When to make a run for it

[BigRapidsJackass]

Back on the old board, I started a thread this time last year: when we will compete? By "compete" I meant "when September 1 rolls around, the Rockies are within 5 games of the division lead or within 5 games of the wildcard." I guessed 2009.

Well, they almost made it in 2006. And my answer to the question right now is, "it depends." Mostly it depends on whether they want it. Personally, I think the Rockies best shot is now. Here's why:

2007:

Francis, Cook, and Jennings all signed. BK Kim is an adequate 4th/5th starter. Fuentes signed. Holliday in his prime, and his arbitration salary will not be astronomical. Atkins cheap and in his prime. Helton may not bounce back all the way, but the only sensible prediction I can make is this: Helton's best year over the rest of his contract is likely to be next year. [The hitting dropoff is obvious, but has anyone else noticed that some of the leading defensive metrics all had Helton slip down to the average/slightly below average level last year?] A couple notable holes to fill (CF, SS and C if Tulo and Iannetta aren't ready), but enough talent in enough places to make a run with some minor tweaking (read: another $10 million or so of payroll).

2008:

Jennings gone. Cook next offseaon = JJ this offseason: his walk year. Francis still around. Fuentes probably gone, too. At least 2 of Jimenez/Morillo/Morales/Reynolds had better produce. Iannetta and Tulo should be ready, but Holliday will be much more expensive in his 2nd arb year and Atkins will also be making serious money. If he continues to hit, add Hawpe to the pricey list. Helton a year older. Stewart may be ready; he also may never be ready.

2009:

Cook gone. Francis thrust into the "ace" role unless Jimenez/Morillo/Morales/Reynolds grabs it. Iannetta and Tulo's moment of truth. Holliday's walk year. Expect him to be traded before this season even starts. Atkins also becoming a free agent concern since he can be gone after 2010. Same with Hawpe. Helton now ready to make $20 million a year at the age of 35. Charlie's $80 million payroll goes fast when you add up Holliday/Atkins/Hawpe/Francis. Fowler may be ready; he also may never be ready.

2010:

Holliday gone. Hawpe/Atkins in their walk years. In other words, the current (c. 2007) "core" of Jennings/Cook/Francis/Fuentes and Atkins/Holliday/Helton/Hawpe is probably reduced to Francis and Helton -- and Helton by now is almost surely an albatross. So you've either got a new core of Tulo, Iannetta (both in their first arbitration salary years), Fowler, Stewart, and Reynolds/Morillo/Jimenez/Morales and you're pretty good, or at least half of these guys have washed out due to injury or poor performance.

I can't see how the environment gets any more favorable after 2007. Last year's club was a .500 pythagorean record club, and the path is clear for improvement and a serious run right now.

But Charlie thinks not.

Why??

[rockieprogress]

Why? Because the $10M you state we need is about $10M short of what's needed.

The unknown in your assessment, and I like what you've got so far, is the players we should be getting back for trading away the FA eligibles. With such a large unknown, it leaves us in an all-or-nothing approach to judging the team. IE. the Helton and Francis in 2010 with Todd being an albatross. On the surface, that is true, but who did the Rockies get for trading Holliday, JJ, Atkins, Fuente, Cook?
For an AL team, with lots of pitching, that needs a big bat in the middle of the order, the Rockies might be able to get a #2SP back, along with a stud in AA for Holliday. 2 season later (1 in AAA, rookie in 2nd year) the stud is now the starting 2B.

Look at the A's. Everyone thought that they would be done if they didn't resign Mulder-Hudson-Zito to long-term contracts. Well, they're all gone now, and the A's will probably compete again next year. The only player they've signed to a longterm is Eric Chavez. Our Eric Chavez could very well be Ian Stewart, who knows...

If the Organization had a normal off-season (its gone from the players being on steroids, to the payrolls being on steroids... lol ) and they added $15-$20M in 3-4 players, they would've been able to compete next year. Adding Meche and Eaton this off-season wouldn't have done much, and all the added payroll would've been used.

Its all about timing, and this off-season, the Rockies had extremely bad timing. But tieing the franchises finances up with albatross contracts again is nothing more than revisiting the past. As fans, we shouldn't be willing to support a franchise that keeps making the same debilitating mistake. They appear, on the surface, to have learned from their past mistake.

Have the fans?

Can you go back to Roto, using BigRapidsJackass seems like such a logical title for the Manager.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Y'know, I thought about letting the name BigRapidsJackass go back to being used by/for it's rightful owner, the Pride of Big Rapids, Michigan, Clinton Merrick Hurdle.

But then I thought again: everytime I post some crap on this board, even if nobody reads it, the name BigRapidsJackass on the homepage will serve as a constant reminder of the, well, jackass we have managing our club.

And I like that ....

By the way, you're right about not counting the players we'll get back if we deal guys like JJ, Cook, Holliday, and Atkins before they become free agents.

But I'd kind of like to see a plan here ... not just "we'll spend $80 million someday." If you're shooting for 2008, then you better have a plan for 2008 -- and if you've got a plan to make a run for it in 2008-9, you shouldn't be so scared to sign a quality player to a 2-3 year deal if that's what it takes.

[rockieprogress]

Roto, you have always had the ability to make me actually laugh out loud. LOL doesn't do it justice...

I would be willing to bet "THE PLAN" called for making some FA signings this off-season, and making a serious run at the division next season. Then the rest of the owners had some of Barroids potion, and they went crazy.

Imagine for a second (its not worth more than that...) that you're the braintrust that has a gun to their head, rightfully so, and you go into the off-season needing to make improvements to improve and appease your Boss, and at the first inclination of making an offer to your future stars, the rest of MLB goes on an extreme spending spree. I would've LOVED to have been a fly on the wall in those offices.

They're screwed, and they know it.
The Owner goes to dinner with a columnist and denigrates some of the players you're hoping to build your team around, since plan "A" has now been thrown out, and he single-handedly takes any vestige of loyalty they may have had, and steps on it. Now Plan B is out...

I would say that their PLAN is now limited to about 6mos.
Next Season. With the sole improvement being LaTroy Hawkins.

Now THAT'S funny. I'll bet they have U-Haul on speed-dial...

They need to make a trade for Baldelli in the worst way.

[indianadrew]

"Now THAT'S funny. I'll bet they have U-Haul on speed-dial..."

nice