run last year. But some guys (Jimenez? Morales? Reynolds?) have got to step up or we're still looking at a .500-type team at best in 2009.

June 30th, 2008, 05:22 PM	#5 (permalink)
Dante Bichette Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 272	As much as I enjoyed last year's success, I was a little worried that the Monforts saw it as a proof that their overall plan and poor business decisions were working. That was the dark cloud that loomed on the sunny horizon. Now, there is a hint of sunshine through the dark clouds, and it is the fact that maybe the Monforts will wise up and realize that last year's remarkable run was a fluke, will likely not be repeated, and is not the foundation for a stable winning structure in the majors. Hurdle and O'Dowd absolutely have to go, and everybody (and I mean everybody) on the roster should be available for the right price as we near the trade deadline. The sad thing is, I think I had a bit of a hangover after last year's run, and I never got into the Rockies at the beginning of the year. Now, it is too late. I don't think I have watched a full game all year, other than the two I went two. I have tried, but this team is almost unwatchable. Thank God for the extra innings package, which enables me to watch quality baseball every day without tuning into the local team.